Friday May 11th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday May 11th 2007

yesterday: 4-8 -3.65
May: 54-41 +18.61
ml 27-9 +15.62
rl 7-6 +1.05
totals 12-15 -0.09
parlays 8-11 +2.03
system sides now 50-26 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Wash 51% (+103)+1
Pitt 52 (-109)-1
cubs 51 (+111)+3
Mets 51 (-115)-3
ariz 60 (-119)+5
sf 57 (+105)+8
Sd 74 (-201)+7 RL 59 (+111)+11
cin 55 (+106)+6
Bost 64 (-155)+3
Tor 56 (-126)even
laa 60 (-129)+3
Min 62 (-200)-5
Cws 61 (-167)-2
clev 61 (-124)+5
nyy 53 (-104)+2

system totals

cubs@Phil un8.5 71% (+100)+21
stl@Sd un7 70 (+110)+22
cin@Lad un8 71 (-110)+18
det@Min ov8 68 (-110)+15
clev@Oak un8.5 72 (-125)+16
nyy@M's un9.5 67 (-130)+10

Geez, I'm in a good mood despite a bad day on the bases; also had the Pistons and the Senators, so I ended up only losing half a unit on the day?ends a solid 6 day win streak overall where I've picked up over 30 units. Dodgers should have won, and I came close on 3 of my 4 totals (went 0-3-1?ugh).

Not a lot of system sides today; Padres look best as Peavy is pitching fantastic and Wells has been pretty bad; any kind of half-decent game from Wells and it might play under; 7 is tough, but Petco Park is probably the lowest scoring park in MLB.

Some other system totals look better?wish I could find out the umpires. Tigers are smoking lefties, so the Santana game could go over (Twins can't hit lefties, but Maroth is Tigers worst starter). Cubs really aren't hitting lefties (.715 OPS), and Hill has been dominant for Cubbies.

System picks went 7-5 yesterday following the 12-3 day; picks are 90-45 in May (66.6% winners).
System totals went 0-1 with a push; now 17-11 for May.

Will post picks, and anything else I find interesting, as things develop.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

series

series

There's some really nice looking series prices.
I'll have to 'cap Saturday and Sunday, to get a better idea.

First glance and these are appealing:

indians -105
tigers +115
angels -120
cubs +105 (like them a little in game #1, anyway--if Zambrano ain't goin' then cubbies have a shot).

others are kinda pricey, like Mets, Braves, and Yankees.

May take a shot with injuns, tigers, and/or angels...like I said, I'll have to 'cap Sat/Sun.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Houston

at Houston

Webb has been great against Astros:
5 starts, 2-1, 1.78 era 1.05 whip
1-0 1.35 era at Minute Maid Park.

Sampson appears to be hit or miss.
He's not facing the toughest lineup here, and he's been great in limited work at home, so odds are he might throw a decent game.

I don't like risking money on the D'Backs--don't like their offense--but they get the edge here with Webb going (though roughed up in his last, vs Mets).

I have a feeling I might regret this one.

I'd try under, but 8.5 is too low for Minute Maid, what with a questionable starter going in Sampson.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Colorado

in Colorado

Fogg is pretty bad (5.67 era, oba .310), and he's been even worse at Coors this year.
Decent in his 8 starts vs Giants (3-2 3.12 era).
His last 4 games have played over the total.

It's impossible to say how good Lincecum is going to be, but he's going to shine sooner or later, and his price will then go up.
I want to be there while he's still cheap.

Giving it a shot.

Total is too high, at 10.5--system says over 10.5 at 52%...would be higher % but total is too high. Besides, neither club really hitting that great.
Ump, if it's Dowdy, is even.

Jeez, that total is real high.
Too bad Fogg's era at Coors is 12.60.

I'm probably best to stick with my side (and pray).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at SD

at SD

Peavy starts are 5-2 unders.
Not great in 5 career vs Cards (1-2, 4.11 era).
At this point in the season, Peavy is my highest rated starting pitcher (90...compared to, say, Kip Wells who's at 72...75-76 is about average).

Wells last 4 have been bad to worse.
In 6 vs Pads he's 4-1 with a 3.29 era.
Maybe he turns things around against against a fairly weak hitting team here (Padres .663 OPS vs righties).

Cards .672 OPS vs righties...Peavy should excel.

Ump info would be huge, here, but I like the +110 being offered on the under.

Like Padres even more, but not sure how to play it.
:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Lad

at Lad

Arroyo's last 2 road starts have been brilliant (vs Cards then Astros).
Unders are 4-3 in his starts, but the last 2 have gone over due to him finally getting some run support (and his 1st 2 W's).
So-so (4.91 era) vs in limited action.
Dodgers OPS .676 vs righties.

Overs are 6-1 in Wolf starts, with 6 straight overs.
Last start he turned things around from a couple of rough outtings and was solid @Atlanta (8 K's, 1 er in 5.1 IP).
5-2, 3.58 vs Reds in 11 (nice whip of 1.07).
Reds OPS .728 vs lefties.

I'm thinking Reds and under.
A total of 8 sucks for a Reds game, despite the fairly low .728 OPS, but this is Dodger Stadium, a true pitcher's park.

Dodgers OPS .707 at home (last year .711).
Only .672 on the road (last year .686).

You'd think, like the Tigers and Padres, that the Dodgers would have higher numbers on the road, seeing as they play in a pitcher's park, but that hasn't been the case for them--they simply CAN'T HIT on the road.

I'm hopin' they can't hit here.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in T.O.

in T.O.

Burnett gets probably his easiest start of the year.
His last four were all on the road, at Orioles, Yankees, Indians then Rangers.
5 HR's allowed in his last 12 IP.
Like most starters, he has great career numbers vs D'Rays: 5-1, 2.56 era.
Overs are 4-3 in his starts.

Kazmir 3.17 era and 62 K in 54 IP vs Jays.
He's been solid lately.
Also susceptible to the HR, allowed 7 in 43.2 IP.
2-0, 4.05 on the road.
2-2, 4.94 at the Rogers Centre in 4 starts.

Can't play the under, here: Jays OPS .881 vs lefties...they're due for some runs.
Can't play the over: D'Rays OPS .710 vs righties, Burnett has owned them, and he's been decent last couple; Kazmir is Kazmir

Jays will end their streak, soon, but I probably won't be on it when it happens.
I'm a spectator on Jays games, for now.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Texas

in Texas

Lackey's career numbers nothing special vs Rangers: 7-8, 5.38.
3-5, 6.67 at Ameriquest Field!
1-2, 3.32 on the road this year (2.60 era overall).
Rangers OPS .717 vs righties (.790 last year).
Rangers OPS .778 at home (.825 last year).
Blalock, Kinsler, Hairston, Lofton, Texeira and Young all have hit Lackey well.
Lackey allowed 4 er to the chisox in his last.

Padilla 3-1, 4.79 vs Angels.
Solid 2.57 era in 2 home starts.
Did a number on the Jays in his last, for his 1st win.
Overs are 5-2 in Padilla starts.
Angels OPS .721 vs righties.

Tempting over, the way Rangers have hit Lackey.
Padilla has done well vs Angels, too, and has been decent lately.

I'm off the Angels, my early lean.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Santanaland

at Santanaland

Twins OPS .652 vs lefties!
Tigers OPS .846 vs lefties!

Wow!

Santana 2-2, 4.68 at home.
10-2, 2.68 career vs Tigers.
Under is 4-2 in Santana starts.

Maroth has been consistently mediocre, this year, but Tigers are 6-0 during his starts.
Overs are 4-2 in Maroth starts.
3-9, 4.69 vs Twins.

Mauer being out really hurts the Twins, right now.
Not just for the offense, but for the pitching staff.
I think this is a big part of the problem in Toronto, too (Fasano is garbage; at the plate and behind it).

I think 62% is the lowest number I've had for a Santana start this year.

runline 46% (+115)-1

Can't even get any value there.

Tigers 38% (+188)+3

Some value with Tigers.
:shrug:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Chisox

at Chisox

Chisox really aren't hitting lefties (OPS .582!), so that's why their % isn't so high (61%).

Mind you, Perez is 0-3, 6.65 vs Chisox in 4 starts.
He's steadily been lowering his era for the past 5 starts (down to 6.75).

Garland 13-5, 4.00 vs Royals.
0-2, 6.05 in 3 home starts.

Royals OPS .700 vs righties.

Chisox probably win, but too expensive here.
Total is a tough call.
System says under 9.5 at 64% (white sox can't hit vs lefties...KC can't hit on the road (.654 OPS)).

Hard to play a Perez game under.
Chisox may be coming around.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Oakland

in Oakland

A's .739 OPS vs lefties.
A's .596 OPS at home.

Injuns .762 OPS vs righties.
Injuns .743 OPS on the road.

Hard not to like the 5-0 Sabathia (club is 7-0 for his starts).
Career 1-4, 6.40 era vs A's, mind you.
Is a K-machine this year (53 in 47 IP, with 34 in his last 26 IP).
2-0, 3.60 on the road in 3 starts.
1-2, 6.97 in 6 starts at McAfee (blah!:com: ).

Blanton 0-2, 5.25 vs Indians in 2 starts.
0-1, 2.87 in 2 home starts.
A's are 4-3 in his starts, 0-2 in his home starts.

A's games are worth playing under, lately, but I don't know about this one, at 8.5 -125.
Sabathia has had some trouble vs A's, and Indians can really light things up, especially against righties.

This is another one I wish I knew the ump for.
A system total (under 8.5 72%), but I think I'll stick with Injuns.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

(last but not least) in Seattle

(last but not least) in Seattle

M's OPS .685 vs righties.
M's OPS .749 at home.

Nyy OPS .808 vs lefties.
Nyy OPS .783 on the road.

Rasner threw a great 5.2 IP of shutout ball in last, vs M's
Threw shutout ball his only other road start, at A's for 5.1 IP.
Nyy bullpen performing better lately.

Washburn 4-4, 2.80 vs Yanks, but lost 5-0 to Rasner in his last.
1-2, 3.91 in 4 home starts.

Washburn may have shut out the likes of Oakland for 9 innings (April 25th), but the Yanks are another story; they seem to be getting it together (have no choice the way the Bosox are surging). M's may pull off one of their occasional good-hitting games--they're very erratic--they have an idea of what Rasner will throw them, now.

Gotta give the edge to the Yankees, as in most of their matchups.
The 53 that my system came up with seems kinda low, and I'm tempted by the Yanks at this price (despite them killing 2 of my parlays on Thursday...costing me 3.5 units).

Think I'll at least grab a piece.

Total is tough to call, with the M's erratic offense.
Washburn may or may not be able to save an under, here.
System call is under 9.5 at 67%, but the -130 price really diminishes any value.

Still...it is pretty high for Safeco.
Washburn starts are 4-2 on the under, 2-2 at home, with a steak of 3 straight unders (including the Yankee game).
Rasner starts are 2-2 on the total. 1-0 under for his only road start.

Tempting...

:mj03:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

luck...breaks...mojo...karma...kudos

luck...breaks...mojo...karma...kudos

PLAYS

system sides

Padres -201 4.02/2

other sides

d'backs -119 0.59/0.5
giants +105 1.5/1.58
reds +111 1/1.11
indians -124 1.24/1
nyy -104 1.04/1

totals

cubs@Phil un8.5 +100 2/2
stl@Sd un7 +110 0.71/0.79
reds@Lad un8 -110 0.55/0.5

5-teamer
--d'backs ml
--Bosox ml
--angels ml
--Twins ml
--Chisox ml
+1120
0.2/2.24

Tempted by the Cubbies, but they can't hit lefties.
At least, hopefully they can't hit lefties here?same for Phillies.

70's are 11-1 (91.6%) for May, hitting both Tigers and Braves yesterday; hopefully that trend continues and I can score with the Padres.
Lincecum gets pummelled and I might back off him for his next.

I need to start a new streak!

GL


:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

more series

more series

D'Backs series price, at +135, is tempting.
Should win tonight, with Webb.
Excellent chance of winning Sunday (D.Davis vs Rodriguez).
I just don't like them in the Sat game (Hernandez vs Oswalt).

Pirates at +130 is also tempting.
Pitt definately plays it's best ball at home.
They have a definate shot tonight, with Duke, and tomorrow's James-Armas matchup could go either way. Sunday it's Lerew against Snell...another possible winner for the Pirates.

Reds price at +170 is enticing, as I think Reds take game #1.
Lohse vs Penny, tomorrow, has to favour the Dodgers.
Sarloos-Hendrickson, Sunday, also favours the Dodgers...but just a little.
I'm probably smarter to stick to tonight's game, as far as Reds chases go.

Finishing up with series and then sleep would be cool.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Brewers maybe

Brewers maybe

Milwaukee series price at +140.

They got a good shot tonight, with Suppan.
Tomorrow it's Sheets vs Pelfrey (Sheets 2-1, 4.91 at Shea).
Sunday it's Capuano vs Perez.

Should be quite a series.

Can't count Mets out of any game with their offense.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

liking single game plays better...

liking single game plays better...

Only a couple of series worth risking on, as far as I'm concerned:

indians -105 0.84/0.8
angels -120 0.72/0.6

I've also got the Ducks tonight, at +140, for anybody interested.

I should be posting my NHL playoff picks.
They've been rockin'.

Have Fun

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updating system statistics

updating system statistics

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...90-45
51??...17-15?.17-15??4-1
52??...13-13?.13-13??4-5
53??...16-16?.16-16??7-3
54??...14-8?...14-8??..6-4
55??...9-12??9-12??.3-4
56??...17-4??17-4??.1-5
57??...8-6??...8-6??..8-3
58??...8-11??.8-11??3-2
59??...11-11..11-11?...4-4
60??...12-9??12-9??.4-2
61??...10-8??10-8??.8-0
62??...10-8??10-8??.5-0
63??...13-9??13-9??.4-3
64??...7-10??7-10??.7-3
65??...10-4??10-4??.2-1
66??...9-5??...9-5??..5-1
67??...6-2??...6-2??..2-1
68??...5-4??...5-4??..1-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..1-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..2-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..2-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-0
73??...1-1??...1-1??..3-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..2-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..0-1
76
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80
totals?..45-53?..45-53??17-11
(posted system totals)

56's are suffering, at 1-5; this after coming up with the out-of-whack 17-4 for April. Guess it's just balancing out.
Weird, aye?

Hoping system number continue to rock tonight, at least for the games I'm on.

My first 80%'er coming up this weekend.
Anybody guess what game?

GL regardless

:SIB