Friday June 8th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday June 8th 2007

yesterday: 8-9 +0.56
June: 50-41 +4.15
ml 22-12 +5.53
rl 2-4 -6.22
totals 22-15 +8.35
parlays 4-10 -3.51
system picks 2-0 yesterday; now 92-48 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-2 yesterday; 20-11 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

cubs 65% (-118)+10 RL 50 (+130)+6
Fla 62 (-127)+6
Col 55 (-101)+4
Det 51 (-116)-3
Nyy 64 (-180)-1
Cin 58 (+117)+11
hou 55 (+113)+8
phil 69 (-150)+9 RL 55 (+101)+5
laa 58 (-122)+3
Min 65 (-180)even RL 50 (+110)+2
mil 65 (-132)+8 RL 50 (+120)+4
Ariz 54 (+145)+13
Sd 57 (-144)-3
Sf 56 (-125)even
Lad 71 (-201)+4 RL 57 (+111)+9

system totals

mets@Det un10 67% (-120)+12
pitt@Nyy un9 73 (-109)+20
seat@Sd un7.5 69 (+100)+19
oak@Sf un8 73 (-125)+17
tor@Lad un7.5 66 (+100)+16


Holy cow am I jacked up right now. Incredible finish in San Diego saved me a small fortune (had 'em parlayed with Spurs, too, pretty large!). 80%'s now 2-0 on the season. Also got a nice win on the other system pick (Cubs). My other shots at the board were often dismissed by some REALLY crappy bullpen work (Astros, Mets). Got an easy win with that Super-OVER I posted?hope others jumped on board for that easy take-down. Even split on my parlays, picking up next-to-nothing. I'll take yesterday's survivor crash, gladly, what with the often difficult interleague schedule now resuming.

As for today's board?I haven't really had a chance to look at the options; not with yesterday ending up so heart-wrenching. Several system picks on board (Cubs, Reds, Phillies, Brewers, D'Backs), along with some others with true value (Marlins, Rockies, Astros). I got creamed last time through interleague so my plays will likely be small. I just have to try and narrow down my selections, if possible, from today's interesting board. The kid Bailey might be worth a shot for the Reds, especially against the struggling Lee; Bailey is a top prospect in the Reds organization, and is having a stellar season at Triple-A. Others I may comment on as the night progresses.

System totals smoking this month, having a fairly calm day yesterday at 3-2. 20-11 for June is fantastic. They're helping me to clear some coin this month on my totals. None of today's really jumps out at me; I'll need time to consider these options a little more, too.

Will post what's played.
Thank Hendrix For Small Miracles.
GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first class travelling set...

I'm in the high fidelity first class travelling set...

PLAYS

system picks

cubs -116 2.32/2
Reds +119 3/3.57
phillies -150 4.5/3
brewers -132 2.64/2
D'Backs +145 1.5/2.18

other picks

rockies -101 1.51/1.5
astros +113 1/1.13
angels -122 1.22/1
Giants -125 1.25/1
Dodgers -1.5 +111 1/1.11

totals

tb@Fla un9.5 -120 0.6/0.5
mets@Det un10 -120 1.2/1
pitt@Nyy un9 -109 2.18/2
pirates under 4 -130 0.65/0.5
indians under 5 +110 0.71/0.79
phil@Kc ov10.5 -105 0.63/0.6
phillies over 5.5 -115 0.8/0.7
bost@Ariz un8.5 -110 1.1/1
seat@Sd un7.5 +100 0.75/0.75
oak@Sf un8 -125 2.5/2
tor@Lad un7.5 +100 0.75/0.75

6-teamer (system's 60's)
--cubs ml
--Marlins ml
--Yankees ml
--phillies ml
--Twins ml
--brewers ml
+2260
0.22/5

3-teamer (hot visitors)
--rockies ml
--phillies ml
--brewers ml
+482
0.62/3


I think that's probably a wrap. I'm sure to hit SOMETHING out of all this action, the question is just what and how many. Nothing hammered, but lots of opinions.

?and I think I need a Lear Jet.
See you tomorrow.
GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've just finished Saturday's games.

Two very lopsided matchups, in New York and Minnesota.

Lines will probably be -250 to -300 for either Santana or Clemens.

At -200, for either one, I'll be hoppy.

I think the Brewers are the next biggest number, in the mid-60's, with Sheets going against McCarthy.

Might get a similar line as today's...maybe a little worse.
Say, around -144?

They'd be a system pick that cheap.

Brewers lose today and they're only a 63 or 64% call for tomorrow; won't be a system pick if Brew-Crew loses.

See you later.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I feel like playing...

I feel like playing...

return on investment breakdown for system picks at CURRENT (and book-specific...never mind...) lines
------------------------------------------------------------------
cubs 65% (-120)+10
-120 is 83.3 cents on the dollar
65 x .833 = 54.145
35 x -1....= -35
------------------------------
.................19.145%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Reds 58% (+111)+10
1.11 on the dollar
58 x 1.11 = 64.38
42 x -1.....= -42
-----------------------------------
..................22.38%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
phillies 69% (-155)+8
-155 is 64.5 cents on the dollar
69 x .645 = 44.505
31 x -1.....= -31
-------------------------------
...................13.505%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
brewers 65% (-140)+6
-140 is 71.4 cents on the dollar
65 x .714 = 46.41
35 x -1.....= -35
----------------------------
..................11.41%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
D'Backs 54% (+135)+11
1.35 on the dollar
54 x 1.35 = 72.9
46 x -1.....= -46
----------------------------
...................26.9%
-------------------------------------------------------------------

No surprise that the 2 dogs have the highest ROI's; they're also the biggest risks.

Phillies is definately the better play than the Brewers, as you've got less risk (31% to 35%) and a higher ROI; higher Value Indicator (+8 to +6) gave that away.

Compare the very attractive Phillies play (13.505% ROI at 69%) with the more lucrative D'Backs call (26.9% ROI at 54%).

D'Backs have a 13.395 increase in ROI or
13.395/13.505%
a 99.1% increase in ROI

Chance of losing increases by 15 points (69-54) or
15/31%
a 48.3% increased risk.

Not a bad trade-off. Value Indicator disparities (+11 for D'Backs, +8 for Phillies) suggested that the D'Backs call is as good or better than the Phillies call.

Beckett's numbers against D'Backs, D'Backs current winning ways (save yesterday), a hot Davis going, and a small home-field advantage all factor into the system call on the D'Backs; I think this might be the first game this season that the system has called AGAINST Beckett. Bosox travelled while the D'Backs stayed put...another thing to consider.
This game is probably up for grabs.
I'll try (tried) the generous line.

Go D'Backs!

(and Brewers,Phillies,Cubs,Reds,etc...)

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

while I'm on a roll anyways...

while I'm on a roll anyways...

Updated System Statistics
---------------------------------------
RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Tota..452-335..203-165...249-170?57-39
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13??5-2
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10??6-5
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10??4-1
54??...28-24?..14-8?...14-16??4-5
55??...24-26?..9-12??.15-14??5-2
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12??0-5
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11??3-0
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5??..4-1
59??...26-20?..11-11?..15-9??..5-0
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12??2-2
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8??..2-2
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10??1-0
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8??..3-3
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6??..1-2
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9??..5-1
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5??..1-2
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6???1-0
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1???1-1
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2???1-1
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1???1-1
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0???0-2
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1???
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0???
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0???
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1???
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???
77
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???1-1
79
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0??...1-0
totals?..106-94?..45-53?..61-41?...20-11
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.


High 50's (57,58,59) are kicking ass at 12-1 for June (92.3% winners). Other 50's are fine this month, too.

Most of the numbers from 60 up could use improvement this month...got 6 chances to do that today; one 71 also (0-2 in June to fall to 6-4 on the year; need Lad today just to reach 63.6% for 71's...not good).

8-4 on system sides yesterday, and several great days this month, are keeping my hopes up. 57-39 is 59.3% winners. Not bad for ALL games. A strong May (I was happy...and made money) saw system sides go 249-170 (59.4% winners). Pretty comparable this month; I just need to get on a nice little run to make the numbers pay off.

Hopefully I'll be smiling next time you see me.

GL

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Gl today X!