Friday June 15th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday June 15th 2007

yesterday: 3-5 -2.89
June: 89-87 -8.69
ml 39-31 -9.01
rl 6-9 -7.66
totals 36-24 +16.95
parlays 8-23 -8.97

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

sd 53% (+131)+9
Clev 79 (-218)+10 RL 66 (+100)+16
cws 55 (-120)even
Balt 63 (-150)+3
det 57 (-113)+3
sf 51 (+127)+6
Nyy 56 (-164)-7 mets 44 (+156)+4
Tor 75 (-240)+4 RL 61 (-115)+7
Cin 54 (-136)-4
fla 54 (+104)+4
seat 62 (-127)+6
Min 57 (Baker-Bush)
tb 58 (-109)+5
Oak 68 (-181)+3 RL 53 (+132)+9
Lad 61 (-120)+6

system totals

ariz@Balt un8.5 66% (-120)+11
mets@Nyy un9 69 (+100)+19
seat@Hou ov8 75 (-130)+18
mil@Min ov10? 73 (n/a)
stl@Oak un7 79 (+111)+31
laa@Lad un8 70 (+105)+21


I'm going to keep plugging away with these numbers; I'm using all up-to-date stats and I think my ballpark adjustments, bullpen assessments, and other modifiers are all ideal this season. Interleague has been instructive in a number of ways (e.g. Orioles totally suck; I didn't play them vs Nats?too expensive?but had them rated at 60% or higher for each game of the series; Tigers pitching is pretty poor behind Verlander and Bonderman; A's and Padres doing it all with pitching, this campaign). Totals have really picked up the past 4-6 weeks, so a drop-off in system side ass-kicking isn't the end of the world. Sides went 5-6 yesterday, following an 8-6 Wednesday. My sides have been fade material for the past week or so, but fade at your own risk this weekend; system numbers are going to start recovering very soon. I'm banking on it.

Today's board has many sides with moderate value. A few totals interest me as well. I know that the Astros aren't hitting much, this year, but I'm amazed that we're getting so many 8's at Minute Maid Park; M's really handling lefties this season (OPS .785) and have a good chance to raise Rodriguez's home era here (2.75); Felix hasn't been so hot, lately, so a few scores by the Astros is likely. I still like the M's to win. Indians, Jays and A's are all monster calls on the board; I want some action on these 3 in some way, shape or form.

Will be back to post a couple of winners later; maybe even a loser or two.
Stay Tuned.
:weed:
GL
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Seems that the wrath of the gods got a punch on the nose and it started to flow......

Seems that the wrath of the gods got a punch on the nose and it started to flow......

PLAYS

padres +131 0.5/0.66
Indians -1.5 +100 2/2
Orioles -150 1.2/0.8
tigers -113 0.69/0.61
giants +130 0.76/1
Jays -1.5 -115 1.15/1
mariners -127 1.67/1.33
d'rays -109 0.65/0.6
A's -1.5 +132 0.6/0.79
Dodgers -120 0.84/0.7

ariz@Balt un8.5 -120 0.6/0.5
mets@Nyy un9 +107 0.93/1
m's@Hou ov8 -130 0.91/0.7
mariners over 4.5 +100 0.7/0.7
stl@Oak un7 +111 0.7/0.77
cardinals under 3 -130 0.65/0.5
laa@Lad un8 +112 0.6/0.67

2-teamer
--Indians ml
--Blue Jays ml
+106
1.88/2

2-teamer
--Indians ml
--A's ml
+127
1.57/2

2-teamer
--Indians ml
--Dodgers ml
+167
0.59/1

2-teamer
--Orioles ml
--A's ml
+158
0.63/1

2-teamer
--Blue Jays ml
--mariners ml
+153
0.65/1


Time to change course directions. Let's see if I can do so with this assault.
Even if I go 0 for 22 there's still one game I'm definitely going to be on for Saturday; anxiously awaiting the line. I think everything else will be too expensive tomorrow. I can't really fuss with totals until they open.

Here's hoping I can at least hit a lucky 13 of these 22. 14 or 15 would be delicious.

See you tomorrow.
GL

:SIB

?..I think I might be sinking.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Almost finished

Almost finished

return on investment breakdown for high % 2-teamer
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--Indians ml 79%
--Blue Jays ml 75%
+106 (59%)+10 Value Indicator

59 x 1.06 = 62.54
41 x -1.....= -41
----------------------------
..................21.54%

That's pretty good.
I've mentioned before that anything over 20% is very good.
A +10 Value Indicator on a 59% play; makes sense it would be good.

I just hope the Nationals cool off, here.
Halladay either hit or miss since DL stint.
Jays OPS vs lefties a healthy .809. They should be happy about returning home, too, and getting the Big Hurt back in the lineup at DH.
Nats OPS vs righties at .676.
'Nuff said.

A hot Sabathia against a (likely) shaky Carlyle I shouldn't have to comment on. Of course I will, anyway.
Braves OPS vs lefties has dropped to .736 from it's May-ending .758. A lot of that has been due to their best hitter (c.Jones) being out. He's back now but will probably need a few games to get his rhythm back. Braves pen has been decent, and will likely be needed here.
Indians OPS vs R .805. OPS is .837 at home.
Indians bats didn't look phenomenal in their series with the Marlins. They're another team that should be happy to get back home and use such to rejuvenate it's offense.
Indians pen has been solid, and should only be needed for a mop-up role in this one. Sabathia has been paricularly stellar his past two starts, throwing a complete game shutout against the Royals at Jacob's and then tossing 9 shutout innings at Cincinnati (8 hits allowed over 18 innings; the Reds won in his last start, 1-0 in 12.).
Sabathia is 6-0 in 8 home starts with a 2.72 era.
The Indians have won all 8 of Sabathia's home starts.
The Indians are 12-2 in Sabathia's 14 starts this season.
I can see the Indians dropping the last one, against a hot Harang in Cinci, where the Reds are smoking the ball this year (though not in this 1-0 game), but I'll be stunned if they drop this one.
By the way, Sabathia threw 112 and is going on 4 days rest. He's a horse; I think he'll be okay here.

I'm toast.

Go Tribe!
Go-go gadget Jays!

:SIB