Just like to know why the reason so many cappers bet on so many games. I have been doing this for 35years and it has taken me many of those years to realize that the only way to beat the man is to do your homework, have multiple books, develope a money management system and never force a play. There are plenty of good cappers here with a great deal of knowledge, and I can see that they know their shit and do their homework. But when I see someone posting 10 to 15 plays a day, it makes me wonder. My books love guys like that. The ones that only pound 2 or 3 plays are the ones they worry about. I also came to the conclusion many years ago that I was not going to get rich betting on football but I can come away on the plus side by sticking to the above guidlines.I would appreciate any points of view on this topic.
Gambling Styles
- Thread starter blaster
- Start date
i agree w/ you...i used to play a lot of games...but i find myself doing a lot better now that i play much less...and try to be selective
but i also understand the thinking that if you can pick better than 52.38% and maintain a positive EV, the more games you pick, the more you win. after all, if you're a 55% capper, you make more units playin 1,000 games than just 100 games, if you play the same # of units per game.
but i also understand the thinking that if you can pick better than 52.38% and maintain a positive EV, the more games you pick, the more you win. after all, if you're a 55% capper, you make more units playin 1,000 games than just 100 games, if you play the same # of units per game.
Blaster bets 5 games at $110 dollars on each to make 100 per game (at 10% juice). Cost is $110 X 5 = $550 . You win 3 of the 5 and make a profit of $80. (3 X 100 = 300 plus your wager of $110 X 3 = 330 so you get back $630 on your $550 investment)
Blaster profit $80 and a winning percentage of 60%(3 of 5)
Payday likes alot of teams and bets 14 games at $110 each to make $100 per game. Payday wins 8 and loses 6 for a winning percentage of 57%. However payday ends up making more money than Blaster does.
Payday bets 14 games X $110 =$1540
Payday wins 8 X $100 = $800
Get back my wager on 8 X 110 = $880
Wins $800 + $880 = $1680 minus $1540 = $140 profit
So payday bet $1540 and won back $1680 for a profit of $140
Payday profits $140 and a winning percentage of 57%
Blaster profits $80 and a winning percentage of 60%
My point is you can bet more games, have a lower winning % and yet make more money.
The bottom line is you still have to pick winners no matter how many games you bet. Personally I only bet 2-3 games per week but bet more on those games than if I bet a bunch of games.
Just another slant on wagering
Blaster profit $80 and a winning percentage of 60%(3 of 5)
Payday likes alot of teams and bets 14 games at $110 each to make $100 per game. Payday wins 8 and loses 6 for a winning percentage of 57%. However payday ends up making more money than Blaster does.
Payday bets 14 games X $110 =$1540
Payday wins 8 X $100 = $800
Get back my wager on 8 X 110 = $880
Wins $800 + $880 = $1680 minus $1540 = $140 profit
So payday bet $1540 and won back $1680 for a profit of $140
Payday profits $140 and a winning percentage of 57%
Blaster profits $80 and a winning percentage of 60%
My point is you can bet more games, have a lower winning % and yet make more money.
The bottom line is you still have to pick winners no matter how many games you bet. Personally I only bet 2-3 games per week but bet more on those games than if I bet a bunch of games.
Just another slant on wagering
Nice topic here....I am one of those cappers who do play many games, but having very good money management has been the key for me. I do have sometimes 1-5 BIG plays that I hammer, but I'll have my small plays that usually do decent as well that make it to where it is a lot of games. I admit, I do love the action!! Having many games is what it's all about for me and trying to have a decently high winning percentage and of course having a high unit amount is my main goal. When it comes to sports that are everyday such as baseball and NBA I do use your analysis of playing very few games a night which has been successful, but the sports that are once a week such as college foot and NFL I tend to play more games which has worked for me as well. If you really know what you're doing and have had success, I don't see playing many games a problem when it comes to once a week sports, but as far as the everyday sports I think you would get killed playing many games every single day....hopefully that makes sense, but that's my "style" of capping I've used for many years.....
Payday, like your post, but it is a little flawed. Of course you can bet more games, have a lower winning percentage and win more money, but you also take on more risk.
You must look at risk reward and not just profit.
In your example, you risk $1540 to win $140, the other risks $550 to win $80. I would take the latter every day of the week.
Not being critical, just expanding on your reasoning. It is all about risk/reward and money management.
Personally, I try to bet games early in the week. I find I bet too many games when I make my bets on Saturday morning and I also change my mind during the day. I look at the lines Monday and bet Tuesday and then don't pay any attention until gameday. This helps keep me from betting too many games.
You must look at risk reward and not just profit.
In your example, you risk $1540 to win $140, the other risks $550 to win $80. I would take the latter every day of the week.
Not being critical, just expanding on your reasoning. It is all about risk/reward and money management.
Personally, I try to bet games early in the week. I find I bet too many games when I make my bets on Saturday morning and I also change my mind during the day. I look at the lines Monday and bet Tuesday and then don't pay any attention until gameday. This helps keep me from betting too many games.
If you know you can hit at about 58% most of the time and I know many of pros that do it like this and was taught to me by 1 play you 10-15 games a week better to be 10-5 then 2-1. I think I know what I am talking about be doing this along time, but you have to have your own comfort zone what works for one person might not work for others me I choose to play a good amount of games and works just fine. But don't say you can't make good money playing a good number of plays because I know many pros like I said that do it this way not playing just 3 games and they play for good money and make good money. But you better make sure you hit week in and out before you do this, this is something you must have a comfort zone with and have showed yourself you can hit at least 58% of your games you could go down to 56 or 57% and still make good money way better then playing 3 games and going 2-1. but in the end it is all up to you but like i said I know many who do the 10-15 games a weekend on ncaa/nfl same as in hoops. But you can't say people who bet like I do can't make long term money my house, bank and tax return will prove you wrong with that statement , because I do this as my main income and have for a long time not because I have to but I choose to.
I don't know any pros who just unload on 2-3 games a week and that is it. Not going to go into money management and other stuff because that is my business and not to be shaired, it all comes down to what you do best and what works for you but never say never.
Good luck
Eric
I don't know any pros who just unload on 2-3 games a week and that is it. Not going to go into money management and other stuff because that is my business and not to be shaired, it all comes down to what you do best and what works for you but never say never.
Good luck
Eric
Good point Bason. I agree with you. One must definitely look at the risk involved, not just the amount of profit.
My personal opinion on this topic is to bet a few games and put more on them. The key is doing your homework and just going with what you really like. Picking a bunch of games is never going to get you anywhere. You may come out ahead when all is said and done, but by how much? Is it really worth it? The only way that this can be a profitable strategy is if you have a lot of money to put down on each game. You would have to put a dime, minimum, on a whole bunch of games in order to make some decent profits from this strategy. Betting 15 games for a buck is not going to cut it.
Interestingly enough, I have incorporated this strategy this season with playing teasers. In the past I have always played games straight up, thinking teasers are sucker bets. However, I was talking to a friend of mine and he made a good point. He said to me, "what makes you think that you can pick winners straight up, when there are guys that study this stuff all day long and still can't pick winners?" I thought about it. He has a good point. Over the long haul there are very few successful handicappers out there. And the ones that do make money are probably just slightly ahead. I stll have yet to meet or even hear of anyone who really makes a decent amount of money betting on sports. Some guys say they do, but I don't buy it.
So my friend suggested throwing in a different angle this season. So far I have been doing quite well. I play 4 game 13 point teasers. I sit down and I do my homework. I only play two to four teasers per weekend and I hammer them. I am not saying that this is the way to go. It is just another angle. It is sort of just an experiment for me. However, as I said before, so far this season this has worked very well for me. It just gives me an advantage in every game that others don't have. In other words, I leave myself a little room for error.
I don't post any of my plays because this is just for myself to see how it goes. Also, I assume most people in this forum don't like teasers.
Just another thing to think about. In my opinion, nobody makes money betting on sports except for the books, so why not try something different?
Good luck guys.
My personal opinion on this topic is to bet a few games and put more on them. The key is doing your homework and just going with what you really like. Picking a bunch of games is never going to get you anywhere. You may come out ahead when all is said and done, but by how much? Is it really worth it? The only way that this can be a profitable strategy is if you have a lot of money to put down on each game. You would have to put a dime, minimum, on a whole bunch of games in order to make some decent profits from this strategy. Betting 15 games for a buck is not going to cut it.
Interestingly enough, I have incorporated this strategy this season with playing teasers. In the past I have always played games straight up, thinking teasers are sucker bets. However, I was talking to a friend of mine and he made a good point. He said to me, "what makes you think that you can pick winners straight up, when there are guys that study this stuff all day long and still can't pick winners?" I thought about it. He has a good point. Over the long haul there are very few successful handicappers out there. And the ones that do make money are probably just slightly ahead. I stll have yet to meet or even hear of anyone who really makes a decent amount of money betting on sports. Some guys say they do, but I don't buy it.
So my friend suggested throwing in a different angle this season. So far I have been doing quite well. I play 4 game 13 point teasers. I sit down and I do my homework. I only play two to four teasers per weekend and I hammer them. I am not saying that this is the way to go. It is just another angle. It is sort of just an experiment for me. However, as I said before, so far this season this has worked very well for me. It just gives me an advantage in every game that others don't have. In other words, I leave myself a little room for error.
I don't post any of my plays because this is just for myself to see how it goes. Also, I assume most people in this forum don't like teasers.
Just another thing to think about. In my opinion, nobody makes money betting on sports except for the books, so why not try something different?
Good luck guys.
i have been doing this a long time also & will be the first to admit that i'm not discipline enough.in addition to my bets i tend to play other people's plays without doing my own research.
i use different systems that i developed that is designed for many plays.there have been times where i zeroed in on a special play & eliminated the other plays & lost.so i tend to make alot of plays & go for a 55%- 58% winning percentage.
i use different systems that i developed that is designed for many plays.there have been times where i zeroed in on a special play & eliminated the other plays & lost.so i tend to make alot of plays & go for a 55%- 58% winning percentage.
Thanks for all the feed back fellas. Very interesting angles from some solid cappes here. Only been here at MJ's for a week but been lurking for some time. As we all know, the more info we can get the better all are chances are. With me personally over the years have found that by limiting my plays to 3-5 plays on a Sat. in football has been the thing to do for me. Only played 6 games last Sat and Sun and delivered on 4. I'll take that every week.
