Friday August 3rd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday August 3rd 2007

yesterday: 0-0
August: 2-6 -6.04
ml 1-3 -3.66
rl 0-0
totals 1-2 -1.88
parlays 0-1 -0.5
system picks 0-1 yesterday; 1-4 in August
system totals 0-2 yesterday; 0-5 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 60% (-139)+1
Pitt 60 (-135)+2
hou 55 (-110)+2
Wash 61 (-104)+10
Atl 63 (-154)+2
Mil 57 (-145)-3
Sd 53 (-121)-2
Lad 51 (-145)-9 ariz 49 (+139)+7
Tor 67 (-203)even RL 52 (+106)+3
Nyy 69 (-256)-3 RL 55 (-125)-1
Det 60 (-130)+3
Tb 55 (-117)+1
Min 52 (-140)-7 clev 48 (+132)+4
Oak 53 (-107)+1
Seat 51 (+100)+1

system totals

mets@Cubs un8? 72% (N/A)
col@Atl un8.5 65 (+101)+15
bost@Seat ov9 65 (-120)+10


Maybe August would be a good month for me to take off. Lookin' that way early.
Only ones that interest me for Friday are the Nationals and the Tigers.
Might look a little deeper. Might try the Mariners, too.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I'm near the end and I just ain't got the time
And I'm wasted and I can't find my way home

(Blind Faith,Can't Find My Way Home)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

cards un4.5 -120 (-5)
col un4.5 -125 (-9)
Lad un4.5 -140 (-6)
tex un4 -135 (-12)
Nyy ov6 -105 (+10)
clev un3.5 -115 (-10)
Min un4 -130 (-12)
bost ov4.5 -120 (+7)
M's ov4.5 -105 (+6)


Cards face a hot Redding in a pitcher's park; moneyline is cheaper.
Halladay 1 good, 1 poor vs Rangers this season.
Yanks over looks safe almost every day; OPS much lower vs lefties but Perez is 0-2, 9.26 era vs the Yankees.
Twins-Injuns likely stays low for 5 or 6, but I could see them ruining an under in the late innings.
Bosox-M's over looks good; side is a tough call so I don't know about the team totals; leaning M's, myself.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit.

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit.

PLAYS

system picks

Nationals -104 1.04/1

other picks

Cubs -139 1.39/1
Pirates -135 0.86/0.64
astros -110 1.05/0.95
Jays -1.5 +106 0.8/0.85
Nyy -1.5 -125 1.66/1.34
Tigers -130 1.95/1.5
Mariners +103 0.6/0.62

totals

col@Atl un8.5 +101 0.8/0.81
rockies under 4.5 -125 0.62/0.5
clev@Min un7.5 -116 0.69/0.6
bost@Seat ov9 -120 0.6/0.5

2-teamer
--Jays ml
--Nyy ml
+108
2/2.16

2-teamer
--rangers under 4
--Yankees over 6
+260
0.5/1.3

12-team IF bet
1.Brewers -1.5 0.5/0.73
2.Nyy -1.5 0.65/0.5
3.bost@Seat ov9 0.65/0.5
4.Tigers 0.7/0.5
5.Jays -1.5 0.6/0.63
6.Cubs 0.84/0.6
7.Pirates 1.05/0.75
8.astros 1.15/1
9.Nationals 1.1/1
10.d'backs 0.8/1
11.col@Atl un8.5 1.15/1
12.clev@Min un7.5 1.2/1
0.5 to win max.9.21


System numbers, for the most part, can kiss my ass today.
I'm Using The Force for Friday.
It's worked for me before.

I really don't feel like spending the next half-hour trying to justify these picks, so you can either agree with them or laugh at them. Not too much juicy-fruit, here, so if I can go better than .500 then I have a good chance to make some coin. Losses by the Jays, Yankees or Tigers will be the only ones to make me scratch my head in disbelief. System totals are due to hit something so I'm trying both that are available; I won't be conscious when they finally open the Wrigley total, but I'd love to play it under.

Rather than talking about these picks, I'll spend the time taking a look at Saturday.
Could be 11 of 15 games 'capped at 60% or higher, so there might be some good pickin's once they open the lines. Yanks (Hughes-Davies) will be in the low 70's, and we should see a better line than today's; Davies will want to make a good impression on his new team, but the Yanks have just been mauling right-handed pitching lately; Hughes tossed a beauty then went on the DL?hard to say what he brings here, but, either way, the Yankees should score at least 5 for him which should be enough. Everything else will show much lower probabilities. Mets (Maine-Lilly) should provide a reasonable line; anywhere near even money and you can call me "hoppy". Marlins (Mitre-Jennings) face a currently struggling SP and, despite having a struggling SP going themselves, they'll have some value in the -120 to -130 range. Braves will have a smoldering Hudson going against the freshman Jimenez, but I think that the only value to be found in the line they provide us will be with the youngster; the under might be worthwhile, especially if the Braves score less than 5or6 on Friday, for a change. Give me a decent line for the Phillies (Hamels vs Suppan or Bush) and I'll be all over it. Dodgers (Lowe-Hernandez) probably won't have any value. Jays (Marcum-Loe) should be cheaper than today, and the SP's going will force me to take the Jays or pass; Jays get 4 or less, today, and I'll be hesitant to tackle a big line. See my post ("Indians Laffey?") to find out more about the 22-year-old lefty for the Indians; he's been great at Triple-A Buffalo but I think that Garza is hard to go against right now; under 10, for me, if we see that number. Angels (w/Escobar) face a really struggling Blanton (5 straight dog starts, I believe?5+ er each time) and at -130 or better I'll be leaning heavily towards Kelvim and the gang; Angels pull of the victory with Moseley, today, and it will only look better. Any kind of reasonable line for the D'Rays (Kazmir-Burres) and I'll be all over it. Bosox (Matsuzaka-Washburn) might be worth a shot with a ceiling of -130; again, I'll be swayed by the outcome today. Everything else will be in the 50's; Chisox (Vazquez-Bonderman) might be worth a try if they're monster dogs.

For totals, both the Turner and McAfee games might be system unders while Florida, Milwaukee and New York might be system overs, though I think that the Phillies team total over might be a better go than the game over as Hamels has been outstanding lately.

Signing off for now.
May The Force be with you.

 

[emmitt]

remember a jedi can feel the force flowing within him.......