Friday May 18th - interleague

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday May 18th 2007

yesterday: 5-3 +1.86
May: 96-69 +38.76
ml 54-24 +29.97
rl 8-9 -1.02
totals 19-23 -3.76
parlays 15-13 +13.57
system picks still 61-30 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Pitt 51% (-130)-6
Cubs 61 (-136)+3
balt 57 (-115)+3
Clev 64 (-178)-1
Det 55 (-110)+2
Bost 57 (Lerew-Gabbard)
Phil 65 (-170)+2 RL 50 (+120)+4
fla 54 (+107)+5
Mets 63 (-103)+12
Mil 72 (-150)+12 RL 57 (+142)+15
Hou 53 (-115)-1
Col 53 (-170)-10 kc 47 (+162)+8
lad 64 (-115)+10
sd 58 (-121)+3
sf 60 (-102)+9

system totals

ariz@Pitt un8 66% (-130)+9
cws@Cubs un8? 67 (n/a)
stl@Det un9 77 (-102)+26
fla@Tb ov10.5 70 (-122)+15
nyy@Mets un9 80 (-119)+25
tex@Hou ov9.5 70 (-102)+19
sf@A's un8.5 75 (-115)+21


Got lucky yesterday, as the D'Rays pen actually managed to pick up the W; Yanks always seem to lose when I play them; went 3-1 on totals.

I don't know about these system totals; quite a few of them. I'm gonna have to dig a little deeper and maybe select a few to try. Would love to be up on totals by the end of May.

I'm already in for some sides.
I'll be back in a bit to post my total script, but some of the plays should be obvious if you check out the numbers posted above.

72% is the best I've got today.
I'm on it.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Mile High

Mile High

I dunno about this Royals temptation...

Francis has really gotten his shit together, over his last 2 starts.
Still...1-2, 6.23 at home this year.
Faced the Royals once, in 2005, throwing 7 nice innings for the W (2 ER).
Royals .720 OPS vs lefties (was .761 last year).

De La Rosa solid in his last, at Chisox.
1-2, 5.04 on the road (5 HR in 25 IP).
Never started vs.
Rockies .668 OPS vs lefties (was .807 last year!).
Rockies .733 OPS at home (was .825 last year).

De La Rosa seems to be either good or crappy; every 2nd seems crappy so may be due here, especially at Coors; maybe he keeps the suddenly surging Royals in the game.

If it weren't for Francis' chucking real nice last couple then I might give in to the temptation.

Spectator.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tempted by the Tigers, but I don't know what this Miller kid will have to offer.

Cards only .588 OPS vs lefties.

Looper has been magnificent, this year.
He's 2-0 in 6 relief appearances vs Tigers, era 1.59 (only 5.2 IP).

The price is right for the Tigers at home (despite them playing better ball on the road).

Maybe sticking with the under is smarter.

Tough call.

:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Under is tempting in Anaheim...

5 of Penny's 8 starts have totalled 8 or less.
4 of Santana's 8 starts have totalled 8 or less.

Dodger's .702 OPS against righties.
Angels .716 OPS against righties.

Not very high numbers.

Angels .791 OPS at home...was .821 at home to end April, so a dropoff, of late.

Under is very tempting.

Already got the Dodgers for a chunk, though...
(1.39 era over a 5.51 era, and a pitcher who's starts have been won 7 out of 8 times to Santana's 2 of 8).

Santana hasn't been as great as advertised, but has been better at home:
2-1, 2.57 in 3 starts.

Pretty solid.
And Dodgers .702 vs righties won't climb much using a DH here.

Line at +101 is attractive.

System call is 60% under an 8.

60% (+101)+10

Worth a shot.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Shit...system call is for an under at Safeco, too.
63% under the 9 I can get.
-125 is too steep.

63% (-125)+7

Not enough value for me, for a total.

Pad's can't really hit, though, so Batista may have a rare, good game.

Young can always shut the door.

Maybe grab it late, if it hits -110.

I can also get 8.5 +104.

System call would be 58% under an 8.5

58% (+104)+8

A fraction more value, but at the cost of a 13.5% increase in risk (5/37).

I've got a taste of the side.
Should chill.

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

lose your dreams and you will lose your mind

lose your dreams and you will lose your mind

PLAYS

system sides

Mets -103 2.06/2
Brewers -150 4.5/3
dodgers -115 3.45/3
giants -102 3.06/3

other sides

Tigers -110 0.77/0.7
padres -121 1/0.83

totals

stl@Det un9 -102 1.02/1
fla@Tb ov10.5 -113 1/0.88
nyy@Mets un9 -119 1.19/1
kc@Col un9 +112 0.5/0.56
lad@Laa un8 +101 0.75/0.76
sf@Oak un8.5 -115 0.69/0.6


With these lines I don't know if parlays are warranted; if I want to risk more money I can do just fine straight up. Probably this is it. If the chemicals induce me into some crazy bonzai risk then I'll come back and post it if still standing. Or sitting. As the case may be. This weekend should be fun.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

just in case...

just in case...

for braves@Bosox (Lerew@Hansack)

Bosox 54%

Better shot if it was Gabbard, I figure.

Braves may light up Hansack, here.

Hard to say what Lerew will do; he did well against one crappy-hitting team (Padres) before being smoked by another crappy-hitting team (Pirates).

Over 10 would probably be cool.

May see 10.5 or 11.

I'm in deep enough.:scared

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

System sides 8-2 to start the evening.
Rockies call, if they hang on, would make it 9-2.

Really hurts missing the 72, today (Brewers).
Gonna make it really tough for me to make coin today.

Late games are starting kinda scary.

Flippin' Zito can't find the strike zone.

I need one of Dodgers of Giants, for cryin' out loud.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Zito 50 pitches through 2.

Hendrix help the Giants pen in this one.

:com:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[GFan9991]

Yeah it blows that the Brew Crew just did not show up today. They let Boof just dominate. 11 K's in 7 innings-crazy:shrug:
I feel like Interleague games produce some crazy stuff