...YTD...6-8...
Philadelphia +2.5
New Orleans -3
Oakland -3
Seattle Seahawks -6
NEP/Eagles under 46.5
Oakland/Detroit under 39.5
TN/NO Under 43
SD/Seattle Under 38
Good luck all youse guys!! :00hour :toast: :spotting:
ripped, stolen, cut and pasted from the internets:
Well the home teams and the ?under? have been the cash cows so far in the 2014 preseason. After the Hall of Fame game was played at a neutral site, the home teams went 12-3-1 ATS and 14-2 straight up in Week 1! Meanwhile, the ?under? is now a wallet-filling 13-4 including Hall of Fame week.
More relevant to our Trends & Angles last week, all underdogs went just 6-9-1 ATS, which was not good for our angle that said to play on all underdogs in Week 1. We did mention a good subset of that historically was to play on underdogs of +3? or more, and that subset split 1-1 ATS.
Luckily, our other general angle was to take the ?under? in games with totals of 36 or more and it turned out all but one game qualified, with the ?under? going a nifty 11-4 on qualifying plays!
Unfortunately, the angles regarding the three coaches we are following the entire preseason went 0-3, as the two we are playing on lost and the one we are fading covered the spread. Our Week 1-specific coaching angles did fare a bit better though going 2-1 ATS.
Before moving on to out Week 2 Trends & Angles, remember to check those teams? websites for player rotations and expected game plans, as the one thing that makes the NFL preseason both unique and beatable is that coaches usually reveal those things beforehand and then more or less stick to the plans.
In regards to Week 2 specifically, this could be the week that offers the most profit potential of any preseason week! That is because Week 2 has been a contrarian?s dream as a nice profit could have been made over the years simply by playing on teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and against teams that won straight up in Week 1.
You will see our three favorite angles in that regard when we get to the Week 2 General Angles. But let us kick off our look at Week 2 with our disappointing recap of the three coaches we are looking at the entire preseason.
Coaches To Follow
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): The tide could be turning for the negative here as after going 0-4 during preseason last year, the Steelers lost their opener to the Giants last week 20-16. That still leaves Tomlin at 19-11 overall in preseason since taking over as head coach, but remember that record stood at 19-6 after his first six years in Pittsburgh.
Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks): Carroll?s Seahawks were a perfect 4-0 in preseason each of the last two years and had won nine straight preseason games overall before their 2014 opener, but they lost 21-16 to the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch. That could make Seattle extra dangerous this week as Carroll generally likes to build a winning culture in these games and he is Seattle is still 11-6 overall since Carroll took over as head coach. You can also bet that Carroll will not tolerate any complacency after winning the Super Bowl.
Coach To Fade
Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons): This is Mike Smith?s seventh year are the coach of the Falcons, and not only did he have a dismal record before last week but he has also yet to have a winning preseason. He had also been 1-11 the last three preseasons with two 0-4 seasons including last year. Unfortunately for us, Atlanta opened up 2014 with a 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins, improving Smith to 8-17 overall in preseason as the Atlanta coach.
Now that the bad news is out of the way, let us move on to the great week-specific winning contrarian Trends & Angles exclusively for preseason Week 2 that we alluded to earlier, with all ATS records being over the last 14 preseasons since 2000.
Preseason Week 2 General Trends
Play on Week 2 underdogs coming off a straight up loss (72-33-2, 68.6% ATS): No that is not a misprint, as teams that have lost straight up in Week 1 and are then underdogs in Week 2 have covered at better than a 68 percent clip over 105 decisions in 14 years, and yet people still refuse to bet on preseason! These exhibition games are all about motivation, and in Week 2, teams that lost their openers are usually motivated to put forth a better performance to at the very least gain some peace of mind. Remember that talent means nothing in these games, so this angle even works if the underdog off a loss is among the very worst teams in the league.
Play against Week 2 favorites coming off a straight up win (62-46-1, 57.4% ATS):Granted this winning percentage is lower than most of our other angles, but the volume makes up for it as this still works out to +11.40 units at -110 odds and even more at reduced juice options. This is actually the exact opposite angle as our previous one. Teams that won in Week 1 often feel some sense of contentment getting a preseason win out of the way, and now the coaches can put a greater emphasis on evaluating personnel in Week 2, especially with the regular season dress rehearsal coming up in Week 3. Had the team lost Week 1, then most coaches would have had more of a balance between evaluating players and trying to get a win.
Play on any Week 2 team coming off a straight up loss against a team coming off of a straight up win (70-42-1, 62.5% ATS): This angle combines the two motivations from our first two angles, except that it applies to all games and not only underdogs, so this is one of our few preseason trends that actually points to some favorites.
Preseason Week 2 Coaches
Starting with the three coaches we are following the entire preseason, Tomlin is just 4-3 in Week 2 while Carroll is only 2-2, but Smith is 1-5 in Week 2, which is in keeping with his overall profile.
Other notable Week 2 coaching marks:
Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals, 8-3): Interestingly, coming into this season, Lewis was 5-8 in Week 1 (plus two Hall of Fame games) and 2-9 in Week 3, so it appears Week 2 is the week when he usually has his team ready to bounce back well from the opener, and once he gets that win he backs off a bit the following week. Well, the Bengals lost in Week 1 again this year to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Mike McCarthy (Green Bay Packers, 6-2): Similarly to Lewis, McCarthy was just 2-7 in Week 1 (plus one Hall of Fame game) entering this season before usually getting the best out of his team in Week 2. And again, the Packers lost last week to the Tennessee Titans.
John Fox (Denver Broncos, 4-8): Fox is the polar opposite of Lewis in that he entered this year 9-4 in Week 1 plus one Hall of Fame game and 8-4 in Week 3, usually making Week 2 his ?breather? week. And once again he opened up this preseason with a win while getting a little bit of Super Bowl revenge over the Seattle Seahawks in the process.
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Chargers / Seahawks Under 38.5
It's not generally advisable to show your hand to your opponent before it REALLY matters. These two teams face off early in the regular season so I don't anticipate much in the way of opening up the play books here. Even in a preseason game, Seattle is a tough place to play and I expect the Seahawks defense to be playing pumped up tonight after the L in Denver last week. The Seahawks offense struggled against Denver but again, I don't think they come out of the gates firing on all cylinders and will let the defense do the work for them. This is a pretty low number but it may even go down a bit more before kickoff. I smell a 17-13 kind of game here and even though it's Seahawks -7, if they cover that I don't think it will be in a high scoring affair.
Oakland -2.5
To say that the Lions were sloppy last week would be an understatement. There's just something about that team that can't quite get it together. Also sloppy? The Raiders. Between those two games there was a SERIOUS amount of bad football being played. I do think however that Oakland was playing the far superior defensive squad, on the road, and thus I'm willing to give them a bit more of a pass. Raider fans are just begging for something to be positive about, and like Jags fans were treated to last night, I think they'll get to see their new franchise rookie QB step out some more tonight. Carr should get plenty of work tonight and I think he'll have some success against this questionable Lions team. Moore and Orlovsky were serviceable in moving the ball until it mattered last week, and that was in the friendly confines of Ford Field. Tonight will be a different atmosphere and I think the Lions struggle to get points again. Oakland takes this one 23-16 .
Detroit at Oakland (-2.5, 39.5)
Keep an eye on how the Raiders? offensive line fares against the Lions? front four. Of the 13 penalties called against Oakland in the exhibition opener, four were false starts and three were offensive holding.
Also, handicappers will want to monitor the Lions? offense when starting quarterback Matthew Stafford gives way to backups Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore. Orlovsky led the Lions to just three points in more than 2.5 quarters of play in the exhibition opener. Moore, meanwhile, was 11-of-13 for 121 yards and a touchdown pass to win out the game.
With a 10-6 loss to Minnesota in the first exhibition game, Oakland fell to 3-6 against the number in preseason play in Dennis Allen?s tenure.
San Diego at Seattle (-6, 38.5)
The Seahawks? 21-16 loss at Denver on August 7 snapped Seattle?s 10-game preseason covering streak, a run dating back to 2011. In defeat, Seattle was penalized 14 times, but just once for defensive pass interference. Also, Seattle was not penalized for defensive holding or illegal contact.
San Diego emphasized the run in its preseason debut vs. Dallas, rushing 42 times and attempting just 16 passes. However, when the Chargers passed, they did quite well. San Diego quarterbacks were 14-of-16 for 243 yards against the Cowboys, with Philip Rivers going 4-of-4 for 61 yards in his lone series.
The Chargers are 3-2 against the number in exhibition games in Mike McCoy?s tenure as head coach.
The Linemakers? lean: Our Kenny White made the total 36 for this game, so he offers a small lean to the UNDER. ?When you?re looking at totals in preseason, if you have UNDER teams, go UNDER. If you have OVER teams -- like Chicago and Philly (last week) -- go OVER! They?re usually easy.?
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I want to get this out there now. I think this 46 is way to high here for preseason. Philly will play the starting defense much more in this game. They really have stepped up and the run defense has impressed. Nick Foles looked ok but i think he will struggle to find some rhythm on the road in NE this week. Chip Kelly will not show the entire playbook and will go for a more vanilla look with his starters..NE 2nd string defense looked bad last week i'm sure that unit will step up this week. To many mistakes last week cost Philly a win at the end with the 2nd and 3rd string defense..That unit as well will step up to make themselves noticed to the coaching staff...I think this line is way to high for two 2nd and 3rd units defenses that will need to step up..NE qb Mallet looked rather lost last week i don't think he will have much success this week again either. Gronk and Brady will both play..Brady did not start last week and i think he will be rusty going against a Philly defense that has some extra game reps..I think this one stays under..line is at 46 and 45.5..right now as they just dropped..Just a brief play as i think this line goes down.
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Seattle comes home for its opener, and this team is an absolute beast at Century Link Field in the postseason, regular season and preseason - especially for hard-driving coach Pete Carroll, who is 22-11 ATS in August. This team has loads of depth and talent, especially on defense, and even in losing to the high-powered Broncos last week, they only allowed 274 yards. On offense, their preseason QB rotation is loaded with three players who have a lot of NFL regular season starting experience in Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor. Coach Carroll demands physical play - and gets it. San Diego is in town for their first road game with nothing to prove after a 27-7 rout of Dallas. A year ago in week two in their first road game, the Chargers turned it over four times in a loss at Chicago, surrendering 33 points. These teams met early last August too, and the Seahawks won in San Diego 31-10, as part of a 4-1 SU/ATS Seattle preseason run. Go with the defending champs at home.
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San Diego/ Seattle Under 38.5: First let's note that these teams play each other in week two of the regular season and that should mean a very vanilla offensive game plan for this game as they don't want to show a whole lot here. Neither team was really explosive in game 1 on offense. The Chargers were better than Seattle, but San Diego also went up against a very poor Dallas defense. Seattle had their struggles on offense vs Denver and I look for then to have their struggles here vs a better San Diego defense. The Seattle defense looked in top form last week vs the Broncos, holding them to just 158 yards passing. They were run on for 116 yards and this could be a game where the Bolts will look to run a bit more. I see Seattle also running the ball plenty here. The Seahawks are 7-1 to the OVER in week two of the preseason, but with the teams playing each other in week two of the regular season, This calls for a scaled down offense from both teams and that should keep the scoring around 31 points or less.
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Can somebody please tell me why this total is 39? The Oakland Raiders scored six points last week against the Vikings and those six points were late in the 4th quarter. Raiders QB?s Schaub, and Carr both struggled last week and I don?t see much improvement this week from the Detroit Lions. The Lions offense was no better last week as Detroit was only able to produce 13 points against Cleveland and granted the Lions had some key players sitting but still it was against the Browns defense. I thought this total would be around 35.5 or 36 but 39 points ? I just don?t see it. Take the ?under? here
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6 points is highly unusual for any team to be favored in the preseason and it?s for that reason, among others, that this number should be taken seriously. It?s an attempt by the oddsmakers to entice people into taking the points. If it were a regular season game, Seattle would likely only be about 2 points higher at -8 or thereabouts. San Diego is coming off a 7-point win over Dallas in its preseason opener, where they moved the ball very well but this isn?t Dallas. The Seahawks lost their preseason opener in Denver and will now play its first game at home since their Super Bowl victory last February. The fans will pack the joint like they always do and make life difficult for the opposition like they always do but let?s forget all that for a second.
This one is all about backing a Pete Carroll coached team coming off a loss. Pete Carroll is a freak that hates to lose at any time and it doesn?t matter if it?s a game against a local high school team or a playoff game in January. He drills it into his players? heads over and over that the only thing that matters is winning. When his team scores in the preseason he celebrates like a madman before congratulating his players like they just completed a drive in the final minute of the fourth quarter to win it. In the first preseason game against Denver last week, there were several interviews with players and coaches throughout the game and the only thing any of them wanted to talk about was the scoreboard. When asked about the upcoming season, Seahawks players and coaches responded with these beauties: ?We need to score here? and ?we have the lead right now so that?s a good thing?. In his NFL coaching career, Pete Carroll is 8-1 over his past nine preseason games with his only loss occurring last week. The Seahawks also lost to San Diego in late September of last year during the regular season, in Seattle no less, and there is no fu**king way in hell that Carroll has dismissed that. Nobody has ever put more emphasis on winning in preseason than this freak and you can triple those sentiments after a loss and against a team he lost to last time out. Yeah, -6 is a ridiculous number in preseason but this isn?t some ordinary preseason team or coach. Pete Carroll is the reason you spot -6 in the preseason and the oddsmakers know it.
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Two teams that held joint practices sessions with each other on Tuesday and Wednesday will square off in their second NFL preseason game of the year Friday night on NFL Network when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 7:30 ET. The Patriots also held joint practices with the Washington Redskins before their preseason opener last week, and that did not end well with the Patriots losing the actual game 23-6. The Eagles also come off of a loss 34-28 to the Bears in Chicago, and what was significant about that game was the Philadelphia offensive reserves outplayed the starters after the Eagles were shut out in the first quarter.
Coach Chip Kelly has intimated this week that he may play his starters into the second period in Week 2 and that he also plans to work on some different formations, thus not being as "vanilla" with the play-calling as he was in the opener. In other words, into the second quarter at least, expect to see Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy in more or less regular season form in Kelly's hurry-up offense before the back-ups get summoned and the vanilla schemes of last week return. And how the Eagles perform in that first quarter and a half or so could ultimately determine the outcome of this game, although if the second and third stringers match last week's performance, Philadelphia may not stop scoring. Also expect to see more of Darren Sproles with the first team after he did not catch a pass last week, although he did carry the ball three times for 11 yards. The one setback for Philadelphia is that Jeremy Maclin, who is expected to take over as the primary receiver this season with DeSean Jackson departed, is again doubtful with a knee injury. That may not necessarily be a bad thing though as the Eagles can take a longer look at their second round draft pick Jordan Matthews who seemed nervous while dropping three passes in he opener but has excelled in training camp.
As for the Patriots, Tom Brady is expected to make his 2014 debut while major free agent signee Darrelle Revis is expected to make his New England debut. The difference though is that the Patriot starters do not figure to play more than one quarter and maybe even just a couple of series. The Patriots want to continue to take extended looks at Ryan Mallet, who was terrible in the opener in what was rumored to be a trade audition, and rookie Jimmy Garoppolo as that duo is still competing for the back-up quarterback job behind Brady (assuming Mallet is still with the team). Mallet started last week and was lousy completing 5-of-12 passes for just 55 yards with several of the incompletions falling at the feet of his receivers. There have been rumors of Mallet possibly going to the Houston Texans since before the NFL Draft, which may have been a reason Houston did not select a quarterback in the draft, but his opening performance looks like cause for concern.
The Patriots are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as preseason favorites. NFL preseason Week 2 underdogs coming off of a loss (Eagles) are a mind-boggling 72-33-2, 68.6 percent ATS since 2000.
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Preseason Recap: The home teams have won 15 of the first 17 preseason contests, including Chicago's comeback victory over Jacksonville on Thursday. Home clubs own a 12-4-1 ATS record, as the Bears failed to cover against the Jaguars last night, while the only road teams to win outright have been the Saints (at Rams) and Bills (at Panthers). The 'under' has cashed in 14 of 18 exhibition games (including the Hall of Fame game), including each of the last five contests since last Saturday.
Eagles at Patriots (-2?, 47)
2014 Preseason Records: NE (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), PHI (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Patriots (+3?) beat Eagles, 24-6 in 2013
Week 1 Review: New England was dominated by Washington, 23-6 as Tom Brady rested in the preseason opener for the Pats. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New England in exhibition openers. The Eagles fell to the Bears as one-point road favorites, 34-28, as Chicago scored the final 17 points of the contest.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Joe Nelson - Chip Kelly is now 2-3 S/U and ATS in the preseason and this will be a second straight road game which could take a toll at this stage in the season. New England is 6-3 S/U in the last nine home games in the preseason, averaging 27 points per game. Given Belichick?s respect for Kelly this is a game his team will take seriously and the Patriots should have opportunities early and late in this matchup.
Titans at Saints (-3, 43)
2014 Preseason Records: TEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), NO (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (+4?) beat Saints, 10-6 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Saints outlasted the Rams as short road underdogs, 26-24, as New Orleans was just one of two teams (Buffalo) to win on the highway last week. The Titans held off the Packers in a driving rainstorm in Nashville, 20-16 as -2?-point favorites.
Expert Handicapper Analysis - Never like to lay this many points in the exhibition season, but New Orleans played to win in game 1 and I see that trend continuing in Week 2. Hard to take away much from the Tennessee?Green Bay game since weather played a role, but playing in the Superdome is always a factor that greatly favors the home team. Drew Brees did not play in Week 1 and the Saints still managed to complete 27 of their 40 passes. New Orleans wins this game by double digits.
Lions at Raiders (-2?, 39)
2014 Preseason Records: DET (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), OAK (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Raiders (+3) beat Lions, 31-20 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Raiders fell to the Vikings as three-point underdogs, 10-6, as Oakland scored a late touchdown and failed on a two-point conversion in the final minutes. The Lions rallied past the Browns, 13-12 to cash as 1?-point home underdogs, as the lone touchdown came in the contest came by Detroit with 1:05 remaining.
Expert Handicapper Analysis - The Oakland coaching staff is fighting for its job this season and was very upset with the team's poor performance last week at Minnesota, as evidenced by the team's several fights this week while scrimmaging with Dallas. Detroit is not very deep on defense, especially in the secondary, which should yield opportunities to new Oakland No. 1 QB Matt Schaub, impressive rookie Derek Carr, and young veteran Matt McGloiin. New Detroit coach Jim Caldwell is from the Tony Dungy "low key" school of thought in preseason, with Caldwell going only 4-8 vs. the spread while head coach at Indianapolis and only 1-5 vs. the spread as a visitor.
Chargers at Seahawks (-6, 38?)
2014 Preseason Records: SD (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SEA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Seahawks (-3) beat Chargers, 31-10 in 2013
Week 1 Review: Seattle's eight-game preseason winning streak came to an end in a Super Bowl rematch with Denver, as the Seahawks lost 21-16 as one-point road favorites. The Chargers cruised past the beat-up Cowboys, 27-7 as 3?-point home favorites, snapping a two-game home losing streak in the preseason.
Expert Handicapper Analysis- It's obvious that Seahawks HC Pete Carroll takes the preseason seriously as he's gone 21-13 SU and 24-10 ATS in his NFL preseason coaching appearances, including going 8-0 SU combined in 2012 and 2013. The Seahawks did lose their preseason opener this season at Denver, but that was a huge revenge setup for the Broncos, and anyone who really watched the game could see that both coaches were making an effort to WIN. This will be Seattle's first home game since winning the Super Bowl and they should be welcomed by the loud and racous crowd that give the Seahawks the best homefield advantage in the NFL. The Chargers enter off demolishing Dallas and San Diego accomplished all it's goals in that game.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots
Two teams that held joint practices sessions with each other on Tuesday and
Wednesday will square off in their second NFL preseason game of the year
Friday night on NFL Network when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England
Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 7:30 ET. The Patriots also held joint
practices with the Washington Redskins before their preseason opener last week,
and that did not end well with the Patriots losing the actual game 23-6. The
Eagles also come off of a loss 34-28 to the Bears in Chicago, and what was
significant about that game was the Philadelphia offensive reserves outplayed
the starters after the Eagles were shut out in the first quarter.
Coach Chip Kelly has intimated this week that he may play his starters into
the second period in Week 2 and that he also plans to work on some
different formations, thus not being as "vanilla" with the play-calling as he was in
the opener. In other words, into the second quarter at least, expect to see
Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy in more or less regular season form in Kelly's
hurry-up offense before the back-ups get summoned and the vanilla schemes of
last week return. And how the Eagles perform in that first quarter and a
half or so could ultimately determine the outcome of this game, although if
the second and third stringers match last week's performance, Philadelphia may
not stop scoring. Also expect to see more of Darren Sproles with the first
team after he did not catch a pass last week, although he did carry the ball
three times for 11 yards. The one setback for Philadelphia is that Jeremy
Maclin, who is expected to take over as the primary receiver this season with
DeSean Jackson departed, is again doubtful with a knee injury. That may not
necessarily be a bad thing though as the Eagles can take a longer look at
their second round draft pick Jordan Matthews who seemed nervous while
dropping three passes in he opener but has excelled in training camp.
As for the Patriots, Tom Brady is expected to make his 2014 debut while
major free agent signee Darrelle Revis is expected to make his New England
debut. The difference though is that the Patriot starters do not figure to play
more than one quarter and maybe even just a couple of series. The Patriots
want to continue to take extended looks at Ryan Mallet, who was terrible in
the opener in what was rumored to be a trade audition, and rookie Jimmy
Garoppolo as that duo is still competing for the back-up quarterback job behind
Brady (assuming Mallet is still with the team). Mallet started last week and
was lousy completing 5-of-12 passes for just 55 yards with several of the
incompletions falling at the feet of his receivers. There have been rumors of
Mallet possibly going to the Houston Texans since before the NFL Draft,
which may have been a reason Houston did not select a quarterback in the draft,
but his opening performance looks like cause for concern.
The Patriots are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as preseason
favorites. NFL preseason Week 2 underdogs coming off of a loss (Eagles) are a
mind-boggling 72-33-2, 68.6 percent ATS since 2000.
Philadelphia +2.5
New Orleans -3
Oakland -3
Seattle Seahawks -6
NEP/Eagles under 46.5
Oakland/Detroit under 39.5
TN/NO Under 43
SD/Seattle Under 38
Good luck all youse guys!! :00hour :toast: :spotting:
ripped, stolen, cut and pasted from the internets:
Well the home teams and the ?under? have been the cash cows so far in the 2014 preseason. After the Hall of Fame game was played at a neutral site, the home teams went 12-3-1 ATS and 14-2 straight up in Week 1! Meanwhile, the ?under? is now a wallet-filling 13-4 including Hall of Fame week.
More relevant to our Trends & Angles last week, all underdogs went just 6-9-1 ATS, which was not good for our angle that said to play on all underdogs in Week 1. We did mention a good subset of that historically was to play on underdogs of +3? or more, and that subset split 1-1 ATS.
Luckily, our other general angle was to take the ?under? in games with totals of 36 or more and it turned out all but one game qualified, with the ?under? going a nifty 11-4 on qualifying plays!
Unfortunately, the angles regarding the three coaches we are following the entire preseason went 0-3, as the two we are playing on lost and the one we are fading covered the spread. Our Week 1-specific coaching angles did fare a bit better though going 2-1 ATS.
Before moving on to out Week 2 Trends & Angles, remember to check those teams? websites for player rotations and expected game plans, as the one thing that makes the NFL preseason both unique and beatable is that coaches usually reveal those things beforehand and then more or less stick to the plans.
In regards to Week 2 specifically, this could be the week that offers the most profit potential of any preseason week! That is because Week 2 has been a contrarian?s dream as a nice profit could have been made over the years simply by playing on teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and against teams that won straight up in Week 1.
You will see our three favorite angles in that regard when we get to the Week 2 General Angles. But let us kick off our look at Week 2 with our disappointing recap of the three coaches we are looking at the entire preseason.
Coaches To Follow
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): The tide could be turning for the negative here as after going 0-4 during preseason last year, the Steelers lost their opener to the Giants last week 20-16. That still leaves Tomlin at 19-11 overall in preseason since taking over as head coach, but remember that record stood at 19-6 after his first six years in Pittsburgh.
Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks): Carroll?s Seahawks were a perfect 4-0 in preseason each of the last two years and had won nine straight preseason games overall before their 2014 opener, but they lost 21-16 to the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch. That could make Seattle extra dangerous this week as Carroll generally likes to build a winning culture in these games and he is Seattle is still 11-6 overall since Carroll took over as head coach. You can also bet that Carroll will not tolerate any complacency after winning the Super Bowl.
Coach To Fade
Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons): This is Mike Smith?s seventh year are the coach of the Falcons, and not only did he have a dismal record before last week but he has also yet to have a winning preseason. He had also been 1-11 the last three preseasons with two 0-4 seasons including last year. Unfortunately for us, Atlanta opened up 2014 with a 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins, improving Smith to 8-17 overall in preseason as the Atlanta coach.
Now that the bad news is out of the way, let us move on to the great week-specific winning contrarian Trends & Angles exclusively for preseason Week 2 that we alluded to earlier, with all ATS records being over the last 14 preseasons since 2000.
Preseason Week 2 General Trends
Play on Week 2 underdogs coming off a straight up loss (72-33-2, 68.6% ATS): No that is not a misprint, as teams that have lost straight up in Week 1 and are then underdogs in Week 2 have covered at better than a 68 percent clip over 105 decisions in 14 years, and yet people still refuse to bet on preseason! These exhibition games are all about motivation, and in Week 2, teams that lost their openers are usually motivated to put forth a better performance to at the very least gain some peace of mind. Remember that talent means nothing in these games, so this angle even works if the underdog off a loss is among the very worst teams in the league.
Play against Week 2 favorites coming off a straight up win (62-46-1, 57.4% ATS):Granted this winning percentage is lower than most of our other angles, but the volume makes up for it as this still works out to +11.40 units at -110 odds and even more at reduced juice options. This is actually the exact opposite angle as our previous one. Teams that won in Week 1 often feel some sense of contentment getting a preseason win out of the way, and now the coaches can put a greater emphasis on evaluating personnel in Week 2, especially with the regular season dress rehearsal coming up in Week 3. Had the team lost Week 1, then most coaches would have had more of a balance between evaluating players and trying to get a win.
Play on any Week 2 team coming off a straight up loss against a team coming off of a straight up win (70-42-1, 62.5% ATS): This angle combines the two motivations from our first two angles, except that it applies to all games and not only underdogs, so this is one of our few preseason trends that actually points to some favorites.
Preseason Week 2 Coaches
Starting with the three coaches we are following the entire preseason, Tomlin is just 4-3 in Week 2 while Carroll is only 2-2, but Smith is 1-5 in Week 2, which is in keeping with his overall profile.
Other notable Week 2 coaching marks:
Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals, 8-3): Interestingly, coming into this season, Lewis was 5-8 in Week 1 (plus two Hall of Fame games) and 2-9 in Week 3, so it appears Week 2 is the week when he usually has his team ready to bounce back well from the opener, and once he gets that win he backs off a bit the following week. Well, the Bengals lost in Week 1 again this year to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Mike McCarthy (Green Bay Packers, 6-2): Similarly to Lewis, McCarthy was just 2-7 in Week 1 (plus one Hall of Fame game) entering this season before usually getting the best out of his team in Week 2. And again, the Packers lost last week to the Tennessee Titans.
John Fox (Denver Broncos, 4-8): Fox is the polar opposite of Lewis in that he entered this year 9-4 in Week 1 plus one Hall of Fame game and 8-4 in Week 3, usually making Week 2 his ?breather? week. And once again he opened up this preseason with a win while getting a little bit of Super Bowl revenge over the Seattle Seahawks in the process.
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Chargers / Seahawks Under 38.5
It's not generally advisable to show your hand to your opponent before it REALLY matters. These two teams face off early in the regular season so I don't anticipate much in the way of opening up the play books here. Even in a preseason game, Seattle is a tough place to play and I expect the Seahawks defense to be playing pumped up tonight after the L in Denver last week. The Seahawks offense struggled against Denver but again, I don't think they come out of the gates firing on all cylinders and will let the defense do the work for them. This is a pretty low number but it may even go down a bit more before kickoff. I smell a 17-13 kind of game here and even though it's Seahawks -7, if they cover that I don't think it will be in a high scoring affair.
Oakland -2.5
To say that the Lions were sloppy last week would be an understatement. There's just something about that team that can't quite get it together. Also sloppy? The Raiders. Between those two games there was a SERIOUS amount of bad football being played. I do think however that Oakland was playing the far superior defensive squad, on the road, and thus I'm willing to give them a bit more of a pass. Raider fans are just begging for something to be positive about, and like Jags fans were treated to last night, I think they'll get to see their new franchise rookie QB step out some more tonight. Carr should get plenty of work tonight and I think he'll have some success against this questionable Lions team. Moore and Orlovsky were serviceable in moving the ball until it mattered last week, and that was in the friendly confines of Ford Field. Tonight will be a different atmosphere and I think the Lions struggle to get points again. Oakland takes this one 23-16 .
Detroit at Oakland (-2.5, 39.5)
Keep an eye on how the Raiders? offensive line fares against the Lions? front four. Of the 13 penalties called against Oakland in the exhibition opener, four were false starts and three were offensive holding.
Also, handicappers will want to monitor the Lions? offense when starting quarterback Matthew Stafford gives way to backups Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore. Orlovsky led the Lions to just three points in more than 2.5 quarters of play in the exhibition opener. Moore, meanwhile, was 11-of-13 for 121 yards and a touchdown pass to win out the game.
With a 10-6 loss to Minnesota in the first exhibition game, Oakland fell to 3-6 against the number in preseason play in Dennis Allen?s tenure.
San Diego at Seattle (-6, 38.5)
The Seahawks? 21-16 loss at Denver on August 7 snapped Seattle?s 10-game preseason covering streak, a run dating back to 2011. In defeat, Seattle was penalized 14 times, but just once for defensive pass interference. Also, Seattle was not penalized for defensive holding or illegal contact.
San Diego emphasized the run in its preseason debut vs. Dallas, rushing 42 times and attempting just 16 passes. However, when the Chargers passed, they did quite well. San Diego quarterbacks were 14-of-16 for 243 yards against the Cowboys, with Philip Rivers going 4-of-4 for 61 yards in his lone series.
The Chargers are 3-2 against the number in exhibition games in Mike McCoy?s tenure as head coach.
The Linemakers? lean: Our Kenny White made the total 36 for this game, so he offers a small lean to the UNDER. ?When you?re looking at totals in preseason, if you have UNDER teams, go UNDER. If you have OVER teams -- like Chicago and Philly (last week) -- go OVER! They?re usually easy.?
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I want to get this out there now. I think this 46 is way to high here for preseason. Philly will play the starting defense much more in this game. They really have stepped up and the run defense has impressed. Nick Foles looked ok but i think he will struggle to find some rhythm on the road in NE this week. Chip Kelly will not show the entire playbook and will go for a more vanilla look with his starters..NE 2nd string defense looked bad last week i'm sure that unit will step up this week. To many mistakes last week cost Philly a win at the end with the 2nd and 3rd string defense..That unit as well will step up to make themselves noticed to the coaching staff...I think this line is way to high for two 2nd and 3rd units defenses that will need to step up..NE qb Mallet looked rather lost last week i don't think he will have much success this week again either. Gronk and Brady will both play..Brady did not start last week and i think he will be rusty going against a Philly defense that has some extra game reps..I think this one stays under..line is at 46 and 45.5..right now as they just dropped..Just a brief play as i think this line goes down.
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Seattle comes home for its opener, and this team is an absolute beast at Century Link Field in the postseason, regular season and preseason - especially for hard-driving coach Pete Carroll, who is 22-11 ATS in August. This team has loads of depth and talent, especially on defense, and even in losing to the high-powered Broncos last week, they only allowed 274 yards. On offense, their preseason QB rotation is loaded with three players who have a lot of NFL regular season starting experience in Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor. Coach Carroll demands physical play - and gets it. San Diego is in town for their first road game with nothing to prove after a 27-7 rout of Dallas. A year ago in week two in their first road game, the Chargers turned it over four times in a loss at Chicago, surrendering 33 points. These teams met early last August too, and the Seahawks won in San Diego 31-10, as part of a 4-1 SU/ATS Seattle preseason run. Go with the defending champs at home.
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San Diego/ Seattle Under 38.5: First let's note that these teams play each other in week two of the regular season and that should mean a very vanilla offensive game plan for this game as they don't want to show a whole lot here. Neither team was really explosive in game 1 on offense. The Chargers were better than Seattle, but San Diego also went up against a very poor Dallas defense. Seattle had their struggles on offense vs Denver and I look for then to have their struggles here vs a better San Diego defense. The Seattle defense looked in top form last week vs the Broncos, holding them to just 158 yards passing. They were run on for 116 yards and this could be a game where the Bolts will look to run a bit more. I see Seattle also running the ball plenty here. The Seahawks are 7-1 to the OVER in week two of the preseason, but with the teams playing each other in week two of the regular season, This calls for a scaled down offense from both teams and that should keep the scoring around 31 points or less.
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Can somebody please tell me why this total is 39? The Oakland Raiders scored six points last week against the Vikings and those six points were late in the 4th quarter. Raiders QB?s Schaub, and Carr both struggled last week and I don?t see much improvement this week from the Detroit Lions. The Lions offense was no better last week as Detroit was only able to produce 13 points against Cleveland and granted the Lions had some key players sitting but still it was against the Browns defense. I thought this total would be around 35.5 or 36 but 39 points ? I just don?t see it. Take the ?under? here
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6 points is highly unusual for any team to be favored in the preseason and it?s for that reason, among others, that this number should be taken seriously. It?s an attempt by the oddsmakers to entice people into taking the points. If it were a regular season game, Seattle would likely only be about 2 points higher at -8 or thereabouts. San Diego is coming off a 7-point win over Dallas in its preseason opener, where they moved the ball very well but this isn?t Dallas. The Seahawks lost their preseason opener in Denver and will now play its first game at home since their Super Bowl victory last February. The fans will pack the joint like they always do and make life difficult for the opposition like they always do but let?s forget all that for a second.
This one is all about backing a Pete Carroll coached team coming off a loss. Pete Carroll is a freak that hates to lose at any time and it doesn?t matter if it?s a game against a local high school team or a playoff game in January. He drills it into his players? heads over and over that the only thing that matters is winning. When his team scores in the preseason he celebrates like a madman before congratulating his players like they just completed a drive in the final minute of the fourth quarter to win it. In the first preseason game against Denver last week, there were several interviews with players and coaches throughout the game and the only thing any of them wanted to talk about was the scoreboard. When asked about the upcoming season, Seahawks players and coaches responded with these beauties: ?We need to score here? and ?we have the lead right now so that?s a good thing?. In his NFL coaching career, Pete Carroll is 8-1 over his past nine preseason games with his only loss occurring last week. The Seahawks also lost to San Diego in late September of last year during the regular season, in Seattle no less, and there is no fu**king way in hell that Carroll has dismissed that. Nobody has ever put more emphasis on winning in preseason than this freak and you can triple those sentiments after a loss and against a team he lost to last time out. Yeah, -6 is a ridiculous number in preseason but this isn?t some ordinary preseason team or coach. Pete Carroll is the reason you spot -6 in the preseason and the oddsmakers know it.
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Two teams that held joint practices sessions with each other on Tuesday and Wednesday will square off in their second NFL preseason game of the year Friday night on NFL Network when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 7:30 ET. The Patriots also held joint practices with the Washington Redskins before their preseason opener last week, and that did not end well with the Patriots losing the actual game 23-6. The Eagles also come off of a loss 34-28 to the Bears in Chicago, and what was significant about that game was the Philadelphia offensive reserves outplayed the starters after the Eagles were shut out in the first quarter.
Coach Chip Kelly has intimated this week that he may play his starters into the second period in Week 2 and that he also plans to work on some different formations, thus not being as "vanilla" with the play-calling as he was in the opener. In other words, into the second quarter at least, expect to see Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy in more or less regular season form in Kelly's hurry-up offense before the back-ups get summoned and the vanilla schemes of last week return. And how the Eagles perform in that first quarter and a half or so could ultimately determine the outcome of this game, although if the second and third stringers match last week's performance, Philadelphia may not stop scoring. Also expect to see more of Darren Sproles with the first team after he did not catch a pass last week, although he did carry the ball three times for 11 yards. The one setback for Philadelphia is that Jeremy Maclin, who is expected to take over as the primary receiver this season with DeSean Jackson departed, is again doubtful with a knee injury. That may not necessarily be a bad thing though as the Eagles can take a longer look at their second round draft pick Jordan Matthews who seemed nervous while dropping three passes in he opener but has excelled in training camp.
As for the Patriots, Tom Brady is expected to make his 2014 debut while major free agent signee Darrelle Revis is expected to make his New England debut. The difference though is that the Patriot starters do not figure to play more than one quarter and maybe even just a couple of series. The Patriots want to continue to take extended looks at Ryan Mallet, who was terrible in the opener in what was rumored to be a trade audition, and rookie Jimmy Garoppolo as that duo is still competing for the back-up quarterback job behind Brady (assuming Mallet is still with the team). Mallet started last week and was lousy completing 5-of-12 passes for just 55 yards with several of the incompletions falling at the feet of his receivers. There have been rumors of Mallet possibly going to the Houston Texans since before the NFL Draft, which may have been a reason Houston did not select a quarterback in the draft, but his opening performance looks like cause for concern.
The Patriots are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as preseason favorites. NFL preseason Week 2 underdogs coming off of a loss (Eagles) are a mind-boggling 72-33-2, 68.6 percent ATS since 2000.
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Preseason Recap: The home teams have won 15 of the first 17 preseason contests, including Chicago's comeback victory over Jacksonville on Thursday. Home clubs own a 12-4-1 ATS record, as the Bears failed to cover against the Jaguars last night, while the only road teams to win outright have been the Saints (at Rams) and Bills (at Panthers). The 'under' has cashed in 14 of 18 exhibition games (including the Hall of Fame game), including each of the last five contests since last Saturday.
Eagles at Patriots (-2?, 47)
2014 Preseason Records: NE (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), PHI (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Patriots (+3?) beat Eagles, 24-6 in 2013
Week 1 Review: New England was dominated by Washington, 23-6 as Tom Brady rested in the preseason opener for the Pats. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New England in exhibition openers. The Eagles fell to the Bears as one-point road favorites, 34-28, as Chicago scored the final 17 points of the contest.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Joe Nelson - Chip Kelly is now 2-3 S/U and ATS in the preseason and this will be a second straight road game which could take a toll at this stage in the season. New England is 6-3 S/U in the last nine home games in the preseason, averaging 27 points per game. Given Belichick?s respect for Kelly this is a game his team will take seriously and the Patriots should have opportunities early and late in this matchup.
Titans at Saints (-3, 43)
2014 Preseason Records: TEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), NO (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (+4?) beat Saints, 10-6 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Saints outlasted the Rams as short road underdogs, 26-24, as New Orleans was just one of two teams (Buffalo) to win on the highway last week. The Titans held off the Packers in a driving rainstorm in Nashville, 20-16 as -2?-point favorites.
Expert Handicapper Analysis - Never like to lay this many points in the exhibition season, but New Orleans played to win in game 1 and I see that trend continuing in Week 2. Hard to take away much from the Tennessee?Green Bay game since weather played a role, but playing in the Superdome is always a factor that greatly favors the home team. Drew Brees did not play in Week 1 and the Saints still managed to complete 27 of their 40 passes. New Orleans wins this game by double digits.
Lions at Raiders (-2?, 39)
2014 Preseason Records: DET (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), OAK (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Raiders (+3) beat Lions, 31-20 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Raiders fell to the Vikings as three-point underdogs, 10-6, as Oakland scored a late touchdown and failed on a two-point conversion in the final minutes. The Lions rallied past the Browns, 13-12 to cash as 1?-point home underdogs, as the lone touchdown came in the contest came by Detroit with 1:05 remaining.
Expert Handicapper Analysis - The Oakland coaching staff is fighting for its job this season and was very upset with the team's poor performance last week at Minnesota, as evidenced by the team's several fights this week while scrimmaging with Dallas. Detroit is not very deep on defense, especially in the secondary, which should yield opportunities to new Oakland No. 1 QB Matt Schaub, impressive rookie Derek Carr, and young veteran Matt McGloiin. New Detroit coach Jim Caldwell is from the Tony Dungy "low key" school of thought in preseason, with Caldwell going only 4-8 vs. the spread while head coach at Indianapolis and only 1-5 vs. the spread as a visitor.
Chargers at Seahawks (-6, 38?)
2014 Preseason Records: SD (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SEA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Seahawks (-3) beat Chargers, 31-10 in 2013
Week 1 Review: Seattle's eight-game preseason winning streak came to an end in a Super Bowl rematch with Denver, as the Seahawks lost 21-16 as one-point road favorites. The Chargers cruised past the beat-up Cowboys, 27-7 as 3?-point home favorites, snapping a two-game home losing streak in the preseason.
Expert Handicapper Analysis- It's obvious that Seahawks HC Pete Carroll takes the preseason seriously as he's gone 21-13 SU and 24-10 ATS in his NFL preseason coaching appearances, including going 8-0 SU combined in 2012 and 2013. The Seahawks did lose their preseason opener this season at Denver, but that was a huge revenge setup for the Broncos, and anyone who really watched the game could see that both coaches were making an effort to WIN. This will be Seattle's first home game since winning the Super Bowl and they should be welcomed by the loud and racous crowd that give the Seahawks the best homefield advantage in the NFL. The Chargers enter off demolishing Dallas and San Diego accomplished all it's goals in that game.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots
Two teams that held joint practices sessions with each other on Tuesday and
Wednesday will square off in their second NFL preseason game of the year
Friday night on NFL Network when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England
Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 7:30 ET. The Patriots also held joint
practices with the Washington Redskins before their preseason opener last week,
and that did not end well with the Patriots losing the actual game 23-6. The
Eagles also come off of a loss 34-28 to the Bears in Chicago, and what was
significant about that game was the Philadelphia offensive reserves outplayed
the starters after the Eagles were shut out in the first quarter.
Coach Chip Kelly has intimated this week that he may play his starters into
the second period in Week 2 and that he also plans to work on some
different formations, thus not being as "vanilla" with the play-calling as he was in
the opener. In other words, into the second quarter at least, expect to see
Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy in more or less regular season form in Kelly's
hurry-up offense before the back-ups get summoned and the vanilla schemes of
last week return. And how the Eagles perform in that first quarter and a
half or so could ultimately determine the outcome of this game, although if
the second and third stringers match last week's performance, Philadelphia may
not stop scoring. Also expect to see more of Darren Sproles with the first
team after he did not catch a pass last week, although he did carry the ball
three times for 11 yards. The one setback for Philadelphia is that Jeremy
Maclin, who is expected to take over as the primary receiver this season with
DeSean Jackson departed, is again doubtful with a knee injury. That may not
necessarily be a bad thing though as the Eagles can take a longer look at
their second round draft pick Jordan Matthews who seemed nervous while
dropping three passes in he opener but has excelled in training camp.
As for the Patriots, Tom Brady is expected to make his 2014 debut while
major free agent signee Darrelle Revis is expected to make his New England
debut. The difference though is that the Patriot starters do not figure to play
more than one quarter and maybe even just a couple of series. The Patriots
want to continue to take extended looks at Ryan Mallet, who was terrible in
the opener in what was rumored to be a trade audition, and rookie Jimmy
Garoppolo as that duo is still competing for the back-up quarterback job behind
Brady (assuming Mallet is still with the team). Mallet started last week and
was lousy completing 5-of-12 passes for just 55 yards with several of the
incompletions falling at the feet of his receivers. There have been rumors of
Mallet possibly going to the Houston Texans since before the NFL Draft,
which may have been a reason Houston did not select a quarterback in the draft,
but his opening performance looks like cause for concern.
The Patriots are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as preseason
favorites. NFL preseason Week 2 underdogs coming off of a loss (Eagles) are a
mind-boggling 72-33-2, 68.6 percent ATS since 2000.
