5-5 yesterday -.05 units
YTD: 78-68 +17.15
todays wisdom from mack: take under 8.5 -105 versus 9 under -140. Why, mack? You lost stl under doing that! The reason is because of how much a run is worth. even though this particular game lost, paying 35 cents extra juice over the course of the season to get a push on 9 versus a loss at 8.5 is a losing proposition. I'm not going to give away how much each run is worth in mlb, but it is easy enough to figure out if you have the data.
For starters, here is a very simplistic account. Take the opening numbers, and for each lined number number (8, 9. 10, etc), look to see how often the game lands on that number. If the number 9 lands on 9 10% of the time, or 1 out of ten, and we further assume it goes over 4 times and under 5 times, you have 5 winners, 4 losers and a push taking under 9 -140, for a grand total of +5 (-4X1.4, or -5.6)= -.6 units. By contrast, taking the under 8.5 -105 instead, you have 5 winners and 5 losers, for a grand total of +5 (-5X1.05, or -.2) = -.2 units.
Lawd, today:
2 units TOR under 9.5 +110
2 units DET under 8.5 -105
1 unit nyy under 9.5 -115
1 unit la under 7.5 -105
1 unit chx under 10 -110
1 unit sf under 7.5 +100
1 unit mlw +115
1 unit arz -360
1 unit nyy -195
1 unit sf -140
1 unit tor -115
1 unit hou -155
1 unit stl -175
if you have watched my plays, I have never layed this much chalk in a day, let alone in a week. Here's to hoping it works....:toast:
(edited to correct math)
MTK
YTD: 78-68 +17.15
todays wisdom from mack: take under 8.5 -105 versus 9 under -140. Why, mack? You lost stl under doing that! The reason is because of how much a run is worth. even though this particular game lost, paying 35 cents extra juice over the course of the season to get a push on 9 versus a loss at 8.5 is a losing proposition. I'm not going to give away how much each run is worth in mlb, but it is easy enough to figure out if you have the data.
For starters, here is a very simplistic account. Take the opening numbers, and for each lined number number (8, 9. 10, etc), look to see how often the game lands on that number. If the number 9 lands on 9 10% of the time, or 1 out of ten, and we further assume it goes over 4 times and under 5 times, you have 5 winners, 4 losers and a push taking under 9 -140, for a grand total of +5 (-4X1.4, or -5.6)= -.6 units. By contrast, taking the under 8.5 -105 instead, you have 5 winners and 5 losers, for a grand total of +5 (-5X1.05, or -.2) = -.2 units.
Lawd, today:
2 units TOR under 9.5 +110
2 units DET under 8.5 -105
1 unit nyy under 9.5 -115
1 unit la under 7.5 -105
1 unit chx under 10 -110
1 unit sf under 7.5 +100
1 unit mlw +115
1 unit arz -360
1 unit nyy -195
1 unit sf -140
1 unit tor -115
1 unit hou -155
1 unit stl -175
if you have watched my plays, I have never layed this much chalk in a day, let alone in a week. Here's to hoping it works....:toast:
(edited to correct math)
MTK
