PARLAY (5 TEAMS) 1 unit pays 16:
MLB [901] TOTAL o10-110 (ATLANTA BRAVES vrs COLORADO ROCKIES) [B MCCARTHY -R/G MARQUEZ -R]
MLB [911] TOTAL o9-125 (BALTIMORE ORIOLES vrs NEW YORK YANKEES) [K GAUSMAN -R/C SABATHIA -L]
MLB [913] TOTAL o10?-105 (TORONTO BLUE JAYS vrs TEXAS RANGERS) [M ESTRADA -R/M MOORE -L]
MLB [916] LOS ANGELES ANGELS -140 [D GOSSETT -R/P BRIDWELL -R]
MLB [918] HOUSTON ASTROS -1?-150 [L PERDOMO -R/L MCCULLERS JR -R]
Atlanta/Colorado-4:10 pm McCarthy (Marquez -- McCarthy off a decent start (but it was vs the Phillies) with his new team and seems healthy for once. He never had great numbers except his hard-hit rate is among the lowest and he is tops at not giving up homers - which is a good thing for Coors, except he's not been all that good at Coors (present team bats .299 vs him).....Marquez no ER across 5.0 innings 1st start of the season, but 4 Hits 4 walks and only 4K. He's off a good rookie year, for a Rockies pitcher, but does give up pleny homers at home...so these pitchers and they way ATL offense has been this season, and Rockies finally get to play at home, I do feel a bet on the over here....The cold I see affecting pitchers more than batters...
Kansas City/Cleveland-4:10 pm Duffy (Carrasco -- both these guys gave up 5 ER in their 1st starts this season, but Carrasco usually pitches well at home and has the better team behind him, for sure, and this is their season opener at home. I have more confidence in him bouncing back with a fine start at home (present KC batters are .189 vs him in 143 AB). But ya never know, Duffy started out last season so well and he did this season too, until all those homers in the 4th inning last week. Hence this stiff line, but seems to me overvalued. still, I don't like Duffy vs (what should be) stronger division opponent on the road, so Cleve -1.5 if anything, and the under considering these bats (Cleve last in AL in hitting, but Brantley should be back today) and possibility both starting pitchers have a better game today.
Baltimore/N.Y. Yankees-7:05 pm Gausman (Sabathia -- Gausman was as bad in his start last week as he was in his 2 starts at Yankees last season. He could bounce back, but I doubt it...CC was fine his start last week. Ya think ain't gonna see too many of these with his all-around diminishing skills, but he did have that nice stretch last season and he is working on being a different pitcher now, a "crafty leftie" we read here, so time will tell...CC not best against Birds last season either...Over!...I see over has hit 14-2 in the last 16 times these teams met here....and I see here Yanks and Balt still #1 and #2 worst bullpen in Majors so far this young season!
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh-7:05 pm Castillo (Williams -- Castillo pitched last week way better than line suggested (5 inn, 6 ER - but only 1 BB and very sharp changeup with a few mistakes and command issues might be fixed by now) I expect him better today, with improved velocity too..He sported a road 2.84 ERA last season...Williams pitched 6 scoreless innings last week vs Tigers, but with lotta walks and only 1K, a ratio harder to pull off vs Reds (tho Reds offense not really woke up yet, esp vs RHP, and harder to wake up in this pitcher's park)...so I am thinking Pitt and under
Toronto/Texas-8:05 pm Estrada (Moore -- Estrada off start he gave up 3 ER in 7, due to couple HR. Could spell trouble here with all his pop up fly balls...Moore gave up plenty runs and - well, forget it, I'm not gonna try and figure Moore out. But given TX bats back at home and ready to swing, and Toro been pounding that ball, I'm on the Over...
San Diego/Houston-8:10 pm Perdomo (McCullers -- Perdomo back to being a mess in his 1st start this season, plenty runs and walks, but showed some good stuff he just can't seem to pull together, he needs some work and I bet these hot Astros bats will give him a workout!..Padres are 3-10 in his last 13 starts on the road...McCullers good in his 1st start vs Rangers, 10Ks!..but 2 ER in 5+1/3rds, using that famous curveball alot, and his fancy new 2 seamer, he should go better here (efficiency problems as always), having time to refine all this, and vs these bats. He's been very good in interleague and his dad played for Padres - ya know he wants to show them up...Houston Astros -1.5 yet again
Chi. Cubs/Milwaukee-8:10 pm Hendricks (Woodruff -- this Brewers lineup bat .206 vs Hendricks in 136 AB, even worse vs him in this park....Woodruff had 4.37 FIP last season, better than his ERA, has a nice heater and mix of pitches, lots of SO and swishes in minors, these Cubs bats off to a slow start could have trouble here...I like the Under.
Oakland/L.A. Angels-10:07 pm Gossett (Bridwell -- Gossett with 0Ks and a 2.00 WHIP his first start this season (vs Angels). Typical. He has some skills as his xFIP always better by a decent margin than his ERA, but still...he was fifth on the A's in strikeouts and innings pitched and had an unlucky 17.3 percent homer-to-fly-ball rate and a .329 BABIP - so the metrics guys keep saying he'll get better...I dunno....his only start in this park he went 6.2 innings, 3 ER (two earned)...Bridwell was horrible in 2 starts vs Oak last season (2.833 WHIP) and might just been a fluke, I dunno. He claimed he was having trouble with his release point that week. Don't forget Angels won 17 of Bridwell's 20 starts last season, that 17-3!!..and Angels are playing very well now, and have beaten Oakland 16 of last 19 times Oak has visited here (!)....so Angels I am betting gonna win today...
L.A. Dodgers/San Francisco-10:15 pm Maeda (Holland -- Maeda no ER in 5 with 10Ks last week. Very good and aggressive like he was at end of last season, and like then still not go very deep...Holland might get some help here as Dodgers not doing well vs LHP now, tho did get 3 ER off him last week, but he needs all the help he can get. SF hopes he can turn it around in this ballpark and league, we'll see! He always needs good run support for a win and SF ain't scoring too many runs (except for 1 game)....I'm on Dodgers.
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MLB [901] TOTAL o10-110 (ATLANTA BRAVES vrs COLORADO ROCKIES) [B MCCARTHY -R/G MARQUEZ -R]
MLB [911] TOTAL o9-125 (BALTIMORE ORIOLES vrs NEW YORK YANKEES) [K GAUSMAN -R/C SABATHIA -L]
MLB [913] TOTAL o10?-105 (TORONTO BLUE JAYS vrs TEXAS RANGERS) [M ESTRADA -R/M MOORE -L]
MLB [916] LOS ANGELES ANGELS -140 [D GOSSETT -R/P BRIDWELL -R]
MLB [918] HOUSTON ASTROS -1?-150 [L PERDOMO -R/L MCCULLERS JR -R]
Atlanta/Colorado-4:10 pm McCarthy (Marquez -- McCarthy off a decent start (but it was vs the Phillies) with his new team and seems healthy for once. He never had great numbers except his hard-hit rate is among the lowest and he is tops at not giving up homers - which is a good thing for Coors, except he's not been all that good at Coors (present team bats .299 vs him).....Marquez no ER across 5.0 innings 1st start of the season, but 4 Hits 4 walks and only 4K. He's off a good rookie year, for a Rockies pitcher, but does give up pleny homers at home...so these pitchers and they way ATL offense has been this season, and Rockies finally get to play at home, I do feel a bet on the over here....The cold I see affecting pitchers more than batters...
Kansas City/Cleveland-4:10 pm Duffy (Carrasco -- both these guys gave up 5 ER in their 1st starts this season, but Carrasco usually pitches well at home and has the better team behind him, for sure, and this is their season opener at home. I have more confidence in him bouncing back with a fine start at home (present KC batters are .189 vs him in 143 AB). But ya never know, Duffy started out last season so well and he did this season too, until all those homers in the 4th inning last week. Hence this stiff line, but seems to me overvalued. still, I don't like Duffy vs (what should be) stronger division opponent on the road, so Cleve -1.5 if anything, and the under considering these bats (Cleve last in AL in hitting, but Brantley should be back today) and possibility both starting pitchers have a better game today.
Baltimore/N.Y. Yankees-7:05 pm Gausman (Sabathia -- Gausman was as bad in his start last week as he was in his 2 starts at Yankees last season. He could bounce back, but I doubt it...CC was fine his start last week. Ya think ain't gonna see too many of these with his all-around diminishing skills, but he did have that nice stretch last season and he is working on being a different pitcher now, a "crafty leftie" we read here, so time will tell...CC not best against Birds last season either...Over!...I see over has hit 14-2 in the last 16 times these teams met here....and I see here Yanks and Balt still #1 and #2 worst bullpen in Majors so far this young season!
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh-7:05 pm Castillo (Williams -- Castillo pitched last week way better than line suggested (5 inn, 6 ER - but only 1 BB and very sharp changeup with a few mistakes and command issues might be fixed by now) I expect him better today, with improved velocity too..He sported a road 2.84 ERA last season...Williams pitched 6 scoreless innings last week vs Tigers, but with lotta walks and only 1K, a ratio harder to pull off vs Reds (tho Reds offense not really woke up yet, esp vs RHP, and harder to wake up in this pitcher's park)...so I am thinking Pitt and under
Toronto/Texas-8:05 pm Estrada (Moore -- Estrada off start he gave up 3 ER in 7, due to couple HR. Could spell trouble here with all his pop up fly balls...Moore gave up plenty runs and - well, forget it, I'm not gonna try and figure Moore out. But given TX bats back at home and ready to swing, and Toro been pounding that ball, I'm on the Over...
San Diego/Houston-8:10 pm Perdomo (McCullers -- Perdomo back to being a mess in his 1st start this season, plenty runs and walks, but showed some good stuff he just can't seem to pull together, he needs some work and I bet these hot Astros bats will give him a workout!..Padres are 3-10 in his last 13 starts on the road...McCullers good in his 1st start vs Rangers, 10Ks!..but 2 ER in 5+1/3rds, using that famous curveball alot, and his fancy new 2 seamer, he should go better here (efficiency problems as always), having time to refine all this, and vs these bats. He's been very good in interleague and his dad played for Padres - ya know he wants to show them up...Houston Astros -1.5 yet again
Chi. Cubs/Milwaukee-8:10 pm Hendricks (Woodruff -- this Brewers lineup bat .206 vs Hendricks in 136 AB, even worse vs him in this park....Woodruff had 4.37 FIP last season, better than his ERA, has a nice heater and mix of pitches, lots of SO and swishes in minors, these Cubs bats off to a slow start could have trouble here...I like the Under.
Oakland/L.A. Angels-10:07 pm Gossett (Bridwell -- Gossett with 0Ks and a 2.00 WHIP his first start this season (vs Angels). Typical. He has some skills as his xFIP always better by a decent margin than his ERA, but still...he was fifth on the A's in strikeouts and innings pitched and had an unlucky 17.3 percent homer-to-fly-ball rate and a .329 BABIP - so the metrics guys keep saying he'll get better...I dunno....his only start in this park he went 6.2 innings, 3 ER (two earned)...Bridwell was horrible in 2 starts vs Oak last season (2.833 WHIP) and might just been a fluke, I dunno. He claimed he was having trouble with his release point that week. Don't forget Angels won 17 of Bridwell's 20 starts last season, that 17-3!!..and Angels are playing very well now, and have beaten Oakland 16 of last 19 times Oak has visited here (!)....so Angels I am betting gonna win today...
L.A. Dodgers/San Francisco-10:15 pm Maeda (Holland -- Maeda no ER in 5 with 10Ks last week. Very good and aggressive like he was at end of last season, and like then still not go very deep...Holland might get some help here as Dodgers not doing well vs LHP now, tho did get 3 ER off him last week, but he needs all the help he can get. SF hopes he can turn it around in this ballpark and league, we'll see! He always needs good run support for a win and SF ain't scoring too many runs (except for 1 game)....I'm on Dodgers.
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