Friday August 24th 2007
yesterday: 10-5 +12.45
August: 162-129 +79.76
ml 67-40 +44.35
rl 8-8 -0.36
totals 36-21 +15.63
parlays & IFs 51-60 +20.14
system picks still 39-19 in August (67%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-0 yesterday; 44-29 in August (60%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
sd 57% (+103)+7
Cin 51 (-130)-6 fla 49 (+122)+3
Mets 51 (-110)-2
pitt 64 (-102)+13
atl 57 (-133)-1
Col 52 (-145)-8 wash 48 (+137)+5
cubs 52 (-102)+1
Sf 54 (-114)even
min 60 (-176)-4
nyy 55 (-140)-4
Tb 53 (-128)-4
clev 56 (-166)-7 Kc 44 (+158)+5
(1)bost 72 (Beckett-Garland)
seat 56 (-125)even
tor 51 (+100)+1
(2)bost 64 (Schilling-Danks)
system totals
pitt@Hou ov9 67% (-126)+11 --ump N/A
wash@Col un9.5 65 (-110)+12 --ump N/A
nyy@Det un10 72 (-102)+21 --ump N/A
oak@Tb un9 67 (-109)+14 --Bell is a decent UNDER-ump (always high K%)
tor@Laa un8 65 (-105)+13 --Gibson an over-ump (always low K%); kills this one
Made money on sides, totals and IF plays (push at #7 and push at #4) Thursday.
Good stuff. Thursday's haven't been my best.
Smokin!...Smokin!...Cookin' tonight just keep on tokin'!
Friday's, on the other hand, I've owned lately?
Eight of the sixteen sides are 55% or less today, so I likely take it easy there.
Pirates are the only system pick until they open the Bosox lines. Albers is major fade material, right now, while Snell has been pretty good; Pirates 7-day OPS over .900 while Astros 7-day OPS is under .700?'nuff said?Pirates look real good, here. Even at a -200 the Sox will get the system call in game #1 and I'll likely try the runline at -120 or better. Second game will be tougher, though not due to Danks but to Schilling; I might try that second game at up to -140, but it would only be a system pick at -130 or better.
The only other side with any real value (save the doggies?Marlins, Nationals and Royals) appears to be the Padres. Maddux is super-sharp, right now, while Moyer was hit real hard in his last; Phillies 7-day OPS at the usual high (.824) but Padres 7-day number is also right up there (for a change; .802); add in the fact that the Padres OPS vs L is about 80 points higher than they are vs R and I think that the visitors have a good chance to open this series up with a victory. Line isn't terribly attractive, mind you, with the Phillies 25-18 at home vs righties (.581...actually less than I figured) (Padres 10-11 on the road to L (.476)).
All over calls yesterday but there's 1-4 on my list today. Minute Maid over looks okay with Albers starting, and the 'Stros middle relief pretty much garbage (same with the Pirates), but Snell may keep the Astrosticks tame as they've been for weeks now, anyway; I like the Pirates so will likely pass on that one. I'm on that Coors total as the Rockies are in a bit of a funk at the plate (7-day OPS down to .714 after being near .900 a few days back), Hill looks sensational, and Francis should do his part to help, too; Nats OPS about 60 points higher vs L than R, and their 7-day figure is respectable (.777) so they have a real chance to take this one, behind a strong game from Hill. Back tototals?that Comerica game I'm trying under, as well, as the Tigers 7-day OPS is a mere .705 and the Yanks OPS is about 100 points lower vs L than vs R; just need Miller to have something, here, to bag this one; 10 is a high figure for Comerica. Just added that Tampa Bay game under to my repetoire (sic?); D'Rays high numbers vs lefties concerns me a little, but their 7-day OPS is a measley .547 and DiNardo may have regained his solid early-season form, judging by his last (very nice) effort; Shields looks pretty good lately, too, but he hasn't been going deep, lately, and the D'Rays crappy pen could mess this one up; ump Bell helps, though he's actually 12-12 on totals this season; A's 7-day OPS of .800 another concern, here. Jays game under was a thought until I saw who's umping so I think I'll pass; Weaver has been nothing spectacular lately and Halladay is coming off of a 125-pitch effort so I don't know if he'll go more than, maybe, 7 here; still might be worth a shot as Jays OPS vs R is down at around .720 while their 7-day OPS is at .657; Angels 7-day at .780 and they're certainly capable of putting up big numbers at home.
After 7 am. Guess this is ready to roll.
Will post what's played. Today I'll just wade.
GL
yesterday: 10-5 +12.45
August: 162-129 +79.76
ml 67-40 +44.35
rl 8-8 -0.36
totals 36-21 +15.63
parlays & IFs 51-60 +20.14
system picks still 39-19 in August (67%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-0 yesterday; 44-29 in August (60%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
sd 57% (+103)+7
Cin 51 (-130)-6 fla 49 (+122)+3
Mets 51 (-110)-2
pitt 64 (-102)+13
atl 57 (-133)-1
Col 52 (-145)-8 wash 48 (+137)+5
cubs 52 (-102)+1
Sf 54 (-114)even
min 60 (-176)-4
nyy 55 (-140)-4
Tb 53 (-128)-4
clev 56 (-166)-7 Kc 44 (+158)+5
(1)bost 72 (Beckett-Garland)
seat 56 (-125)even
tor 51 (+100)+1
(2)bost 64 (Schilling-Danks)
system totals
pitt@Hou ov9 67% (-126)+11 --ump N/A
wash@Col un9.5 65 (-110)+12 --ump N/A
nyy@Det un10 72 (-102)+21 --ump N/A
oak@Tb un9 67 (-109)+14 --Bell is a decent UNDER-ump (always high K%)
tor@Laa un8 65 (-105)+13 --Gibson an over-ump (always low K%); kills this one
Made money on sides, totals and IF plays (push at #7 and push at #4) Thursday.
Good stuff. Thursday's haven't been my best.
Smokin!...Smokin!...Cookin' tonight just keep on tokin'!
Friday's, on the other hand, I've owned lately?
Eight of the sixteen sides are 55% or less today, so I likely take it easy there.
Pirates are the only system pick until they open the Bosox lines. Albers is major fade material, right now, while Snell has been pretty good; Pirates 7-day OPS over .900 while Astros 7-day OPS is under .700?'nuff said?Pirates look real good, here. Even at a -200 the Sox will get the system call in game #1 and I'll likely try the runline at -120 or better. Second game will be tougher, though not due to Danks but to Schilling; I might try that second game at up to -140, but it would only be a system pick at -130 or better.
The only other side with any real value (save the doggies?Marlins, Nationals and Royals) appears to be the Padres. Maddux is super-sharp, right now, while Moyer was hit real hard in his last; Phillies 7-day OPS at the usual high (.824) but Padres 7-day number is also right up there (for a change; .802); add in the fact that the Padres OPS vs L is about 80 points higher than they are vs R and I think that the visitors have a good chance to open this series up with a victory. Line isn't terribly attractive, mind you, with the Phillies 25-18 at home vs righties (.581...actually less than I figured) (Padres 10-11 on the road to L (.476)).
All over calls yesterday but there's 1-4 on my list today. Minute Maid over looks okay with Albers starting, and the 'Stros middle relief pretty much garbage (same with the Pirates), but Snell may keep the Astrosticks tame as they've been for weeks now, anyway; I like the Pirates so will likely pass on that one. I'm on that Coors total as the Rockies are in a bit of a funk at the plate (7-day OPS down to .714 after being near .900 a few days back), Hill looks sensational, and Francis should do his part to help, too; Nats OPS about 60 points higher vs L than R, and their 7-day figure is respectable (.777) so they have a real chance to take this one, behind a strong game from Hill. Back tototals?that Comerica game I'm trying under, as well, as the Tigers 7-day OPS is a mere .705 and the Yanks OPS is about 100 points lower vs L than vs R; just need Miller to have something, here, to bag this one; 10 is a high figure for Comerica. Just added that Tampa Bay game under to my repetoire (sic?); D'Rays high numbers vs lefties concerns me a little, but their 7-day OPS is a measley .547 and DiNardo may have regained his solid early-season form, judging by his last (very nice) effort; Shields looks pretty good lately, too, but he hasn't been going deep, lately, and the D'Rays crappy pen could mess this one up; ump Bell helps, though he's actually 12-12 on totals this season; A's 7-day OPS of .800 another concern, here. Jays game under was a thought until I saw who's umping so I think I'll pass; Weaver has been nothing spectacular lately and Halladay is coming off of a 125-pitch effort so I don't know if he'll go more than, maybe, 7 here; still might be worth a shot as Jays OPS vs R is down at around .720 while their 7-day OPS is at .657; Angels 7-day at .780 and they're certainly capable of putting up big numbers at home.
After 7 am. Guess this is ready to roll.
Will post what's played. Today I'll just wade.
GL
