Friday August 31st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday August 31st 2007

yesterday: 5-7 +2.26
August: 204-175 +83.22
ml 92-58 +55.33
rl 9-10 -0.46
totals 42-32 +4.38
parlays 61-75 +23.97
system picks 3-0 yesterday; 54-25 in August (68%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 0-1 yesterday; 55-40 in August (58%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 51% (-162)-11 hou 49 (+154)+9
Wash 55 (-117)+1
phil 66 (-125)+10 RL 53 (+125)+8
Atl 67 (-145)+7 RL 51 (+153)+11
Mil 70 (-163)+8 RL 56 (+126)+11
cin 56 (+145)+15
col 60 (+104)+10
lad 51 (+114)+4 (Wells-Ledezma)
Sd 55 (Cassel-Wells) (-120)even
Bost 77 (-220)+8 RL 63 (-107)+11
Clev 72 (-167)+9 RL 57 (+129)+13
Nyy 69 (-235)-2 RL 55 (-120)even
Tor 67 (-117)+13 RL 52 (+175)+15
(1)Min 79 (-173)+15 RL 65 (+121)+19
det 51 (+119)+5
Laa 57 (-186)-9 tex 43 (+178)+7
(2)Min 58 (-140)-1

system totals

sf@Wash un9 69% (-130)+12
mets@Atl un8.5 67 (+111)+19
lad@Sd ov9 70 (-109)+17
tb@Nyy ov10.5 69 (+104)+19


System picks went a lovely 3-0 for Thursday. Good stuff. So why do I only clear 2 units? Freakin' Mets bagged me again and the Padresticks did their usual thing, too. Stupid bet of the day was that D'Backs team total under the 3 runs?oops?I guess that Young's Petco era might elipse 1 after that fiasco. I guess that I should be happy to end the losing streak at 1 day, so whatever?

Eight calls at higher than 65% today. Lots of them look tasty, but I'm going to spend a little more time digging deeper so as to eliminate any unwarranted juice from my repetoire. I'll likely comment further as darkness envelopes.

Totals might bring me back in, today, after taking a much needed break from them yesterday. Both unders listed look worthwhile, and the Yankees might top that total all by themselves, today. Boomer is a tough call, right now, and Petco is a dangerous park for over-players, but both teams prefer lefties and get (fairly) soft ones here.
Padres prefer playing AWAY from Petco, is seems, as they just faced a lefty (D.Davis) who shut their arse(s) down.
To hell with the Padres already, Mike...let's get that focus on to Friday...

Let's close out this fine month strong, shall we?

Will post all games. The Padres are lames.
GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Remember yesterday I commented on how I think NL calls are coming in more than AL calls?

AL calls went 5-0 on Thursday.
NL calls looking at a 2-3 Thursday.

Maybe I'll have to analyze the stats better and see if I'm out-to-lunch or what (on the NL over AL theory...I'm probably "out-to-lunch" about most other things).

Don't mind the AL sweep.
That's where the system picks were, Thursday.

Rock n' Roll!

:SIB

 

[Frankie Cash]

Young really dropped the ball today. Looks like the Padres will be taking the last train to "bite me " town.:shrug:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

OMG are there ever a ton of system picks today.

phillies
Braves
Brewers
reds
rockies

Red Sox
Indians
Blue Jays
(1)Twins

I think that 9 has got to be the most, for one day, this season.
Been 5 and 6, I'm pretty sure (maybe even a 7), but never quite this many.

I've got to budget this carefully and try to be selective. Going to be tough. I'll likely include all of them in some fashion...Bosox, Indians and (1)Twins might be best on the runline as they are all quite expensive. I've got runline calls of over 60% for the Sox and the (1)Twins, so they've got a good chance to pummel their opponent in those, while the Indians at 57% for the cover isn't too bad.

This will be a very busy evening for me.
Really looking to make this month end right.
Might set myself up for a pounding, if I'm not careful, but I think that I've got to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities today.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

quick boo at team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

giants un4.5 -130 (-7)Redding 0-3, 6.75 era vs the G-men so this could be dumb; Giants 7-day OPS .807 which further dismisses this one
--have Nats at -6

phillies ov5.5 +100 (+15)looks like easy money...Mitre has been pounded over his past 3 starts; Phillies 7-day OPS .872
--have Marlins at -2

mets un4 -110 (-14)Hudson has chucked 2 solid games vs Mets already in '07, plus Mets OPS vs R is about 60 points lower than vs L; still could be tricky as Mets can score, as we all know (not that they plated much at hitter-friendly Citizen's Bank...save for that final game...Mets 7-day OPS down to .689)
--have Braves at -2

Brewers ov5 -110 (+9)Armas is pretty brutal; Brewers 7-day OPS at only .721 but should pick up at home
--have Pitt at -4

reds ov5 +125 (+9)Reds 7-day OPS .930 and Reyes isn't a good candidate to keep them quiet today; moneyline looks worthwhile as Shearn looked quite good in his last (his 1st)
--have the Cards at 0 as their 7-day OPS is down to .658

D'Backs un5 -140 (-11)Jimenez is looking quite fabulous and the price remains cheap for him; D'Backs 7-day OPS only .630 and their 16 runs over the past 7 days is the lowest in MLB (won't include Thursday, where they plated 8 and certainly raised that OPS number some; production was likely hurt during the trip to Petco...D'Backs OPS at home is about 90 points higher than on the road); moneyline much more attractive as Livan is not having one of his finer seasons (looked good in his last, though)
--have Rockies +2

orioles un4.5 -155 (-7)O's 7-day OPS at .776; too pricey as when Wakefield DOES get hit, he gets hit hard; other options look better for this game
Bosox ov6 +115 (+15)Liz doesn't look like anything special; Bosox 7-day OPS at .891; 7 should score the runline--not much more expensive--so I think that's the better way to go

chisox un4 -105 (-10)Carmona tossed one crappy game vs the Pale Hose already in '07 so this is another risky proposition; Meche has poor numbers vs opponent, too, making the Indians a viable play in some way, shape or form; Chisox 7-day OPS a lowly .643...might go up some at hitter-friendly Jacob's
--have Indians at +5; Indians 7-day climbing, currently up to .791

Yankees ov6 -115 (+18)highest figure of the day as Sonnanstine (who was beaten on by the Yanks is their only meeting this season) is bordering on fade material and he's a righty to boot...Yanks OPS vs R near .850 which is the highest in MLB...Yanks OPS at home about 75 points higher than on the road; Yanks 7-day OPS down to .732 but I think that they should produce lots in this next series as the D'Rays bullpen is pretty bad; think I need to get me some of this one, but I'll have to consider it vs the -120 runline currently available
--have D'Rays at +5 as Hughes has been shaky and D'Rays 7-day OPS a healthy .910 PLUS they've scored the most runs in MLB over the past week (ESPN...2nd is the Bosox, 7 runs behind)
--over DOES look good for this matchup, doesn't it?

mariners un4.5 -120 (-7)M's 7-day OPS down at .695 and vs R is about 50 points lower than vs L; Marcum will give this one a chance and Jays pen has been superb lately; moneyline, for a comparable price, seems much smarter as the Jays are 15-4 at home to lefties (.789)
--have Jays at +5...7-day OPS only .681 but their OPS at home is about 30 points higher than on the road and about 120 points higher vs L than vs R

Angels ov5.5 +100 (+8)Padilla has poor numbers vs Angels and Angels OPS at home about 120 points higher than on the road; Angels 7-day OPS at a healthy .830 (homestand is helping)
--have Rangers at +4 as they're better vs lefties and have a 7-day of .751 (chit...was up near .900 just a few days back)
--this is one match (of the few) that I might keep away from


That's the goods.
Mostly better options elsewhere but I'll likely try that Yanks over somewhere. Bosox and Phillies overs look good, too, but none of the unders (Mets and D'Backs sorta) look too hot.

This is going to be one VERY interesting day.
I might have the most action that I've had all month, and if you've been following me at all then you know it's going to be heavy.
May the good grace of the gods be forthcoming.

:SIB

 

[Theboundbook]

Take all 9 in a little 20 dollar parlay and hit it today for around 300 to 1!!!! You deserve it!


(maybe a 5 dollar 9 team round robin with all mixes from 9 teams down, (who knows how many bets that is)

(Im curious to find out what a 9 team Round Robin would cost with 9 teams, 8, etc at 5 bucks each)

Anyone remember the computation and calculation equation for that?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

took that in a "sequences & series" math course way back but damned if I remember any of that now.
just sticking to the simple math, if I can help it.
the math with my system is totally simple.
need a calculator, though, to assess lines for value (though a chart, or by memory, would suffice...e.g I know that -120's have a 55% break-even point, -125's a 56%, etc....can't remember them all but takes 2 secs with a calculator:
cost
------- %.............= break-even point
total return

e.g.
120
------ (would be a -120 line) % = 54.54%
220

I always round those figures up (don't want any "artificial" value).

I am playing a number of parlays, today, but I haven't tried anything over 2 games...yet.
I'm going to be in pretty deep for Friday.
Don't know how much precious coin I want to risk on a super-payout.
I've got a number of IF plays going--I think that they kick ass over parlays, for sure (at least you can get something out if you hit 6 of 9 e.g.).

Ramble On
Now's the time. The time is now.
(LZ)

Got 22 plays in already so I think I might take a break and 'cap Saturday's games.
Try and do Sunday, too.
Will give me an idea if anything might compare to Friday's killer board...I kinda doubt it.
I'm in LOVE with today's board.
I might propose if the Twinkies take their opener.

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

on pounding the early Twins contest

on pounding the early Twins contest

against:
--Garza 0-3 in 4 starts at home this year; he was handled by the Angels, Indians, and later Mariners; only his 1st at home was any good where he shut down the Tigers but lost 1-0
--rematch of an August 9th game (@KC) where Davies outduelled Garza to win 1-0
--Davies has pitched well in 2 of his 5 starts as a Royal, though the club is 1-4 over those starts
--Garza 6.91 era over past 3 (whip 2.02)

for:
--Royals 7-day OPS at .628
--Twins 7-day OPS at .882
--Royals hitting .246 last 10 vs R
--Twins hitting .321 last 10 vs R
--Davies an era of 5.76 while in the NL (Braves)
--Davies an era of 7.48 in 5 as a Royal
--Davies an era of 9.75 over his past 3 (2.25 whip)
--Garza season era 3.16
--Garza 3-game total inflated due to horrid game vs M's; the other two were good & decent and the Twins won both of those
--In 7 of 9 Garza starts the opposition has scored less than 4 runs


The question is not whether or not to pound this game but HOW MUCH to pound it for.

this info doesn't change anything:
Royals 21-22 in game #1 of a series
Twins 18-25 in game # of a series
KC bullpen era of 3.45 (1.60 past 3)
Twins bullpen era of 3.24 (1.69 past 3)
Twins still have the bullpen edge, I would say.
They're also at home.
Royals 28-36 on the road (.437)
Twins 35-30 at home (.538)
Kc, still without key bat Sweeney, recently lost Teahen to an injury.
Twins might be withouth Mauer...again (missed the past 4 due to hammy).

ROI
Twins 79% (-173)+15
-173 is 57.8 cents on the dollar
79 x 0.578 = 45.662
21 x -1......= -21
------------------------------------
......................24.662%

Rock n' Roll!

The offensive differential and the big SP mismatch (in my humble opinion) have me totally sold on this one. I'm playing the moneyline but don't know whether I want to jack that up or try some on the runline. It seems silly to start of an IF play with the Twinkies (unless I'm using other afternoon games, I guess) as I can cash a Twinkies play and then do whatever with the cash (more properly, "figures" (as opposed to ca$h)()).

I've already got this one on a number of parlays.
Don't want to go too mental.
21% (give or take) is still 21%.:scared


:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[FINZ2LFT]

Take all 9 in a little 20 dollar parlay and hit it today for around 300 to 1!!!! You deserve it!


(maybe a 5 dollar 9 team round robin with all mixes from 9 teams down, (who knows how many bets that is)

(Im curious to find out what a 9 team Round Robin would cost with 9 teams, 8, etc at 5 bucks each)

Anyone remember the computation and calculation equation for that?

Here was a website with a calculator I found.

edit link for rival site:admin

Looks like a RR 2x with 9 teams at $5 each would cost $180.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

system picks

phillies -125 3.75/3
Braves -145 2.9/2
Brewers -163 3.26/2
reds +145 1/1.45
rockies +104 3/3.12
Red Sox -1.5 -107 2.14/2
Indians -167 2/1.2
Blue Jays -117 3.77/3.23
(1)Twins -173 6.92/4

totals

tb@Nyy ov10.5 +104 1.5/1.56

2-teamer
--sf-Wash un9
--(1)Twins ml
+174
0.55/0.95

2-teamer
--phillies ml
--(1)Twins ml
+173
0.55/0.95

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Indians ml
+163
0.57/0.93

2-teamer
--Brewers ml
--Red Sox ml
+129
0.65/0.85

2-teamer
--Brewers ml
--Yankees ml
+123
0.67/0.83

2-teamer
--Brewers ml
--(1)Twins ml
+146
0.61/0.89

2-teamer
--Red Sox ml
--Indians ml
+126
0.66/0.84

2-teamer
--Red Sox ml
--(1)Twins ml
+122
0.67/0.83

2-teamer
--Indians ml
--Yankees ml
+121
0.68/0.82

2-teamer
--Yankees ml
--(1)Twins ml
+117
0.69/0.81

12-team IF bet
1.Nationals -1.5 0.5/0.85
2.Braves 0.75/0.5
3.phillies 0.65/0.5
4.Red Sox -1.5 0.84/0.7
5.reds 0.75/1.05
6.Blue Jays 1.5/1.2
7.rockies 1.3/1.3
8.Indians -1.5 1/1.2
9.(1)Twins -1.5 2/2.1
10.Brewers 3.4/2
11.tigers 2/2.2
12.tb-Nyy ov10.5 3.3/3
0.5 to win max.16.6 (this one sweeps and I'm buying)

13-team IF bet
1.mets-Atl un8.5 0.78/0.82
2.Red Sox -1.5 0.6/0.5
3.reds 0.5/0.7
4.phillies 0.91/0.7
5.Blue Jays 0.62/0.5
6.rockies 0.78/0.78
7.(1)Twins -1.5 0.8/0.84
8.tb-Nyy ov10.5 1.1/1
9.tigers 1/1.1
10.Brewers -1.5 0.8/1
11.Nationals 1.2/1
12.Indians 2.1/1.2
13.astros 1/1.43
0.78 to win max.11.57

12-team IF bet
1.Brewers -1.5 0.5/0.58
2.phillies ov5.5 0.52/0.52
3.Blue Jays 0.65/0.5
4.Yankees over6 0.57/0.5
5.Braves 0.75/0.5
6.(1)Twins -1.5 0.6/0.63
7.rockies 1.05/1
8.Red Sox -1.5 1.2/1
9.Indians 1.4/0.8
10.reds 1/1.28
11.astros 1.31/1.87
12.tigers 1.68/1.94
0.5 to win max.11.12

12-team IF bet
1.Indians -1.5 0.5/0.6
2.(1)Twins -1.5 0.5/0.53
3.rockies 0.52/0.52
4.Yankees over6 0.8/0.7
5.Braves 0.9/0.6
6.Brewers -1.5 0.8/1
7.Red Sox -1.5 0.9/0.75
8.Blue Jays 1.5/1.2
9.tigers 1/1.1
10.reds 1.5/2.1
11.astros 1.6/2.29
12.Nationals 1.38/1.16
0.5 to win max.12.55

13-team IF bet
1.tigers 0.6/0.66
2.Blue Jays 0.62/0.5
3.Brewers -1.5 0.5/0.63
4.Indians -1.5 0.5/0.6
5.Braves 0.9/0.6
6.(1)Twins -1.5 0.7/0.74
7.phillies 1.3/1
8.rockies 1.17/1.17
9.Red Sox -1.5 1.8/1.5
10.reds 1.5/2.1
11.Nationals 2.4/2
12.tb-Nyy ov10.5 2.2/2
13.astros 1.5/2.15
0.6 to win max.15.65


Tempted to actually go more on some of these but I'm going to wait and see if my early game comes in first. Twins in the first is my key game today while I've got 8 others that I'll be following closely also. Got some IF and parlay action with a couple of the system totals but only trying that Yankees game over straight-up; that one looks real good and I might pump up the jam on it later if I'm in alright shape. Might get bold with some others with an early hurrah but I might just count my blessings and stash my cash.

After all?Saturday's board looks like it could be a winner, too.
I'll wait until they open the lines but I might toss a word in here on just what I think about them (the lines).
Might actually add in some 2-day parlays, as I'll have some BIG numbers for tomorrow's games but the oddsmakers will likely give us biG lines. Escobar over Volquez looks to be about the safest.

Today would be a good day for limited surprises.
May your shock reward you.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

:mj16: !@%#!:mj16:


Fine...I've gotten over it.
Guess I'm looking just to hold my own today, instead of kicking some butt.
Still lots of night action coming.
That's 4 straight shit starts for Garza at the Metro.
Guess I shoulda caught on at 3.
:mj13:


Not much I can do weed: ), so I'm just hoping for a whack of night hits.

Done Saturday (and Sunday, for that matter).

Lines are open and here's what I'm looking at:

Probable/possible system picks in:
phillies
giants
Brewers (and runline)
Padres
Twins if they win the nightcap (maybe:com: ) (and runline)
Angels (and runline)
tigers

some value also to be had with rockies and Jays, by my numbers.

Looking at 5 system totals:
2 overs:
Milwaukee & Minnesota
3 unders:
Washington, San Diego, Oakland

I'll probably have numbers up between 10 and 11, or so.
Maybe post 'em sooner if I'm in a particularly jaunty mood.

Hopin' for the best.
:mj09:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

first 9 outs NYY has one lone hit off of Cy Sonnanstine.
those 3 shutout innings dropped his era to 6.18

I got the over so WTF:com:


:00hour Jays

:00hour phillies

at least I've got that...it seems...

(and:weed: )

a very nice sativa

helping me forget about Garza...

...somewhat:com: ...

c'mon Yankforkers...let's cash some

catch ya later

:SIB