fri

[fletcher]

kansas-5 double 4*
i think jhawks are in a zone of their own and with duke going down will get them up 1 more step i think they eat ill. alive and cover by 10+

oregon-3.5 5* think they will try to run the horns till they drop this might be a very high scoring game might have an over later.

still looking at wildcats if they keep hitting the shots they could get the win going to watch line movementif i can get a 6 or higher i will play them.

good luck.

 

[Needy]

What do you think about UConn and S. Illinois????? Do you think Maryland gets up more since the Dukies lost???

 

[SmashMouth]

Good luck Fletch
I'm with you on Oregon.

 

[FUZZY NUTZ]

if you can get a 6 or higher on the wildcats will it be a 5*? thank you.

 

[njsammy]

Just wanted to say thanks for all the information you provide and let's go DUCKS!

 

[fletcher]

i would say uconn should do it with the power and better players but everytime i said that when kent has played it has cost me so i am laying off working on totals now,will be playing a few halftimes if there is a play to be made.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I think I've bet against Texas three times this season -- and (predictably) lost all three.

In all honesty, I have not seen the Longhorns play this season, except for a few clips on ESPN. I can't decipher much from the stats and don't trust the write-ups, so I'm coming here to Flether's thread in order to get some helpful advice.

What I want to know is -- do you generally consider Texas a perimeter shooting team or can this team crash the boards and compete with Oregon (which seems vastly under-rated according to the lines on each of their tournament games). It seems Texas wins when they shoot the lights out, but I'm not sure the last two games are a reflection of this team's talent. I'm thinking this is another Kansas-Stanford situation where the cream will rise, which means an easy cover for Oregon. But, I would like to hear from Flether or any Texas backers as to if they think Texas can compete in this game. Once again -- the public just isn't giving the Ducks enough support (anyone want to argue about the Pac-10 versus Big 12 facing each other) here.

All comments welcome.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Phil Turcotte]

Nolan -

I think what I see here is another Gonzaga-esque situation. What I mean by that is people say "This team is soooo good but you just havent watched them because they are on in a smaller market/different time zone/play teams you dont know etc." People were talking about how great and how fired up they would be in their game. On the same token, I have heard so much talk around here about how much people are overlooking Texas, their great defense etc.

Here is one **BIG** point that pushed me to my play on Oregon:

Texas played in Dallas for their first two home wins. I see this as another Pitt situation. An artifically inflated home crowd pumps the team up for wins against BC (a crappy team in my opinion) and Miss St. Texas beat MS by 4 after falling apart in the second half. Well if they do that against Oregon, the ducks will run them into the ground.

Oregon has gone over 90 points 17 times this season. They have 5 players who have over 40 3 pointers this season. FIVE!!! This game will be a shootout from the start.

Also, I dont like freshman handling the rock in pressure situations. I dont care how good you are, look at J. Williams last night, GACK GACK and the free throw line. Put a freshman up there with the game on the line? No thanks.

I see Oregon pulling away in the second half and winning by 8-12.

Play here is <b>Oregon -4</b>

 

[dr. freeze]

Ford is NOT Jason Williams....to me, Williams has very little court IQ and makes horrible decisions.....Ford for the most part is very intelligent......Texas has about 4 guys who can shoot and score but are not necessarily the best at creating their own shots...two really good shooters in Harris and Mouton..that is why Texas needs to run to be effective....and Barnes has already said he will run tonight.....

When game slowed down in 2nd half Texas got in trouble because of this against Miss State.....as far as going to the boards, Texas is not a premeire rebounding team in the big 12 as is OU and Kansas but they do have a couple guys taht can go get it....a key tonight will be keeping big guy on the floor and getting Oregon big guy in foul trouble...should be able to do this by breaking down defense and dishing after big white ogre helps and tries to recover

another key for Texas is that they play great perimeter defense....it is as good a perimeter defense as is OU's -- not as good down low however -- and that should help against Oregon's attack..

Oregon is definitely one of the best teams in the country, but I gotta think the way the Big 12 is rolling it is hard to bet against them. I like how Texas' strength defensively matches up against Oregons perimeter game and also that the Ducks will run for 40 minutes with Texas. I think Texas will wear these guys down in the end similar to what big 12 teams have been doing the whole tournament.

 

[sdf]

Nolan...can you explain what you mean by

"Once again -- the public just isn't giving the Ducks enough support (anyone want to argue about the Pac-10 versus Big 12 facing each other) here. "


are you speaking from a fan standpoint or a betting standpoint?
70% at wagerline are on Oregon. 61% at bigguy. 82% at wagertracker. 4 or 5 people in this thread alone are backing Oregon, including myself.

seems the public is definitely lining up backing Oregon here.
the line hasnt moved much if it all.....


Texas isnt a perimiter team. They do have some shooters..Mouton, Harris and Boddicker have been successful shooting the 3. Ivey and Williams occasionally give shooting support. But lately Texas has been riding a surprising Thomas (a big body and a terrific rebounder) and Erskin on the inside. I think Texas' edge might be in the defense of the guards. Fredie Williams is a superb defender...Ivey and Ford are not bad themselves. Putting Williams on Ridnour or Jones will help to limit Oregon offensively.

Texas also has a great PG in Ford to help create points on the inside and out. Oregon may not be able to stop them. Seems only top defensive teams have been able to (Utah, Indiana, Okla, Okla St).

Texas has seen teams like this (Mizzou and Kansas in particular)
and fared well...beat MU twice (neither game with the home court advantage) and took KU to overtime.

But Texas is also very young. They dont have the offensive firepower of Oregon. I think Oregon has the better coach too.
Texas was helped by the crowd in Dallas....will they get the
same love in Madison? Will KU fans root for the Horns since
they are in the same conference? Will they root for the underdog
as neutral court sites often do? I dont think Oregon will dominate Texas, but they can outscore them.....

I'll line up with the masses and take the Ducks too.....

 

[kevinmac_99]

Nolan.....

Nolan.....

Well let me add my .02 to this.......Not only do I think that Texas can hang but I'm very confident that they will win this altogether....question for you is do you like to teams that play defense? If your answer is no then take Oregon, if it's yes then put a grip on Texas....I have said this over and over again that teams playing in the tourney from the BIG 12 have an advantage over other teams in other conferences due to the amount of quality teams that have to play in conference and undoubtedly paying off.......

Also Nolan I just love when teams have billboard material to play on......The Oregon coach told his players and I quote, "We have more offensive talent, more depth and a better system than UT."

Oregon is def a perimeter team.......Texas rely's more on their Defense to create their offense if that makes sense to you....

Texas travels very well....look who they have played on the road this year.....Also something else to consider which is a fact is that in tourney games at neutral site the fans tend to root for the underdogs........Texas is in a very good position...

GL on whatever you do!

KMAC

 

[DNOMYAR_5791]

Texas is a very physical team like Oklahoma. Oregon has not seen a team that plays defense all the time. Texas has a very versatile game and rebounds very well. Oregon is a perimeter force tempo team. Christofferson is a pussy. Songalia shut him down. Oregon is very good but has not seen defense like this. Sorry my breakdown is not so thorogh but those are my observations.

Good Luck

 

[kevinmac_99]

PLEASE GUYS....

PLEASE GUYS....

All I'm hearing about is this Dallas issue....Get off that because that means nothing to TEXAS....They play very well on the ROAD PERIOD.......Look at their schedule then come talk to me.

KMAC

 

[sdf]

Kevin_mac -

you have to admit that the crowd in Dallas helped Texas.
i'm a diehard Horns fan and know they didnt play as well
at home as they did on the road (wins at BU, TT, OKST, MU...)
but that crowd had to have helped them....



---


and speaking of texas playing defense....they are not in the caliber of Oklahoma.


Arizona 88
Gonz 67
Kansas 96 (110 if you include OT)
Okla 74 (85 if you include OT)
Okla 96
Okla 67
Mizzou 85
Mizzou 70
UNLV 78
CU 95

these are some of the top offensive teams in the nation (minus OU who are good, but not great)...and Texas did little to stop them. The positive side is Oregon plays defense on the caliber of KU, Mizzzou, UNLV and CU...and Texas competed well with all of those teams......


hoping Texas does win...but my money will be on the Ducks..

 

[Phil Turcotte]

I dont consider 500 to be a GREAT team on the road:

Fri, Nov 23 at Gonzaga L 64-67
Sat, Nov 24 at Indiana L 71-77
Sat, Dec 22 at UNLV W 87-78
Sat, Dec 29 at Utah L 61-71
Mon, Jan 14 at Tex Tech W 74-71
Sat, Jan 26 at Baylor W 69-63
Wed, Jan 30 at Kans St L 70-71
Wed, Feb 6 at Texas A&M W 66-52
Sun, Feb 17 at Missouri W 72-70
Sat, Feb 23 at Oklahoma L 78-96
Sat, Mar 2 at Iowa St W 79-76
Sat, Mar 9 at Oklahoma L 51-67

Road record 6-6
Average road loss: 9 points
Average road win: 4.8 points

Average points given up in road loss: 74.8
Average points given up in road win: 68.3

I am not disagreeing with the fact that they are a GOOD defensive team, but they are not great.

Put a team that scores over 90 points in a majority of their games against a team that gives up 75 points on average in their road losses and I will take Oregon.

Just my thoughts.

 

[dr. freeze]

not many teams won at OSU and at Tex Tech this year.....thats for sure.....OU got beat at both places.....

You can't just throw out a number in points as a basis for defense.....Texas plays most of its games in transition, as does Kansas....OU's defense is just in another class this year....how a team can beat Kansas handily shooting 33% is beyond me.....

 

[kevinmac_99]

SHEESH PHIL.........

SHEESH PHIL.........

I said LOOK at TEXAS schedule meaning the TEAMS they played....I didn't know I had to spell it out for you but I guess I do which is all good.....You also need to understand that Texas had to adjust rather quickly with the loss of ONE of the BEST PLAYERS in the COUNTRY......CHRIS OWENS.......Does that name ring a bell to you and anyone else in here? Secondly I said NOTHING about TEXAS being a GREAT road team.....I said the play VERY WELL on the road which is a FACT considering the TEAMS that they play.....Please show me OREGON's road schedule...I can pretty much assure you that it's nowhere close to the competion that TEXAS has had to deal with....Have they even played anyone that plays defense the whole 40 minutes of a game they way Texas does? Apparently you haven't watched too much BIG 12 basketball, I'm just trying to show you the other side of the coin here....hopes this you and others out.....GL!

KMAC

 

[DNOMYAR_5791]

I never said Texas played as good of D as Oklahoma but they are a physical team like the Sooners are. Texas plays better D than anyone in the Pac 10.

 

[Phil Turcotte]

Hey kmac I agree, losing Owens was a big blow.

Just trying to provide some food for the other side of the plate, thats all.

Good luck to you and all tonight.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Nice write-up sdf, very good analysis on both teams.

Nolan, as far as the Pac-10 vs. Big 12 teams:

I'm researching through ESPN and am posting all game results between the two conferences. This picture will of course become clearer after this weekends games (3 matchups)

So here they are...

ARIZONA
11/17 at No. 22 Texas W 88-74
12/1 No. 7 Kansas L 105-97

ARIZONA STATE
No big-12 games

CALIFORNIA
No big-12 games

OREGON
No big-12 games
(NOTE: The above 3 including Oregon had SIMPLE non-conference schedules)

OREGON STATE
11/22 at No. 24 Texas L 78-68

STANFORD
12/1 at Texas L 83-75

UCLA
01/12 No. 3 Kansas W 87-77

USC
none

WASHINGTON
none

WASHINGTON STATE
12/10 at Texas L 79-52

That's all folks. To look at the Oregon schedule, look here. The Link

So the overall record between big 12 v Pac-10 is...

Big 12 wins 4 and loses 2. UT played 4 of the 6 Pac-10 teams and went 3-1.

Will this be any kind of indicator? Doesn't really tell me that much, but is interesting info.