Friday June 22nd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday June 22nd 2007

yesterday: 2-1 -0.10
June: 126-122 -2.85
ml 60-46 +1.61
rl 10-11 -6.01
totals 46-33 +17.33
parlays 10-32 -15.78
system picks still 112-68 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; now 52-31 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

phillies 67% (-110)+14 RL 52 (+145)+11
cubs 53 (-110)even
Fla 56 (-114)+2
clev 65 (-174)+1 RL 50 (-110)-3
col 51 (+106)+2
lad 61 (-142)+2
Mets 55 (-144)-5
Atl 54 (-149)-6
Mil 70 (-169)+7 RL 56 (+125)+11
Tex 55 (-114)+1
Ariz 75 (-175)+11 RL 62 (+124)+17
bost 60 (-126)+4
cin 58 (Harang-Baek)
Laa 72 (-179)+7 RL 58 (+115)+11
Sf 59 (+110)+11 +1.5 73 (-150)+13

system totals

cubs@Cws un8.5 71% (+105)+22
clev@Wash un9.5 74 (-115)+20
col@Tor ov9.5 72 (-110)+19
oak@Mets un9 68 (-105)+16
det@Atl un9 80 (-110)+27
kc@Mil ov9.5 67 (-110)+14
bost@Sd un7.5 78 (-115)+24


Dang Jays bullpen cost me a perfect day; Marcum was solid again, as expected; Jays just didn't produce enough. Went 1-0 on totals, 1-1 on the moneline. At least I didn't really lose anything. Time to think about tomorrow (today).

I'm already on the Phillies; I think they are one of the better plays on the board. Dodgers are tempting; quite an SP mismatch in this one as Lowe is very hot these days; if I want a piece I should grab it soon as I think the only direction the line will move is up. Brewers and D'Backs will likely get some of my money, but I'm not sure how to approach them, yet. System picks on today's board are the Phillies, Brewers, D-Backs, Angels (depending a little on Pitt's late game?Pirates get shellacked tonight and the Angels will be looking even better), and Giants (Yankees value is going to be tough to find, right now, with their recent?yet past?winning streak). Cain coming in off of a couple of beauties and Igawa has been very bad as a starter this season; Yanks may be a bit deflated after getting swept.

Lots of totals to think about. I'll likely try a few, though I prefer playing totals in games #2 and #3 of series, when I can actually get umpire information.

Will post picks once procrastination plummets.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Petco

at Petco

Maddux is 5-0 in 7 career starts vs Bosox (era 3.42).
He's been decent in his last 5 starts, going 3-0 (Padres 4-1).

I kind of like Matsuzaka to have a really good day, pitching at Petco for the first time; he's been better on the road (era 3.48, oba .224) than at Fenway this year (era 4.81, oba .268).

Bosox seem to be either hit or miss in road interleague games...road games, in general, lately.

I want a piece but those Maddux numbers are going to keep it small.

Under 7.5 is tempting, like the system call (78% under), but I've been burned my last few under 7's; last was with ump John Hirschbeck back in the mix (Mets' Sosa coming back to reality).
I don't think I can risk it here without some umpire information; at about 9:30 pm that should become available.

Bosox OPS vs R .789.
Padres OPS vs R .696.
Very difficult to compare these numbers as their home parks offer vastly different opportunities.
Bosox number drops here, at Petco, but will still be higher than Padres, who are OPS .677 at home.
For what it's worth, Bosox are OPS .782 on the road (.820 at Fenway); most of those (all) were at better hitter's parks than Petco.

I still think that the under has some bite; two of the better bullpens in MLB helps.

I've grabbed a piece of the Sox so I think I'll pass on the total...for now...gimme a Doug Eddings behind home plate and I'll take the under near game time.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Angel Stadium

at Angel Stadium

Saunders hasn't worked much lately (not since June 2nd, in fact) but has looked quite competent as a starter; he's 3-0 and the Angels are 3-1 for his starts; probably only goes 6 but Angels pen has just gotten better and better as the season wears on so they should protect any lead the Angels get for Saunders.

And a lead shouldn't be tough.
Opponent's batting .351 off Duke this season.
Angels OPS vs L .780; Angels OPS at home .816...not such a great hitter's park, they just dominate at home (currently 26-10; they've won 7 of their last 9 played at home).
Pirates OPS vs L .719; OPS on the road .702.

Factor in the Angels having a day off...and staying put at home, while the Pirates had to play a late game in Seattle before shipping off th Anaheim.
Pirates bats have scored nothing for two straight games now.

Expensive, but I've got to get me some.
Wish Weaver were starting, but then the price tag would be over -200.
Former 1st-round pick Saunders should be fine.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Cubs/White Sox

Cubs/White Sox

Ex
I'm curious to your thoughts on this game. I can't beleive I'm saying this, but I think there might be some great value in the Sox, maybe even on the RL. Cubs just 5-10 vs. southpaws this season and just had a tough trip to the longhorn state dropping 2 of 3 to the pathetic Rangers (although with how many they stranded today, they should have won). Sambrano coming off a complete game and a tough one at that. Also Buehrle has pitched well in his last two outing, only yielding 4 runs. Sox had a day to rest up for this one too. That's just what I've been looking at, but would really appreciate your input.

Thanks
MoeshY-13-

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at US Cellular Field

at US Cellular Field

Hey, MoeshY,

my breakdown for the game has the
cubs -8 and the
Chisox -12,

meaning the pitching likely dominates the hitting in this matchup.

I'm playing the under but avoiding the sides.
The 53% call on the Cubs is due to Cubs getting a one point (=2%) edge for their pitching (Chisox crappy bullpen is a factor) and a three point (=6%) edge for their bats (Cubs OPS vs L .711 while the Chisox OPS vs R is .689; I gave a one point bonus to the Cubs as they'll be using a DH, here.

I gave the Chisox their usual home-field adjustment but still get an edge for the Cubs.

A very tough game to call.
Neither team overly impressive right now.
Chisox already beat on Zambrano once, this year, but Carlos is on fire his last two, allowing only 5 hits over his past 17 IP.
Buehrle's last two have been rock-solid also.

About all I can offer, on this one.
Like I say, I'm trying the under 8.5.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Thanks Ex...appreciate the input and all the work ya do!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

OMG:com: ...

You can now get the Phillies at +100.

WTF am I missing here...Cards have a good bullpen but that's not going to help them much as they fall behind in the early innings.
Moyer is 3-1 with a 2.86 era for his career vs Cards.
Cards OPS vs L .692.

Reyes is 0-8 with a 6.34 era.
Phillies OPS vs R .804.

Cards are 16-17 at home this year, losing 4 of their past 7 at home (playing Royals, Angels and Reds).

Phillies are 18-18 on the road.
They're 9-4 against the Central Division.

This game has a +10 Value Indicator even my call if off by 7%...call it Phillies 60% and the system is still begging for a play. I think the Phillies have better than a 60% chance to take this one, personally.

Edmonds on the DL, now, doesn't help Cards.

Looks like a gift, to me.

I'm sticking to my earlier prediction:
Phillies 7, Cardinals 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------
ROI for Phillies at +100 (V.I. +17)

67 x 1 = 67
33 x -1 = -33
----------------------
..............34%

It doesn't get much better than that.
Compare it to the high call...D'Backs:
75% (-168)+12 V.I.
-168 is 59.5 cents on the dollar

75 x .595 = 44.625
25 x -1.....= -25
-------------------------------
..................19.625%

That's actually pretty good, too.
Especially with the low risk (%-wise).

I'm on both.
Do what you like.

If you prefer a doggie, try the Giants.

ROI
------
SF 59% (+110)+11 V.I.
59 x 1.1 = 64.9
41 x -1...= -41
-------------------------
................23.9%

All 3 of the plays look real good, to me.
Today could be a real party.

:SIB

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

Good luck today X!! Keep up the great work you do on a daily basis. Your stats and homework are exceptional...Let's make some cash today boss.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot folks


I'm sure hoping for a decent one today as Saturday looks very promising.

System sides only 2-3 yesterday, missing the two high calls (63% for both Nyy and Jays), but still at a 5-day record of 39-21 (65% winners).

System totals with back-to-back 2-1 days shows that they're still rocking. We'll see how many of the 7 hit tonight, what with no umpire info to eliminate any.
I'm trying 4.

Final word is coming.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

phillies -110 4.4/4
Brewers -164 2.46/1.5
D'Backs -168 3.36/2
Angels -180 2.7/1.5
Giants +110 1.3/1.43

other picks

dodgers -138 1.38/1
bosox -126 1.07/0.85

totals

cubs@Cws un8.5 +105 0.8/0.84
clev@Wash un9.5 -115 0.57/0.5
col@Tor ov9.5 -110 0.55/0.5
det@Atl un9 -110 0.88/0.8

3-teamer (70 pack)
--Brewers ml
--D'Backs ml
--Angels ml
+266
0.75/2

2-teamer (personal favorites)
--phillies ml
--D'Backs ml
+194
1.03/2

2-teamer (big home-field advantage)
--Brewers ml
--Angels ml
+137
0.94/1.3


That does me good. Laying the heavy juice in 3 spots but there all 70+ calls; Brewers and Angels look like total mismatches while Webby should quiet the O's bats some. Just playing some small totals. I'd really like to hit the 4 big numbers, including Philly, and sweep my parlays?that would make my Friday. Got a shot.

I've 'capped Saturday and there's some promising possibilities. Astros, with Oswalt, will be posted as a major favorite when I do tomorrow's numbers, regardless of tonight's outcome; Wright has been punished by the Astros before, and Oswalt should be plenty good enough to secure victory; at -150 or -160 I'm hoppy. Tigers will have a monster number as well, in the Verlander-Davies matchup; at -140ish this might be my play of the day for Saturday. Mets will also be heavy faves, at least by my numbers; Hernandez has owned the A's in his career and should be about due to throw a good one; Mets need to get back to hitting leties like they were a month ago; Kennedy decent but not phenomenal lately; Mets might be pricey, like -160 to -170; I'd try a unit at that price if the Mets win tonight. The possible steal of the day might end up being the D'Rays, if we can get a good line in this Kazmir-Wolf matchup; both clubs hitting lefties better than righties but D'Rays (OPS vs L .836) doing much better than the Dodgers (OPS vs L .748); Wolf was smoked in his only go against the D'Rays and hasn't been at his best lately; D'Rays with a solid home-field edge, too; I'll like this one a little better if the D'Rays get the win tonight (I hope not?got a small piece of the Dodgers), but even with a loss the D'Rays will get the nod; I'll be in for more than just a piece in the -130 range?chit?might even get -120.

Haven't done Sunday yet, but did early prep so I know the matchups. A few look like mismatches (Hamels-K.Wells, Penny-Jackson, maybe even Gallardo-Perez) and there is one super-under possibility coming; Beckett-Peavy might see a total of 6.5; I still might try it under; Hendrix grant us a favorable umpire.

That's it for now.
GL