Friday Forays - Stats & plays

[Randercity]

Houston at CHICAGO

Great pitching matchup in CHICAGO with OSWALT going up against LIEBER. Both do great during the day, and in this situation. HOU is 7-1 when OSWALT pitches on the road, and CHI is 13-2 when LIEBER is on the hill at home. OSWALT is on fire right now, going 5-0 with a 0.77 ERA in his last five, while LIEBER is only 2-3 with a 6.06 ERA. However, both of LIEBER's wins did come at home, although he got hit hard in HOU his last time out on 9/23 giving up 8 hits, 3 BB, and 4 ER in 5 innings. OSWALT missed a start after leaving a game early in SF on 09/18, so he's making his first start in almost two weeks, and only his 2nd since 09/09. He's only pitched 2 innings in the last 20 days...

• HOUSTON is 24-17 in day games this season
• HOUSTON is 12-7 in September games
• HOUSTON is 39-27 when playing against a team with a winning record
• HOUSTON is 15-8 when playing on Friday
• HOUSTON is 49-30 vs. division opponents
• HOUSTON is 70-51 vs. RH starters
• HOUSTON is 53-39 after a win
• CHICAGO is 39-33 after a loss
• CHICAGO is 45-41 in day games
• CHICAGO is 7-12 in September
• CHICAGO is 42-33 vs. division opponents
• CHICAGO is 40-42 when playing against a team with a winning record
• CHICAGO is 15-9 when playing on Friday
• HOUSTON is 25-13 in games against CHICAGO CUBS over last three seasons
• HOUSTON is 13-3 AT CHI over last 3 seasons
  and 21-6 AT CHI since 1996
• OSWALT is 0-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.167
• LIEBER is 5-4 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.124

So... what does all this mean??? Well, the temp in CHICAGO is 55 with a windchill of about 42. Pretty cold for baseball... the wind is blowing at 16 mph, but I'm not sure if that is in or out, hopefully someone else knows. IF the wind is coming in, I'd say the UNDER is worth a look. IF blowing OUT, it's a definite OVER. CUBS BP has been terrible as of late, so if LIEBER leaves early, it's bad news for CHI. I'm going to wait and confirm the wind before making a selection, but I'm leaning to playing HOUSTON at this point, although CUBS late rally last nite may inspire them today.

 

[Big_Mack]

I'm going with the Cubbies.... Small play...

 

[Randercity]

There are several huge MONEY OVERLAYS today and I'll list them here. What I mean by that is, How a team has fared in today's situation over the course of the season based on a $100 per unit play. Such as HOU on the road vs RH starter, and CHI at home vs RH starter, etc.... Any difference of 1000 is significant.

HOU +1620 Diff 1565
CHI +55

Phil -260
FLOR +1415 Diff 1675

Mont +675 Diff 3175
CINC -2500

NYM even Diff 2885
ATL -2885

Pitt -1900
STL +1035 Diff 2935

Tor +1395 Diff 1505
TBAY -110

Other games that came close...

Milw -525 Diff 965
COLO -1490

S.D +850 Diff 755
S.F. +95

CWS +475 Diff 745
K.C. -270

Bos +55 Diff 800
DET -745

These can all be found here listed under NL BREAKDOWN - AL BREAKDOWN, another useful site listed under RESOURCES to the LEFT!
http://www.nss.net/Fastfact/FF.htm#FAST

[This message has been edited by Randercity (edited 09-28-2001).]

 

[wigs]

wonder how many innings oswalt will go. that could make or break the total. i thought with the wind chill that perhaps oswalt coming back from a groin pull would result in him throwing less innings today, but that is purely conjecture. that is such a low total for a good hitting team like houston. that is probably why i try to find things that will help me play the over. however i might end up passing unless the wind direction is confirmed....

 

[Ace1]

Exprienced Wrigley cappers:


I got NNE at 16 mph

Does that translate wind in or out?

 

[gsp]

The wind is in from left. The over is 6-2 when the weather is like today, 4-0 when the wind is 16 mph or more. Also, Oswalt was tagged for 4 runs in 6 innings the last time Barron was behind the plate. Just something to think about. Good luck

 

[ddubs]

This is the time of the year where the winds in Chicago swirls around and changes direction every few minutes. The same happened in last night's game. It blew in, out, left to right, right to left, you name it, it happened. Be careful

 

[ddubs]

Now it's blowing straight in from center.

 

[gsp]

I found this interesting. The teams +1000, all the dogs are on you dog thread, only one fav is playing one of your dogs. You have one fav playing a + team (Cubs) and a situation I don't know how to read. A big loser (Atl and also a fav) playing a dog that has only broke even. Are you useing these stats in figuring your dogs. If not, I think they might be a big help in narrowing the dogs down.

 

[Randercity]

gsp... actually no, I don't. Today is the first day it's turned out like this, so we'll see. Unfortunately, I haven't charted the +/- every day to be able to determine how it's done. I could probably figure it out by going back thru my stats, and I may do just that. I do know when I've tried narrowing down the dogs based on this stat it hasn't worked. I also tried eliminating a dog that had lost more than 3, or a dog facing a HOT team (HOT team being one that is 7-3 or better in last ten, or 6-4 in last ten but having won 3 straight) and that didn't work. Granted, these were just simply one particular day's trial, so I think the analysis is best done at season's end, when I can throw different variables in and see the results over the last 2.5 months. Myself, I'm playing the WHOLE dog system from here on out and seeing how it does. I've yet to see it have a "bad" week, losing more than 3 units, so I don't think I should get hurt using it. In fact, I WISH I had been using it this WHOLE TIME!

It sure is alot easier for me, time-wise, and I don't have to worry about who's sitting out, who's behind the plate, if my STARTER leaves early on my -180 FAV, etc... Just plug the numbers, get the DOGS and look for the best lines. I've already played em all today, and may cost myself a little by not waiting for lines to go up, but I don't mind. If they win more than four of nine, I'll be smiling just the same.

After re-reading your comment though GSP, I'm not sure what you're referencing now. Only 2 DOG plays, METS and FLOR are on that list, and actually TOR is AGAINST one of my dogs. MONT is a dog, but not a play in my system, and HOU and STL are favorites. The METS have a huge DIFF because ATL is so inept at home vs RH starters. METS merely breakeven on the road vs LH for the season, but they've faired much better lately.

 

[Never Caught Up]

Actualy, guys, I would read this just the opposite, but I'm 70 contrarian anyway. If you have an imbalance of over 1000 I would read that as a correction is due. Like I have said in previous posts I believe these imbalances average themselves out over long perriods of play.

That said, lets see what happens if we reverse these plays. We can tally this up at the end of the night.

HOU +1620 Diff 1565
CHI +55

Phil -260
FLOR +1415 Diff 1675

Mont +675 Diff 3175
CINC -2500

NYM even Diff 2885
ATL -2885

Pitt -1900
STL +1035 Diff 2935

Tor +1395 Diff 1505
TBAY -110

 

[gsp]

Rander, the way I see it, there would be two solid plays. This is taking only your dog system and the above stats into account.

Fla and Stl

We'll see what happens. Good luck

 

[Randercity]

Here's what I'm playing...

FLOR +130
METS +130
STL -180
LA +190
S.D. +175
MINN +160
BALT +1.5 +110
TBAY +145
KC OVER 9.5
DET UN 9
TEX +115
OAK +120

That's it... sorry folks, got plans with the wife so I'm gone til morning... good luck in whatever you play!

 

[Randercity]

TROMBLEY is trash!!!!
I can't believe this guy gets paid to be a MAJOR LEAGUE pitcher! He's terrible... They should change his name to TREMBLEY, cause that's how DODGER FANS and BETTORS get whenever he starts to warm up! MAN, I've said this from day one, HE SUCKS! HE wasn't even good enough to pitch for BALTIMORE for crying out loud! And to make matters worse, earlier today I was recycling newspapers and the Sports Section of the paper on that infamous day that LA traded for him and MULHOLLAND just happened to fall out. My wife picked it up and says, "Honey, isn't this the guy you're always complaining about??" And I go WHO?? "Right here... that TROMBLEY guy?" And she shows the paper to me! His picture and all! The headline read, "DODGERS GET RELIEF FOR PENNANT RUN" What a joke~! I hated the trade then, and I hate it more now. They traded away their best setup guy in MIKE FETTERS who's doing fine in PITT. I mean, they have had to use up most of their BP in starter's roles, due to all the injuries, but still... it's so sad to watch nite after nite as a starter gives them seven solid only to leave and have the floodgates open. Maybe next year, but I doubt it... they're gonna probably lose PARK and ADAMS, and who knows if ASHBY, DREIFORT, and BROWNIE can ALL make it back. What looked like the best rotation in baseball, now looks like alot of expensive spectators...

 

[Randercity]

BTW... 6-6 on the nite +1.40 Units

Yes, LA screwed my nite by losing that lead and then the game in the 11th. They win, it's up 4.30 Units. Oh well, should have put THEM on the run-line with their BP.