07:10 PM [904] MIA MARLINS -1.5 -130 ( D STRAILY -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
07:10 PM [905] TOTAL o7+100 (WAS NATIONALS vrs NY METS) ( S STRASBURG -R / N SYNDERGAARD -R )
07:10 PM [919] TOTAL o10.5 +100 (TB RAYS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( C ARCHER -R / S OSULLIVAN -R )
07:10 PM [922] CLE INDIANS -163 ( C GREEN -R / C KLUBER -R )
08:05 PM [924] TEX RANGERS -180 ( K GIBSON -R / C HAMELS -L )
08:10 PM [930] CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 -135 ( M WISLER -R / C SALE -L )
1 unit bet pays 29.92 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-101, -23.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Matt Shoemaker - 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Shoemaker got singled out in the fifth (he was solid through four) and the bullpen allowed three runs to score as he watched from the dugout. Sure, he didn't look as dominant as he has, but this was the Sawx and it's not like they ran all over him like they have so many other teams.
can ya believe all last 10 Strasburg starts went over, and 8 of Thor's last 10 did also?
Kazmir tried a simulated game while warming up for his last start and said having batters stand in helped his focus. Now he needs to repeat that success.
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -127
Vince Velasquez pitched well his last two starts after coming off the disabled list but now he has to go to hitter-friendly Coors Field and the right-hander has a 5.02 ERA on the road compared to 1.54 at home. Last year against Colorado, Velasquez allowed five runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings. The Rockies won 11-2 last night for their fifth straight win versus Philadelphia dating to last season. Jon Gray is 5-4 with a 4.81 ERA but he is 3-0 at home and had a 3.77 ERA in June. Gray has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 50 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts, which is excellent considering he pitches his home games in this stadium. The Rockies lost his last start 4-1 to the Dodgers, however, Gray gave up just three runs and six hits in six innings. Look for Colorado to make it two in a row over the Phillies.
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Over 6?
The initial feeling on this game by the majority of bettors is going to be on the ?under? here with Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard on the mound, but I disagree. Looking at past scores this season when these two pitchers take mound, there have been a high percentage of game finishing with a total of 7 runs or more.
There has been a total of 7 or more runs in Stephen Strasburg?s last 14 starts this year! The only game that didn?t was his first start of the season. Much of this is because of the 7.07 runs of support he is getting this season. Do I expect him to get 7 runs of support against Noah Syndergaard?...No, but we only need 3 or 4 runs by each team and I think this can happen. Strasburg has given up 7 career home runs to the Mets, which is the 4th most out of the MLB teams he has faced. Current members of the Nationals are hitting .283 vs Strasburg with a .338 wOBA. The Mets are ranked 1st offensively in ?WAR? the last 7 days and rank 2nd in weighted on base average. They have hit 21 home runs in the last week also
It?s been made public about Syndergaard pitching with bone spurs. He made a start against the Nationals 11 days ago and didn?t make it to the 4th inning putting 10 runners on base and giving up 5 runs. Now, he followed that start up with a solid outing against the Cubs, but the 38.9% of hard ball he allowed was the 3rd highest percentage this season. A potential red flag in his last start also is that his velocity on his changeup was the lowest it had been all season long and there are a few other red flags I saw when looking more at his peripherals.
There has been a total of 7 runs or more scored in Syndergaard?s last eight starts and he has gotten an average of 6.1 runs of support in these 8 games, with 4 runs being the lowest and the OVER is 7-0 in his L7 starts overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Strasburg?s L5 starts against the Mets. The OVER is 8-3 in his 11 career starts vs the Mets and when the total is set at 6.5 or lower, the OVER is 6-1 with the only game going under being back in 2012. The Nationals have scored 3 or more runs in 10 of these 11 starts.
Both bullpens got used a lot last night after the starter?s got pulled and there could be a fatigue factor here. Neither pitcher is expected to go deep either as the Mets are being cautious with Syndergaard and the same can be said for Strasburg who is injury prone and the Nationals don?t want to overuse him.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -175
Detroit soft-tosser Mike Pelfrey is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.78 WHIP this season, including going 1-5 at with a 5.34 ERA and 1.83 WHIP at night. Pelfrey's peripherals are equally as disturbing: 5.29 FIP, 5.06 xFIP and a 5.29 SIERA over 92.1 innings of work. The 32-year-old also possesses a woefully inadequate 10.5% K%, an 8.4% BB% and a 2.2% K-BB%. In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, Pelfrey has allowed a combined 11 runs (9 earned) in just 10 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Toronto's potent lineup is averaging 7.1 runs over the last seven games (.295 AVG.; .378 OBP; .846 OPS) so Pelfrey's disastrous 2016 campaign is certain to continue north of the border tonight. Let's also note that Detroit's bullpen owns an alarming 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road and a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games (21 2/3 IP; 13 ER; 22/10 K/BB). In contrast, Toronto relievers have posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in their last seven games (25 1/3 IP; 7 ER; 24/4 K/BB).
Toronto southpaw J.A. Happ is just one win away from marching his career best of 12, which was set back in 2009 with the Phillies. Happ is 11-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season, including going 6-1 at home and 3-0 in his last three outings. Mediocrity defines the 33-year-old veteran, but his 4.21 FIP makes him a lot for serviceable than his counterpart. Happ has also displayed greater command and control, ate home (7.47 K/9 & 2.30 BB/9 vs. 6.18 K/9 & 2.87 BB/9 on the road).
The Blue Jays are 16-5 in Happ's last 21 starts versus teams with a winning record, including 11-1 in Happ's last 12 outings against .501 or greater opposition. Toronto stands at 39-15 in its last 54 home games versus teams with a losing record, 46-21 in its last 67 home games versus right-handed starters, 14-3 in its last 17 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30 and 6-0 in its last six games overall (5-0 in Happ's L/5 starts). The Tigers have also lost six straight meetings in Toronto and have lost four of Pelfrey's last 5 road starts.
Finally, Detroit's crumbling bullpen could be missing right-hander Bruce Rondon, who was sent back to the team's hotel Thursday night with the flu. "He's been sick for a couple of days," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said. "He was sick on the plane last night, too....We were short. That's why we were kind of stretching (Shane Greene) and Justin (Wilson) both, trying to get through. I think at the end, really, Justin was kind of out of gas, so we went to Alex (Wilson)."
L.A. Angels +110 over BALTIMORE
Matt Shoemaker keeps rolling along. He was one of the best SP in MLB during June (2.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), and his peripherals provided full support of those marks: 9.6 K?s/9, 1.1 BB?s/9, 45% grounders. His 15.2% swing and miss rate and 33% ball% were some of the best in the game too. Shoemaker?s off-speed stuff, that he can locate beautifully, has hitters guessing and it could be a nightmare matchup for a Baltimore lineup that has never seen a pitch they didn?t like.
If you?re a fan of the Baltimore Orioles and baseballs being hit really far and over outfield fences, then the month of June was lovely. Back in 1996, the Oakland A?s hit a record 55 home runs during the month of June, with the awesomely-named Geronimo Berroa?s 19th homer of the season being #55. Mark Trumbo?s homer on June 30 was Baltimore?s 55th of June so they officially equaled what that A?s team did 20 years ago. It?s not a huge shock that the Orioles have reached a power-hitting record. This team was built with the idea that they could mash their way to the top of the AL East, and it?s been working well so far. They?re leading baseball in homers, they?ve got the individual leader in homers, and they put up crooked numbers regularly. But like everything else, what goes up must come down and these Orioles are coming down quickly. This is a team of designated hitters that does not do anything well except hit home runs and protect leads in the eighth and ninth innings. After that, there are not many weaker teams? in every other area than the Orioles so they are officially our top fade team in the second half when they are favored like they are here.
Ubaldo Jiminez wouldn?t be able to crack the Twins? rotation, let alone anyone else?s rotation. We used to speculate on him but his 2H of last year and first half of this year told us why we shouldn't. Jimenez has a 1.92 WHIP after 16 starts. Four of those starts or one in four has been of the pure quality variety. Three out of every four starts have been of the disaster variety, which does not bode well against a hot-hitting team like the Angels. Over his last 24 frames, Jimenez has walked 16. He now has 48 walks in 80 innings and his 14% hr/f rate says a lot of those walks come around to score. Ubaldo?s 6.95 ERA says the same. Jimenez has produced negative results in four of the last five seasons and his 89-mph fastball so far in 2016 continues a gradual decline from its prior mid-90s peak. There are much better places to speculate than Jimenez and not many better to take a price back against.
San Diego +183 over LOS ANGELES
First and foremost, the Dodgers aren?t good enough to be priced in this range and neither is Scott Kazmir. Playing the 25th ranked schedule out of 30 teams, the Dodgers are 14-16 against top-15 teams and they have also dropped three in a row. Kazmir has seven pure quality starts in 17 games this season. He does have 101 K?s in 95 innings, which allows him to get out of jams on his own but he also walks too many batters and his fly-ball rate of 39% warns us that walks plus homers = runs scored. Kazmir has been tagged for 14 jacks already this year in 94 innings and there is a dramatic deterioration of strikeouts the second and third time through the order (11.6 to 6.7 to 5.6). Kazmir?s 4.37 ERA is legit and we?re not in favor of spotting close to 2-1 with a pitcher that is readily capable of giving up five runs each time he takes the mound.
The Padres are this year?s Rodney Dangerfield of MLB. Here?s a team that has won 11 of their past 17 games. After a horrible first month, San Diego has been very good ever since, ranking in the top 10 in just about every key offensive category, which includes team batting average (.274) and runs scored (third in MLB from May 15 to the present). Despite their modest success, the Padres come in underpriced almost daily and this is just another one of those times.
Andrew Cashner?s 4.47 ERA is almost identical to Scott Kazmir?s actual ERA. However, Cashner was dealing with some aggravating injuries and missed a month before returning against the Yankees on July 3. That was his first start back off the DL and he posted a very nice 13% swing and miss rate. Prior to his DL stint, his swing and miss rate was just 6%. That?s only one start but the Yankees have struck out the fourth least amount of times in the majors so that?s something. Cashner?s average velocity was 94 MPH in his return so there is that as well. We?re not saying that Cashner is going to dominate anyone right now based on one start. Thing is, Cashner compiled a 2.87 ERA in 2014 with the skills to back it up. In fact, few were better that year. He subsequently had a very rough 2015 season although he got crushed by left-handed bats and struggled with his control. Injuries also played a part. If he?s healthy and feeling like 2014 again, he could offer up some great value over the next few weeks. We already know that the Padres are undervalued and playing well and Cashner may be feeling really good too.
07:10 PM [905] TOTAL o7+100 (WAS NATIONALS vrs NY METS) ( S STRASBURG -R / N SYNDERGAARD -R )
07:10 PM [919] TOTAL o10.5 +100 (TB RAYS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( C ARCHER -R / S OSULLIVAN -R )
07:10 PM [922] CLE INDIANS -163 ( C GREEN -R / C KLUBER -R )
08:05 PM [924] TEX RANGERS -180 ( K GIBSON -R / C HAMELS -L )
08:10 PM [930] CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 -135 ( M WISLER -R / C SALE -L )
1 unit bet pays 29.92 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-101, -23.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Matt Shoemaker - 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Shoemaker got singled out in the fifth (he was solid through four) and the bullpen allowed three runs to score as he watched from the dugout. Sure, he didn't look as dominant as he has, but this was the Sawx and it's not like they ran all over him like they have so many other teams.
can ya believe all last 10 Strasburg starts went over, and 8 of Thor's last 10 did also?
Kazmir tried a simulated game while warming up for his last start and said having batters stand in helped his focus. Now he needs to repeat that success.
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -127
Vince Velasquez pitched well his last two starts after coming off the disabled list but now he has to go to hitter-friendly Coors Field and the right-hander has a 5.02 ERA on the road compared to 1.54 at home. Last year against Colorado, Velasquez allowed five runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings. The Rockies won 11-2 last night for their fifth straight win versus Philadelphia dating to last season. Jon Gray is 5-4 with a 4.81 ERA but he is 3-0 at home and had a 3.77 ERA in June. Gray has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 50 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts, which is excellent considering he pitches his home games in this stadium. The Rockies lost his last start 4-1 to the Dodgers, however, Gray gave up just three runs and six hits in six innings. Look for Colorado to make it two in a row over the Phillies.
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Over 6?
The initial feeling on this game by the majority of bettors is going to be on the ?under? here with Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard on the mound, but I disagree. Looking at past scores this season when these two pitchers take mound, there have been a high percentage of game finishing with a total of 7 runs or more.
There has been a total of 7 or more runs in Stephen Strasburg?s last 14 starts this year! The only game that didn?t was his first start of the season. Much of this is because of the 7.07 runs of support he is getting this season. Do I expect him to get 7 runs of support against Noah Syndergaard?...No, but we only need 3 or 4 runs by each team and I think this can happen. Strasburg has given up 7 career home runs to the Mets, which is the 4th most out of the MLB teams he has faced. Current members of the Nationals are hitting .283 vs Strasburg with a .338 wOBA. The Mets are ranked 1st offensively in ?WAR? the last 7 days and rank 2nd in weighted on base average. They have hit 21 home runs in the last week also
It?s been made public about Syndergaard pitching with bone spurs. He made a start against the Nationals 11 days ago and didn?t make it to the 4th inning putting 10 runners on base and giving up 5 runs. Now, he followed that start up with a solid outing against the Cubs, but the 38.9% of hard ball he allowed was the 3rd highest percentage this season. A potential red flag in his last start also is that his velocity on his changeup was the lowest it had been all season long and there are a few other red flags I saw when looking more at his peripherals.
There has been a total of 7 runs or more scored in Syndergaard?s last eight starts and he has gotten an average of 6.1 runs of support in these 8 games, with 4 runs being the lowest and the OVER is 7-0 in his L7 starts overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Strasburg?s L5 starts against the Mets. The OVER is 8-3 in his 11 career starts vs the Mets and when the total is set at 6.5 or lower, the OVER is 6-1 with the only game going under being back in 2012. The Nationals have scored 3 or more runs in 10 of these 11 starts.
Both bullpens got used a lot last night after the starter?s got pulled and there could be a fatigue factor here. Neither pitcher is expected to go deep either as the Mets are being cautious with Syndergaard and the same can be said for Strasburg who is injury prone and the Nationals don?t want to overuse him.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -175
Detroit soft-tosser Mike Pelfrey is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.78 WHIP this season, including going 1-5 at with a 5.34 ERA and 1.83 WHIP at night. Pelfrey's peripherals are equally as disturbing: 5.29 FIP, 5.06 xFIP and a 5.29 SIERA over 92.1 innings of work. The 32-year-old also possesses a woefully inadequate 10.5% K%, an 8.4% BB% and a 2.2% K-BB%. In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, Pelfrey has allowed a combined 11 runs (9 earned) in just 10 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Toronto's potent lineup is averaging 7.1 runs over the last seven games (.295 AVG.; .378 OBP; .846 OPS) so Pelfrey's disastrous 2016 campaign is certain to continue north of the border tonight. Let's also note that Detroit's bullpen owns an alarming 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road and a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games (21 2/3 IP; 13 ER; 22/10 K/BB). In contrast, Toronto relievers have posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in their last seven games (25 1/3 IP; 7 ER; 24/4 K/BB).
Toronto southpaw J.A. Happ is just one win away from marching his career best of 12, which was set back in 2009 with the Phillies. Happ is 11-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season, including going 6-1 at home and 3-0 in his last three outings. Mediocrity defines the 33-year-old veteran, but his 4.21 FIP makes him a lot for serviceable than his counterpart. Happ has also displayed greater command and control, ate home (7.47 K/9 & 2.30 BB/9 vs. 6.18 K/9 & 2.87 BB/9 on the road).
The Blue Jays are 16-5 in Happ's last 21 starts versus teams with a winning record, including 11-1 in Happ's last 12 outings against .501 or greater opposition. Toronto stands at 39-15 in its last 54 home games versus teams with a losing record, 46-21 in its last 67 home games versus right-handed starters, 14-3 in its last 17 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30 and 6-0 in its last six games overall (5-0 in Happ's L/5 starts). The Tigers have also lost six straight meetings in Toronto and have lost four of Pelfrey's last 5 road starts.
Finally, Detroit's crumbling bullpen could be missing right-hander Bruce Rondon, who was sent back to the team's hotel Thursday night with the flu. "He's been sick for a couple of days," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said. "He was sick on the plane last night, too....We were short. That's why we were kind of stretching (Shane Greene) and Justin (Wilson) both, trying to get through. I think at the end, really, Justin was kind of out of gas, so we went to Alex (Wilson)."
L.A. Angels +110 over BALTIMORE
Matt Shoemaker keeps rolling along. He was one of the best SP in MLB during June (2.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), and his peripherals provided full support of those marks: 9.6 K?s/9, 1.1 BB?s/9, 45% grounders. His 15.2% swing and miss rate and 33% ball% were some of the best in the game too. Shoemaker?s off-speed stuff, that he can locate beautifully, has hitters guessing and it could be a nightmare matchup for a Baltimore lineup that has never seen a pitch they didn?t like.
If you?re a fan of the Baltimore Orioles and baseballs being hit really far and over outfield fences, then the month of June was lovely. Back in 1996, the Oakland A?s hit a record 55 home runs during the month of June, with the awesomely-named Geronimo Berroa?s 19th homer of the season being #55. Mark Trumbo?s homer on June 30 was Baltimore?s 55th of June so they officially equaled what that A?s team did 20 years ago. It?s not a huge shock that the Orioles have reached a power-hitting record. This team was built with the idea that they could mash their way to the top of the AL East, and it?s been working well so far. They?re leading baseball in homers, they?ve got the individual leader in homers, and they put up crooked numbers regularly. But like everything else, what goes up must come down and these Orioles are coming down quickly. This is a team of designated hitters that does not do anything well except hit home runs and protect leads in the eighth and ninth innings. After that, there are not many weaker teams? in every other area than the Orioles so they are officially our top fade team in the second half when they are favored like they are here.
Ubaldo Jiminez wouldn?t be able to crack the Twins? rotation, let alone anyone else?s rotation. We used to speculate on him but his 2H of last year and first half of this year told us why we shouldn't. Jimenez has a 1.92 WHIP after 16 starts. Four of those starts or one in four has been of the pure quality variety. Three out of every four starts have been of the disaster variety, which does not bode well against a hot-hitting team like the Angels. Over his last 24 frames, Jimenez has walked 16. He now has 48 walks in 80 innings and his 14% hr/f rate says a lot of those walks come around to score. Ubaldo?s 6.95 ERA says the same. Jimenez has produced negative results in four of the last five seasons and his 89-mph fastball so far in 2016 continues a gradual decline from its prior mid-90s peak. There are much better places to speculate than Jimenez and not many better to take a price back against.
San Diego +183 over LOS ANGELES
First and foremost, the Dodgers aren?t good enough to be priced in this range and neither is Scott Kazmir. Playing the 25th ranked schedule out of 30 teams, the Dodgers are 14-16 against top-15 teams and they have also dropped three in a row. Kazmir has seven pure quality starts in 17 games this season. He does have 101 K?s in 95 innings, which allows him to get out of jams on his own but he also walks too many batters and his fly-ball rate of 39% warns us that walks plus homers = runs scored. Kazmir has been tagged for 14 jacks already this year in 94 innings and there is a dramatic deterioration of strikeouts the second and third time through the order (11.6 to 6.7 to 5.6). Kazmir?s 4.37 ERA is legit and we?re not in favor of spotting close to 2-1 with a pitcher that is readily capable of giving up five runs each time he takes the mound.
The Padres are this year?s Rodney Dangerfield of MLB. Here?s a team that has won 11 of their past 17 games. After a horrible first month, San Diego has been very good ever since, ranking in the top 10 in just about every key offensive category, which includes team batting average (.274) and runs scored (third in MLB from May 15 to the present). Despite their modest success, the Padres come in underpriced almost daily and this is just another one of those times.
Andrew Cashner?s 4.47 ERA is almost identical to Scott Kazmir?s actual ERA. However, Cashner was dealing with some aggravating injuries and missed a month before returning against the Yankees on July 3. That was his first start back off the DL and he posted a very nice 13% swing and miss rate. Prior to his DL stint, his swing and miss rate was just 6%. That?s only one start but the Yankees have struck out the fourth least amount of times in the majors so that?s something. Cashner?s average velocity was 94 MPH in his return so there is that as well. We?re not saying that Cashner is going to dominate anyone right now based on one start. Thing is, Cashner compiled a 2.87 ERA in 2014 with the skills to back it up. In fact, few were better that year. He subsequently had a very rough 2015 season although he got crushed by left-handed bats and struggled with his control. Injuries also played a part. If he?s healthy and feeling like 2014 again, he could offer up some great value over the next few weeks. We already know that the Padres are undervalued and playing well and Cashner may be feeling really good too.
