Friday May 25th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday May 25th 2007

yesterday: 5-3 +2.3
May: 139-104 +36.31
ml 78-42 +23.62
rl 8-10 -2.09
totals 36-30 +4.59
parlays 17-22 +10.19
system sides still 66-37 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mets 52% (-116)-2
Atl 65 (-158)+3
Cin 61 (-155)even
Stl 62 (-160)even
Ariz 54 (-121)-1
Sd 57 (-126)+1
Sf 66 (-162)+4 RL 50 (+147)+9
Lad 51 (-115)-3
Nyy 57 (-120)+2
Det 61 (-121)+6
oak 56 (-103)+5
bost 65 (-173)+1 RL 50 (-111)-3
Kc 56 (+107)+7
tb 54 (+127)+9
Min 55 (-129)-2

system totals

mets@Fla un9 66% (+105)+17
phil@Atl un8.5 65 (+104)+15
clev@Det un10 76 (-105)+24


Yesterday was okay; 2-2 on the moneyline dogs, picking up a half-unit; 3-1 on totals, missing the loser by a half-run?another +1.8 there; happy to see totals turning around. Currently on a 4-day winning streak.

System sides went 6-4 yesterday, now 198-125 for May (61.3% winners).
After a perfect 3-0 yesterday, system totals are 46-31 for May (59.7% winners).

Lots of temptations on today's board, but I'm gonna try and take it easy.
No system picks; Tigers are close; so are the D'Rays.

Totals look iffy. Both Mets and Marlins can light up the scoreboard, and who knows how Hernandez will perform coming off the DL. Hudson games are always worth an under-shot, but Moyer has been shaky lately, and the Phillies bullpen is horrible. Indians and Tigers can both light things up, too, but maybe Byrd and Robertson can keep this one respectable.

I'm going to check out a few more things and maybe roll the dice.
Be back to post any plays.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at 65% chance for a Braves win,

I'd say 50% is reasonable for the runline.
(Braves probably only need 24 outs, but should get to Moyer and the pen).

Braves RL 50% (+135)+7

A little more value than the ML (+3 at -158).

I shall play...

Return on Investment Breakdown
-----------------------------------------------

Braves 65% (-158)+3
-158 pays 63.3 cents on the dollar

65 x .633 = 41.145
35 x -1....=..-35
------------------------------
6.145% ROI

-----------------

Braves RL 50% (+135)+7
1.35 on the dollar

50 x 1.35 = 67.5
50 x -1....=..-50
---------------------------
17.5% ROI

Of course a +7 at +135 is going to have a higher ROI than a +3 at -158.

Over the long haul it appears that the runline option has better value.

Just playing this as a one-shot deal, though.

On the moneyline, there's only a 35% risk.
The runline carries a 50% risk.

A 42.8% increase in risk taking the runline.
(15/35%).

A 184% increase in ROI with the runline.
(11.355/6.145%)
That's almost triple.

Is the increase in risk worth it?
Going from only a 35% risk to 50% risk is quite a jump.
Of course there should be a greater return.


Anybody who wants to chime in and lend a vote as to which play seems more enticing, please do so; I've been struggling with these assessments for years.

Personally, I look for minimal risk.
Often means I pay the juice.

Share your thoughts.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I like the Pirates and Reds over 9.5.
Trouble is, Pitt ain't scoring much (and OPS vs R .659).

Reds just got shut down by a mediocre lefty yesterday; face another today.
Reds OPS vs L .719...still not great.

System call is 53% over the 9.5.

Temptang.

 

[husky]

How about a run line of -1 instead of -1.5 ?

Being in Canada you can have an account at Pinnacle where you can do that.Maybe other sportsbooks offer that option as well.

Usually the -1 run line price is about half way between the money line and the -1.5 run line.So if Atlanta is say -1.60 ml &
-1.5 +1.30 then you can expect -1 -1.15 thus greatly reducing the cost & the -1.5 risk.

Hope this helps.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Interesting.

I'm used to the -1.5 runlines.

Still agree with the 50% call on the win by 2 runs.

-115, for your example, has a 54%-break-even.

Still need the win by 2 to WIN, but only a loss LOSES.

ROI assessment
-----------------------
-115 is 86.9 cents on the dollar

50 x .869 = 43.45
35 x -1....=..-35
--------------------------
8.45%

a 37% increase over the moneyline
(2.305/6.145%)

same chance of losing (35%)
but a 30% greater chance of winning with the moneyline
(15/50%)


I'm gonna have a hot shower and mull over my play finalizations.
Still haven't attacked.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

new car, caviar, four-star daydream

new car, caviar, four-star daydream

PLAYS

Braves -158 1.58/1
Giants -162 1.62/1
Yankees -120 1.2/1
Tigers -121 1.21/1
a's -103 0.72/0.7
bosox -173 1.73/1
Royals +107 0.7/0.75
d'rays +127 0.78/1

mets@Fla un9 +105 0.6/0.63
pitt@Cin ov9.5 +102 0.5/0.51
laa@Nyy un9.5 +105 1/1.05
clev@Det un10 -105 0.63/0.6
a's@O's un7.5 +100 0.5/0.5
m's@Kc un8.5 -120 0.6/0.5

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Giants ml
+164
0.61/1

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--bosox ml
+158
0.63/1

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--bosox ml
+183
0.55/1


I have decided to assault the board today.
With any luck I will survive. Done okay in times past.
65's are not doing well in May (5-7, but hitting one yesterday), so that makes me wonder about the Braves and Bosox (would like BOTH, being the greedy motha I am). Those two, the Giants, and at least one of the Yankees or Tigers would be sweet. I think I can at least break even with these totals.

I almost added tbay@Cws under 8, but decided I had enough plays as it was.

That's it for now.
GL