Friday June 1st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday June 1st 2007

yesterday: 1-3 -0.88
May: 180-144 +51.40
ml 106-66 +37.40
rl 10-11 -0.97
totals 45-39 +4.15
parlays 19-28 +10.82
system picks now 82-43 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 63% (-165)even
sd 78 (-225)+8 RL 65 (-131)+8
lad 65 (-145)+5 RL 50 (+112)+2
Phil 53 (-133)-5
Mets 54 (-126)-2
Mil 59 (-145)-1
Hou 60 (-196)-7 stl 40 (+183)+4
Col 56 (-134)-2
Clev 62 (-153)+1
nyy 54 (-109)+1
Tor 63 (-139)+4
Tb 70 (-191)+4 RL 56 (+115)+9
Laa 68 (-184)+3 RL 54 (+124)+9
Oak 54 (-127)-2
Seat 66 (-155)+5 RL 51 (+140)+9

system totals

ariz@Mets un8 78% (-120)+23
min@Oak un8.5 79 (+100)+29
cin@Col ov11 66 (+101)+16


Glad I took it easy yesterday. Hit the high # with the Jays at 68%, but it looks like the Angels might be going down tonight, meaning a miss on a 67% (at least I didn't play it; too expensive; thank-you linesmakers?saved me some money).

The Twins Slowey, going in Oakland, has been dynamite in the minors this season; I'm kind of expecting a decent showing from him today; could play under, if Kennedy can get his shit together (totally stunk at Baltimore, in his last).

Peavy comes in with a starter rating of 93; that's the highest I've had ANY starter at for any point in time during the season; his only trip to RFK (in 2005) resulted in a complete game shutout of the Nats. Moneyline is pricey; probably try the runline, here, as Padres enjoy hitting lefties (OPS .758) while the Nats bats are weak (OPS .654 vs R). Nationals playing best ball at home a bit of a concern, but Padres have been road warriors for years, now. Somehow Chico is 3-0 in 5 starts at home (era 4.74), but that should change here.

D'Backs@Mets looks like a promising under, also. Mets much worse vs righties (OPS vs R .747 while vs L it's .864); D'Backs .749 vs righties; Shea a nice pitcher's park; Webb only 1-6 in 8 vs Mets, but with a solid 2.59 era?he's 1-1 with a 0.43 era in 3 starts at Shea! (21 IP, 14 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 21 K); Maine 1-0, 1.50 era in 1 start vs D'Backs.

That's it for now. Gonna update a few things and then think about some plays.
Be back to post plays and whatever else seems interesting.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

You know...the %'s that I come up with have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with any opening lines.

Yet, the system generally seems to keep picking favorites.

Favorites picked straight across the board, today, even at Fenway, where it's almost a pick 'em.

Picked a couple of dogs with marlins and D'Rays on Wednesday, but dog calls are rare.

I don't know what to make of it, really.

I think dogs WIN more than my system calls them to.

One trick, I suppose, is to stay away from favorites when the dog DOES win (obviously), and maybe that's where the value rating helps...don't play those 55% favorites at -120.
(-120 breaks even at 55%)

I wish there were more dog calls.
Houston woulda been nice yesterday; they were due for a win...and at home to a pretty shitty team (Reds); system forked me with a 62% call on the Reds, assuming Williams would continue to struggle and that Arroyo would right himself.

Holy f---, am I getting into wasting time here, or what?



:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[thisisbad]

LOL judging by the amount of people readin, don't think you wastin any time. I always check in, love early thread and good info, thanks man

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, thisisbad.

-----------------------------------------------------------

It's amazing how much I'm beginning to loathe the runline; up about 50 units for the year, but a loser on the runline in both April and then May.

I really like this Padres game, though.

Padres W 78%
-219 (+9 V.I.)(pays 45.6 cents on the dollar)

78 x .456 = 35.5
22 x -1.....= -22
---------------------------
................13.5% ROI

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Padres -1.5 65%
-131 (+8 V.I.)(pays 76.3 cents on the dollar)

65 x .763 = 49.5
35 x -1.....= -35
--------------------------
................14.5% ROI

-------------------------------------------------------------------

65% is about as high a number as I'll get for a runline.
-131 takes away some of the attraction.

I get only a 7% increase in return on investment
(1/13.5%)
but I have a 59% increase in risk
(13/22%)...22% risk on the ml and 35% on the rl

I think I'm paying the heavy juice on this one.
78%'s are 1-0 on the year (I can't remember the matchup; would have to go back and check).

I actually had this game at 80% (1-0 on 80%'s this season--was a Beckett start at home).
I was all ready to lower it 2 or 3 % if the Padres dropped their game in Pittsburgh.
The Padres pulled off the miracle win (giving me a series play:00hour ), but I decided to drop it 2% anyway, thinking 80 was a bit high for this Padres travel game (Pitt to Wash).

I think 78% is fair for this one.
Peavy is the best around, right now.
(and Padres WAY prefer facing lefties--OPS vs L .758 while vs R only .687)
Nats pen is bad, too, and Chico will likely need their help.

Padres line had actually dropped.
(TO -219).

Hard to imagine value at a -219, but I've got a whopping +9 V.I. at 78%, and a solid 13.5% return on investment (like it closer to 20%, but heavy juice will always diminish an ROI).

Wonder if I should wait for the line to drop some more?

Can't see it goin below -200.

I think I'm committed, here, for a few units.
Could start June off with a big minus if Nationals find a way to get it done.

About a 1 in 5 chance of that happening.

Hard to be more confident in a game than I am for this one.

A 78% 'cap will do that to me.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

This is through 2 full months, or about 1/3 of the baseball season.

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..452-335..203-165...249-170
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10
54??...28-24?..14-8?....14-16
55??...24-26?...9-12??.15-14
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5
59??...26-20?..11-11....15-9
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0
77
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0
totals?..106-94?..45-53?..61-41
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.


I hope that's easy enough to read, and understand.

The 2-month ("full") numbers are right about where I need them to be; a few numbers are off (55, 60, 62, 64, 69) but others are picking up the slack, by overachieving their %'s.

I need to break down the numbers into some groups for further analysis, e.g. 54-56, 57-59, 60-64, 65-69...something like that.
I think the numbers will be bang-on if I assess it that way, giving a slightly larger database for each group.

I am pleased.

70+ at 30-11 for the year (73.1% winners).
We'll see how they start off June, as there's two of them on board.

Tough to call the D'Rays at a 70%, but they're playing a team, perhaps, worse than them, and the pitching mismatch is ginormous.

I still haven't made any plays yet...
...hoping to update some more numbers first.

:SIB

 

[Jig-Jag]

The system is producing some great calls, but this one with Peavy at 1.40 seems a big call at that low juice. May parlay it with the Angels, which the system like also at 68% i think can't remember.
Good Luck with your plays though.:SIB

 

[bjfinste]

As much as big juice can suck to lay, I think the ML is definitely the better call than the RL in the Padres game. I've watched several of their games this year, and at first chalked it up to Petco (where high-scoring games go to die), but they are about as poor offensively on the road. That's one team I am just too damn scared to ever take on the RL.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Agree with the runline comments, bjfinste.

Padres sticks are pretty shameful.

They do prefer facing lefties, though.

Mind you, I just did some updates and I notice that the Padres OPS vs L was .833 at the end of April, and now it's down to .759 at the end of May.

A fair drop-off.

This is a Peavy play more than anything.
And we shouldn't have to worry about the Padres bullpen screwing things up, as the Pads pen is one of the best around.

Hopefully the Padres get 4-6 off of Chico, early, and I don't have to sweat too much.

I think that would be PLENTY.

:SIB

Picks are coming...just spent the last couple of hours doing bullpen and other updates.

Time to log-in and bust some moves.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Safeco

at Safeco

Rangers really aren't hitting lefties like they have in years past.
OPS .745, even down from end of April's .752.
They had an OPS of .813 vs lefties last season.

Mariners OPS vs righties at .747; a decent surge in May raised it from April-end's .716.
OPS .747 at home, right around last year's mark.

Washburn is 7-7, 4.13 era vs Rangers; got the loss in a 5-2 game at home, April 19th.

Millwood 6-4, 3.80 in 11 vs M's.
Was the winner in the 5-2 contest April 19th.
He was pounded in 4 straight games before going on the DL; hard to expect him to throw miracles here (I think he's overrated to begin with).

M's have come to life, lately, and Rangers are having a season to forget.

I think the 66% is fair, especially with the way the M's ate up Padilla yesterday.
Some value at the current -153.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I think Ortiz will be back for the Bosox.

I still kind of like the Yankees to get to Wakefield pretty good.
Wang & co. probably surrender 3-6 here.

Over 10 is a thought.
I think the Yankees are the better play, here.

I've been wrong on more than one Yankees play this season, though.

At -109, and a 'cap of 54%...

...this is one of the games I alluded to NOT playing due to limited value, with basically a coin-flip call.

I just have a feeling about this one.

Hopefully Wang can improve on his 3-4, 4.78 vs Boston; he did just beat them on May 21st (6-2, at home), but lost to them on April 29th (7-4, at home).
He's 1-2 with a gross 6.08 era in 4 starts at Fenway.

One key, here, is Wakefield being only 9-15 (4.76 era) vs the Yanks.
He's also seen his era rise steadily over his past 3 starts, going from 1.79 up to it's current 3.36 (23 hits and 15 ER for his last 19 IP).

Wakefield is coming back to earth.

Bosox OPS vs R at .792.
Yanks OPS vs R at .786.

Not much to choose from there.

I'm sorta trying to talk myself out of this one, but can't seem to do it.

Yanks are cheap, right now.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

recommended team totals

recommended team totals

with relative system numbers (- for unders, + for overs).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nationals un3 -135 (-25)

Pirates un4 -130 (-13)

d'backs un4 -135 (-12)

Mets un4 -130 (-11)

cards un3.5 -145 (-10)

Indians ov5.5 -115 (+10)

white sox un4 -115 (-8)

royals un4 -175 (too pricey) (-12)

orioles u3.5 -140 (-13)

twins u4 -125 (-11)

A's u4.5 -130 (-10)

rangers u4 -135 (-9)

--------------------------------------------------------------
(Geez, that's a lot of unders)

The higher (or lower) the number, the better.
Nats are at a whopping -25, facing Peavy.
I haven't really tried to work out percentages for team totals; regular totals are tricky enough.

Nats under 3 is cheaper than the Padres moneyline...by quite a bit.

That leaves just zero, 1, or 2, mind you.

I just can't see the Nats scoring 4, here, at least not off of Peavy.

A lot of the other team totals are just too pricey; moneyline looks like the better alternative.

I've got 12 posted above.
I'll be curious to see how they do.

I've got enough going elsewhere, so I'll probably avoid them (save for maybe a small Peavy play).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Was going to try the Rockies game over (11), but I see that Bucholz has thrown pretty well in 3 of his past 4 starts, including a beauty in his last at home (vs Royals, mind you).

Too early to say what Livingston really has.

Rockies have cooled off a bit, the past two, and only have a .682 OPS vs lefties (was .807 last year).

Reds OPS vs R at .755.

Reds not scoring too much last few, either (only 8 runs in their 3 games at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park).

System likes the over 11 (66%) but I don't want to tackle this high number, even at the tempting +100.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

new car, caviar, four-star daydream

new car, caviar, four-star daydream

PLAYS

system picks

padres -219 6.57/3
dodgers -145 2.9/2
Mariners -153 3.06/2

other picks

Indians -153 1.53/1
yankees -109 1.63/1.5
Blue Jays -139 1.39/1
D'Rays -191 2.86/1.5
Angels -184 1.84/1

totals

ariz@Mets un8 -120 1.8/1.5
min@A's un8.5 +104 1/1.04

2-teamer
--padres ml
--D'Rays ml
+122
1/1.22

2-teamer
--padres ml
--Angels ml
+124
0.8/1


Starting off the new month with a relative bang, here.
Hopefully I can get some breaks.
I shouldn't need too many; I think I've got the better teams going in most of my plays (Yankees and Indians are probably my iffiest plays (iffiest?!?)).

Thanks to HuskerPower for the book recommendation.
I really don't know of too many good books on handicapping sporting events, so if anybody else has any to recommend then that would be cool.
If I'm going to pursue such a project, it would be good to have an idea of what's already out there.

I still think my system is a keeper.
This season is going to be the real test.

GL