Thurs touts
Superlockline
MLB Baseball
5 Units on Los Angeles Dodgers [+165] (Weaver - R, Marquis - R)
5 Star Selections Free Picks for October 7, 2004
NCAA Football
1 Unit on Clemson [+16? -110]
l handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
Season record:?240-252??-27.23 UNITS
?
HOU (OSWALT) -122 over Atl (Hampton) - 1 UNIT - 1:05pm Pacific
LA (WEAVER) +164 over STL (Marquis) - 1 UNIT - 5:15pm Pacific
OVER 9 LA (WEAVER)/STL (MARQUIS) -116 - 1 UNIT - 5:15pm Pacific
big al
big als plays are...
houston
dodgers
DR BOB
Houston (+17) 19 SOUTHERN MISS 30
07-Oct-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Houston played horribly last week in Memphis, but the line has adjusted to that debacle and the Cougars remain underrated. Houston is an experienced team (15 returning starters) coming off a Bowl season, so they?re not as bad as their 1-4 mark would lead you to believe. I figured Houston?s offense to struggle some this season without big play receiver Brandon Middleton (55 catches at 22.7 ypc last season as a senior) and the Cougars have been a bit below average on that side of the ball this season, averaging 5.2 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.5 yppl on defense. Leading rusher Anthony Evans will miss his second straight game this week and I rate the Houston offense at 0.55 yppl worse than an average Division 1A attack. The Cougars should mount a good rush attack even without Evans in this game, as Southern Miss continues to have trouble defending the run, allowing 5.4 yards per rushing play to a schedule of teams that combines to average just 4.3 yprp on offense. The Eagles are still good against the pass (4.2 yards per pass play against teams that average just 4.9 yppp on offense), but they?re below average defensively overall (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average just 4.5 yppl on offense) and will allow Houston to move the ball with decent success in this game (my math model projects 4.9 yppl). Southern Miss has been below average offensively as well, averaging just 4.7 yppl against teams that combine to allow 4.9 yppl on defense, and that unit will probably enjoy below average success against a Houston defense that actually rates as above average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that average a combined 5.7 yppl on offense). Houston will be very competitive in this game from the line of scrimmage, but the Cougars have been killed by their special teams so far this season, as that unit rates at a horrendous -7.0 points per game. Southern Miss isn?t very good on special teams either (-0.8 points), but they are likely to enjoy better field position because of the Cougars poor coverage teams. Even with a 6 point special teams edge, my math model still favors Southern Miss by just 15 points in this game and Houston applies to a decent 42-15-1 ATS conference bounce-back situation that plays on big conference road dogs that are 3 games or more below .500 against the number for the season. I?ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion in this game at +17 points or more. Thursday,October 07
College Best Bets 13-4 on a Star Basis Last Week!!
College Best Bets Now 25-10 on a Star Basis Last 3 Weeks!!
All Football Best Bets Now 46-18 on a Star Basis Last 3 Weeks!!
9 College Best Bets for just $30 ($25 for Members)!
My win streak continued on Saturday, as I was 4-1 on my College Best Bets after winning a 3-Star on Thursday night and losing a 2-Star on Friday. Overall, it was a 5-2 record with all three 3-Star Best Bets winning, for a total of 13-4 on a Star Basis. The winners were 3-Stars on Navy, 3-Stars on Miami-Florida, 3-Stars on Troy State, 2-Stars on Northern Illinois and 2-Stars on Missouri. The losses were 2-Stars on New Mexico and 2-Stars on Houston. Most of the wins were easy, but Navy and Missouri were pretty close. However, Navy out-gained Air Force 5.8 yards per play to 5.1 yppl as an underdog, so that was a deserved win and Missouri out-gained Colorado 5.3 yppl to 4.5 yppl in their 8 point win (which would normally result in an 11 point win). That Missouri game was only a 2-Star at -7 points or less, which was the line on Friday night when I take my official line. The line eventually went to 8 and 8 1/2 by game-time, but it wasn't a play at those numbers. The New Mexico game was only a Best Bet at +10 points or more and the line closed at +9 1/2, but it was a solid +10 most of the day on Thursday, so that one counts as a Best Bet loss. My Strong Opinions continue to do well also, as they went 4-2 this past Saturday with wins on Army, Toledo, UCLA, and UTEP and losses on Tulsa and the Auburn-Tennessee Over, which lost by 1/2 a point.
After a slow start, I am now a very profitable 31-19 on a Star Basis on my College Best Bets (25-10 the last 3 weeks) and a very profitable 54-31 on all Football Best Bets this season (NFL is 23-12 on a Star Basis). Strong Opinions are 14-9 in College and 7-3-1 in the NFL.
This is a great time of the year for me, as my math model now applies and it's easy to find games in which the disparity between public perception and reality is large enough to give us plenty of good line value plays, along with other Best Bets that are based on strong situations. My statistical match-up indicators also start applying this time of year and those indicators were 3-0 for me last weekend with Navy, Miami-Florida, and Troy State. There are lots of Best Bets this weekend, as I take advantage of bad lines before the public starts to realize which teams are overrated and which teams are underrated.
[edit by admin]
Mike Neri Sports - Late Service
Thursday October 7, 2004
BASEBALL
Atlanta w/Hampton +120 Risk 1 Unit to make 1.2 Units 4:05 EST
St Louis w/Marquis -180 Risk 1 Unit to make .55 Units 8:15 EST
Back TOMORROW after 12:35 EST for our next update!
Northcoast
Thursday Night ESPN Play of the Day under 55 Clemson-Viginia
That is also a Top Opinion
Reg Opinion- So Mississippi
William Foote
Clemson over 54 - 1 unit
Great Lakes Sports
4 Star Clemson
4 star L.A. Dodgers
Billy Coleman
3* Houston-Atlanta under
3* So. Miss
3* Clemson
Mejia's Selections
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By Tony Mejia
SportsLine.com Staff Writer Weekly predictions of the nation's Division I college football action.
Last week: 44-11 | Season record: 231-56 (80.5 %)
Projected Scores
Week 7
Hawaii 38 Nevada 27
Florida State 34 Syracuse 6
Virginia Tech 23 Wake Forest 17
Texas Tech 34 Nebraska 24
Pittsburgh 36 Temple 13
Southern California 38 California 27
South Carolina 31 Mississippi 7
Wisconsin 20 Ohio State 18
Northwestern 41 Indiana 19
North Carolina State 27 North Carolina 14
Michigan State 27 Illinois 24
Michigan 27 Minnesota 23
Maryland 34 Georgia Tech 10
Kansas 41 Kansas State 31
Texas A&M 24 Iowa State 17
Georgia 21 Tennessee 10
Florida 20 LSU 16
Oklahoma State 27 Colorado 17
Missouri 37 Baylor 9
Air Force 27 New Mexico 24
Fresno State 31 Texas-El Paso 13
North Texas 27 Utah State 20
Rice 59 Southern Methodist 14
New Mexico State 35 La.-Lafayette 24
Vanderbilt 21 Rutgers 16
Toledo 45 Western Michigan 27
Kentucky 17 Alabama 13
Northern Illinois 40 Central Florida 13
Akron 28 Buffalo 27
Washington State 20 Oregon 16
Purdue 37 Penn State 17
Washington 38 San Jose State 17
UCLA 19 Arizona 14
San Diego State 27 Wyoming 17
Middle Tennessee 31 Arkansas State 24
Texas 28 Oklahoma 20
Brigham Young 37 UNLV 13
Virginia 34 Clemson 17
Southern Mississippi 31 Houston 20
RonnieHarmon
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3-0 Yesterday In Playoffs!!!
Baseball:
3* Astros -125
2* St.louis -170
Football:
3* Over 48 Houston/so.miss
2* Houston +17
2* Virginia -16
DAILY SPORTS PICKS
OCT: 1-2-1
HOUSTON OVER 48 (CFB)
-----------------
BOB G
PASS
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SPATS
OCT: 3-3
SMISS
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POSITIVE UNITS
OCT: 2-1
ASTROS
----------------
COMPUTER BOYS
OCT: 3-2
STL
------------------
TRACE ADAMS
OCT: 1-3-1
BRAVES UNDER
------------------
JIMMY D
OCT: 2-3
VA -16.5
-----------------
INFO
OCT: 4-1
STL
------------------
JT
OCT: 3-2
STL OVER 9
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JB (COMP)
22-7
CLEMSON
------------------
OTM
OCT: 3-5
STL OVER
-----------------
SPORTS ****
OCT: 3-1
STL
----------------
ASSASSIN
OCT: 1-4
LAD
-----------------
CHOKE YOUR BOOKIE
OCT: 4-0
STL
----------------
GAMBLING CORNER
OCT: 3-3
VA UNDER 55.5
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POSTMAN
22-11
ATL
-------------------
BUDDHA
OCT: 13-11
STL -1.5
------------------'
DIMEPLAYERS ONLY
OCT: 0-4
ATL
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LINECRUSHER
Thursday, October 7th
12:30 Eastern Update
6:00 Eastern Update
2*Dodgers/Weaver +177 over St Louis/Marquis ($200 to win $354)
Hard to justify this price considering St Louis is 0-2 in Marquis' last 2 home starts, 1-3 in his last 4
Thursday, October 7th
6:00 Eastern Update
2*Houston +17 over Southern Miss
5*Clemson +16 over Virginia
Both are off a bye with Clemson being 1-3 and desperate for a win having lost 3 straight while Virginia is 4-0 but has Florida State on deck next week who they have lost 8 straight vs. The reality is, over the last 10 seasons the Cavaliers have only won 1 game by more than 14 points vs Clemson.
