BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 23
L.A. Dodgers at Washington (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Nationals have put together a very profitable stretch (+$565 last 10 days) but don?t kid yourself; this is still a very bad team. Their pitching ranks close to the bottom in the NL (5.91 team ERA) so their fortunes will certainly change before too long. The Dodgers are hitting well (.312 team BA) and they were a big money-maker vs. righties in 2009 (+$955). Livan Hernandez is the only Washington starter who looks sharp, and he?s not expected to take a turn in this series. A good chance to take LA at reasonable prices. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. righthanders.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Mets are floundering once again (3-7, -$495 last 10 days), and things would be worse if not for last Saturday?s 20 inning umpire assisted victory over the Cardinals. It won?t be easy taking on a decent Atlanta team that they fared poorly against last year (only 5-13, -$880 in head to head play). The Braves were a profitable road team in 2009 (+$1205) and despite a low team BA, they are averaging over 5.0 runs per game so far. With Johan Santana not expected to see action, the door is wide open for the visitor to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Braves in all games.
San Diego at Cincinnati (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Reds were surprisingly ineffective against this team in 2009 (only 1-6, -$715) and the Padres do seem to have improved somewhat. They turned a modest profit last year thanks to a late season surge (+$485) and we like what we?ve seen from Kevin Correia (3.12 ERA in three starts), who demonstrating that last year?s numbers were no fluke. Cincy lost money at Great American Ballpark last year (-$605) so take a shot with the visitor at what figures to be a favorable price. BEST BET: Correia.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Astros aren?t hitting very much these days (.214 team BA, worst in the majors), but a visit from the Pirates could be just what they need. They dominated the lowly Bucs in head to head play last year (10-5, +$410) and they were a complete disaster in their road games (22-58, -$2335). So far this year that pattern is holding true (2-4 as visitors), so if Houston?s pitching continues to improve, they can start notching some wins here at Minute Maid Park. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Cubs are getting some decent work from their starters in recent days and they are up against a struggling Milwaukee team (3-6, -$355 with a 6.70 ERA among starters last 10 days) that they got the best of in 17 meetings last season (10-7, +$115). Milwaukee managed to lose a bundle here at Miller Park in 2009 (-$1465) and they?ll have a hard time keeping pace in this very competitive division if they don?t get on track right away. Randy Wells has jumped out of the gate with two solid outings (+$265, 2.92 ERA) and he?s slated to take a turn in this series. We?ll be on board when he takes the mound. BEST BET: R. Wells.
Florida at Colorado (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
This could be an exciting matchup between improving clubs, both of whom could wind up in post-season. The Rockies have a real shot in the NL West, and they rank near the top of the league statistically in both pitching (3.53 team ERA) and at the plate (.268 team BA, averaging over 5.0 runs per game so far). But the Marlins won last year?s head to head series (4-2, +$200) and they?ve made money on the road with great consistency (+$1605 in 2009, +$290 so far this year). We?ll sidestep Ubaldo Jimenez, who?s looked sensational (+$310, 0.86 ERA in three starts), but the rest of Colorado?s rotation is fair game. BEST BET: Marlins unless opposed by Jimenez.
Philadelphia at Arizona (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Phillies are looking very formidable at the plate (.304 team BA) and, but it looks like their two best pitchers (Halladay, 1.13 ERA in three starts & Happ 0.00 ERA in his first two) won?t be on the mound here at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are plodding along at a respectable level, but we still don?t trust them in this ballpark, where they proved to be so ineffective in 2009 (-$1700). We?ll stay away under the circumstances. BEST BET: None.
St. Louis at San Francisco (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
These two teams are loaded with quality starters (Cards 2.48 team ERA, Giants 3.18 ERA, 1st and 2nd in the NL so far), but the Giants are averaging over 6.0 runs per game on offense, and this has been a money-making venue for the home team (+$1665 in 2009). St. Louis is having a much tougher time at the plate (.234 team BA) and this could prove to be a grueling west coast swing. Barry Zito (+$120, 1.86) and Jonathan Sanchez (+$200, 2.19) are both expected to see action, and we like their chances vs. a Cardinals team that averaged only 3.9 runs per game vs. lefties in ?09. BEST BET: Zito/J.Sanchez.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Blue Jays looked sharp until this past weekend, when they dumped all three games of a series with the Angels at Rogers Centre. Now they square off against a sizzling hot Tampa team (9-3, +$655 so far) at Tropicana Field, where they?ve proved to be so dominant. They posted a 28-11 record at home in night games vs. righthanders in ?09 (+$1355 with 6.2 runs per game) and after sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway, this is not a team we intend to take lightly. BEST BET: Rays vs. righthanders in night games.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Red Sox could use a soft target, having dropped to 4-8 (-$695) following a sweep by the Rays at Fenway. A visit from the hapless Orioles will do nicely. Baltimore has opened a dismal 2-11 (-$885) and they only beat Boston twice last season in 18 attempts (-$1320). They were a disaster on the road in 2009 (-$1500) and staff ace Kevin Millwood is not expected to see action in this series. Prices could get high, but the visitor will be fortunate to salvage a single victory. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Detroit at Texas (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
The Tigers are holding steady at 7-5 after two weeks of play, not bad considering how mediocre their pitching has been up to this point. Texas played a sloppy series in New York last weekend and they?ll need to do better if they hope to compete in the competitive AL West. Max Scherzer is off to a terrific start (2.12 ERA) so we?ll back him when he goes. We also like Detroit vs. the Texas lefties, given how well they performed against southpaws in 2009 (29-20, +$630 overall). BEST BET: Scherzer/Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Kansas City (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Twins manhandled KC in head to head play last season (12-6, +$315) and they took 2 of 3 from them at Target Field last weekend. They are in top form right now (+$495) and there?s not much cause for hope for the Royals. Their team ERA is the worst in the league (5.69) and Cy Young ace Zach Greinke has yet to start a game the Royals won (-$320). Minnesota underperformed on the road vs. lefties in ?09, but KC?s rotation is all-righty, and they made a bundle vs. righties on the road (+$1125). BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.
Seattle at Chicago W. Sox (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
We love Chicago?s pitching (3.60 team ERA, 4th best in the AL), so we?re willing to overlook their poor performance at the plate (.216 team BA) as they get ready to host Seattle. The Mariners are still a mystery, and their season depends on a speedy recovery by Cliff Lee. The Mariners have not fared well in day games on the road (9-16, -$610 in 2009) and two of these games are scheduled for the afternoon. BEST BET: White Sox in day games.
Cleveland at Oakland (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The A?s may be back in the mix, if the pitching we?ve seen the first two weeks holds up (2.58 team ERA, best in the AL). What better team to knock around than the Indians, a team that checks in with a .215 team BA. Oakland beat up on the Tribe in 2009 (5-2, +$380 in head to head play) and Cleveland has been a disaster on the road, particularly vs. righthanders (19-39, -$1735 last season). Justin Duchscherer has bounced back nicely, after missing all of 2009 (+$315, 2.41 ERA in three starts). We?ll lay the price when he is on the hill. BEST BET: Duchscherer.
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Always a tough venue for the Yankees, who split 10 regular season games with LA in 2009 (-$200), though they finally got past them in post-season. The Angels pulled close to .500 after sweeping the Blue Jays in Toronto, and they have a couple of hurlers who tempt us in this setting. Ervin Santana was spectacular in a complete game victory in his last start, and Joel Pineiro (2.77 ERA), looked very sharp in New York. Both are expected to see action in Aneheim this weekend. BEST BET: E. Santana/Pineiro.
L.A. Dodgers at Washington (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Nationals have put together a very profitable stretch (+$565 last 10 days) but don?t kid yourself; this is still a very bad team. Their pitching ranks close to the bottom in the NL (5.91 team ERA) so their fortunes will certainly change before too long. The Dodgers are hitting well (.312 team BA) and they were a big money-maker vs. righties in 2009 (+$955). Livan Hernandez is the only Washington starter who looks sharp, and he?s not expected to take a turn in this series. A good chance to take LA at reasonable prices. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. righthanders.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Mets are floundering once again (3-7, -$495 last 10 days), and things would be worse if not for last Saturday?s 20 inning umpire assisted victory over the Cardinals. It won?t be easy taking on a decent Atlanta team that they fared poorly against last year (only 5-13, -$880 in head to head play). The Braves were a profitable road team in 2009 (+$1205) and despite a low team BA, they are averaging over 5.0 runs per game so far. With Johan Santana not expected to see action, the door is wide open for the visitor to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Braves in all games.
San Diego at Cincinnati (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Reds were surprisingly ineffective against this team in 2009 (only 1-6, -$715) and the Padres do seem to have improved somewhat. They turned a modest profit last year thanks to a late season surge (+$485) and we like what we?ve seen from Kevin Correia (3.12 ERA in three starts), who demonstrating that last year?s numbers were no fluke. Cincy lost money at Great American Ballpark last year (-$605) so take a shot with the visitor at what figures to be a favorable price. BEST BET: Correia.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Astros aren?t hitting very much these days (.214 team BA, worst in the majors), but a visit from the Pirates could be just what they need. They dominated the lowly Bucs in head to head play last year (10-5, +$410) and they were a complete disaster in their road games (22-58, -$2335). So far this year that pattern is holding true (2-4 as visitors), so if Houston?s pitching continues to improve, they can start notching some wins here at Minute Maid Park. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Cubs are getting some decent work from their starters in recent days and they are up against a struggling Milwaukee team (3-6, -$355 with a 6.70 ERA among starters last 10 days) that they got the best of in 17 meetings last season (10-7, +$115). Milwaukee managed to lose a bundle here at Miller Park in 2009 (-$1465) and they?ll have a hard time keeping pace in this very competitive division if they don?t get on track right away. Randy Wells has jumped out of the gate with two solid outings (+$265, 2.92 ERA) and he?s slated to take a turn in this series. We?ll be on board when he takes the mound. BEST BET: R. Wells.
Florida at Colorado (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
This could be an exciting matchup between improving clubs, both of whom could wind up in post-season. The Rockies have a real shot in the NL West, and they rank near the top of the league statistically in both pitching (3.53 team ERA) and at the plate (.268 team BA, averaging over 5.0 runs per game so far). But the Marlins won last year?s head to head series (4-2, +$200) and they?ve made money on the road with great consistency (+$1605 in 2009, +$290 so far this year). We?ll sidestep Ubaldo Jimenez, who?s looked sensational (+$310, 0.86 ERA in three starts), but the rest of Colorado?s rotation is fair game. BEST BET: Marlins unless opposed by Jimenez.
Philadelphia at Arizona (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Phillies are looking very formidable at the plate (.304 team BA) and, but it looks like their two best pitchers (Halladay, 1.13 ERA in three starts & Happ 0.00 ERA in his first two) won?t be on the mound here at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are plodding along at a respectable level, but we still don?t trust them in this ballpark, where they proved to be so ineffective in 2009 (-$1700). We?ll stay away under the circumstances. BEST BET: None.
St. Louis at San Francisco (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
These two teams are loaded with quality starters (Cards 2.48 team ERA, Giants 3.18 ERA, 1st and 2nd in the NL so far), but the Giants are averaging over 6.0 runs per game on offense, and this has been a money-making venue for the home team (+$1665 in 2009). St. Louis is having a much tougher time at the plate (.234 team BA) and this could prove to be a grueling west coast swing. Barry Zito (+$120, 1.86) and Jonathan Sanchez (+$200, 2.19) are both expected to see action, and we like their chances vs. a Cardinals team that averaged only 3.9 runs per game vs. lefties in ?09. BEST BET: Zito/J.Sanchez.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Blue Jays looked sharp until this past weekend, when they dumped all three games of a series with the Angels at Rogers Centre. Now they square off against a sizzling hot Tampa team (9-3, +$655 so far) at Tropicana Field, where they?ve proved to be so dominant. They posted a 28-11 record at home in night games vs. righthanders in ?09 (+$1355 with 6.2 runs per game) and after sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway, this is not a team we intend to take lightly. BEST BET: Rays vs. righthanders in night games.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Red Sox could use a soft target, having dropped to 4-8 (-$695) following a sweep by the Rays at Fenway. A visit from the hapless Orioles will do nicely. Baltimore has opened a dismal 2-11 (-$885) and they only beat Boston twice last season in 18 attempts (-$1320). They were a disaster on the road in 2009 (-$1500) and staff ace Kevin Millwood is not expected to see action in this series. Prices could get high, but the visitor will be fortunate to salvage a single victory. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Detroit at Texas (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
The Tigers are holding steady at 7-5 after two weeks of play, not bad considering how mediocre their pitching has been up to this point. Texas played a sloppy series in New York last weekend and they?ll need to do better if they hope to compete in the competitive AL West. Max Scherzer is off to a terrific start (2.12 ERA) so we?ll back him when he goes. We also like Detroit vs. the Texas lefties, given how well they performed against southpaws in 2009 (29-20, +$630 overall). BEST BET: Scherzer/Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Kansas City (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Twins manhandled KC in head to head play last season (12-6, +$315) and they took 2 of 3 from them at Target Field last weekend. They are in top form right now (+$495) and there?s not much cause for hope for the Royals. Their team ERA is the worst in the league (5.69) and Cy Young ace Zach Greinke has yet to start a game the Royals won (-$320). Minnesota underperformed on the road vs. lefties in ?09, but KC?s rotation is all-righty, and they made a bundle vs. righties on the road (+$1125). BEST BET: Twins vs. righthanders.
Seattle at Chicago W. Sox (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
We love Chicago?s pitching (3.60 team ERA, 4th best in the AL), so we?re willing to overlook their poor performance at the plate (.216 team BA) as they get ready to host Seattle. The Mariners are still a mystery, and their season depends on a speedy recovery by Cliff Lee. The Mariners have not fared well in day games on the road (9-16, -$610 in 2009) and two of these games are scheduled for the afternoon. BEST BET: White Sox in day games.
Cleveland at Oakland (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The A?s may be back in the mix, if the pitching we?ve seen the first two weeks holds up (2.58 team ERA, best in the AL). What better team to knock around than the Indians, a team that checks in with a .215 team BA. Oakland beat up on the Tribe in 2009 (5-2, +$380 in head to head play) and Cleveland has been a disaster on the road, particularly vs. righthanders (19-39, -$1735 last season). Justin Duchscherer has bounced back nicely, after missing all of 2009 (+$315, 2.41 ERA in three starts). We?ll lay the price when he is on the hill. BEST BET: Duchscherer.
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Always a tough venue for the Yankees, who split 10 regular season games with LA in 2009 (-$200), though they finally got past them in post-season. The Angels pulled close to .500 after sweeping the Blue Jays in Toronto, and they have a couple of hurlers who tempt us in this setting. Ervin Santana was spectacular in a complete game victory in his last start, and Joel Pineiro (2.77 ERA), looked very sharp in New York. Both are expected to see action in Aneheim this weekend. BEST BET: E. Santana/Pineiro.
