BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 10
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
After taking the collar against the Phillies last year (0-6, -$605) , the improved Brewers have bounced back smartly. But the Phillies are heating up now that Jim Thome has returned to the line up and have won nine of their last eleven. Randy Wolf (12 runs in 38 innings last six starts) will start one of the three games and given how poorly Milwaukee performs on the road vs. lefties (2-6, -$405), we?ll tab him as the top play in this series. BEST BET: Wolf.
Boston at Chicago Cubs (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Red Sox have not distinguished themselves in inter league play over the past year plus (11-10, -$335) while the Cubs have played .600 ball (9-6, +$180). And, Boston has never been a world beater on the road (-$475 this year, -$985 during last year?s championship season). Chicago did well in stifling the red hot Padres (won three of four) in San Diego last weekend and are playing their best baseball of the year (9-2, +$675) and should capture the series, but we?ll take a stab on ex-Cub Matt Clement (+$210 on the road, 2.25 ERA in his last two starts). BEST BET: Clement/Cubs in all other games
Detroit at Colorado (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The key to this series is the Tigers? improved pitching staff (6th in the AL in team ERA) and how it will react to the House of Horrors otherwise known as Coors Field. Lefty starters are rarely successful there, as the Rockies are averaging almost 9 RPG when opposing southpaws, so we have our doubts. The Rockies are hitting almost 100 points higher (.321) in Coors than on the road and have doubled their run production. They figure to treat the young Bengals? arms as rudely as anyone else. BEST BET: Rockies in all games.
Seattle at Washington (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mariners might be able to squeeze out a profit in this bore of an inter-league match up. They won?t face their Achilles? heel, the lefty starter, as Washington has none and they?ve done reasonably well on the road (+$200) vs. righties. As long as Livan Hernandez won?t get a turn here, so as long as John Patterson is not on the mound (+$340, 2.70 ERA), we?ll take a shot on the visiting underdog. BEST BET: Patterson/Mariners in all other games.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Now that the Pirates have finally started to win at home (won seven of ten), they should be able to take advantage of the American League?s worst road team. And, since the Devil Rays have been equal opportunity losers on the road (1-7 vs. lefties at night, -$340, 0-5 vs. righties in the day -$500, 2-8 vs. righties at night -$590), there isn?t a single instance in which we?d recommend restraint. BEST BET: Pirates in all games.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Mets (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Interesting confrontation between a team that always seems to play well on the road (17-13, +$585) and the improved Mets who have been very tough to deal with at Shea (starters have the second best ERA in MLB). The Angels?offense has been anemic against southpaws (-$465 with only 3.7 runs per game), but they do reasonably well against them on the road, and their numbers vs. righties are outstanding (+$860). We?ll sit this on out for now. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Oh boy, here comes that dynamic Orioles? offense (averaging a MLB-high seven runs per game and hitting a MLB-high .318 on the road) into the Great American Bandbox, sorry, Ballpark against one of the worst pitching staffs in either league (27th in team ERA, 28th in home runs allowed, 28th in runs allowed). Four of the five Orioles? starters are making money on the road (+$1110) and we?ll back any one of them at what will be reasonable prices. BEST BET: Ponson/Bedard/Cabrera/Lopez.
Oakland at Atlanta (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves are in the thick of what is shaping up to be a thrilling five team race in the NL East, and they can thank a pitching staff that has registered a 3.61 team ERA, best in the league. And though their team BA is low, they?ve still made the most of it, averaging close to 4.7 runs per game. The A?s haven?t overcome the loss of Tim Hudson & Mark Mulder. Their season is essentially over, with a record well below .500 an inevitability. They?ve been terrible on the road (8-20, -$1160), and vs. righties (14-26, -$1225). That encourages us to go with Kyle Davies, who has been superb in four starts so far (+$235, 0.77 ERA in four starts). BEST BET: Davies.
Texas at Florida (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Marlins have lost 9 of their last 11 (-$950) and they are catching a hard hitting Texas team at the worst possible time (Rangers 3.44 team ERA with 7.3 runs per game last 10 days). The visitor continues to compile outstanding numbers vs. righties (28-15, +$1430, with 6.2 runs per game) so we?ll not hesitate to use them when that situation arises. We?re less enthusiastic about Texas vs. lefties (only 3.8 runs per game), but we?ve been so impressed by Kenny Rogers +$610, 1.62 ERA), we?ll play on him regardless of who Florida puts against him. BEST BET: Rogers/Rangers vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Houston (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Afterr allying in the second half of 2004 and coming within a game of reaching the World Series, the Astros have become an embarrassment in 2005 (21-34, -$1605, 2nd worst in the entire league). Most pitiful of all is their performance vs. lefthanders, only 5-14 (-$1085) with a pathetic 2.6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have been better than expected, with a nice profit in road games so far (+$410). Gustavo Chacin will get a chance to build on his impressive rookie stats (+$245, 3.36 ERA). Ted Lilly, would be worth a try as well, but his inflated ERA (7.62) will keep us off him. BEST BET: Chacin.
N.Y. Yankees at St. Louis (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Cardinals are perched atop the NL Central, and a good showing against the Yankees could help solidify their position. Their pitching has been outstanding 3.67 team ERA) and it?s hard to feel much confidence in the Yankees, who are currently the biggest money-burners in baseball (-$2115). Their pitching ranks 4th from the bottom in the AL (4.67 ERA) and their offense has been wildly inconsistent (only 2.9 runs per game last 10 days). We?d like to use the home team throughout, but their numbers in day games are weak, so we?ll only use them in Friday?s opener, since they?ve excelled so far at night (24-8, +$1215). BEST BET: Cardinals in night games.
Kansas City at Arizona (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Diamondbacks have fallen off somewhat in recent days (only 2-8, -$560 last 10), and we doubt they?ll give San Diego much of a run in the NL West as the season unfolds. But they?ve no doubt got enough left in the tank to lay out a sorrowful KC team, that checks in with a 8-20 (-$900) record in road games. They rank near the bottom of the AL in pitching (5.51 ERA) and hitting (.252 team BA). They?ll have to deal with a pair of hot hurlers in Brad Halsey (+$405, 3.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (+$310, 3.20) who look to good to pass up in this setting whatever the price. BEST BET: Halsey/Webb.
Chicago W. Sox at San Diego (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
One of the more attractive inter-league matchups, featuring two very formidable 1st place teams. The White Sox have parlayed a 3.54 team ERA into a 37-19 (+$1525) record, making them tough to go against at this time. The Padres have been equally impressive, improving to 34-23 after a shaky start. That record includes a phenominal 19-8 mark here at Petco Park (+$900) and with pitchers like Jake Peavy (+$850, 2.37) on the staff, it?s hard to back the road team. We prefer to stay on the sidelines until game day, perhaps jumping on on one side or another at that time. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Indians fired their hitting coach and with a league worst .253 team BA (averaing only 3.9 runs per game) it is easy to understand why. We?d be inclined to use lefthanders against them (Tribe only 5-9, -$410 vs. southpaws) but Kirk Rueter (4.27 ERA) is the only one who inspires any confidence. On the other hand, who don?t trust the Giants against righthanders (SF -$1085 in that situation) so we?ll only try our luck if a lefty is on the mound for the visitor (SF 5-2, +$385 vs. lefties at home). If we don?t get the right configuration, we?re out. BEST BET: Rueter if opposed by a lefthander.
Minnesota at L.A. Dodgers (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Dodgers have fallen way off the pace after starting impressively in April. They are now only two games over .500, and their rotation is in disarray (4.73 ERA among starters last 10 days). It might be worth taking a shot with them at a price vs. Cy Young winner Johan Santana (Dodgers +$380 vs. lefties with 6.3 runs per game). but they are dreadful vs. righties (18-21, -$415) and the Twins are profitable enough as visitors (+$410) to make taking them worthwhile. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Santana/Righthanders vs. the Dodgers.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
After taking the collar against the Phillies last year (0-6, -$605) , the improved Brewers have bounced back smartly. But the Phillies are heating up now that Jim Thome has returned to the line up and have won nine of their last eleven. Randy Wolf (12 runs in 38 innings last six starts) will start one of the three games and given how poorly Milwaukee performs on the road vs. lefties (2-6, -$405), we?ll tab him as the top play in this series. BEST BET: Wolf.
Boston at Chicago Cubs (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Red Sox have not distinguished themselves in inter league play over the past year plus (11-10, -$335) while the Cubs have played .600 ball (9-6, +$180). And, Boston has never been a world beater on the road (-$475 this year, -$985 during last year?s championship season). Chicago did well in stifling the red hot Padres (won three of four) in San Diego last weekend and are playing their best baseball of the year (9-2, +$675) and should capture the series, but we?ll take a stab on ex-Cub Matt Clement (+$210 on the road, 2.25 ERA in his last two starts). BEST BET: Clement/Cubs in all other games
Detroit at Colorado (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The key to this series is the Tigers? improved pitching staff (6th in the AL in team ERA) and how it will react to the House of Horrors otherwise known as Coors Field. Lefty starters are rarely successful there, as the Rockies are averaging almost 9 RPG when opposing southpaws, so we have our doubts. The Rockies are hitting almost 100 points higher (.321) in Coors than on the road and have doubled their run production. They figure to treat the young Bengals? arms as rudely as anyone else. BEST BET: Rockies in all games.
Seattle at Washington (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Mariners might be able to squeeze out a profit in this bore of an inter-league match up. They won?t face their Achilles? heel, the lefty starter, as Washington has none and they?ve done reasonably well on the road (+$200) vs. righties. As long as Livan Hernandez won?t get a turn here, so as long as John Patterson is not on the mound (+$340, 2.70 ERA), we?ll take a shot on the visiting underdog. BEST BET: Patterson/Mariners in all other games.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Now that the Pirates have finally started to win at home (won seven of ten), they should be able to take advantage of the American League?s worst road team. And, since the Devil Rays have been equal opportunity losers on the road (1-7 vs. lefties at night, -$340, 0-5 vs. righties in the day -$500, 2-8 vs. righties at night -$590), there isn?t a single instance in which we?d recommend restraint. BEST BET: Pirates in all games.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Mets (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Interesting confrontation between a team that always seems to play well on the road (17-13, +$585) and the improved Mets who have been very tough to deal with at Shea (starters have the second best ERA in MLB). The Angels?offense has been anemic against southpaws (-$465 with only 3.7 runs per game), but they do reasonably well against them on the road, and their numbers vs. righties are outstanding (+$860). We?ll sit this on out for now. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Oh boy, here comes that dynamic Orioles? offense (averaging a MLB-high seven runs per game and hitting a MLB-high .318 on the road) into the Great American Bandbox, sorry, Ballpark against one of the worst pitching staffs in either league (27th in team ERA, 28th in home runs allowed, 28th in runs allowed). Four of the five Orioles? starters are making money on the road (+$1110) and we?ll back any one of them at what will be reasonable prices. BEST BET: Ponson/Bedard/Cabrera/Lopez.
Oakland at Atlanta (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves are in the thick of what is shaping up to be a thrilling five team race in the NL East, and they can thank a pitching staff that has registered a 3.61 team ERA, best in the league. And though their team BA is low, they?ve still made the most of it, averaging close to 4.7 runs per game. The A?s haven?t overcome the loss of Tim Hudson & Mark Mulder. Their season is essentially over, with a record well below .500 an inevitability. They?ve been terrible on the road (8-20, -$1160), and vs. righties (14-26, -$1225). That encourages us to go with Kyle Davies, who has been superb in four starts so far (+$235, 0.77 ERA in four starts). BEST BET: Davies.
Texas at Florida (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Marlins have lost 9 of their last 11 (-$950) and they are catching a hard hitting Texas team at the worst possible time (Rangers 3.44 team ERA with 7.3 runs per game last 10 days). The visitor continues to compile outstanding numbers vs. righties (28-15, +$1430, with 6.2 runs per game) so we?ll not hesitate to use them when that situation arises. We?re less enthusiastic about Texas vs. lefties (only 3.8 runs per game), but we?ve been so impressed by Kenny Rogers +$610, 1.62 ERA), we?ll play on him regardless of who Florida puts against him. BEST BET: Rogers/Rangers vs. righthanders.
Toronto at Houston (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
Afterr allying in the second half of 2004 and coming within a game of reaching the World Series, the Astros have become an embarrassment in 2005 (21-34, -$1605, 2nd worst in the entire league). Most pitiful of all is their performance vs. lefthanders, only 5-14 (-$1085) with a pathetic 2.6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have been better than expected, with a nice profit in road games so far (+$410). Gustavo Chacin will get a chance to build on his impressive rookie stats (+$245, 3.36 ERA). Ted Lilly, would be worth a try as well, but his inflated ERA (7.62) will keep us off him. BEST BET: Chacin.
N.Y. Yankees at St. Louis (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Cardinals are perched atop the NL Central, and a good showing against the Yankees could help solidify their position. Their pitching has been outstanding 3.67 team ERA) and it?s hard to feel much confidence in the Yankees, who are currently the biggest money-burners in baseball (-$2115). Their pitching ranks 4th from the bottom in the AL (4.67 ERA) and their offense has been wildly inconsistent (only 2.9 runs per game last 10 days). We?d like to use the home team throughout, but their numbers in day games are weak, so we?ll only use them in Friday?s opener, since they?ve excelled so far at night (24-8, +$1215). BEST BET: Cardinals in night games.
Kansas City at Arizona (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Diamondbacks have fallen off somewhat in recent days (only 2-8, -$560 last 10), and we doubt they?ll give San Diego much of a run in the NL West as the season unfolds. But they?ve no doubt got enough left in the tank to lay out a sorrowful KC team, that checks in with a 8-20 (-$900) record in road games. They rank near the bottom of the AL in pitching (5.51 ERA) and hitting (.252 team BA). They?ll have to deal with a pair of hot hurlers in Brad Halsey (+$405, 3.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (+$310, 3.20) who look to good to pass up in this setting whatever the price. BEST BET: Halsey/Webb.
Chicago W. Sox at San Diego (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
One of the more attractive inter-league matchups, featuring two very formidable 1st place teams. The White Sox have parlayed a 3.54 team ERA into a 37-19 (+$1525) record, making them tough to go against at this time. The Padres have been equally impressive, improving to 34-23 after a shaky start. That record includes a phenominal 19-8 mark here at Petco Park (+$900) and with pitchers like Jake Peavy (+$850, 2.37) on the staff, it?s hard to back the road team. We prefer to stay on the sidelines until game day, perhaps jumping on on one side or another at that time. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at San Francisco (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Indians fired their hitting coach and with a league worst .253 team BA (averaing only 3.9 runs per game) it is easy to understand why. We?d be inclined to use lefthanders against them (Tribe only 5-9, -$410 vs. southpaws) but Kirk Rueter (4.27 ERA) is the only one who inspires any confidence. On the other hand, who don?t trust the Giants against righthanders (SF -$1085 in that situation) so we?ll only try our luck if a lefty is on the mound for the visitor (SF 5-2, +$385 vs. lefties at home). If we don?t get the right configuration, we?re out. BEST BET: Rueter if opposed by a lefthander.
Minnesota at L.A. Dodgers (3) 10th, 11th, 12th
The Dodgers have fallen way off the pace after starting impressively in April. They are now only two games over .500, and their rotation is in disarray (4.73 ERA among starters last 10 days). It might be worth taking a shot with them at a price vs. Cy Young winner Johan Santana (Dodgers +$380 vs. lefties with 6.3 runs per game). but they are dreadful vs. righties (18-21, -$415) and the Twins are profitable enough as visitors (+$410) to make taking them worthwhile. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Santana/Righthanders vs. the Dodgers.
