Friday 12/30 Bowls

[Smitty]

Well, my computer picked a fine day to shit the bed. Luckily, I already got a new laptop, but I haven't set it up yet. So I'm doing the best I can, but fucking around with this has me way behind today. We'll see how this goes...

Mayo Bowl

Both teams have good numbers against the pass. NC St is solid against the run, too, allowing 3.5 yards/carry. Maryland gives up 3.9 yards/carry. But NC St doesn't have much of a run game. Their leading rusher, Houston, gains 4.2 yards/carry and, believe it or not, does not have a single rushing TD this season.

For a "dual-threat" qb, Tua Two isn't much of a runner. He averages 0.8 yards/carry.

No idea who is playing qb for NC St. From what I saw of Morris, he's pretty bad, but he ended up putting up solid #s. And Finley was a real spark against NC's crap defense, but struggled against a good Louisville D.

I'm leaning NC St, just because of the better defense. But I hate betting what is essentially a home team in a bowl game. And there's too much uncertainty at the qb position. Maybe both will play, and that usually doesn't work out well.

Under (45.5) 6 units

 

[rocky mountain]

Well, my computer picked a fine day to shit the bed. Luckily, I already got a new laptop, but I haven't set it up yet. So I'm doing the best I can, but fucking around with this has me way behind today. We'll see how this goes...

Mayo Bowl

Both teams have good numbers against the pass. NC St is solid against the run, too, allowing 3.5 yards/carry. Maryland gives up 3.9 yards/carry. But NC St doesn't have much of a run game. Their leading rusher, Houston, gains 4.2 yards/carry and, believe it or not, does not have a single rushing TD this season.

For a "dual-threat" qb, Tua Two isn't much of a runner. He averages 0.8 yards/carry.

No idea who is playing qb for NC St. From what I saw of Morris, he's pretty bad, but he ended up putting up solid #s. And Finley was a real spark against NC's crap defense, but struggled against a good Louisville D.

I'm leaning NC St, just because of the better defense. But I hate betting what is essentially a home team in a bowl game. And there's too much uncertainty at the qb position. Maybe both will play, and that usually doesn't work out well.

Under (45.5) 6 units

Good luck, with new computer and play, thanks!

 

[IX_Bender]

Keep on truckin
Always read the writeups and thanks for the humor.

Looking for just HT plays on my end if youre around.

GL today and tomorrow

 

[Smitty]

Thanks, Rocky Mountain! Love your Oysters, by the way. :scared

Ok, the new laptop defaulted me into Edge, and I was having lots of issues. Just installed Chrome. Let's see if that helps.

Sun Bowl

Well, I absolutely loved Pitt in this game, before all the opt-outs. 8 or 9 starters, I think.

UCLA led the country, averaging 6.08 yards/carry. Pitt's run defense was very solid, allowing 3.22 yards/carry. However, Dennis, by far their leading tackler, is out. As is their 2nd-leading tackler. And at least half of their sacks. If you can't slow down the run, you can't slow down UCLA.

On offense, Pitt is missing their QB, their top RB, and both starting tackles. On the plus side, they are facing the UCLA defense. UCLA's run defense is ok, giving up 3.74 yards/carry, which is 37th in the country. And they allow 7.47 yards/att through the air, which is 90th.

Pitt may not have enough talent left for this to even make a difference, but the 2PM EST kickoff would be an advantage for them. That's 11AM for the west coast boys.

Really don't know what to do with this game. I don't trust UCLA laying this many points. Ok, maybe this is nuts, but let's go with...

Pitt TT over (22.5) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

Thanks, Bender! Unfortunately I usually miss out on HT plays. I almost never watch these games live. It takes too much damn time. For example, I haven't even started watching the Mayo Bowl yet. I'm probably going to work on one more bowl game before I break for lunch and start watching it. So they'll be in the 2nd half by the time I get caught up.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Ok, I don't WANT to like this game. But, fuck, I do. And the line movement is clinching it for me. Normally, there may still be enough public love for ND to drive up this line. But after the beatdown at USC and with Pyne out of the game? Are those diehards hammering the Irish enough to move this line? Seems unlikely.

Plenty of guys missing for this game. Probably hitting ND harder than (the other) USC. Not only is their starting qb out, they are missing their best offensive and defensive players. Mayer, their TE, had 37 more catches than anyone else on the team. And Foskey, who had 11 of their 35 sacks this year, is also out.

USC is also missing some key guys. Lloyd, their RB1, is gone (As far as I can tell. Apparently he scrubbed all his social media of USC references a couple weeks ago. Not a sign of someone who plans on playing today.). There's a big drop off after Lloyd. Also, Pickens, a defensive tackle, has opted out to get ready for the draft.

It sounds like Tyler Buchner, NDs starting qb at the start of the season, is healthy enough to play today. His injury was expected to be season-ending. He is a dual-threat qb, and the injury was to his throwing shoulder, so he may run even more than usual.

Alright, this game boils down to 2 things for me. USC is terrible at stopping the run. They allow 4.85 yards/carry, 113th in the country. ND is a run-heavy offense even without Buchner, led by Audric Estime (5.8 yards/carry) and Logan Diggs (4.8). Not really sure why Diggs is still getting more carries, but they should both get the ball a lot today.

And the second thing... Spencer Rattler is still Spencer Rattler. 16 TDs and 11 INTs. Rough ratio there. He'll make some bad decisions.

ND (-4) 6 units
Under (51) 4 units. I was leaning over, but this # feels like it's begging for over money.

 

[ejthree]

Thanks, Rocky Mountain! Love your Oysters, by the way. :scared

Ok, the new laptop defaulted me into Edge, and I was having lots of issues. Just installed Chrome. Let's see if that helps.

Sun Bowl

Well, I absolutely loved Pitt in this game, before all the opt-outs. 8 or 9 starters, I think.

UCLA led the country, averaging 6.08 yards/carry. Pitt's run defense was very solid, allowing 3.22 yards/carry. However, Dennis, by far their leading tackler, is out. As is their 2nd-leading tackler. And at least half of their sacks. If you can't slow down the run, you can't slow down UCLA.

On offense, Pitt is missing their QB, their top RB, and both starting tackles. On the plus side, they are facing the UCLA defense. UCLA's run defense is ok, giving up 3.74 yards/carry, which is 37th in the country. And they allow 7.47 yards/att through the air, which is 90th.

Pitt may not have enough talent left for this to even make a difference, but the 2PM EST kickoff would be an advantage for them. That's 11AM for the west coast boys.

Really don't know what to do with this game. I don't trust UCLA laying this many points. Ok, maybe this is nuts, but let's go with...

Pitt TT over (22.5) 2 units

Love your write-ups Smitty, top shelf all the way. I have over in this game so as you said hoping no slowing UCLA. BRW my friends played ucla -5 and Tenn +6. Continued success for your bowl extravaganza :SIB

 

[Smitty]

Thank you, EJ. BOL to you the rest of the way.

I'm pissed, because I have some 9-leg parlays that I've hit the first 4 legs of... but I have Pitt at +3.5. So those are almost definitely doomed. The joys of betting some of these games a couple weeks in advance. I really wish these POS that opt out would at least have the decency to do it early. But, you know, that would be the unselfish thing to do.

Really unsure what I'm doing in the Orange Bowl. Clemson may have a decent qb now, which changes a lot for them. But that was against UNC. Maybe he'll look like a freshman tonight.

 

[Smitty]

Arizona Bowl

Sooo... this game is on the barstool sports youtube channel? Yeah, fuck that. Put the fucking game on TV, you assholes. Feel bad for the kids, who know about 20 people will be watching.

What's a compulsive gambler to do? Show discipline and stay off the game? Don't be ridiculous. I already have Wyoming at a PK in some parlays, but I think all those parlays are getting killed by Pitt +3. Again, the joy of betting these games a couple weeks in advance.

Ok, by now pretty much everyone knows Wyoming's top 4 RBs are out of the game. The interesting thing... those are the only 4 RBs that had any carries this year. RB5 (assuming they have one) hasn't had a carry. Any Wyoming had 700 more yards rushing than passing this year. Uh oh.

Well, as feeble as Wyoming's passing "attack" has been, they have found the right opponent! Ohio gives up 297 yards/game (130th in the country!) and 7.94 yards/att, which is 113. So I expect Wyoming to at least attempt several forward passes. And Peasley, who is a dual-threat qb, will certainly run the ball a few times. He averaged 4.7 yards/carry and only 5.7 yards/att throwing the ball. :scared

Ohio is only slightly in better shape after losing Rourke. BIG drop off to Harris.

It's almost kickoff, so let's go with....

Wyoming (ML) 4 units.
Over (42) 4 units. Yes, this is stupid. But I see at least one place where the over just ticked up to 43. Feels just like when the UConn/Marshall total inexplicably went up shortly before kickoff.

 

[Smitty]

oh, almost forgot... the dog is 5-0 ATS in MAC bowl games this year.

 

[Smitty]

Orange Bowl

2 teams that expected to be in the playoffs when they got out of bed the morning of November 5. That day, Tennessee ran into Georgia and Clemson ran into... Notre Dame? Man, Clemson keeps fattening up against that ACC. Anyway, playoff dreams dashed, and 2 backup qbs today.

Milton was the starter for most of the short 2020 season for Michigan. He... wasn't very good, and Michigan was 1-3 when he started. But at least he has experience on the big stage. Klubnik had very small shoes to fill when he stepped into the ACC Championship game. He didn't look like a freshman against a porous UNC defense.

Just found this quote re: Milton.... "Milton is a physically gifted quarterback who lacks accuracy and has a propensity to make wonky decisions."

Milton will be happy not to see Myles Murphy on the other side of the line tonight. Murphy is tied for the Clemson lead in sacks and is projected as the #5 overall pick in the draft.

Tennessee gave up 287 passing yards/game, which is 7th worst in the country. However, a lot of that was because opponents were usually trailing and needed to throw. They "only" gave up 7.24 yards/att, which is 75th. If Klubnik is the real deal, and he may very well be, he could have some success tonight.

Both teams have a capable ground game, and will probably try to establish it to take some pressure off the qbs. However, both teams are solid against the run.

(side note) just saw the UCLA/Pitt score for the first time in a while. Go PITT!!!!!!! Holy fuck. Now I REALLY need Wyoming to win.

Two teams that are very disappointed to be here. I'm betting that Klubnik looks like a freshman now that he's not playing the UNC defense.

I also just noticed the line in the Orange Bowl has dropped again. Probably because of EJ's friends.

Tennessee (+4) 4 units
Tennessee (ML) 2 units to win 3.2
Over (62) 2 units
Tennessee TT over (29.5) 2 units

 

[Smitty]

Updated Bowl Record After 12/29 Games
Sides: 10-10 +10.4
ML: 6-6 +8.4
Totals: 19-54 +8.0

 

[rocky mountain]

Updated Bowl Record After 12/29 Games
Sides: 10-10 +10.4
ML: 6-6 +8.4
Totals: 19-54 +8.0

Incredible again Smitty, highly skilled handicapping! Did you mean 19-14 for your totals, typo?

 

[Smitty]

Incredible again Smitty, highly skilled handicapping! Did you mean 19-14 for your totals, typo?

:mj07::mj07::mj07: whoopsie i think it's actually 19-15 after going 1-1 yesterday. i'll double check.

man, if wyoming hangs on... i may have to start doing some serious hedging. i'll only have 3 legs left in a bunch of parlays.

Updated Bowl Record After 12/29 Games
Sides: 10-10 +10.4
ML: 6-6 +8.4
Totals: 19-15 +8.0

 

[rocky mountain]

:mj07::mj07::mj07: whoopsie i think it's actually 19-15 after going 1-1 yesterday. i'll double check.

man, if wyoming hangs on... i may have to start doing some serious hedging. i'll only have 3 legs left in a bunch of parlays.

Updated Bowl Record After 12/29 Games
Sides: 10-10 +10.4
ML: 6-6 +8.4
Totals: 19-15 +8.0

Sounds exciting, it's got to be a huge payout. Can you hedge with 3 games out ? Get to thinking cause that sounds like real money!

 

[Smitty]

Sounds exciting, it's got to be a huge payout. Can you hedge with 3 games out ? Get to thinking cause that sounds like real money!

so it's 2 parlays and 2 round robins. if i hit everything, it'll be over $21K. not life-changing, but a nice chunk of change. it would have been better, but i had ULL +7 in 3 of the 4, so that's a push. i think i have the same remaining 3 games in all 4. K St +6, Michigan -8, and Tulane on the ML. IF Wyoming hangs on to win... I will definitely hedge tomorrow. Which I don't want to do, because, obviously, I really like K St and Michigan. Hmmmm.... if I hit just 2 of the 3, I'll get at least $1,500 from the round robins.

getting way ahead of myself. wyoming is only up 6. shit, i should hedge right now with Ohio at +120.

 

[Smitty]

and... i was too slow. fuck me. :facepalm:

 

[rocky mountain]

so it's 2 parlays and 2 round robins. if i hit everything, it'll be over $21K. not life-changing, but a nice chunk of change. it would have been better, but i had ULL +7 in 3 of the 4, so that's a push. i think i have the same remaining 3 games in all 4. K St +6, Michigan -8, and Tulane on the ML. IF Wyoming hangs on to win... I will definitely hedge tomorrow. Which I don't want to do, because, obviously, I really like K St and Michigan. Hmmmm.... if I hit just 2 of the 3, I'll get at least $1,500 from the round robins.

getting way ahead of myself. wyoming is only up 6. shit, i should hedge right now with Ohio at +120.

Good luck, hope you maximize your winnings, exciting!

 

[Smitty]

fuck. that'll teach me to get ahead of myself. at least i was able to get some hedges in on ohio after wyoming took the lead. and still having a nice day. let's go volunteers! 63-0!!

 

[rocky mountain]

fuck. that'll teach me to get ahead of myself. at least i was able to get some hedges in on ohio after wyoming took the lead. and still having a nice day. let's go volunteers! 63-0!!

That's right, stay positive , your rolling! opcorn2