Friday Bowls

[Smitty]

i've been saying this for 20 years now, and one day i'll listen to myself... trust my 'gambler's intuition'. somehow i just knew ucla was going to lay an egg last night, and yet i still played them.

independence bowl

UL Monroe (-7) 1 unit. here we go again... sunbelt team with a huge motivational edge laying a td to a mediocre mac team. hopefully the warhawks can take care of business, unlike the hilltoppers. everybody knows monroe's story - 4 losses - two to auburn and baylor, 1 the game browning got hurt, and 1 the game browning missed. when he came back, he picked up right where he left off, completing 56 of 72 passes for 542 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT in 2 games.
monroe is playing in their first bowl game since moving to D1 in 1993. that's right, i still call it D1. they will be fired up for this game. on the other side of the ball, ohio lost their last 3 games and 4 out of their last 5 after a 7-0 start. after beating penn state to open the season, here's a list of the teams ohio beat:

new mexico st
marshall
norfolk st
umass
buffalo
akron
eastern michigan

they didn't have 2 of the best mac teams (northern ill and toledo) on their schedule, and they lost to the other 3 decent teams in the conference (ball st, bowling green, and kent st).

monroe is the better team, with a lot more momentum and motivation.

under (60) 1 unit. ok, i'm listening to my gambler's intuition. i expect ohio to run the ball. a) because that's what they do and b) they'll want to keep browning off the field. monroe's run defense has been solid. on the other side of the ball, i like frank solich with 5 weeks to prepare. he'll figure out a few things to slow down browning a little.

 

[Smitty]

Russell Athletic Bowl

Russell Athletic Bowl

why don't they just call all of them "the cash grab bowl"?

virginia tech (-2) 2 units. ugh. i'm usually the last guy to play on the 'more talented, but underacheiving' team. but the talent gap is so huge here. rutgers is, at best, a very mediocre team. and they still had every chance to represent the big east in a bcs game, but couldn't beat louisville with a crippled teddy bridgewater. they may not be any happier to be playing in the RA bowl than va tech is.
the first thing you think of when you think of rutgers is their defense. but i'm going to break this down just like i broke down the cincinnati defense yesterday.

again, this is the national ranking in scoring offense of rutgers' opponents:

96
104
89
118
60
85
33
87
47
72
47

they have played one offense in the top 45 in the country. that was kent st. which won at rutgers. granted, va tech and logan thomas had an incredibly disappointing season and only ranked 78th in scoring offense. so maybe they won't be able to take advantage of an overrated rutgers defense. but i'm counting on rutgers having a letdown and making logan thomas look like he did last year.

another factor - kyle flood was left off the list of first year coaches in bowl games. maybe because he was promoted from the staff at rutgers? so maybe the trend doesn't apply. but this is the first time he's been the head coach for a bowl game.

 

[Smitty]

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Meineke Car Care Bowl

minnesota (+13) 1 unit. ok, playing another hunch. i can't give you a strong reason for playing the gophers. even the obvious stat, minnesota's 11-ranked pass defense, is probably a result of playing in the big 10. but tech comes in here limping, losing 4 of their last 5 games (0-5 ATS). and the relatively low total tells me that someone in vegas doesn't expect tech to run up the score in this game. some way, somehow, minnesota drags them down into a big ten-type game.

i'm sure i don't need to remind anyone, but this is a matchup of that classic 2006 insight bowl, won by tech in OT, 44-41. oh yeah, minnesota led that game 38-7 midway through the 3rd quarter before blowing the large lead ever in a bowl game.

under (55.5) 1 unit. see above.

 

[fla]

Same page today and I have no idea why I took the Gophers either.

:shrug:

Good luck.

 

[Smitty]

thanks, fla.

well, about the only thing i got right about the first game was that solich had his defense ready to play.