Hi guys, Tough week last week.
<b>4* NewMex St(-6.5)</b> New Mexico St comes in to this game 4-0 at home on the season and faces a MTSU team that took a big step up in the non-conference schedule playing SEC powerhouses Alabama and Tennessee with the hope that it would toughen them up for Conference play, but it hasn't worked as it appears to have worn them down and they have yet to recover posting a 2-6 record on the year and 1-5 on the road to this point. New Mexico St led the meeting last year on the road 22-11 at the half only to lose 39-35. They have the better defense allowing just 6 yards more than their opponent offensive average on the year while MTSU allows 31 yards more. They have the better offense gaining 5 yards more than opponents defensive average while MTSU is below average gaining 25 yards less than opponents allow on the season, but the key to the game in my opinion is the running game where NMSt has a large advantage as they average 4.6 yards per rush and 220 yards per game while MTSU allows 176 per game and 4.5 yards per rush. MTSU has a solid run offense as well, but NMSt run defense is much stiffer. I rate these teams equal in pass offense, but NMSt once again rates the edge when they don't have the ball and home field, better defense, and revenge will spell a 10-14 point win for the Aggies.
<b>4* Kansas St(-32.5)</b> Bill Snyder is the last guy a struggling program ever wants to see on the opposite side of the field as he doesn't know the meaning of the word mercy. KST is the best large favorite in the Country at 21-5 ATS in the last 26 as a favorite of 20 or more points. They have won and covered 8 straight vs their in-state rival winning 5 straight by 32+ and this one should be no different. KST should be able to run the ball at will here as the Jayhawk defense allows 5.7 yards per rush on the season and KST is one of the best run offenses they have faced all season which can only get ugly. KU is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games and road favorites of 28 to 35 points after allowing 1.5 yards per rush or less in their last game are 12-3 ATS the last 15 and 5-0 ATS the last 3 years. 51-10 Final here.
<b>4* Texas A&M Under(49)</b> and <b>3* A&M(-3.5)</b> Whenever you can get a defense this talented off a game in which they are embarassed you jump on and history has shown that this is definitely the case with the Wrecking Crew as they are 6-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing more than 475 yards in a game and 1-0 this year. They allowed 48 points to TTech and then came out and pitched a shutout against Baylor forcing 5 turnovers. This defense has as much pride as any in the Country and they couldn't protect a big lead against Nebraska. They were lax in their preparation for Nebraska as I think they bought into the hype that Nebraska wouldn't be able to run against them and therefore they couldn't move the ball. They won't be letting up on the Cowboys here.They have won the last 4 meetings by a combined 80-32 margin and I expect them to once again hold Okie St offense under 10 points here and come away with a 21-10 win on the road.
<b>4* Florida(+1)</b> Gonna go against the grain here as the Gators National Championship game is right here as they would like nothing more than to end Georgia's dream season to salvage what has been a disappointing first year under Ron Zook. I simply have Florida rated ahead of Georgia on both offense and defense and if they can avoid special teams disaster which has been a big problem this year, I see them running the streak to 12 of 13 over the Dawgs. Georgia offense averages 27 yards more than opponents defensive average which is slightly above average, but Florida's +68 yards per game is well above average. On defense Georgia allows 37 yards less than opponent offensive average on the season while Florida is in at -54 so I rate them the edge on both sides of the ball as they have played the tougher schedule to this point in my eyes. Add to this that the pressure is all on the Bulldogs and Neutral Field underdogs off two straight games as a home favorite are 14-2 ATS last 16 and if that same neutral underdog is an underdog of 7 or less they are 9-0 ATS the last 9. First of the remaining unbeatens goes down here.
<b>4* Pittsburgh(+13)(-120)</b> This Pitt team could very well be undefeated as they have lost two games in their last 14 by a total of 10 points and the 8 point loss to Notre Dame was very deceiving as they dominated play yardage wise. They are getting no respect whatsoever here with a line of nearly two TD's vs a team that they beat by 31 last year and lost by a FG here in Blacksburg in 2000. VT is just 1-5 ATS vs defenses that allow less than 4.5 yards per game the last 3 years and 2-10 ATS off a conference win the last 3 years. Pitt has covered 3 straight in the series including the blowout a year ago when they held a 24-8 first down edge and held the vaunted VT running game to 15 yards on 25 carries!!! These two teams are nearly identical in yardage both offensively and defensively, but they get it done in different ways as Tech needs to pound away on the ground, while Pitt can hurt you in the air with Ruterford and his two big receivers Slade and freshman Fitzgerald who may be the best fresman wideout in the country. VT can be hurt by the air game and Pitt should be there all day long.
<b>4* Indiana(-2.5)</b> Hard for me to even consider laying points on the road in conference play with Indiana, but when you consider that the Hoosiers average 280 yards of pass offense a game and that NW has allowed over 400 yards on the ground in EACH of the last 3 games, it is hard not to like laying less than a FG. Indiana is 8-1 ATS vs teams that allow 31+ per game the last 3 seasons and NW is just 1-10 ATS at home vs losing teams since 1992. Indiana will be able to establish the run game against a defense that couldn't stop a good high school team on the ground which will open up play action passing game which is the Hoosiers strength. I also rate Indiana the edge on defense as they have faced better offenses in compiling their poor numbers than the Wildcats who allow big yards to everyone.
<b>4* Houston(+5)</B> I have had pretty good success picking my spots with this team this year as we have had them against Rice, Texas, and UL-Laf which were all ATS wins and I think they have a very good chance to beat Memphis SU here. Both of these teams are very turnover prone averaging 3.4 giveaways a game on the year, but Houston more proficient in taking it away averaging 2.4 takeaways to 1.7 for Memphis. Houston should control the ground game as they average 177 yards and 4.3 YPR on the year and allow 138 on 3.6 per rush against. Memphis has big problems stopping the run as they allow 206 yards and 4.6 yards per carry while only gaining 116 a game on offense on 3.7 yards per rush. As you guys know, I love dogs that both run the ball better and stop the run better and we have cashed a couple times this year with Iowa on the road at Penn St and last week at Michigan with that same situation. Memphis has turned the ball over 11 times in their last two games and Houston is 2-1 SU and ATS vs Memphis the last 3 meetings and have revenge for last year's 52-33 home loss, but this is a much improved Houston team over last year's that didn't win a ball game.
<b>3* Duke(+10)</b> The Clemson Tigers have disappointed and I think that the losing of games that they controlled the play against Georgia and Virginia have worn on this team and they don't have much confidence. They are also 0-3 SU on the road and RF off of two straight games being outgained by 125 yards on the ground are 2-7 ATS the last 3 years and 0-3 ATS this season. Duke should stay tight here with the better running game and better run defense. Dogs that control the running game are very solid propositions and we will back the home dog here catching a TD and a FG.
<b>3* Ole Miss(+4)</b> Going to try to catch Auburn in a letdown spot here after the big upset win over LSU last week. Ole Miss is off two straight big road losses and comes home to a field where they are a perfect 5-0 in a must win spot against a team in Auburn that has beaten them the last two seasons. This is the season for Ole Miss as they travel to Georgia and LSU after this one before their rivalry game and I look for them to get it done here.
<b>3* OHIO U.(+17)</b> Sandwich game for Miami Oh here as they face Marshall next. Road dogs of 14 to 21 points off a win by 21+ are 11-2 ATS the last 3 years and Ohio has actually been favored in the last two meetings and now catching over two TD's. Miami defense is suspect and Ohio can run the ball here and in fact have racked up over 281 yards in each of the last 4 meetings on the ground. I look for Ohio to control the ball keeping the Miami offense off the field and should stay inside the number here.
<B>3* Iowa(-9)</b> I have been saying for weeks that Iowa is the best team in the BIG 10 and they will control the line of scrimmage once again here and that will spell the difference. Wisky needs to run the ball to be effective and Iowa allows just 2.1 YPR on the year and have allowed over 100 yards on the ground just once this season and 4 of their last 6 opponents have failed to crack 60 yards on the ground.
<b>3* Texas(-3.5)</b> Texas is 3-1 ATS and SU vs Nebraska in the last 4 meetings. Texas is 6-1-1 ATS the last 8 BIG 12 road games and are 39-20 ATS on turf since 1992. Texas defense is allowing opponents 101 yards less per game than they average on the season and Nebraska defense can be had in the air. I loook for a big game from Simms here and against like opponents (Iowa St and Ok St) Texas is 2-0 by an average of 19 to 12.5 and a yardage edge of 399-279 a game, while Nebraska is 0-2 by a score of 17.5 to 30 and have been outgained by a 399-321 per game in those two.
Good luck all.......Edit out advertising for the last time!
<b>4* NewMex St(-6.5)</b> New Mexico St comes in to this game 4-0 at home on the season and faces a MTSU team that took a big step up in the non-conference schedule playing SEC powerhouses Alabama and Tennessee with the hope that it would toughen them up for Conference play, but it hasn't worked as it appears to have worn them down and they have yet to recover posting a 2-6 record on the year and 1-5 on the road to this point. New Mexico St led the meeting last year on the road 22-11 at the half only to lose 39-35. They have the better defense allowing just 6 yards more than their opponent offensive average on the year while MTSU allows 31 yards more. They have the better offense gaining 5 yards more than opponents defensive average while MTSU is below average gaining 25 yards less than opponents allow on the season, but the key to the game in my opinion is the running game where NMSt has a large advantage as they average 4.6 yards per rush and 220 yards per game while MTSU allows 176 per game and 4.5 yards per rush. MTSU has a solid run offense as well, but NMSt run defense is much stiffer. I rate these teams equal in pass offense, but NMSt once again rates the edge when they don't have the ball and home field, better defense, and revenge will spell a 10-14 point win for the Aggies.
<b>4* Kansas St(-32.5)</b> Bill Snyder is the last guy a struggling program ever wants to see on the opposite side of the field as he doesn't know the meaning of the word mercy. KST is the best large favorite in the Country at 21-5 ATS in the last 26 as a favorite of 20 or more points. They have won and covered 8 straight vs their in-state rival winning 5 straight by 32+ and this one should be no different. KST should be able to run the ball at will here as the Jayhawk defense allows 5.7 yards per rush on the season and KST is one of the best run offenses they have faced all season which can only get ugly. KU is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games and road favorites of 28 to 35 points after allowing 1.5 yards per rush or less in their last game are 12-3 ATS the last 15 and 5-0 ATS the last 3 years. 51-10 Final here.
<b>4* Texas A&M Under(49)</b> and <b>3* A&M(-3.5)</b> Whenever you can get a defense this talented off a game in which they are embarassed you jump on and history has shown that this is definitely the case with the Wrecking Crew as they are 6-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing more than 475 yards in a game and 1-0 this year. They allowed 48 points to TTech and then came out and pitched a shutout against Baylor forcing 5 turnovers. This defense has as much pride as any in the Country and they couldn't protect a big lead against Nebraska. They were lax in their preparation for Nebraska as I think they bought into the hype that Nebraska wouldn't be able to run against them and therefore they couldn't move the ball. They won't be letting up on the Cowboys here.They have won the last 4 meetings by a combined 80-32 margin and I expect them to once again hold Okie St offense under 10 points here and come away with a 21-10 win on the road.
<b>4* Florida(+1)</b> Gonna go against the grain here as the Gators National Championship game is right here as they would like nothing more than to end Georgia's dream season to salvage what has been a disappointing first year under Ron Zook. I simply have Florida rated ahead of Georgia on both offense and defense and if they can avoid special teams disaster which has been a big problem this year, I see them running the streak to 12 of 13 over the Dawgs. Georgia offense averages 27 yards more than opponents defensive average which is slightly above average, but Florida's +68 yards per game is well above average. On defense Georgia allows 37 yards less than opponent offensive average on the season while Florida is in at -54 so I rate them the edge on both sides of the ball as they have played the tougher schedule to this point in my eyes. Add to this that the pressure is all on the Bulldogs and Neutral Field underdogs off two straight games as a home favorite are 14-2 ATS last 16 and if that same neutral underdog is an underdog of 7 or less they are 9-0 ATS the last 9. First of the remaining unbeatens goes down here.
<b>4* Pittsburgh(+13)(-120)</b> This Pitt team could very well be undefeated as they have lost two games in their last 14 by a total of 10 points and the 8 point loss to Notre Dame was very deceiving as they dominated play yardage wise. They are getting no respect whatsoever here with a line of nearly two TD's vs a team that they beat by 31 last year and lost by a FG here in Blacksburg in 2000. VT is just 1-5 ATS vs defenses that allow less than 4.5 yards per game the last 3 years and 2-10 ATS off a conference win the last 3 years. Pitt has covered 3 straight in the series including the blowout a year ago when they held a 24-8 first down edge and held the vaunted VT running game to 15 yards on 25 carries!!! These two teams are nearly identical in yardage both offensively and defensively, but they get it done in different ways as Tech needs to pound away on the ground, while Pitt can hurt you in the air with Ruterford and his two big receivers Slade and freshman Fitzgerald who may be the best fresman wideout in the country. VT can be hurt by the air game and Pitt should be there all day long.
<b>4* Indiana(-2.5)</b> Hard for me to even consider laying points on the road in conference play with Indiana, but when you consider that the Hoosiers average 280 yards of pass offense a game and that NW has allowed over 400 yards on the ground in EACH of the last 3 games, it is hard not to like laying less than a FG. Indiana is 8-1 ATS vs teams that allow 31+ per game the last 3 seasons and NW is just 1-10 ATS at home vs losing teams since 1992. Indiana will be able to establish the run game against a defense that couldn't stop a good high school team on the ground which will open up play action passing game which is the Hoosiers strength. I also rate Indiana the edge on defense as they have faced better offenses in compiling their poor numbers than the Wildcats who allow big yards to everyone.
<b>4* Houston(+5)</B> I have had pretty good success picking my spots with this team this year as we have had them against Rice, Texas, and UL-Laf which were all ATS wins and I think they have a very good chance to beat Memphis SU here. Both of these teams are very turnover prone averaging 3.4 giveaways a game on the year, but Houston more proficient in taking it away averaging 2.4 takeaways to 1.7 for Memphis. Houston should control the ground game as they average 177 yards and 4.3 YPR on the year and allow 138 on 3.6 per rush against. Memphis has big problems stopping the run as they allow 206 yards and 4.6 yards per carry while only gaining 116 a game on offense on 3.7 yards per rush. As you guys know, I love dogs that both run the ball better and stop the run better and we have cashed a couple times this year with Iowa on the road at Penn St and last week at Michigan with that same situation. Memphis has turned the ball over 11 times in their last two games and Houston is 2-1 SU and ATS vs Memphis the last 3 meetings and have revenge for last year's 52-33 home loss, but this is a much improved Houston team over last year's that didn't win a ball game.
<b>3* Duke(+10)</b> The Clemson Tigers have disappointed and I think that the losing of games that they controlled the play against Georgia and Virginia have worn on this team and they don't have much confidence. They are also 0-3 SU on the road and RF off of two straight games being outgained by 125 yards on the ground are 2-7 ATS the last 3 years and 0-3 ATS this season. Duke should stay tight here with the better running game and better run defense. Dogs that control the running game are very solid propositions and we will back the home dog here catching a TD and a FG.
<b>3* Ole Miss(+4)</b> Going to try to catch Auburn in a letdown spot here after the big upset win over LSU last week. Ole Miss is off two straight big road losses and comes home to a field where they are a perfect 5-0 in a must win spot against a team in Auburn that has beaten them the last two seasons. This is the season for Ole Miss as they travel to Georgia and LSU after this one before their rivalry game and I look for them to get it done here.
<b>3* OHIO U.(+17)</b> Sandwich game for Miami Oh here as they face Marshall next. Road dogs of 14 to 21 points off a win by 21+ are 11-2 ATS the last 3 years and Ohio has actually been favored in the last two meetings and now catching over two TD's. Miami defense is suspect and Ohio can run the ball here and in fact have racked up over 281 yards in each of the last 4 meetings on the ground. I look for Ohio to control the ball keeping the Miami offense off the field and should stay inside the number here.
<B>3* Iowa(-9)</b> I have been saying for weeks that Iowa is the best team in the BIG 10 and they will control the line of scrimmage once again here and that will spell the difference. Wisky needs to run the ball to be effective and Iowa allows just 2.1 YPR on the year and have allowed over 100 yards on the ground just once this season and 4 of their last 6 opponents have failed to crack 60 yards on the ground.
<b>3* Texas(-3.5)</b> Texas is 3-1 ATS and SU vs Nebraska in the last 4 meetings. Texas is 6-1-1 ATS the last 8 BIG 12 road games and are 39-20 ATS on turf since 1992. Texas defense is allowing opponents 101 yards less per game than they average on the season and Nebraska defense can be had in the air. I loook for a big game from Simms here and against like opponents (Iowa St and Ok St) Texas is 2-0 by an average of 19 to 12.5 and a yardage edge of 399-279 a game, while Nebraska is 0-2 by a score of 17.5 to 30 and have been outgained by a 399-321 per game in those two.
Good luck all.......Edit out advertising for the last time!
