Friday 12/20

Smitty

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hard to believe, but it's bowl season again.

Bahamas Bowl
as someone who loves playing dogs in bowl games, and someone who made some money on charlotte this year, i really expected i'd be betting on the 49'ers in this game. but the more i dig, the more i think the bulls get the win.

while charlotte will be excited for their first bowl game, they already have the same # of bowl wins as UB. so really not a huge motivational edge there.

one factor to consider... i haven't seen an update in a couple years, but coaches in their first season with their team do poorly in bowl games. and will healy may be a good coach, but it's his first year with charlotte.

what this is going to come down to though is UB's ground game. they have not one, but two 1,000 yard runners. and charlotte gives up 191 yards/game on the ground. unless charlotte can open up an early lead, the bulls are going to keep pounding the ball. they are 4th in the country in time of possession and 29th in 3rd down conversions. charlotte's defense is 82nd in the country on 3rd down. UB is going to grind out some long possessions that will wear down a defense that's been enjoying the beach.

UB improved once they switched to vantrease at qb. he's not flashy, but they don't need him to be. he's thrown 7 TD in his 7 starts, but more importantly, only 1 INT.

i'm hoping for a fairly boring game to start bowl season, with UB getting a win on the strength of their ground game and defense.

UB 1st Half (-3) 2 units
UB (-6.5) 5 units
under (52) 2 units

it may be a couple days before i get a chance to dive into the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl (i feel like i made that up). i did just see that jordan love got busted with the whacky tebacky, so i'm guessing the big line movement is based on the assumption that he won't play in the bowl game.
 

jdg226

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hard to believe, but it's bowl season again.

Bahamas Bowl
as someone who loves playing dogs in bowl games, and someone who made some money on charlotte this year, i really expected i'd be betting on the 49'ers in this game. but the more i dig, the more i think the bulls get the win.

while charlotte will be excited for their first bowl game, they already have the same # of bowl wins as UB. so really not a huge motivational edge there.

one factor to consider... i haven't seen an update in a couple years, but coaches in their first season with their team do poorly in bowl games. and will healy may be a good coach, but it's his first year with charlotte.

what this is going to come down to though is UB's ground game. they have not one, but two 1,000 yard runners. and charlotte gives up 191 yards/game on the ground. unless charlotte can open up an early lead, the bulls are going to keep pounding the ball. they are 4th in the country in time of possession and 29th in 3rd down conversions. charlotte's defense is 82nd in the country on 3rd down. UB is going to grind out some long possessions that will wear down a defense that's been enjoying the beach.

UB improved once they switched to vantrease at qb. he's not flashy, but they don't need him to be. he's thrown 7 TD in his 7 starts, but more importantly, only 1 INT.

i'm hoping for a fairly boring game to start bowl season, with UB getting a win on the strength of their ground game and defense.

UB 1st Half (-3) 2 units
UB (-6.5) 5 units
under (52) 2 units

it may be a couple days before i get a chance to dive into the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl (i feel like i made that up). i did just see that jordan love got busted with the whacky tebacky, so i'm guessing the big line movement is based on the assumption that he won't play in the bowl game.

Love the write up. My only concern is backing the MAC in bowl games. Don't have the figures but I recall them being pretty poor against the spread. Best of Luck.
 

bosbabiesarm

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My past records ( memory) Back in the day, MAC & Military Academies use to be good in bowl games. :shrug:
L3 Years MAC 2-15 SU
Utah st. QB love RB, WR all starters cited together for being wrong place at wrong time. :0031
GL Smitty Happy Holidays buddy

Multiple Oklahoma players maybe suspended also.
 
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Smitty

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Love the write up. My only concern is backing the MAC in bowl games. Don't have the figures but I recall them being pretty poor against the spread. Best of Luck.

thank you. and that's a legit concern. the mac sucks. but this looks like a good match-up for the bulls.
 

Smitty

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My past records ( memory) Back in the day, MAC & Military Academies use to be good in bowl games. :shrug:
L3 Years MAC 2-15 SU
Utah st. QB love RB, WR all starters cited together for being wrong place at wrong time. :0031
GL Smitty Happy Holidays buddy

Multiple Oklahoma players maybe suspended also.

yeah, the ol' "wrong place, wrong time" excuse. well, looks like it worked, 'cause they're playing.

GL to you, sir. merry christmas and a very happy 2020.
 

Smitty

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Smoothie Bowl

Smoothie Bowl

unfortunately, haven't had the time to do a deep dive on this game. but this one might not be all that complicated. even with love playing, what a distraction this whole thing has been. especially coming on the heels of a very disappointing season for the aggies. i'm gonna take a (small) shot with my second mac team of the day. but my big play on this game is the total.

kent st 1st H (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5
kent st (ML) 2 units to win 4
over (67.5) 6 units. hard to imagine kent st keeping utah st under 40, and with all the INTs love has thrown this year, kent st may get a couple short fields to work with, which should be enough to push them at least into the 30s. i think the defenses sit this one out.
 

3 putt pete

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I think that your reasoning on the Bulls is on solid footing but I just can't get by the MAC's abysmal recent bowl record.

Also, often overlooked is special teams when capping a game so I feel compelled to let you know that the Bulls have a very poor kicking game. Their kicking and punting net yds were both rock bottom in the MAC and their FG % was close to 50%. It's gotten to the point that they often forego the FG attempt and just go for it on 4th down.

This does bode well for an under play and hope Buffalo gets the cover. If it comes down to a FG late though I suggest a prayer may be in order.

Good luck
 

ejthree

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unfortunately, haven't had the time to do a deep dive on this game. but this one might not be all that complicated. even with love playing, what a distraction this whole thing has been. especially coming on the heels of a very disappointing season for the aggies. i'm gonna take a (small) shot with my second mac team of the day. but my big play on this game is the total.

kent st 1st H (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5
kent st (ML) 2 units to win 4
over (67.5) 6 units. hard to imagine kent st keeping utah st under 40, and with all the INTs love has thrown this year, kent st may get a couple short fields to work with, which should be enough to push them at least into the 30s. i think the defenses sit this one out.

Nice work on the early as expected...I have a nice play on Kent myself gl to us..:0074

Hope you and your family have the happiest of Holidays...:toast:
 

Smitty

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I think that your reasoning on the Bulls is on solid footing but I just can't get by the MAC's abysmal recent bowl record.

Also, often overlooked is special teams when capping a game so I feel compelled to let you know that the Bulls have a very poor kicking game. Their kicking and punting net yds were both rock bottom in the MAC and their FG % was close to 50%. It's gotten to the point that they often forego the FG attempt and just go for it on 4th down.

This does bode well for an under play and hope Buffalo gets the cover. If it comes down to a FG late though I suggest a prayer may be in order.

Good luck

thank you, pete. i tried to reply yesterday, but i was at work and couldn't log in. i actually did see the UB kicker was pretty bad, but had not looked into the punting. i spent an hour on that game alone. the punters may have been the only thing i didn't look at. :)
 

Smitty

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thanks, ox. hopefully plenty more to come.

ej, never a doubt on those golden flashes. :mj07: have a very merry christmas and a fantastic new year. :toast:

thank you, burns' and jdg. can't ask for a better start, that's for sure. we'll try to keep it rolling. i have a ridiculous story that i can't wait to share in my thread today.
 

oxnardca1

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Damn U Smitty...............

U r even GRACIOUS w your acceptance speech awards!!!!!!

Way to GOOOOO!!!!!
 
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