BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 27
Philadelphia at Atlanta (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Braves suffered a blow this week when Mike Hampton went on the DL, but they?ve still got a huge edge over the Phillies in pitching (3.47 team ERA vs. 4.80 for the visitor) and should come out on top here. They?ve already beaten the Phillies in 4 of their 6 meetings this year (+$210) and have gone 12-5 (+$575) at Turner Field this year. The Phillies have been at their worst in night games vs. righthanders (only 4-13, -$1185) and two of these games are scheduled evening affairs. The Braves have the quality arms to throttle the visitors offense. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Phillies in night games.
Houston at Milwaukee (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Brewers were picked to finish last in the NL Central by most experts, but they?ve gotten outstanding pitching (3.72 ERA, 3rd best in the NL) and could wind up with a respectable .500 record if they keep it up. The Astros on the other hand, have been a major embarrassment (4.47 ERA, .249 team BA), having only won twice on the road in 21 tries (-$1745). Prices on Houston continue to be inflated, so we?ll ride the home team here, looking to profit handsomely if they come away with 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Brewers in all games.
Washington at St. Louis (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Cardinals are running away with the NL Central once again, but they don?t make money here at Busch Stadium (-$375 so far) and that opens the door for a scrappy Washington team that has exceeded expectations. They?ve turned a profit vs. righthanders (17-12, +$735) and won?t be seeing Mark Mulder, the home teams only southpaw. The starters in the St. Louis rotation have not looked very sharp in recent days (5.55 ERA last 10), but we?ll still catch a very nice underdog price on Esteban Loaiza, who has regained his form after a tough 2004 (+$200, 3.08 ERA). BEST BET: Loaiza.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The D?backs have staged quite a turnaround after last year?s debacle, and show no signs of slowing down (7-3, +$515 last 10 days with a 2.98 ERA among starters). The Dodgers, meanwhile, are fading fast, so the home team has a chance to take first place in the NL West. They?ve already won 4 of 6 in head to head play (+$255) and their numbers at Bank One are solid (14-8, +$455). We?ll pass when Arizona starts a lefty (LA 9-4, $470 vs. southpaws with 6.5 runs per game), but the righties in the home team?s rotation look too good to pass up. BEST BET: Diamondbacks when righty meets righty.
San Diego at San Francisco (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Padres have struggled against lefties on the road (1-5, -$460) but other than that they?ve shown little weakness through the first two months of 2005. Their pitching ranks 4th in the NL (3.83 team ERA)
and they?ve posted a 19-12 (+$695) mark against righthanders. The Giants can?t even rely on Jason Schmidt like they used to (4.72 ERA in 7 starts before landing on the DL) and their record vs. righties (12-15, -$480) sets us up to play on the visitor at least once or twice this weekend. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
Oakland at Cleveland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Indians were a healthy 6-3 (+$565) last year against a much better Oakland team than the one they?ll be facing this weekend. The problem is that the Tribe has been offensively-challenged all year (.237 team BA and next-to-last in total runs scored). Not the kind of team you want to lay odds with especially if C.C. Sabathia misses this series. We?re not in love with the weak-hitting A?s either, but we?ll take a shot with Barry Zito as the Indians are 3-8 (-$545) vs. southpaws, averaging a measly 2.7 RPG. PREFERRED: Zito.
Boston at N.Y. Yankees (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Red Sox have won 30 of the 58 games played between these two teams since the beginning of 2003 including four of eight in the Bronx in consecutive playoffs. That tells us that they won?t be intimidated by the revitalized Bombers. And, with the Yankees settling down after that long winning streak, we aren?t interested in backing that iffy pitching staff (4.44 team ERA) and laying all that wood. With New York still qualifying as the most unprofitable team in the AL (-$1270), we?ll take the defending champions in every game at favorable prices. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Minnesota at Toronto (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Twins and Blue Jays met in Minnesota last week with the Jays jumping up and upsetting Johann Santana, a WINNING POINTS Telephone Service winner, and the Twins coming back to take the final two games in the series. Buying into the theory that lightning rarely if ever strikes twice in the same place, we?ll back Mr. Santana (4-0 on the road with a 3.18 ERA and a .233 BAA) as the top play in the series. BEST BET: Santana.
Seattle at Tampa Bay (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Devil Rays have lost 11 of their last 15 games but help is on the way. Despite having righthanded bats like Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre and Brett Boone in the line up, the Mariners are a miserable 1-8 (-$720) against lefties averaging 2.4 RPG. Let?s load up on Tampa Bay southpaws as long as we don?t have to lay too much wood. BEST BET: Devil Rays lefthanders at -$150 or less.
Detroit at Baltimore (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Os were a perfect 6-0 (+$605) against the Tigers last year and have split two games in Camden Yards so far in 2005. Detroit is doing its most productive work on the road (+$320), but we can?t resist making the standout play Sidney Ponson in the series who is well on his way to becoming the Comeback Player of the Year. Ponson, who was 11-15 a year ago, is 5-2 and the Orioles are 4-1 (+$300) when he pitches at Camden Yards. BEST BET: Ponson/ Tigers in all other games.
Chicago White Sox at Texas (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The White Sox have cooled off somewhat after their incredibly torrid start. However, they?re facing a team they?ve defeated eight of twelve times (+$435) in the last year plus and that has been struggling at home especially against lefties (1-5, -$540), so we?ll jump all over Matt Buehrle who is 2-0 in his last two starts with 1.76 ERA. BEST BET: Buehrle.
Kansas City at Los Angeles Angels (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
It?s a battle between the under-talented Royals (6-14, -$415 on the road) and the overpriced Angels (10-9,-$445 at home). Only two LA starters are making money at home: Kelvin Escobar (+$60) who is on the DL and Paul Byrd (+$205) who has a mediocre ERA. The Royals? Runelvys Hernandez hasn?t won on the road, but his away ERA is a more than respectable 3.26 and his BAA is.229. He?s worth a shot at a big price. BEST BET:: R. Hernandez.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Braves suffered a blow this week when Mike Hampton went on the DL, but they?ve still got a huge edge over the Phillies in pitching (3.47 team ERA vs. 4.80 for the visitor) and should come out on top here. They?ve already beaten the Phillies in 4 of their 6 meetings this year (+$210) and have gone 12-5 (+$575) at Turner Field this year. The Phillies have been at their worst in night games vs. righthanders (only 4-13, -$1185) and two of these games are scheduled evening affairs. The Braves have the quality arms to throttle the visitors offense. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Phillies in night games.
Houston at Milwaukee (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Brewers were picked to finish last in the NL Central by most experts, but they?ve gotten outstanding pitching (3.72 ERA, 3rd best in the NL) and could wind up with a respectable .500 record if they keep it up. The Astros on the other hand, have been a major embarrassment (4.47 ERA, .249 team BA), having only won twice on the road in 21 tries (-$1745). Prices on Houston continue to be inflated, so we?ll ride the home team here, looking to profit handsomely if they come away with 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Brewers in all games.
Washington at St. Louis (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Cardinals are running away with the NL Central once again, but they don?t make money here at Busch Stadium (-$375 so far) and that opens the door for a scrappy Washington team that has exceeded expectations. They?ve turned a profit vs. righthanders (17-12, +$735) and won?t be seeing Mark Mulder, the home teams only southpaw. The starters in the St. Louis rotation have not looked very sharp in recent days (5.55 ERA last 10), but we?ll still catch a very nice underdog price on Esteban Loaiza, who has regained his form after a tough 2004 (+$200, 3.08 ERA). BEST BET: Loaiza.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The D?backs have staged quite a turnaround after last year?s debacle, and show no signs of slowing down (7-3, +$515 last 10 days with a 2.98 ERA among starters). The Dodgers, meanwhile, are fading fast, so the home team has a chance to take first place in the NL West. They?ve already won 4 of 6 in head to head play (+$255) and their numbers at Bank One are solid (14-8, +$455). We?ll pass when Arizona starts a lefty (LA 9-4, $470 vs. southpaws with 6.5 runs per game), but the righties in the home team?s rotation look too good to pass up. BEST BET: Diamondbacks when righty meets righty.
San Diego at San Francisco (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Padres have struggled against lefties on the road (1-5, -$460) but other than that they?ve shown little weakness through the first two months of 2005. Their pitching ranks 4th in the NL (3.83 team ERA)
and they?ve posted a 19-12 (+$695) mark against righthanders. The Giants can?t even rely on Jason Schmidt like they used to (4.72 ERA in 7 starts before landing on the DL) and their record vs. righties (12-15, -$480) sets us up to play on the visitor at least once or twice this weekend. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
Oakland at Cleveland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Indians were a healthy 6-3 (+$565) last year against a much better Oakland team than the one they?ll be facing this weekend. The problem is that the Tribe has been offensively-challenged all year (.237 team BA and next-to-last in total runs scored). Not the kind of team you want to lay odds with especially if C.C. Sabathia misses this series. We?re not in love with the weak-hitting A?s either, but we?ll take a shot with Barry Zito as the Indians are 3-8 (-$545) vs. southpaws, averaging a measly 2.7 RPG. PREFERRED: Zito.
Boston at N.Y. Yankees (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Red Sox have won 30 of the 58 games played between these two teams since the beginning of 2003 including four of eight in the Bronx in consecutive playoffs. That tells us that they won?t be intimidated by the revitalized Bombers. And, with the Yankees settling down after that long winning streak, we aren?t interested in backing that iffy pitching staff (4.44 team ERA) and laying all that wood. With New York still qualifying as the most unprofitable team in the AL (-$1270), we?ll take the defending champions in every game at favorable prices. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Minnesota at Toronto (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Twins and Blue Jays met in Minnesota last week with the Jays jumping up and upsetting Johann Santana, a WINNING POINTS Telephone Service winner, and the Twins coming back to take the final two games in the series. Buying into the theory that lightning rarely if ever strikes twice in the same place, we?ll back Mr. Santana (4-0 on the road with a 3.18 ERA and a .233 BAA) as the top play in the series. BEST BET: Santana.
Seattle at Tampa Bay (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Devil Rays have lost 11 of their last 15 games but help is on the way. Despite having righthanded bats like Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre and Brett Boone in the line up, the Mariners are a miserable 1-8 (-$720) against lefties averaging 2.4 RPG. Let?s load up on Tampa Bay southpaws as long as we don?t have to lay too much wood. BEST BET: Devil Rays lefthanders at -$150 or less.
Detroit at Baltimore (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Os were a perfect 6-0 (+$605) against the Tigers last year and have split two games in Camden Yards so far in 2005. Detroit is doing its most productive work on the road (+$320), but we can?t resist making the standout play Sidney Ponson in the series who is well on his way to becoming the Comeback Player of the Year. Ponson, who was 11-15 a year ago, is 5-2 and the Orioles are 4-1 (+$300) when he pitches at Camden Yards. BEST BET: Ponson/ Tigers in all other games.
Chicago White Sox at Texas (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The White Sox have cooled off somewhat after their incredibly torrid start. However, they?re facing a team they?ve defeated eight of twelve times (+$435) in the last year plus and that has been struggling at home especially against lefties (1-5, -$540), so we?ll jump all over Matt Buehrle who is 2-0 in his last two starts with 1.76 ERA. BEST BET: Buehrle.
Kansas City at Los Angeles Angels (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
It?s a battle between the under-talented Royals (6-14, -$415 on the road) and the overpriced Angels (10-9,-$445 at home). Only two LA starters are making money at home: Kelvin Escobar (+$60) who is on the DL and Paul Byrd (+$205) who has a mediocre ERA. The Royals? Runelvys Hernandez hasn?t won on the road, but his away ERA is a more than respectable 3.26 and his BAA is.229. He?s worth a shot at a big price. BEST BET:: R. Hernandez.
