Friday 12/23 Bowl Games

[Smitty]

Independence Bowl

I am really torn on this game. I want to bet against Houston. But this ULL team is not good. I know, I know, mediocre teams often beat unmotivated superior teams. I watched ULL against Southern Miss and was thoroughly unimpressed. And that was WITH Wooldridge, their starting qb. He's out. Fields has been ok, but he takes a lot of sacks. Houston is 36th in the country, with 2.5 sacks/game. And can I really trust a qb named Chandler? What's that you say? The Houston qb's name is Clayton? No, seriously, what's his first name? Ok, this may be the first Clayton vs. Chandler battle in NCAA history.

Ok, maybe some of you aren't reading this for my hilarious humor. Fine. Football stuff. The previews I've seen talk about Houston's great offense but terrible defense and ULL's excellent defense. Well, they are pretty much right about Houston. But a little digging makes me very skeptical of ULL's defense. For one thing, they allow 4 yards/carry, which is 62nd in the country. Not much better than Houston, which allows 4.16. Ok, you say, who cares? Houston doesn't run the ball that much. Well, more than you'd think. They average 30 carries/game. And they have a freshman, Stacy Sneed, who has been really good lately. In his last 3 games, he's run for 274 yards on 25 carries. I'm not going to do the math for you. That's pretty damn good. He missed the last 2 games with a concussion, but as far as I can tell, he's playing today.

ULL's defensive stats may be a little flattered because they avoided most of the good offenses in the Sun Belt East. The only one they played was Georgia Southern. And they held the Eagles to 17 points. Pretty good! But a little digging... GS still had 430 yards of total offense. They just couldn't convert on 3rd down, going 2 of 14. Ok, maybe ULL's defense is just really good on 3rd down? Nope. They allow a 40.7% conversion rate, which is 89th in the country. So they mostly played weak offenses and kinda got lucky against one good offense.

The big question is the weather. It's gonna be damn cold, with a real feel around 6? - 10? all game. With a wind in the mid-teens and gusts in the mid-20s. So I don't necessarily think Houston is going to be able to throw the ball all over the place like they normally do. But between Sneed and Tune (and a couple other serviceable RBs who I hope don't get too many carries), the Cougars should be able to move the ball on the ground.

On the other side, you have the ULL offense, which averages 4.06 yards/carry. Dre'Lyn Washington has been coming on lately, averaging over 8 yards/carry over his last 3 games, including 57 yards on 10 carries against Florida St. But if they fall behind against Houston, they are going to need Fields to make plays, and that's when I expect to see some sacks.

Oh, last bit of info.... this is the first season for ULL head coach Michael Desormeaux. Who clearly got the job because of his last name.

I hate that I've completely flip-flopped on this game. I hate that I'm going to be rooting for a meh Houston team. I hate that I'm going to be rooting for Dana Holgorsen. But... here we go.

Houston (-7) 2 units
Under (56.5) 4 units
1H Under (28.5) 2 units. I just don't see ULL being able to take advantage of that shit Houston defense. And with the weather conditions and, hopefully, a nice lead, Houston will have to tone down the aerial assault.


Bowl Record
Sides: 5-7 0.0
ML: 3-3 +5.9
Totals: 7-7 -1.2

 

[Englishman]

Excellent write up. Thank you.

 

[Smitty]

Thank you, Englishman. :0008

Gasparilla Bowl

(quick note for Jack... your spellcheck does not recognize "Gasparilla". Obviously that is a huge issue and should be addressed immediately. :lol

So usually when the bowl match-ups are announced and the lines come out, I browse through them and generally have an idea what I'll be betting on each game. The 2022 Gasparilla Bowl is an exception to that rule. Side or total. No idea. So let's figure this out together...

Ok, WF was a huge disappointment this year. Well, the 2nd half of the year. On 10/29, WF was 6-1 and #10 in the country. That included a win over Florida St and a double OT loss to Clemson that, if I recall correctly, they should have won. They played Louisville 10/29. WF led at halftime 14-13. Then the 3rd quarter happened. 3rd play of the quarter, Hartman threw a TAINT. Louisville had a 54-yard td run their next offensive drive. Then it got REALLY ugly. Louisville had back-to-back TD "drives" of 9 and and 28 yards after more Wake Forest turnovers. And, STILL IN THE 3RD QUARTER, Hartman threw ANOTHER TAINT, this one 90 yards. 3rd quarter score: Louisville 35 Wake Forest 0. Absolutely brutal. WF turned it over 8 times for the game, including 4 lost fumbles. 9 teams in the country didn't lose 4 fumbles the entire season.

So how did Wake Forest respond? They were favored their next game at NC St, because NC St was down to a freshman qb. Hartman threw 3 more INTs and Wake lost. And it mostly went downhill from there. In fact, Wake was favored their last 5 games and lost 4 SU. The one win was over a Syracuse team that entered the game on a 4-game losing streak. Wake still trailed 21-10 in that game.

(We interrupt this fascinating discussion of the Gasparilla Bowl with a quick update... just noticed the line on Houston has dropped to 6.5. Not a good sign. And I just realized that by the time I post this, they'll probably be in the second quarter.)

How 'bout Missouri? The Tigers have quietly restored some semblance of respectability to the program. Last year they went 6-7 and played in a bowl game. This year, they showed more positive signs, particularly when they only lost to Georgia by 4. In fact, their defense was downright decent. The most points they allowed in an SEC game was 27, in the season finale against Arkansas. Whoops, with one major exception - they gave up 66 to Tennessee. Sometimes these things just happen. We'll allow them one mulligan, as it was the game after Tennessee lost to Georgia.

Time to dig into the numbers. Cook (Mizzou qb) has been ok. He's completed 65.3% of his passes, and averaged 7.5 yards/att. However he only has 13 TDs to go with 7 INTs. And while Mizzou does commit to the ground game (110 more runs than passes), they are workmanlike at best, averaging 4.2 yards/carry. Including Cook, they have 3 guys with over 100 yards rushing this year. All 3 average under 4.5 yards/carry.

Maybe the problem with the WF offense, and this may surprise you, is they don't throw the ball enough. They actually had 3 more rushing attempts this year than passing attempts. And while I fully believe you need to run the ball to win, they are really bad at it. They average 3.38 yards/att, which is 113th in the country.

Wake's run defense is ok. They allow 3.83 yards/carry, which is 44th in the country. Their pass defense is... weak. They allow 7.84 yards/att, which is 107th in the country. But can Missouri really take advantage of that? They don't exactly have a strong passing game, and their top receiver said "see ya, i'm going to Georgia!"

Can Missouri stop the Wake Forest passing game? Well, they allow 7.06 yards/att, which is ok. But if you toss out that Tennessee game... they only allow 6.45 yards.att, which would be 27th in the country. Ok, that's selective data.

Safe to say there is a motivational edge to Mizzou.

Quick drinking game... drink a beer every time one of the announcers says "the thicker kicker." If you've watched any Mizzou, you know what i'm talking about.

Damn near forgot... who ISN'T playing? I continue to struggle to find a source that consistently has updated lists of who isn't playing in these games. One source I've been using showed nobody from Wake was out for this game. Then I found something else that shows they are missing their 3rd leading receiver and 2nd leading rusher. Ok, neither is a huge loss for this Wake offense.

Missouri will be without their top 3 sack guys. They might have been useful in this game.

Fuck, that was a lot of work, and I still feel like this game (and total) is a coin flip. I did forget that they are expecting some winds tonight in Tampa. Gusts in the mid 20s. Well, obviously not betting the game isn't an option.

Wake Forest (-2.5) 1 unit
Under (58.5) 2 units
1Q under (13.5, -120) 2 units. Seems to me, every time I watch Wake Forest, their offense gets out of the gate slowly.