Miami Marlins +100
New York Yankees -1? (-140)
Chicago White Sox +103
Cleveland Indians -200
Seattle Mariners +102
Minnesota Twins +105
Los Angeles Angels -150
1 unit bet pays 71
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074 :spotting: :em71: :drinky: :mj06:
MLB parlays this season: 2-27, +17.0 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted Monday, August 14th...winner #2, a nice daytime 4 teamer posted Thursday, September 14th...
Mengden is over his injuries now, been strong with all his pitches and command whilst tuning up in the minors, and his 1st start back in the big leagues last week, handling Houston...Leiter in a funk of late, those hot Oakland bats will get to him.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Twins fans will be celebrating Colon on Friday for "Big Sexy Night" as some in attendance will receive T-shirts with the 20-year veteran's No. 40 and his nickname "Big Sexy" on the back.
Sean Newcomb (L), 7 percent, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: Newcomb needs to improve his control, but he's racking up goodly punchouts along with keeping the ball in the yard. The Mets have been surprisingly effective versus southpaws the past month, but we're at the point of the season where risk-taking is necessary.
Rafael Montero (R), 5 percent, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Like his mound foe, Montero's primary issue is control. Over his previous 36 1/3 innings, Montero has fanned a respectable 32 with just one homer allowed, but he's issued 22 free passes. The Braves aren't especially patient, nor productive facing right-handers, giving Montero a chance at a solid effort.
Play: Yankees -1?
The Baltimore Orioles took a 13-5 beating in the opener of this four-game series with the New York Yankees in the Bronx. I predict another easy win for the home team Friday night.
Baltimore hands the ball to 24 year old Gabriel Ynoa (1-1, 4.19 ERA) who will make his seventh appearance and second big league start. He was charged with three runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 frames of a 4-2 loss at Cleveland his last turn. The Yankees are perfect 5-0 in their last five games when facing a right-handed starter and they've covered the runline in 12 of their last 13 victories.
Luis Severino (12-6, 2.96 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. They've won 10 of his 12 starts since July 8, covering the runline in each win. Severino is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts against Baltimore on the season and has the current Orioles roster limited to a .207 batting average through 121 at bats.
It's always a bit risky backing the home team on the runline, but note that the Yankees are 16-6 against the runline as a home favorite of at least -175 this season.
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
It may be too little too late, but the Mariners rotation is getting its stars back with just a few weeks to go in the regular season. Only 3 games back in the Wild Card race, they have a motivational edge in this game against the Houston Astros who have the AL West division race all but wrapped up. James Paxton takes the mound in this game for his first start off of the DL, and after his last stint on the DL in May he pitched fantastic against the Rockies. In addition to that, Paxton has dominated the Astros this season and has given up just one earned run in 20 innings pitched with a 20/4 K/BB rate. He has a stellar 1.84 FIP on the road and 1.77 FIP in the 2nd half of the season.
Interestingly enough, Charlie Morton?s 3 starts against the Mariners this year have all come against Paxton. He went 0-2 in those starts and carries a 4.58 ERA against the Mariners. One of the reasons he has failed to have success is his .287 BAA split against right handers on the year. The Mariners terrorize pitchers who can?t get righties out, as their stars are lefties and their marginal players have success in those situations. I?ll take Paxton in a rare underdog spot on the moneyline...
Miami @ MILWAUKEE
Miami -1? +187 over MILWAUKEE
8:10 PM EST. The Marlins just got eaten up in Philadelphia by scores of 9-8, 8-1, and 10-0 last night. That now runs their losing streak to five, not to mention that they?ve lost 10 of their last 11 games. Miami?s stock has hit rock bottom, which makes us instant buyers in this very winnable game. Jose Urena has upgraded his control by doing a better job of getting ahead in the count and pounding the zone. He has thrown his best pitch more often (Slider: 13% swing and miss; usage 2016/2017: 14%/27%). This is an under the radar pitcher with raw stuff, including a 96 mph fastball and decent change-up (12% swing and miss), that just keeps getting better. Urena has an elite 61% groundball rate over his last 10 starts too. Urena?s ERA over his last five starts is 2.91 with an xERA of 4.31. No doubt he still has work to do but he?s trending the right way to be sure and he gives the Marlins their best chance of winning among the rest of the starters. That said, Urena is not our target.
What are relief pitchers? Relief pitchers are former starters that usually have two pitches in their arsenal with only one pitch considered to be plus. Pitchers with three pitches (or more) usually end up as starters. No pitcher has ever started out their career wanting to pitch in relief. The goal of every pitcher on the planet is to start. A reliever is a former starter that could not crack the rotation because he just wasn?t good enough. Even Cleveland?s Andrew Miller was a starter for years before they gave up on him in that role and put him in the ?pen. Very few pitchers in the history of this game have made a successful transition from relief to starting. Jeremy Jeffress will attempt that here for the Crew.
Jeffress has appeared in 53 games this year, all in relief. He has appeared in 263 games in his MLB career, all in relief. The most innings he?s pitched this season in any one outing is 2.1 innings. Mostly, Jeffress has been asked to come in and get three unimportant outs this year when the game is not really on the line. As a member of both the Rangers and Brewers (he was traded at the deadline), Jeffress? team has lost 15 of the past 20 games he has appeared in. Again, he?s been asked to pitch in low pressure situations for the most part and rarely if ever in the eighth or ninth inning with the game on the line. Last year, he lost his closer role in July. Aside from that, his numbers aren?t even that good. He has walked 30 batters over 57 frames in 53 appearances this season. His first-pitch strike rate is 47% and now he?s going to come in with a different mindset than he?s ever had at this level and chances are very strong that it doesn?t end well for this career reliever with poor control.
South Florida (-18) over Illinois
Yes, this is a lot to lay here but we want to lay this on South Florida as we think it is a good time for them to get up to face a decent opponent, and with the nation watching this team we think they will perform in a big way. Keep in mind that Charlie Strong's team is 2-0 and ranked 21st in the nation but they are hardly impressive this year. This team just beat Stony Brook 31-17 as 35-point favorites, which is not very impressive. Plus, this team beat San Jose State in their Season Opener 42-22 as 21-point favorites (failing to cover once again) - and they were down a couple scores in that game early on as well. This is an opportunity for this team to face a competitor they will get up for and also look good doing it and to quell some fears. Illinois is a team that has exceeded expectations thus far for Lovie Smith as they were 6-point underdogs to Western Kentucky and won outright. The defense has given up just 28 points this year to their credit, which is Smith's strength. Having said that, to win this game, this team needs to score and score a lot as South Florida has a prolific offense and an improving defense under Strong. That should be the difference here in that South Florida's defense should hold against an average Illinois defense and South Florida's offense should still be able to move the ball with all the talent they have.
South Florida -17?
I released my "Game Of The Week" on Illinois last week. The Illini were at home and getting points against an over-rated Western Kentucky team. They rewarded me with a 20-7 victory. The Bulls represent a far more dangerous opponent though, one which has the schedule in its favor.
Illinois plays its first road game and does so on a short week. On the other hand, USF comes in well-rested, last week's game at UConn having been postponed due to Irma. While the Illini may have a 2-0 record, they've also been outgained by an average of 309.5 to 258, in terms of yards per game. That 258 number isn't going to cut it against an explosive USF attack.
The Bulls appear to be the "real deal" and have aspirations of a New Year's Day bowl game. They won 11 games last season and are experienced on both sides of the ball. Playing on ESPN, this is their chance to show the world how good they are. Don't be surprised when this one turn's ugly. Consider laying the points with USF.
Illinois at South Florida
Play: Illinois +18
South Florida?s offense will be a huge test for HC Lovie Smith?s Illini defense, which looks drastically improved for 2017. After yielding 31.9 PPG and 5.5 YPP last season, Illinois has allowed just 14 PPG and 4.3 YPP in the first two games of 2017. One of the games, the more impressive of the two, was a 20-7 victory over Western Kentucky, a team that has been known for its offensive prowess in recent years. Well, USF is a bigger challenge than that even boasting stud QB Quinton Flowers. However, the Bulls offense has certainly underperformed in the early going in this first season under HC Charlie Strong. While 36.5 PPG doesn?t seem like a low total, consider that the opponents thus far have been San Jose State (who allowed 34.7 PPG last year, and Stony Brook, a FCS opponent. At this point, USF is 0-2 ATS despite enjoying a turover edge of +4 in the first two games. Perhaps this team is a bit overrated at this point, and playing as a fairly large favorite at home versus a Big Ten team doesn?t make much sense. I believe that Illinois? remade defensive front will pose problems for the Bulls and keep them in the game as dogs
Well, nobody said the Friday night schedule was always going to be glamorous, but in Massachusetts and Temple we have a definite chance to make some easy money by playing against the overvalued favorite Temple Owls.
Temple lost at Notre Dame, but did bounce-back to nip in-city rival Villanova a FCS team, 16-13 by hitting a 49-yard field goal with about one minute remaining in regulation. That type of win does not inspire confidence in laying double-digits even against the 0-3 Minutemen.
UMass may not own a win yet this season, but they do have revenge on their minds, as they allowed a pair of scores in the games final two minutes back in 2015 at home to lose a 25-23 heartbreaker to the Owls.
Remember, Temple's Matt Rhule took the bigger, better deal to go to Baylor, and thus far the Owls rebuild has gone a little slower than expected under new coach Geoff Collins. The Owls mustered just 79-yards rushing in last week's nailbiter over the Wildcats, while they allowed an eye-popping 382-yards passing! UMass has a QB in Ford that can move the pigskin through the air, so why not take the points out for a spin this Friday night?
Minutemen plus the call in Philly on Friday.
Saskatchewan @ HAMILTON
Saskatchewan -4 -102 over HAMILTON
7:00 PM EST. We?re back in the CFL business tonight because we see an opportunity that we?re not about to miss. Just because we haven?t been posting CFL plays the past couple of weeks doesn?t mean we?re not paying attention. We are. The Tiger-Cats are now 2-0 under new head coach June Jones, which is pretty on paper but no game has even been played on paper before and we know better. Hamilton was gifted its first win on Labour Day after a three-hour lighting delay in front of the 25 fans that bothered to stick around through the storm. What looked like a fumble by quarterback Jason Masoli would have handed the ?Cats another loss but it was ruled an incomplete pass. Jones then took a shot and threw the flag after an incomplete pass in the end zone and interference was called on the defense. Just like that the Tigercats were in the end zone. It was a horrible call and a desperate attempt by the new coach that worked out. It was a bizarre win in a game that Hamilton was outgained in by 128 yards.
Last week, Hamilton literally hung on to beat Ottawa 26-22. The ?Cats were outscored in the second half by a count of 15-3 and the reason they won is because they didn?t turn the ball over once. Incidentally, last week, Ottawa?s #1 QB, Trevor Harris was injured and forced to leave in favor of Drew Tate. In summarizing, Hamilton?s two lucky victories since replacing Ken Austin came against Toronto and Ottawa, two East teams in what could be summarized as the worst East Division in the history of the CFL. Put no weight in Hamilton?s two victories. Put lots of weight on the ?Cats being outgained by 258, 201, 134, 161, 221 and 118 yards in six of its last seven games. The last time the ?Cats played Saskatchewan back in early July, they were outgained by 258 yards. Now the Roughriders are a much improved team while the Tiger-Cats are not. QB Jason Masoli is not an upgrade over Zach Collaros and is in fact a big downgrade. The Tiger-Cats have not turned a corner. They are the CFL?s worst team by far but two wins have changed the market mindset on them.
Saskatchewan is a tough, physical team that has swag again for the first time in over two years. Only twice this entire season have they been noticeably outplayed and those losses occurred to B.C. and Calgary. For the most part, the Roughies have been racking up big yardage and playing solid defense. They are also coming off back-to-back games against a very difficult Winnipeg team in which they outgained Winnipeg both games but split the home and home series. The only way Saskatchewan loses here is if they are flat after two big games versus Winnipeg. The good news is that they lost the last one and teams? are usually flat after a win, not a loss. We have not seen the Roughriders appear flat too often this year, instead, we have seen an intensely focused team that is on a mission to not only make some noise but also to get back the great respect they had for years. If that team shows up here, this one won?t be close and that?s what we?re betting on.
Memphis +3
The scoreboard results look decent for UCLA, with a 2-0 mark to open the season. Josh Rosen has put up some huge numbers, throwing for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions against Texas A&M and Hawaii. And yet, despite those monster stats from Rosen, the Bruins have all the makings of a bet-against team in early start TV action on Saturday.
Let?s start with this: Rosen has zero interceptions only because Texas A&M dropped the ball, with Rosen every bit as lucky as he was good in the Aggies late defensive meltdown. And we need to note the miserable spot here for the Bruins. They?ve got a major revenge matchup with Stanford on deck, coming off a remarkable comeback and an easy blowout. This game reeks of a legitimate flat spot for the road favorite, especially when we consider the noon Eastern Time start ? that?s 9 AM on the body clocks for the kids from the West Coast.
There?s another anti-UCLA factor in play here ? Jim Mora?s track record in games like this one. The results don?t lie. Dating back to the start of the 2014 season, my numbers show Mora and the Bruins with a grand total of three pointspread covers in their last 13 non-conference affairs, not a team to be laying points with thousands of miles from home with Stanford on deck!
But the biggest factor of all one that makes it very easy to support for Memphis in this ballgame ? is the failure of the UCLA defense in early season play. Again, the results don?t lie. In two games, the Bruins have been gashed for 663 yards, allowing a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. Hawaii ran the ball down their collective throats last week: 281 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per carry. That?s a real problem against a team like Memphis!
Make no mistake about it ? the Tigers have the skill position talent to trade points with UCLA. Senior QB Riley Ferguson is surrounded by Power 5 Conference depth at WR and RB; an offense loaded with playmakers. Memphis is going to spread the field and push the pace, both problems for the Bruins defense in early season play. And the Tigers are primed to make a statement, at home, on national TV, against a national powerhouse. Riley Ferguson: ?I?m ready. I know all of our guys are ready for it. Everybody?s going to be watching. It?s time to go out there and show everybody what we can do.?
Tulane at Oklahoma
Play: Tulane +35.5
I cashed a winning free play here in the blog last week on the Tulane Green Wave in their spread covering loss as double-digit underdogs against Navy. I think they are worth another endorsement as they head to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners. Tulane has opened the season 1-1 SU but more importantly 2-0 ATS. This is a squad that has taken major strides under the watch of second-year head coach Willie Fritz. The triple option offense has been firmly established and the level of execution, particularly along the offensive line, has gotten better as the Green Wave have averaged 243 ypg on the ground at a 5 ypc. They?ve also found a better quarterback this season with Jonathan Banks who with a 65% completion rate, 3 TDs and no INTs has shown the ability to throw the ball. Unfortunately, Banks was knocked out of the Navy game due to injury but Johnathan Brantley filled in admirably. The potential loss of Banks, while not ideal, shouldn?t have much of an impact in the short term.
Oklahoma obviously isn?t in the best of spots after last week?s monster road win at Ohio State. The Sooners were able to put the clamps on J.T. Barrett and OSU?s struggling offense while Baker Mayfield connected on 27-of-35 passing for 386 yards and 3 TD passes. Everyone by now is well aware of celebration that took place following the win and with their conference opener on deck, it?s very possible we don?t see a fully focused favorite on Saturday. And focused they?ll need to be in order to cover such a large pointspread. I?m sure they spent some time during the summer preparing for the option but a vast majority of the preseason was geared specifically for the Buckeyes and other Big XII foes. Tulane is feisty and proving to no longer be a pushover. They?re just the sort of squad that can quietly slip into Norman, stick around, and leave with an easy pointspread cover.
LSU @ Mississippi St
Play: Under 53.5
Mississippi State loves to run the football, grinding out yards as the clock moves, but they run into a ferocious LSU defensive line. The LSU Tigers have allowed just 10 points in two victories with junior tailback Derrius Guice off to a sizzling start out of the backfield. LSU's 2016 sack leader Arden Key will play after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury. Key had two sacks against Mississippi State last season as LSU notched a 23-20 win over the Bulldogs. LSU is on a 13-4-2 run UNDER the total with that great defense, including 15-5-1 UNDER in conference play. Seven starters return to a Mississippi State defense that has allowed a total of 21 points in two games. But the offense got shut down in last year's loss to LSU with 214 yards passing and 56 yards rushing on 1.8 yards per carry. Mississippi State is on an 11-5 run UNDER the total after a victory, as well as 11-5 UNDER after getting 40+ points the previous contest. Both teams are undefeated, so look for a monster defensive effort with more field goals than touchdowns.
New England @ NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS +6 -104 over New England
1:00 PM EST. The Saints played on Monday night and the entire country watched, as their poor defense was torched again and ended up being the reason that Sam Bradford was named Week 1?s offensive player of the week. That?s not all the negatives, as it was not pretty. Not pretty at all. The Saints appear to have three starting-quality running backs and are giving each 1/3 of the workload. Adrian Peterson (6-18) looked embarrassed to have such minimal playing time against his old team. Mark Ingram (6-17) wondered what happened to his 1,000-yard season last year while Alvin Kamara (7-18) just wants these old guys to get out of his way. The 29-19 loss to the Vikes on Monday night was a flattering score to the Saints. The biggest overreactions are always to prime time games and that applies here. The Saints figure to be better but what really sticks out to us is that the market is ignoring the Patriots poor performance, also in a prime time game.
When talking about aging quarterbacks, 40-year old Tom Brady has largely been left out of the conversation but that cannot be the case any longer. Over the last two games, the Patriots have been in a position to be blown out and the only thing that saved them in the Super Bowl was the complete meltdown by the Falcons coaching staff who couldn't figure out you should run the ball and kill the clock with a big lead. By continuing to pass the ball in the 4th quarter, the Falcons opened a window and Tom Brady kicked the door down. For three quarters the Super Bowl, Brady and Belichick looked bewildered and lost. Don?t forget that.
In Week 1, the Patriots never got that chance to comeback, as the Chiefs brought down the hammer by keeping the ball on the ground in a 42-27 victory. While Brady gets all the credit for the Super Bowl comeback, he could not have done it without receiver Julian Edelman, who was severely missed in Week 1 after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. Against the Chiefs, Brady was missing receivers left and right and only managed to complete 16 of 36 passes with no touchdowns while taking three sacks. The Patriots were gifted at least 10 points in that game too. New England's biggest weakness coming into this season was their inability to cover an opposing team's top receiving threat. The high-priced signing of Stephon Gilmore was supposed be address that issue and be a game changer but it wasn?t, as Gilmore was burned for a touchdown the first time he was challenged by Alex Smith. New England made the pedestrian Smith look like an All-Pro after allowing 352 yards in the air. Don?t forget that either. Smith may never throw for 352 yards again, ever. Rookie runner Kareem Hunt had one of the best debuts in recent memory and added 148 yards on the ground and another 98 in the air by catching 5-of-5 passes. Don?t forget that.
We've heard the case for the Pats this week. They ?rarely lose two games in a row? and ?Tom Brady can't be as bad as he was in Week 1? are among the talking points. Even after a brutal loss, the Patriots still get the benefit of the doubt. It should actually be two brutal losses in succession. Five rings and a ?genius? coach will buy some big time slack in this market, which provides us with this great opportunity. Asking any team in the NFL to cover a touchdown or more on the road is a tall task especially for a defense that looked as bad as New England's did in Week 1. Maybe the Pats bounce like they?ve been doing for such a long time but even Hall of Fame QB?s reach the end of the line and frankly speaking, other than their history, there is nothing to like about the Patriots spotting a significant margin on the road this week.
New York Yankees -1? (-140)
Chicago White Sox +103
Cleveland Indians -200
Seattle Mariners +102
Minnesota Twins +105
Los Angeles Angels -150
1 unit bet pays 71
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074 :spotting: :em71: :drinky: :mj06:
MLB parlays this season: 2-27, +17.0 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted Monday, August 14th...winner #2, a nice daytime 4 teamer posted Thursday, September 14th...
Mengden is over his injuries now, been strong with all his pitches and command whilst tuning up in the minors, and his 1st start back in the big leagues last week, handling Houston...Leiter in a funk of late, those hot Oakland bats will get to him.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Twins fans will be celebrating Colon on Friday for "Big Sexy Night" as some in attendance will receive T-shirts with the 20-year veteran's No. 40 and his nickname "Big Sexy" on the back.
Sean Newcomb (L), 7 percent, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: Newcomb needs to improve his control, but he's racking up goodly punchouts along with keeping the ball in the yard. The Mets have been surprisingly effective versus southpaws the past month, but we're at the point of the season where risk-taking is necessary.
Rafael Montero (R), 5 percent, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Like his mound foe, Montero's primary issue is control. Over his previous 36 1/3 innings, Montero has fanned a respectable 32 with just one homer allowed, but he's issued 22 free passes. The Braves aren't especially patient, nor productive facing right-handers, giving Montero a chance at a solid effort.
Play: Yankees -1?
The Baltimore Orioles took a 13-5 beating in the opener of this four-game series with the New York Yankees in the Bronx. I predict another easy win for the home team Friday night.
Baltimore hands the ball to 24 year old Gabriel Ynoa (1-1, 4.19 ERA) who will make his seventh appearance and second big league start. He was charged with three runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 frames of a 4-2 loss at Cleveland his last turn. The Yankees are perfect 5-0 in their last five games when facing a right-handed starter and they've covered the runline in 12 of their last 13 victories.
Luis Severino (12-6, 2.96 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. They've won 10 of his 12 starts since July 8, covering the runline in each win. Severino is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts against Baltimore on the season and has the current Orioles roster limited to a .207 batting average through 121 at bats.
It's always a bit risky backing the home team on the runline, but note that the Yankees are 16-6 against the runline as a home favorite of at least -175 this season.
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
It may be too little too late, but the Mariners rotation is getting its stars back with just a few weeks to go in the regular season. Only 3 games back in the Wild Card race, they have a motivational edge in this game against the Houston Astros who have the AL West division race all but wrapped up. James Paxton takes the mound in this game for his first start off of the DL, and after his last stint on the DL in May he pitched fantastic against the Rockies. In addition to that, Paxton has dominated the Astros this season and has given up just one earned run in 20 innings pitched with a 20/4 K/BB rate. He has a stellar 1.84 FIP on the road and 1.77 FIP in the 2nd half of the season.
Interestingly enough, Charlie Morton?s 3 starts against the Mariners this year have all come against Paxton. He went 0-2 in those starts and carries a 4.58 ERA against the Mariners. One of the reasons he has failed to have success is his .287 BAA split against right handers on the year. The Mariners terrorize pitchers who can?t get righties out, as their stars are lefties and their marginal players have success in those situations. I?ll take Paxton in a rare underdog spot on the moneyline...
Miami @ MILWAUKEE
Miami -1? +187 over MILWAUKEE
8:10 PM EST. The Marlins just got eaten up in Philadelphia by scores of 9-8, 8-1, and 10-0 last night. That now runs their losing streak to five, not to mention that they?ve lost 10 of their last 11 games. Miami?s stock has hit rock bottom, which makes us instant buyers in this very winnable game. Jose Urena has upgraded his control by doing a better job of getting ahead in the count and pounding the zone. He has thrown his best pitch more often (Slider: 13% swing and miss; usage 2016/2017: 14%/27%). This is an under the radar pitcher with raw stuff, including a 96 mph fastball and decent change-up (12% swing and miss), that just keeps getting better. Urena has an elite 61% groundball rate over his last 10 starts too. Urena?s ERA over his last five starts is 2.91 with an xERA of 4.31. No doubt he still has work to do but he?s trending the right way to be sure and he gives the Marlins their best chance of winning among the rest of the starters. That said, Urena is not our target.
What are relief pitchers? Relief pitchers are former starters that usually have two pitches in their arsenal with only one pitch considered to be plus. Pitchers with three pitches (or more) usually end up as starters. No pitcher has ever started out their career wanting to pitch in relief. The goal of every pitcher on the planet is to start. A reliever is a former starter that could not crack the rotation because he just wasn?t good enough. Even Cleveland?s Andrew Miller was a starter for years before they gave up on him in that role and put him in the ?pen. Very few pitchers in the history of this game have made a successful transition from relief to starting. Jeremy Jeffress will attempt that here for the Crew.
Jeffress has appeared in 53 games this year, all in relief. He has appeared in 263 games in his MLB career, all in relief. The most innings he?s pitched this season in any one outing is 2.1 innings. Mostly, Jeffress has been asked to come in and get three unimportant outs this year when the game is not really on the line. As a member of both the Rangers and Brewers (he was traded at the deadline), Jeffress? team has lost 15 of the past 20 games he has appeared in. Again, he?s been asked to pitch in low pressure situations for the most part and rarely if ever in the eighth or ninth inning with the game on the line. Last year, he lost his closer role in July. Aside from that, his numbers aren?t even that good. He has walked 30 batters over 57 frames in 53 appearances this season. His first-pitch strike rate is 47% and now he?s going to come in with a different mindset than he?s ever had at this level and chances are very strong that it doesn?t end well for this career reliever with poor control.
South Florida (-18) over Illinois
Yes, this is a lot to lay here but we want to lay this on South Florida as we think it is a good time for them to get up to face a decent opponent, and with the nation watching this team we think they will perform in a big way. Keep in mind that Charlie Strong's team is 2-0 and ranked 21st in the nation but they are hardly impressive this year. This team just beat Stony Brook 31-17 as 35-point favorites, which is not very impressive. Plus, this team beat San Jose State in their Season Opener 42-22 as 21-point favorites (failing to cover once again) - and they were down a couple scores in that game early on as well. This is an opportunity for this team to face a competitor they will get up for and also look good doing it and to quell some fears. Illinois is a team that has exceeded expectations thus far for Lovie Smith as they were 6-point underdogs to Western Kentucky and won outright. The defense has given up just 28 points this year to their credit, which is Smith's strength. Having said that, to win this game, this team needs to score and score a lot as South Florida has a prolific offense and an improving defense under Strong. That should be the difference here in that South Florida's defense should hold against an average Illinois defense and South Florida's offense should still be able to move the ball with all the talent they have.
South Florida -17?
I released my "Game Of The Week" on Illinois last week. The Illini were at home and getting points against an over-rated Western Kentucky team. They rewarded me with a 20-7 victory. The Bulls represent a far more dangerous opponent though, one which has the schedule in its favor.
Illinois plays its first road game and does so on a short week. On the other hand, USF comes in well-rested, last week's game at UConn having been postponed due to Irma. While the Illini may have a 2-0 record, they've also been outgained by an average of 309.5 to 258, in terms of yards per game. That 258 number isn't going to cut it against an explosive USF attack.
The Bulls appear to be the "real deal" and have aspirations of a New Year's Day bowl game. They won 11 games last season and are experienced on both sides of the ball. Playing on ESPN, this is their chance to show the world how good they are. Don't be surprised when this one turn's ugly. Consider laying the points with USF.
Illinois at South Florida
Play: Illinois +18
South Florida?s offense will be a huge test for HC Lovie Smith?s Illini defense, which looks drastically improved for 2017. After yielding 31.9 PPG and 5.5 YPP last season, Illinois has allowed just 14 PPG and 4.3 YPP in the first two games of 2017. One of the games, the more impressive of the two, was a 20-7 victory over Western Kentucky, a team that has been known for its offensive prowess in recent years. Well, USF is a bigger challenge than that even boasting stud QB Quinton Flowers. However, the Bulls offense has certainly underperformed in the early going in this first season under HC Charlie Strong. While 36.5 PPG doesn?t seem like a low total, consider that the opponents thus far have been San Jose State (who allowed 34.7 PPG last year, and Stony Brook, a FCS opponent. At this point, USF is 0-2 ATS despite enjoying a turover edge of +4 in the first two games. Perhaps this team is a bit overrated at this point, and playing as a fairly large favorite at home versus a Big Ten team doesn?t make much sense. I believe that Illinois? remade defensive front will pose problems for the Bulls and keep them in the game as dogs
Well, nobody said the Friday night schedule was always going to be glamorous, but in Massachusetts and Temple we have a definite chance to make some easy money by playing against the overvalued favorite Temple Owls.
Temple lost at Notre Dame, but did bounce-back to nip in-city rival Villanova a FCS team, 16-13 by hitting a 49-yard field goal with about one minute remaining in regulation. That type of win does not inspire confidence in laying double-digits even against the 0-3 Minutemen.
UMass may not own a win yet this season, but they do have revenge on their minds, as they allowed a pair of scores in the games final two minutes back in 2015 at home to lose a 25-23 heartbreaker to the Owls.
Remember, Temple's Matt Rhule took the bigger, better deal to go to Baylor, and thus far the Owls rebuild has gone a little slower than expected under new coach Geoff Collins. The Owls mustered just 79-yards rushing in last week's nailbiter over the Wildcats, while they allowed an eye-popping 382-yards passing! UMass has a QB in Ford that can move the pigskin through the air, so why not take the points out for a spin this Friday night?
Minutemen plus the call in Philly on Friday.
Saskatchewan @ HAMILTON
Saskatchewan -4 -102 over HAMILTON
7:00 PM EST. We?re back in the CFL business tonight because we see an opportunity that we?re not about to miss. Just because we haven?t been posting CFL plays the past couple of weeks doesn?t mean we?re not paying attention. We are. The Tiger-Cats are now 2-0 under new head coach June Jones, which is pretty on paper but no game has even been played on paper before and we know better. Hamilton was gifted its first win on Labour Day after a three-hour lighting delay in front of the 25 fans that bothered to stick around through the storm. What looked like a fumble by quarterback Jason Masoli would have handed the ?Cats another loss but it was ruled an incomplete pass. Jones then took a shot and threw the flag after an incomplete pass in the end zone and interference was called on the defense. Just like that the Tigercats were in the end zone. It was a horrible call and a desperate attempt by the new coach that worked out. It was a bizarre win in a game that Hamilton was outgained in by 128 yards.
Last week, Hamilton literally hung on to beat Ottawa 26-22. The ?Cats were outscored in the second half by a count of 15-3 and the reason they won is because they didn?t turn the ball over once. Incidentally, last week, Ottawa?s #1 QB, Trevor Harris was injured and forced to leave in favor of Drew Tate. In summarizing, Hamilton?s two lucky victories since replacing Ken Austin came against Toronto and Ottawa, two East teams in what could be summarized as the worst East Division in the history of the CFL. Put no weight in Hamilton?s two victories. Put lots of weight on the ?Cats being outgained by 258, 201, 134, 161, 221 and 118 yards in six of its last seven games. The last time the ?Cats played Saskatchewan back in early July, they were outgained by 258 yards. Now the Roughriders are a much improved team while the Tiger-Cats are not. QB Jason Masoli is not an upgrade over Zach Collaros and is in fact a big downgrade. The Tiger-Cats have not turned a corner. They are the CFL?s worst team by far but two wins have changed the market mindset on them.
Saskatchewan is a tough, physical team that has swag again for the first time in over two years. Only twice this entire season have they been noticeably outplayed and those losses occurred to B.C. and Calgary. For the most part, the Roughies have been racking up big yardage and playing solid defense. They are also coming off back-to-back games against a very difficult Winnipeg team in which they outgained Winnipeg both games but split the home and home series. The only way Saskatchewan loses here is if they are flat after two big games versus Winnipeg. The good news is that they lost the last one and teams? are usually flat after a win, not a loss. We have not seen the Roughriders appear flat too often this year, instead, we have seen an intensely focused team that is on a mission to not only make some noise but also to get back the great respect they had for years. If that team shows up here, this one won?t be close and that?s what we?re betting on.
Memphis +3
The scoreboard results look decent for UCLA, with a 2-0 mark to open the season. Josh Rosen has put up some huge numbers, throwing for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions against Texas A&M and Hawaii. And yet, despite those monster stats from Rosen, the Bruins have all the makings of a bet-against team in early start TV action on Saturday.
Let?s start with this: Rosen has zero interceptions only because Texas A&M dropped the ball, with Rosen every bit as lucky as he was good in the Aggies late defensive meltdown. And we need to note the miserable spot here for the Bruins. They?ve got a major revenge matchup with Stanford on deck, coming off a remarkable comeback and an easy blowout. This game reeks of a legitimate flat spot for the road favorite, especially when we consider the noon Eastern Time start ? that?s 9 AM on the body clocks for the kids from the West Coast.
There?s another anti-UCLA factor in play here ? Jim Mora?s track record in games like this one. The results don?t lie. Dating back to the start of the 2014 season, my numbers show Mora and the Bruins with a grand total of three pointspread covers in their last 13 non-conference affairs, not a team to be laying points with thousands of miles from home with Stanford on deck!
But the biggest factor of all one that makes it very easy to support for Memphis in this ballgame ? is the failure of the UCLA defense in early season play. Again, the results don?t lie. In two games, the Bruins have been gashed for 663 yards, allowing a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. Hawaii ran the ball down their collective throats last week: 281 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per carry. That?s a real problem against a team like Memphis!
Make no mistake about it ? the Tigers have the skill position talent to trade points with UCLA. Senior QB Riley Ferguson is surrounded by Power 5 Conference depth at WR and RB; an offense loaded with playmakers. Memphis is going to spread the field and push the pace, both problems for the Bruins defense in early season play. And the Tigers are primed to make a statement, at home, on national TV, against a national powerhouse. Riley Ferguson: ?I?m ready. I know all of our guys are ready for it. Everybody?s going to be watching. It?s time to go out there and show everybody what we can do.?
Tulane at Oklahoma
Play: Tulane +35.5
I cashed a winning free play here in the blog last week on the Tulane Green Wave in their spread covering loss as double-digit underdogs against Navy. I think they are worth another endorsement as they head to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners. Tulane has opened the season 1-1 SU but more importantly 2-0 ATS. This is a squad that has taken major strides under the watch of second-year head coach Willie Fritz. The triple option offense has been firmly established and the level of execution, particularly along the offensive line, has gotten better as the Green Wave have averaged 243 ypg on the ground at a 5 ypc. They?ve also found a better quarterback this season with Jonathan Banks who with a 65% completion rate, 3 TDs and no INTs has shown the ability to throw the ball. Unfortunately, Banks was knocked out of the Navy game due to injury but Johnathan Brantley filled in admirably. The potential loss of Banks, while not ideal, shouldn?t have much of an impact in the short term.
Oklahoma obviously isn?t in the best of spots after last week?s monster road win at Ohio State. The Sooners were able to put the clamps on J.T. Barrett and OSU?s struggling offense while Baker Mayfield connected on 27-of-35 passing for 386 yards and 3 TD passes. Everyone by now is well aware of celebration that took place following the win and with their conference opener on deck, it?s very possible we don?t see a fully focused favorite on Saturday. And focused they?ll need to be in order to cover such a large pointspread. I?m sure they spent some time during the summer preparing for the option but a vast majority of the preseason was geared specifically for the Buckeyes and other Big XII foes. Tulane is feisty and proving to no longer be a pushover. They?re just the sort of squad that can quietly slip into Norman, stick around, and leave with an easy pointspread cover.
LSU @ Mississippi St
Play: Under 53.5
Mississippi State loves to run the football, grinding out yards as the clock moves, but they run into a ferocious LSU defensive line. The LSU Tigers have allowed just 10 points in two victories with junior tailback Derrius Guice off to a sizzling start out of the backfield. LSU's 2016 sack leader Arden Key will play after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury. Key had two sacks against Mississippi State last season as LSU notched a 23-20 win over the Bulldogs. LSU is on a 13-4-2 run UNDER the total with that great defense, including 15-5-1 UNDER in conference play. Seven starters return to a Mississippi State defense that has allowed a total of 21 points in two games. But the offense got shut down in last year's loss to LSU with 214 yards passing and 56 yards rushing on 1.8 yards per carry. Mississippi State is on an 11-5 run UNDER the total after a victory, as well as 11-5 UNDER after getting 40+ points the previous contest. Both teams are undefeated, so look for a monster defensive effort with more field goals than touchdowns.
New England @ NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS +6 -104 over New England
1:00 PM EST. The Saints played on Monday night and the entire country watched, as their poor defense was torched again and ended up being the reason that Sam Bradford was named Week 1?s offensive player of the week. That?s not all the negatives, as it was not pretty. Not pretty at all. The Saints appear to have three starting-quality running backs and are giving each 1/3 of the workload. Adrian Peterson (6-18) looked embarrassed to have such minimal playing time against his old team. Mark Ingram (6-17) wondered what happened to his 1,000-yard season last year while Alvin Kamara (7-18) just wants these old guys to get out of his way. The 29-19 loss to the Vikes on Monday night was a flattering score to the Saints. The biggest overreactions are always to prime time games and that applies here. The Saints figure to be better but what really sticks out to us is that the market is ignoring the Patriots poor performance, also in a prime time game.
When talking about aging quarterbacks, 40-year old Tom Brady has largely been left out of the conversation but that cannot be the case any longer. Over the last two games, the Patriots have been in a position to be blown out and the only thing that saved them in the Super Bowl was the complete meltdown by the Falcons coaching staff who couldn't figure out you should run the ball and kill the clock with a big lead. By continuing to pass the ball in the 4th quarter, the Falcons opened a window and Tom Brady kicked the door down. For three quarters the Super Bowl, Brady and Belichick looked bewildered and lost. Don?t forget that.
In Week 1, the Patriots never got that chance to comeback, as the Chiefs brought down the hammer by keeping the ball on the ground in a 42-27 victory. While Brady gets all the credit for the Super Bowl comeback, he could not have done it without receiver Julian Edelman, who was severely missed in Week 1 after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. Against the Chiefs, Brady was missing receivers left and right and only managed to complete 16 of 36 passes with no touchdowns while taking three sacks. The Patriots were gifted at least 10 points in that game too. New England's biggest weakness coming into this season was their inability to cover an opposing team's top receiving threat. The high-priced signing of Stephon Gilmore was supposed be address that issue and be a game changer but it wasn?t, as Gilmore was burned for a touchdown the first time he was challenged by Alex Smith. New England made the pedestrian Smith look like an All-Pro after allowing 352 yards in the air. Don?t forget that either. Smith may never throw for 352 yards again, ever. Rookie runner Kareem Hunt had one of the best debuts in recent memory and added 148 yards on the ground and another 98 in the air by catching 5-of-5 passes. Don?t forget that.
We've heard the case for the Pats this week. They ?rarely lose two games in a row? and ?Tom Brady can't be as bad as he was in Week 1? are among the talking points. Even after a brutal loss, the Patriots still get the benefit of the doubt. It should actually be two brutal losses in succession. Five rings and a ?genius? coach will buy some big time slack in this market, which provides us with this great opportunity. Asking any team in the NFL to cover a touchdown or more on the road is a tall task especially for a defense that looked as bad as New England's did in Week 1. Maybe the Pats bounce like they?ve been doing for such a long time but even Hall of Fame QB?s reach the end of the line and frankly speaking, other than their history, there is nothing to like about the Patriots spotting a significant margin on the road this week.
