Friday Tips

Lumi

LOKI
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Friday Tips
January 21, 2010


The Friday night card in the NBA gives bettors a plethora of games to choose from, including several teams that have made plenty of noise recently. We'll take a look at five contests on the 13-game slate, including the big Southeast showdown in Atlanta.

Bobcats (21-19 SU, 25-15 ATS) at Hawks (27-14 SU, 27-14 ATS)

Charlotte looks like it is finally turning the corner, winning nine of its last ten, heading to Philips Arena to battle Atlanta. The Hawks haven't been too shabby lately, capturing six of their last eight games, while improving to 17-5 at home after Wednesday's win over the Kings.

Most of Charlotte's damage has come at Time Warner Arena, completing a 6-0 homestand, while covering four times. The Bobcats have found ways to cash on the road despite a 3-15 mark on the highway. Charlotte is 11-6 ATS away from home, including outright victories at Cleveland and Miami.

The Hawks have been up and down covering numbers at home as of late, going 4-4 ATS the last eight at Philips Arena. Atlanta is looking to avenge a 103-83 loss at Charlotte on November 6 as two-point road favorites.

The home team has won nine of the previous ten meetings, but the Bobcats managed to cover both matchups in Atlanta last season as eight-point underdogs.

Blazers (26-17 SU, 22-20-1 ATS) at Celtics (27-13 SU, 17-23 ATS)

The Celtics look to snap a three-game skid, as Boston will get Kevin Garnett back in the lineup following a ten-game absence with a knee injury. The Blazers, meanwhile, continue a four-game East Coast swing and will likely be without leading scorer Brandon Roy, who aggravated a hamstring injury in Wednesday's win at Philadelphia.

Boston has dropped three straight at TD Banknorth Garden, falling to the Hawks, Bulls, and Mavericks over the last ten days. The C's didn't help themselves with a come-from-ahead loss at Detroit on Wednesday as six-point favorites.

The Blazers dropped the opener of their road trip at Washington on Monday without Roy, but managed a 98-90 victory at Philadelphia. Roy returned and scored 10 points in 18 minutes against the Sixers, but tweaked his hamstring, putting his availability in doubt on Friday.

The Celtics are 4-9 ATS when laying between 5 and 9 ? points, while owning a 3-10 ATS mark the last 13 games at home. After starting the season 1-4 ATS as a road 'dog, the Blazers are 3-2 ATS their last five when receiving points away from the Rose Garden.

Thunder (24-18 SU, 25-17 ATS) at Grizzlies (22-19 SU, 24-16-1 ATS)

Two of the league's more exciting, up-and-coming teams hook up in Memphis when the Grizzlies host the Thunder. Both these clubs are right in the mix of the Western Conference playoff race, while each team employs dynamic scoring threats.

Oklahoma City is riding a three-game winning streak, coming off two close victories at Atlanta and Minnesota. The Thunder has turned into a tough out on the road, going 12-9 SU away from the Ford Center. Playing as a road 'dog has benefited OKC backers, with the Thunder compiling an 8-2 ATS mark the last ten in that spot.


The Grizzlies are coming off a disappointing loss at New Orleans on Wednesday, 113-111, but managed to cover as 3 ?-point 'dogs. Memphis has been money in the bank at FedEx Forum, winning nine straight at home, while going 6-2-1 ATS. Lionel Hollins' club tries to avenge a 102-94 loss to Oklahoma City on December 11, as that loss came following consecutive underdog home victories over Dallas and Cleveland.

Memphis is 10-1-1 ATS the last 12 after a game in which it scored at least 100 points, while seven of its last eight contests have been decided by seven points or less.

Lakers (32-9 SU, 18-22-1 ATS) at Knicks (17-24 SU, 20-21 ATS)

New York returns to the court following three days off to begin a four-game homestand hosting the Lakers. The Knicks are coming off a home-and-home split against the Pistons, but New York is riding a 2-4 SU/ATS cold streak.

The Purple and Gold looks for a victory to conclude a back-to-back following Thursday's loss in Cleveland. The Lakers possess a 4-7 ATS mark as a road favorite, but are 0-3 ATS the last three when laying points away from home. All four of L.A.'s covers as road 'chalk' have come against teams below .500.

The Knicks have shown plenty of inconsistency, especially at MSG, going 5-5 ATS as a home underdog this season. New York owns wins over Portland, Phoenix, and New Orleans at home, but four of the losses have come by at least seven points.

The Lakers are 5-0 SU the last five meetings against the Knicks, including a 100-90 victory at Staples Center in late November. New York cashed as 14-point 'dogs, improving to 3-2 ATS the previous five versus Los Angeles.

Rockets (23-18 SU, 21-20 ATS) at Spurs (25-16 SU, 21-19-1 ATS)

The battle of the Lone Star State takes place at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, with the Spurs trying to bounce back from a 105-98 loss to the Jazz on Wednesday. The Rockets have been off since a Monday overtime win over the Bucks, but Houston failed to cover as 6 ?-point favorites.

The Spurs continue a six-game homestand, trying to break out of a 1-3 SU/ATS slump following the loss to Utah. San Antonio knocked off Houston, 92-84 at Toyota Center on November 27 as one-point 'dogs. The road team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, while eight of the previous ten matchups between these Southwest division rivals have finished 'under' the total.

The Rockets have turned into the ultimate 'fade' as road underdogs lately, crawling to an 0-6 ATS mark the last six in this spot. Rick Adelman's team hasn't kept these games close either, dropping five of those games by at least eight points. It's unfortunate for this slump since Houston began the season 7-3 ATS when getting points on the road.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Cut down the Nets

Cut down the Nets

Cut down the Nets

Will Nets break NBA record for losses?

I?m fairly certain you aren?t an avid backer of the New Jersey Nets unless you are a glutton for punishment. After all, the Nets have a whopping three wins in 40 games entering play Wednesday. Say it again: 3-for-40 ? that makes baseball Mendoza?s line look Hall of Fame worthy by comparison.

The Nets (13-27 ATS) have one stinking road win (yet more ATS victorious visiting notches than the Lakers, albeit in six more games) and are the only team in the league with a double-digit negative point differential, rank last in scoring, field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage and, well, numerous other categories. My favorite might be that the Nets are 2-4 when they score 100 this year but 1-20 when their opponent does.

The 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers went 9-73, which stands as the worst record in NBA history. Do the Nets have a shot at this? The prop trade on the Nets situation has been released on a few sites, and obviously New Jersey is well ahead of the pace (currently at six wins) just one game from their halfway mark of the schedule. But it still remains doubtful that the Nets don?t reach double-digit wins. Several franchises have made a run at Philly previously, with the Mavericks in 1992-93 and 1997-98 Nuggets both coming the closest and finishing with 11 victories.


One reason to support the Nets winning at least 10 games is the relative parity in the league ? especially in the Eastern Conference. Entering play Wednesday, no NBA team had won more than five games in a row or lost more than four. Well, that is if you don?t count the Nets and their eight-game losing streak.

In addition, the grind of the NBA schedule wears down every team, meaning the Nets will catch some teams on the second night of back-to-backs when they are most vulnerable and no doubt taking the New Jersey stop for granted. Just look at last season when the Thunder started 3-29 and finished 23-59.

But this team simply has too much talent not to put together a few wins here and there, plus no professional wants his name attached to that record ? the Nets already established records for worst start to a season (0-18) and most consecutive games being outrebounded (23). Point guard Devin Harris was an All-Star last year (although there has been talk of trading him to the Wizards for Caron Butler), Brook Lopez is one of the top young centers in the game and shooting guard Courtney Lee started for the Eastern Conference champion Magic last season. Yi Jianlian has shown some signs of being a capable NBA player. That?s about it, however.

But quite simply, more effort is needed.

"I think it's very clear we don't play hard," said Coach Kiki Vandeweghe, who took over on the bench following that 0-18 start.

By the end of this long season, if the Nets still don?t have win No. 9, they will be the only motivated team on the court when facing organizations already eliminated from the postseason schedule. It something to consider in the final two weeks of the regular season if in fact Jersey remains inept heading into their April schedule (New Orleans, at Washington, at Milwaukee, Chicago, at Indiana, Charlotte and at Miami).
 

Lumi

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Time to jump on Bobcats?

Time to jump on Bobcats?

Time to jump on Bobcats?

Time to jump on the Bobcats? bandwagon?

Don?t look now, but Michael Jordan the executive ? the same Michael Jordan the executive who drafted colossal busts Kwame Brown (with Washington) and Adam Morrison (with Charlotte) ? is building a winner in Charlotte under Coach Larry Brown and the Bobcats suddenly are great betting value in the NBA.

Thanks to Monday?s 105-103 win over Sacramento, the Bobcats have won five straight overall and eight in a row at home. Charlotte is 8-1 in 2010 (5-4 ATS; lone outright loss at the Knicks) with six of those wins coming over teams currently at .500 or better. The Bobcats are very solidly in the current playoff picture in the East and looking more and more like the best team outside the Big 4 of Cleveland, Boston, Orlando and Atlanta.


At 20-19 (24-15 ATS), Charlotte is above .500 this late in a season for the first time in team history. Much of the credit for this turnaround has been the acquisition of Stephen Jackson from Golden State. The Bobcats are 17-13 since Jackson arrived. He and the underrated Gerald Wallace have been terrific together. In addition, guard Raymond Felton, who nearly had a triple-double in Monday?s win over the Kings, is making 46 percent of his attempts this season, compared to a career average of 40 percent. Basically, the additions of the offensive-minded Jackson and sixth man Flip Murray have meant less pressure on Felton to rescue bad possessions with a bad shot.

Charlotte is doing all this without center Tyson Chandler, who hasn?t played since Dec. 22 because of a foot injury. Chandler was acquired for center Emeka Okafor in the offseason in what has been one of the NBA?s most lopsided trade (for New Orleans) as Chandler was averaging just 6.6 points and 7 rebounds per game before getting hurt again. Wallace has helped big time to make up for Chandler when it comes to rebounding as Wallace is fifth in the NBA in rebounding despite playing small forward.

It?s on defense where this team is shining ? ranking third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bobcats are second in the league in opponent turnover rate at 17.2 percent and are the second-hardest team to get a shot off against. The defense simply should get better when Chandler gets back ? Nazr Mohammed is a nice backup center but is no Chandler on defense.

Certainly the Bobcats are far from perfect. While they have the second-best home record in the East (behind Cleveland), the Bobcats have just three road wins ? only the Nets have fewer. But two of those wins came in their last three road games, where they beat Cleveland and Miami.

We?ll find out if this team is for real starting later this week. After ending a six-game homestand on Wednesday against the Heat, the Bobcats play seven of their next eight on the road, including a six-game trip out West. Watch and see how Charlotte fares in that first road game or two before betting on them as it as a road dog on the upcoming trip, but prepare to get some good value if they start out well because these are the Bobcats, after all, and they will remain under the radar.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Today's NBA Picks

Today's NBA Picks

Today's NBA Picks
Charlotte at Atlanta
The Bobcats look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games as an underdog from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Charlotte is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JANUARY 22
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST
Game 801-802: Miami at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.519; Washington 119.044
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2); Under
Game 803-804: Sacramento at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.312; Orlando 122.837
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-9 1/2); Over
Game 805-806: Milwaukee at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.212; Toronto 120.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 8; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+8); Over
Game 807-808: Dallas at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.841; Philadelphia 118.318
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 195
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under
Game 809-810: Portland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.825; Boston 127.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 13; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 10; 186
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-10); Under
Game 811-812: Charlotte at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.529; Atlanta 122.797
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 190
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7); Over
Game 813-814: Oklahoma City at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.801; Memphis 126.479
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3 1/2); Over
Game 815-816: LA Lakers at New York
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.194; New York 117.586
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2); Under
Game 817-818: Indiana at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.203; Detroit 112.009
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Under
Game 819-820: New Orleans at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.482; Minnesota 115.012
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 207
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over
Game 821-822: Houston at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.573; San Antonio 124.819
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Under
Game 823-824: Chicago at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.354; Phoenix 122.040
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 218
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over
Game 825-826: New Jersey at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 106.697; Golden State 117.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 11; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7 1/2; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-7 1/2); Over
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Friday's best NBA bets

Friday's best NBA bets

Friday's best NBA bets


Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers (+3, 195)

Going back to the days of Don Nelson ? when the Mavericks first rose to NBA prominence ? there wasn?t much defense being played in the Big D.

Under new tutelage like Avery Johnson and now Rick Carlisle, the Mavs improved their defensive efforts but the offseason acquisition of Shawn Marion may have been just what Dallas needed to go deep in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Matrix rejected a Caron Butler jumper with 1.9 seconds left to secure a 94-93 victory over Washington Wednesday. Dallas recorded nine blocks and nine steals in the game.

"Winning on a defensive possession, you wouldn't say that in the past about the Mavericks," Jason Kidd said. "This year, we've really focused on playing defense. We looked at the last champions and said, 'Hey, they all played defense.'?

The Mavs blew some early leads Wednesday and failed to cover against an inferior Wizards team, but don?t expect the team to play down to the level of competition two games in a row.

Pick: Mavericks

Charlotte Bobcats at Atlanta Hawks (-6.5, 189.5)

A big reason for Charlotte?s turnaround season has been improved play on the defensive side of the ball. The Bobcats rank first in the NBA in points allowed, holding opponents to a 92.2 points per game average.

On Wednesday, Charlotte cranked up the intensity a notch and held the Heat to a season-low 65 points. Miami shot less than 29 percent from the floor and only hit two of its 23 3-point attempts.

The Hawks are no slouch either when it comes to shutting down opposing offenses. Teams are posting 97.4 ppg versus the sizzling hot team from Hotlanta and over the last five games the Hawks have held opponents to a mere 94 points per outing.

The over has cashed in three straight in this series, but don?t let that fool you. Not one total during those games exceeded 183 points and these two teams combined to score 190.3 ppg during that stretch.

The last time the total was posted at 189.5 in this series came in November of last season and the ?Cats and Hawks combined to score 171 points.

Pick: Under
 
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