Friday Night Lights

[MasterTX]

Going out with a bang today! Last day of work for the summer! Haven't been posting here, but since I have some pretty extensive write-ups, wanted to share with my MJ friends.

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 250.00 to win 337.50
1. Baseball - New York Yankees - runline -1? (+135)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 6:05pm [pending]
T Hudson -R must start and O Hernandez -R must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 110.00 to win 100.00
1. Baseball - Oakland Athletics/New York Yankees - total Over 8? (-110)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 6:05pm [pending]
T Hudson -R must start and O Hernandez -R must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 330.00 to win 300.00
1. Baseball - Anaheim Angels - runline -1? (-110)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 6:05pm [pending]
RM Ortiz -R must start and P Walker -R must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 110.00 to win 100.00
1. Baseball - Anaheim Angels/Toronto Blue Jays - total Under 10 (-110)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 6:05pm [pending]
RM Ortiz -R must start and P Walker -R must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 105.00 to win 100.00
1. Baseball - Detroit Tigers - moneyline (-105)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 6:05pm [pending]
J Johnson -R must start and M Maroth -L must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 180.00 to win 150.00
1. Baseball - Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers - total Under 9 (-120)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 6:05pm [pending]
J Johnson -R must start and M Maroth -L must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 100.00 to win 130.00
1. Baseball - Chicago White Sox - moneyline (+130)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 7:05pm [pending]
F Garcia -R must start and M Buehrle -L must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 100.00 to win 100.00
1. Baseball - Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox - total Over 8? (+100)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 7:05pm [pending]
F Garcia -R must start and M Buehrle -L must start for action

Aug 9 12:10am Baseball - Pending 105.00 to win 100.00
1. Baseball - Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Kansas City Royals - total Over 9 (-105)
for the entire game held on Aug 9 at 7:05pm [pending]
J Kennedy -L must start and M Asencio -R must start for action

EDIT: CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH, TYPO.

 

[MasterTX]

NOTE: THIS WAS WRITTEN EARLY EARLY IN THE MORNING--1AM PST.

New York Yankees O.Hernandez -1.5 and Over 8.5
I see the Yankees at home on a Friday night vs an Oakland team who hasn't impressed me too much lately. Hudson still garners respect with his name this year, but at 8-9, 5-5 on the road, he doesn't float my boat. I like this play big for a lot of reasons and this should be a great write-up. Let's start with Hudson:
5.40 ERA in his L3 starts
Hudson hasn't pitched on the road for almost 3 weeks.
In his 11 road starts this year, Hudson has given up a total of 35 runs. 15 of those runs come in the first 4 innings, and 20 come after that. He is averaging 6 2/3, so we'll say about 20 come in that 2 2/3 span. He is a very good "starter" by those numbers...but the one team who likes to disrupt the opposition early...El Yankees (as morales would say).

Now to O. Hernandez:
El Duque is undefeated lifetime vs Oakland. Avg margin of victory in the 9 starts = 4.33 runs.
3 of those games he was getting higher than -155, he won those games by 3,6,and 13.
Hernandez hasn't been real consistent himself, but he is 3-1 at home with a 0.96 WHIP. Can't ask for anything more.

Yankees should be up for this one after the KC series which I think they felt was a little disappointing. Mariano is back and it was good to get him some confidence with the save. Don't be fooled...Yankees big!

The Over is a little more of a gutsy call. Have it capped right at 8.5643. I have found this zone to be a good place to go over so I am just going to trust it and run with it. Looking over my numbers right now...this one will be low scoring early on in my opinion...but with the Yanks...you never know what they can put together.
On the 8.5 totals so far in this range:

LINE---PREDICT---ACTUAL---W/L
8.5----8.1993------18------W
8.5----8.5292-------9------W
8.5----8.5301------26------W

Sure it's just 3 games...I am not really basing it off that...but these games just didn't go over, they went OVER. Hoping the Yankees lineup will come out fired up and cover this one.

Did I mention this game fits into my top system for runlines? 9-0 since I started tracking it 2 weeks ago.

Anaheim Ortiz -1.5 and Under 10
Why I am playing this game bigger than the Yanks shows you how much I love Anaheim tomorrow. This game also fits into the 9-0 runline system so I am not passing her up. Walker is not a horrid pitcher at home compared to others on the Toronto staff, but at 2-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 56 hits in 49 innings of work I tend to lean to the Halos to cause some havoc. Walker is only pitching about 5 innings/home start and the Toronto bullpen is not one to trust versus a solid offensive squad. Sure, Ortiz is a little overrated in my opinion, but I am taking this play thinking the Anaheim bats will have enough spark to cover and win by 2.
In his last 10 starts...Ortiz has had some good outings.
EARNED RUNS ALLOWED:
3,4,4,2,9,1,2,4,2,4
Not too shabby.

Seems like everyone will be on the Over in this game with lots of trends pointing that direction. I will go against the grain and trust the system. I have showed you recently how much I like 10 lines. I think I would get better odds had I waited until tomorrow, but just like to get plays over with and not have to worry about it again. Capped this game at 10.6498 and I think it should get VERY close to 10 (7-10 runs scored), but don't want it to get that high. Ortiz needs a good outing before playoffs start and here is his chance.

Detroit Maroth and Under 9
The play on Detroit is not only a play against a struggling Johnson who hasn't won since interleague play, who has given up 7 homers in his last 17 2/3 IP, who sports a 3-8 record, 6.62 ERA L3, and the fact that the O's are 3-10 in his starts...well that should be enough though. Maroth LOVES his pitcher friendly ball park at home where he is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA. The youngster gets the job done...in 26 1/3 innings as a starter at home...he has given up ONE, YES ONE run in the first 5 innings of work to his opposition. You smell why I like the Under now even more. -105 is an absolute gift and the only reason Balitmore is getting the line is because of their recent sweep against Minnesota. Johnson didn't pitch then and if he did, you can count that sweep goodbye. Tigers prevail in this one.

As you may know, I don't normally play 9's but this one stood out again and it's just too hard to pass up. System says 6.5257 for this outing, and these teams don't strike me as offensive powerhouses, so I will give it a try. Sorry, no chart to share with you on the 9 lines.

Chicago WhiteSox Buehrle and Over 8.5
I get lots of heat when I take these Sox...mostly from my boy Braveheart, but I like their staff and they fare well in my books. They have a good bullpen, especially at home, though you might not think it. I know there are people out there who tell me home/road doesn't matter and it all evens out in the end...but I don't believe that garbage one bit.

The WhiteSox pen has allowed 67 runs in 55 home games and 100 in 60 road games...tell me I am supposed to overlook that and you are crazy (I think you know who I am referring to). Anyways, I like Buehrle a lot and I have had success picking CWS as dogs in the right situations. This team is not just giving up and calling it a season...they scrapped and gave Anaheim all they could handle and it will carry on over to this series with Seattle where they will try to play the spolier once again. I understand Durham and Lofton hurt their offensive numbers, but they still get the runs to win and that's all that matters. Garcia's a good pitcher, but I will take my chances with the Sox again.

The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and I don't see that being phased today. Capped this one at 10.0372 and for all of you who like the charts:

LINE---PREDICT---ACTUAL---W/L
8.5-----9.2408-----15------W
8.5-----10.1385----10------W
8.5-----10.4376----6-------L
8.5-----10.7473----13------W
8.5-----11.0108----10------W
8.5-----11.1156----12------W

Have to think they can get 9.

Tampa Bay/Kansas City Over 9
DAMN, I am tired...I hope you people are reading this! Another 9 line...yes...like it too much to pass up. Thank God I don't have to chart another one for this but this game total was capped at 12.6488. I would be stupid to pass this game.

For all the people who like Kennedy...he is not the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. This kid has given up 55 runs in 78 2/3 IP on the road and 98 hits. Asencio is even worse...21 runs in 26 1/3 IP...ALL of the runs coming early on within the first 5 innings of play. Asencio, 8.50 ERA at home, 9 bombs in 36 IP, 25:14 BB:K ratio and a 2.00 WHIP. Are you kidding me?

This Tampa Bay team isn't pretty, but they can hit the ball against scrub pitchers...linesmakers have to keep this total down at a respectable 9 with two terrible teams...but I can see them putting on a hit-fest tomorrow. By the way, if anyone sees a prop for Steve Cox to go yard...let me know...seems every time I watch a TB game on CBS Sportsline, the guy yacks one.