yesterday(via the Force): 1-4 -3.9 (IF dang SF can at least hang on)
total BB: 50-42 +8.05 (6.9 swing, the wrong way, if SF bags me)
No bonne chance at all for me yesterday: Pirates blew (very) early lead, Braves lose despite Hampton flirting with a no-no, and the other 2 were basically nowhere-to-be-found.
I have to do a bit of a discount thread, here, as the same BS excuse (time, sleep, etc) comes into play again. I did fully 'cap these, though, so I'm hoping for better results. Mind you, not much that I've hopped on so far, as value looks negligable on most, by what I've got.
Slightly different "discount" thread, but I'm going to include something a bit different (and probably less helpful). I often have a day or two look-ahead at the games, and jot down some numbers that I expect I will produce when I properly 'cap them; these are the 'using the Force' numbers I joke about. I'll put them alongside what I got 'capping, and maybe it will, at least, be a reminder to me to save my money if I'm not prepared to do things properly.
To save additional time, I'm going to have to cheat on providing as many #'s (a fully loaded thread often takes me 3-6 hours to complete, with maybe a short break in the middle). But, next to the starter's name I will include some "+" or "-" (s) to indicate how each has performed vs opposition. I look at both how starter's have performed against opposing TEAM, and further look at how each has performed vs CURRENT PLAYERS. A single plus or minus indicates the starter (in my judgement) has performed a little better or worse vs opponent, "++" will indicate that he has performed quite well vs the opposition, and the max of 3, + or -, indicates that he has dominated or been pounded by the opposition. Again, a starter who has dominated an opponent, but has never faced any of the current players, will not be credited with as much, but still something. The PITCH #'s I post already take into account these vs opponent +/-. Minimal appearances vs will also diminish any +/-, no matter how dominating or pounded.
I've played no totals, for this board so far, as I haven't had time to fully check them out. Generally I look to see if my pitcher ratings, multiplied by 10, give me more or less than my P.OPS. If both teams have a higher or lower #, by any reasonable amount, then I'm often trying them small (not as confident on totals as I was a few years back). Lately I have preferred to consider umpires and ballpark dimensions to take such risks.
PV's are for 'capped #'s ... the Force has cost me plenty.
-----------------------------------
Reds(Graves--)@D'Backs(Dessens)
P.OPS: Reds: 761, D'Backs: 740
PITCH: Reds: 70, D'Backs: 67
--slight edge on offense and pitching for Reds, here, gives me a small advantage for them on the road. Reds 53 (Force54)
Price: Reds +110 (PV +5)
PLAY:
Reds +110
1/1.1
------------------------------------------------------
Chisox(Garland--)@Cubs(Estes)
P.OPS: Chisox: 751, Cubs: 730
PITCH: Chisox: 75, Cubs: 76
--Garland has looked pretty solid this year, while the Cubs must be disappointed with Estes' work. Cubs 55 (Force60)
Price: Cubs -120 (PV even)
PASS
----------------------------------------------------------
Bosox(Kim+, - vs.some)@Phillies(Wolf+, - vs.key)
P.OPS: Bosox: 800, Phillies: 742
PITCH: Bosox: 74, Phillies: 86
--HR trouble about the only thing holding Wolf from a serious Cy Young run. Gotta like Wolf's chances at home, here. Philly 60 (Force55)
Price: Philly -125 (PV +4)
PLAY:
Philly -125
1/0.8
--------------------------------------------------------------
Indians(Tallet)@Pirates(Fogg)
P.OPS: Injuns: 688, Pirates: 724
PITCH: Injuns: 69, Pirates: 72
(sure woulda been nice to know Wells was going to have such a short outing yesterday
--only 5 IP, but did toss 100...Pitt's pen is the pits)
--righties absolutely pounding Tallet (lefty), and Fogg has not looked right lately (long balls galore). Very poor indian bats looking at missing Burks for season. Pirates 62 (Force65)
Price: Pirates -145 (PV +2)
PASS
------------------------------------------------------------------
Jays(Lidle)@Expos(Vazquez-, + vs key, including Delgado 0/8 1K)
P.OPS: Jays: 854, Expos: 709
PITCH: Jays: 72, Expos: 82
--Expos better starter and pen here, but Jays bats have huge edge. Lidle has been off lately; Vazquez always a threat to dominate. 50-50 (Force N/A as Tucker was listed for Expos)
Price is right
PASS
---------------------------------------------------------------------
phew....Giants held on...I can take this paper bag off my head, now!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Since, my friend, you have revealed your deepest fears
I sentence you to be exposed before your peers
(Waters-Pink Floyd-The Wall-The Trial)
total BB: 50-42 +8.05 (6.9 swing, the wrong way, if SF bags me)
No bonne chance at all for me yesterday: Pirates blew (very) early lead, Braves lose despite Hampton flirting with a no-no, and the other 2 were basically nowhere-to-be-found.
I have to do a bit of a discount thread, here, as the same BS excuse (time, sleep, etc) comes into play again. I did fully 'cap these, though, so I'm hoping for better results. Mind you, not much that I've hopped on so far, as value looks negligable on most, by what I've got.
Slightly different "discount" thread, but I'm going to include something a bit different (and probably less helpful). I often have a day or two look-ahead at the games, and jot down some numbers that I expect I will produce when I properly 'cap them; these are the 'using the Force' numbers I joke about. I'll put them alongside what I got 'capping, and maybe it will, at least, be a reminder to me to save my money if I'm not prepared to do things properly.
To save additional time, I'm going to have to cheat on providing as many #'s (a fully loaded thread often takes me 3-6 hours to complete, with maybe a short break in the middle). But, next to the starter's name I will include some "+" or "-" (s) to indicate how each has performed vs opposition. I look at both how starter's have performed against opposing TEAM, and further look at how each has performed vs CURRENT PLAYERS. A single plus or minus indicates the starter (in my judgement) has performed a little better or worse vs opponent, "++" will indicate that he has performed quite well vs the opposition, and the max of 3, + or -, indicates that he has dominated or been pounded by the opposition. Again, a starter who has dominated an opponent, but has never faced any of the current players, will not be credited with as much, but still something. The PITCH #'s I post already take into account these vs opponent +/-. Minimal appearances vs will also diminish any +/-, no matter how dominating or pounded.
I've played no totals, for this board so far, as I haven't had time to fully check them out. Generally I look to see if my pitcher ratings, multiplied by 10, give me more or less than my P.OPS. If both teams have a higher or lower #, by any reasonable amount, then I'm often trying them small (not as confident on totals as I was a few years back). Lately I have preferred to consider umpires and ballpark dimensions to take such risks.
PV's are for 'capped #'s ... the Force has cost me plenty.
-----------------------------------
Reds(Graves--)@D'Backs(Dessens)
P.OPS: Reds: 761, D'Backs: 740
PITCH: Reds: 70, D'Backs: 67
--slight edge on offense and pitching for Reds, here, gives me a small advantage for them on the road. Reds 53 (Force54)
Price: Reds +110 (PV +5)
PLAY:
Reds +110
1/1.1
------------------------------------------------------
Chisox(Garland--)@Cubs(Estes)
P.OPS: Chisox: 751, Cubs: 730
PITCH: Chisox: 75, Cubs: 76
--Garland has looked pretty solid this year, while the Cubs must be disappointed with Estes' work. Cubs 55 (Force60)
Price: Cubs -120 (PV even)
PASS
----------------------------------------------------------
Bosox(Kim+, - vs.some)@Phillies(Wolf+, - vs.key)
P.OPS: Bosox: 800, Phillies: 742
PITCH: Bosox: 74, Phillies: 86
--HR trouble about the only thing holding Wolf from a serious Cy Young run. Gotta like Wolf's chances at home, here. Philly 60 (Force55)
Price: Philly -125 (PV +4)
PLAY:
Philly -125
1/0.8
--------------------------------------------------------------
Indians(Tallet)@Pirates(Fogg)
P.OPS: Injuns: 688, Pirates: 724
PITCH: Injuns: 69, Pirates: 72
(sure woulda been nice to know Wells was going to have such a short outing yesterday
--only 5 IP, but did toss 100...Pitt's pen is the pits)--righties absolutely pounding Tallet (lefty), and Fogg has not looked right lately (long balls galore). Very poor indian bats looking at missing Burks for season. Pirates 62 (Force65)
Price: Pirates -145 (PV +2)
PASS
------------------------------------------------------------------
Jays(Lidle)@Expos(Vazquez-, + vs key, including Delgado 0/8 1K)
P.OPS: Jays: 854, Expos: 709
PITCH: Jays: 72, Expos: 82
--Expos better starter and pen here, but Jays bats have huge edge. Lidle has been off lately; Vazquez always a threat to dominate. 50-50 (Force N/A as Tucker was listed for Expos)
Price is right
PASS
---------------------------------------------------------------------
phew....Giants held on...I can take this paper bag off my head, now!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Since, my friend, you have revealed your deepest fears
I sentence you to be exposed before your peers
(Waters-Pink Floyd-The Wall-The Trial)
