BASEBALL
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 24
Atlanta at San Diego (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Braves have parlayed their strong starting staff (3.14 team ERA, 2nd best in the league) into a winning record and a legitimate shot at the NL Wildcard if they don?t topple the first place Phillies. Hitting has been a problem for them, but no one in baseball is as inept on offense as the Padres (.231 team BA, averaging just 3.3 runs per game). San Diego is in the midst of another prolonged losing cycle (2-8, -$620 last 10 days) and they?ve complied a miserable record here at Petco Park (14-26, -$1390). Atlanta has turned a profit on the road in 2011 (+$390) and we like their chances of taking at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Braves in all games.
Boston at Pittsburgh (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Pirates have exceeded all expectations, emerging as a respectable .500 ball-club for the first time in many years. But they picked an awful time to run up against the Red Sox. Boston has continued to excel in recent days (8-2, +$585 last 10 days, averaging 7.4 runs per game with a 2.47 ERA among starters). They are currently the top run producer in MLB (.274 team BA) and they?ve been profitable outside of Fenway (+$505). We don?t want to lay fat prices on Boston here at PNC Park, but we?ll make an exception in Sunday?s afternoon contest. The Bucs are only 1-8 (-$790) in day games at home this year. BEST BET: Red Sox in day games.
Oakland at Philadelphia (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The A?s are coming out of a miserable stretch of losing baseball but they face a formidable challenge against the Phillies and that dominant mound corps (3.04 team ERA). But despite their travails, Oakland still has the lowest team ERA in the AL (3.30) and if they steal a win or two at Citizens Bank the payoff will be substantial. The Phillies are big money-burners in night games vs. righties (18-18, -$825) and they?ll face a pair of strong ones (Cahill 3.24, Moscoso 3.33) when the A?s hit town. Avoid day games, where Philly has dominated. BEST BET: Cahill & Moscoso in night games.
Arizona at Detroit (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Diamondbacks have opened a lot of eyes this year, but they face a difficult task when they head to Comerica. The Tigers have roared back after a miserable stretch, currently holding the top slot in the AL Central. They?ve turned a profit at home (+$440) and they?ve amassed a 14-6 record vs. lefthanders (+$720). They are likely to face a pair of southpaws who have gotten mixed results in earlier starts this year (Duke 4.66 ERA, Saunders 4.50). Arizona has fared well in inter-league play up to now, but we?ll stick with the home team in this one. BEST BET: Tigers vs. Saunders & Duke.
Cincinnati at Baltimore (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Reds finally won an inter-league game last Sunday, but that 1-5 record vs. the AL (-$485) is still a cause for concern. The O?s are struggling mightily to stay relevant in the tough AL East, and while they?re unlikely to make the playoffs they are in good shape vs. the not so hot Cincinnati pitching staff (4.13 ERA, 4th worst in the NL). Baltimore is a solid 10-6 in night games vs. righthanders at Camden Yards (+$325 with 5.1 runs per game). Prices on the home team will be tempting. BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders in night games.
Colorado at N.Y. Yankees (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Rockies have picked up the pace in recent days (6-4 in their last 10), but they are still big losers overall in 2011 (-$1320) and two day games in the Bronx won?t help improve those numbers. The Yankees are beset with injuries, but they are still among MLB?s top run producers (5.2 per game) and their team ERA ranks 4th in the AL (3.55). Their Friday loss at Wrigley was only their 4th defeat in an afternoon game as opposed to 19 wins (+$1140). Colorado has lost money in day games (-$575) so even if prices get high we?ll stick with the home favorite. BEST BET: Yankees in day games.
N.Y. Mets at Texas (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Mets are gradually climbing to respectability, and they?ve been very profitable on the road this year (+$755). Texas has been running hot & cold all year; one moment they appear poised to run away with the AL West, next thing you know their dropping games and allowing the division race to tighten. We won?t oppose them when the Mets start a southpaw (Rangers +$805 vs. lefties at Arlington), but they?ve lost money at home vs. righthanders (-$580). That makes both Dillon Gee (+$1135 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 starts) and Mike Pelfrey (1.69 ERA last two starts) obvious choices this weekend. BEST BET: Gee/Pelfrey.
Tampa Bay at Houston (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
This is a big opportunity for the Rays to win a few games against the worst team in baseball and keep within striking distance in the competitive AL East. The Astros are having a miserable year, and that includes a pitiful 15-37 record vs. righthanders (-$1890). Tampa Bay has fared well in the role of visitor (+$800) and we like their chances with comeback pitcher James Shield (+$555 with a 2.40 ERA in 15 starts) and Jeremy Hellickson (3.10 ERA in 13 starts), both of whom are expected to take the mound at Minute Maid Park this weekend. BEST BET: Shields/Hellickson.
Washington at Chicago W. Sox (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Nationals have been one of the hottest teams in the majors lately (8-2, +$645 last 109 days), thanks in large measure to an unheralded pitching staff that now ranks 6th best in the NL (3.55 ERA). The White Sox are a below average offensive club (only 4.2 runs per game) and they?ve lost money at US Cellular (-$660). Veteran Livan Hernandez has put together a number of solid starts (3.77 ERA) even if they have not translated into victories, and Jordan Zimmermann has had an All-Star first half (3.08 ERA in 14 starts). Both are slated to see action in Chicago, and prices on the visitor should be very reasonable throughout. BEST BET: L. Hernandez/Zimmermann.
Minnesota at Milwaukee (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
After embarrassing themselves for most of the season, the Twins are suddenly the hottest team in baseball (8-1, +$775 in their last 10 games, with a 1.83 ERA in those contests). But they face a difficult test when they visit Miller Field, a ballpark that has proved deadly to visiting clubs. The Brewers are now 25-9 in home games (+$1245) and their pitching staff continues to improve (3.74 ERA). We like their chances in this series, but Minnesota now has a real shot at getting back into the playoff hunt as injured players return to active duty. As much as we like Milwaukee, we?re not anxious to go against this surging visitor. BEST BET: None.
Chicago Cubs at Kansas City (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
This is a pretty ugly match-up, probably not what the powers that be envisioned when they introduced inter-league competition. The Royals had a nice run in April and early May, but they?ve since reverted to form (31-41, -$475) and appear destined for another finish in the AL Central basement. The Cubs are pitiful as usual (only 29-42, -$1325 so far), and average offense coupled with the worst pitching staff in the majors (4.71). Can?t see any reason to get involved at Kaufman Stadium this weekend. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at St. Louis (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Cardinals were riding high in the NL Central, but they?ve come crashing down to earth (3-7, -$520 last 10 days), falling out of first place after holding a commanding lead within the division. The Blue Jays have not gotten the quality of pitching they had hoped for (4.20 ERA, 3rd highest in the AL), but they look like an intriguing underdog here at Busch Stadium. They?ve been very profitable in night games when playing on the road (14-8, +$940) and they?ll get two opportunities to improve on that record this weekend. They?ll likely be posted as underdogs, so if they can at least manage a split we?ll turn a profit. BEST BET: Blue Jays in night games.
L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
It?s been a troubled year for the two LA squads as they square off in the first of two back to back series on the west coast. The Angels have one of the better team ERA?s in the league (3.51), but they are still below .500. The Dodgers? situation is even more dire. The franchise is in financial disarray and may well be taken over by MLB before season?s end. They can?t score runs (3.7 per game) and their pitching ranks near the bottom of the NL as well (4.18). They are only 21-32 vs. righthanders (-$1325) while the Angels check in with a 13-8 mark vs. righties on the road (+$640). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Angels when righty meets righty.
Cleveland at San Francisco (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Giants have dominated lefthanders in 2011, so it?s good news for the Indians that they have yet to start a lefthander in 2011. San Francisco is proving to be anemic at the plate once again (only 3.5 runs per game) and if their ace starters keep faltering there?s little hope for a repeat as champions. The Tribe hit the skids in early June, but they?ve climbed back to the top of the heap in the AL Central and despite that awful losing streak they are still one of the top money-makers in baseball (+$1235). Justin Masterson has a 3.18 ERA after 15 starts and we like his chances as an underdog vs. an SF team that is under .500 vs. righties (-$685). BEST BET: Masterson.
Seattle vs. Florida (at Seattle) (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
OK, so let?s try to understand what?s going on here. Dolphin Stadium is unavailable. So the series is being played at Safeco, but the Marlins are the home team. They will bat last in all three games and the contests will count as home games for Florida. In the real world of course, the Mariners are playing at home while Florida will be traveling to the other end of the country. Calling Florida the home team is preposterous. The reality is that the Marlins are in complete collapse (lost 18 of their last 19), the manager has just resigned, while Seattle is in a tight division race. The Mariners are 18-12 vs. righties in this ballpark (+$545) and they should brush aside the hapless visitor without very much difficulty. BEST BET: Mariners vs. righthanders.
BEGINNING MONDAY JUNE 27
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Rays have had a lot of trouble here at Tropicana Field, particularly against righthanders (-$700) and they?ll be facing a Cincinnati rotation that is predominantly righthanded. The Reds have turned a profit as underdogs (+$480) and they?ll no doubt be cast in that role throughout. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Rays.
L.A. Dodgers at Minnesota (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Twins are making their move after a truly miserable start to the season, and they get to tee off on a floundering LA team that is coming off a rivalry series vs. the Angels at Dodger Stadium. They are only 21-32 vs. righties (-$1325) and they?ll be facing a couple of hot ones in Nick Blackburn (3.17 ERA) and Scott Baker (3.24), both of whom should see action. PREFERRED: Blackburn/Baker.
Cleveland at Arizona (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
This shapes up as an intriguing matchup between clubs who were expected to finish well below .500 but have exceeded expectations. The Tribe is only 3-8 in road day games (-$340) so we?ll back the D?backs in Wednesday?s contest. Arizona is 22-17 at Chase Field this year (+$365). PREFERRED: Diamondbacks in day games.
Kansas City at San Diego (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
Another unappealing matchup featuring two clubs likely to wind up in their respective division basements. Both have been a losing proposition in 2011 (Royals -$475, Padres -$1105), so we prefer to sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Washington at L.A. Angels (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Angels have been a disaster vs. righthanders when playing here at Anaheim (-$970) and the Nationals are proving to be a rather tenacious (8-2, +$645 last 10 days). We like their chances in the role of underdog. PREFERRED: Nationals in all games.
Atlanta at Seattle (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Braves have lost money against righties in night games this season (-$335) while Seattle checks in with a 25-17 mark in that situation (+$820). With the 2nd best team ERA in the AL, the Mariners can compete with Atlanta and their vaunted starting rotation. PREFERRED: Mariners when righty meets righty in night games.
BEGINNING TUESDAY JUNE 28
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
Doug Davis notched his first win last week against the Yankees, but his chances against the Giants are not promising. San Francisco checks in with a 14-5 record vs. southpaws (+$925) and Chicago has been a huge money-burner for their backers when playing at Wrigley Field (-$920). PREFERRED: Giants vs. D. Davis.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Yankees (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
We like the Yankees? chances against this Milwaukee team that cannot get its act together outside of Miller Park (only 15-24, -$865). But New York has not fared all that well in night games in the Bronx (-$1275), so we?ll only back them in Thursday?s day game (Yanks 19-4, +$1140 in that situation). PREFERRED: Yankees in day games.
Pittsburgh at Toronto (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Pirates have been phenomenal on the road this year (+$1105) and Toronto has lost a bundle vs. righthanders at Rogers Centre (11-15, -$700). Pittsburgh has a trio of quality righthanders in their rotation, at least one or two of whom should see action in this series. PREFERRED: Correia/Karstens/Morton.
N.Y. Mets at Detroit (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Mets are improving steadily, but they are still not a true contender, and their lefthanders will be vulnerable here at Comerica when they come up against a Detroit team that is 14-6 (+$720) vs. southpaws. PREFERRED: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Baltimore (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Cardinals have not been playing well (3-7, -$520 last 10 days) and their season will be in jeopardy if Albert Pujols?s wrist injury proves to be serious. But we?re not interested in the Orioles at this time (Baltimore 3-6, -$300 in the last 10 days). PREFERRED: None.
Boston at Philadelphia (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The two top teams in baseball square off in a possible World Series preview. The Phillies are 15-5 vs. lefthanders this year (+$820) and they?ll get a shot against Jon Lester, who?s been good but not great in 2011 (3.70 ERA). PREFERRED: Phillies vs. Lester.
Texas at Houston (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Rangers have had some problems as baseball approaches the midway point (4-7, -$485 last 10 days). But they have been solid vs. lefthanders (+$310 with 5.1 runs per game) and the Astros are a joke. PREFERRED: Rangers vs. lefthanders.
Chicago W. Sox at Colorado (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The Rockies have been terrible vs. righthanders, particularly here at Coors Field (-$1250) so we?ll take a shot with the White Sox when they send one to the hill. Chicago has posted a modest profit outside of US Cellular. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Rockies.
Florida at Oakland (3) 28th, 29th, 30th
The A?s are starting to recover from a hideous losing streak, but they?ve been big losers in 2011 (-$1110). Florida is on the ropes at this point (-$930) so we?ll take a pass. PREFERRED: None.
