Game 1 Tidbits

[kcwolf]

Mussina vs Schilling -135/6.5

Just some facts I dug up today, most of you have done this for yourself. Thought I'd mention them anyway.

Last six years:

Schilling vs NYY:
Record: 1-1
ERA: 3.68
WHIP: 1.136
OV/UN 1-2

Mussina: no record

Home plate umpire: Steve Rippley

This years stats: 25 games behind HP
OV/UN 11-14
AWG: 6.0
ARG: 9.16
ASO: 15.32

OV/UN L5 3-2

Last year:
OV/UN 16-14
AWG: 7.2
ARG: 10.2

Please add more info as it comes about. I won't begin to think about a wager until the starting lineups come out, and only on a game by game basis.

I do have one comment that I feel is a very big negative for the DBacks. The DBacks are making a mistake in their starting rotation.

As a former minor league player and being around a few good managers, Arizona should stick with their NLCS rotation. Pitch Batista at home, and bring the Unit to NY. Left handed pitching is big at Yankee Stadium, and why put Anderson in a horrible pressure situation in game 3, even if the DBacks are up 2-0. I don't get it.

It just looks like Arizona has already panicked, putting all their eggs in one basket: trying to go 2-0 at home (hard to do, I don't care who is playing), and probably setting yourself up for a three man rotation.

Ask Bobby Cox how that played out.

I think the Yankees can be beat IF Arizona starts Johnson Game 3. They're asking for too much pressure.

Have at it, I'll wait til Saturday, as this will play out more in the media (big time) before then.

One humble man's opinion.

kcwolf

 

[BearDownAZ]

You bring up a very good point about sticking to the rotation and having Johnson start game 3. I guess the only reason against this idea would be that starting Schilling in game 1 and Johnson in game 2 allows Brenly the freedom to change things up down the stretch as he sees fit. For example, if Johnson starts game 2, then he would be ready to come back and start game 5 if necessary or game six depending on how things go. However, if Johnson pitches game 3, then Brenly would be restricted to being able to bring Johnson back for game six at the very earliest.

If AZ can have their 2 aces pitch all four games at home (if the series goes to games six and seven of course), then I see this as their best possible chance at winning the series because its no secret that our rotation drops off significantly after these two!

[This message has been edited by BearDownAZ (edited 10-24-2001).]

 

[kcwolf]

BearDownAZ,

You bring up some very compelling points.

Probably didn't clarify this enough, as we all should know the most important games in a short series are the odd games, games 1,3,5, and 7.

I know I can't change Brenly's mind now, knowing he has named his first three starters.

Like he'd care what I think, anyway.

Feel game 3 is the most important. I'd pitch Johnson instead of Peterson - a guy, according to the press, worried whether he would make the post season roster, let alone starting a critical game three in Yankee Stadium.

Great debate, hope others enter into the equation, all here to learn and make some cash.

Thanks for the reply BearDownAZ!

kcwolf

 

[phoenix566]

I gotta say I usually do not make series plays anymore as I find more value in individual games. I been kinda tossing this around though.....

Play Zona +130 for the series, x units. If Schilling wins game 1, the revised series price should make Yankees a small dog. If your play is sizable enough, you got a guaranteed return on your investment now playing the yanks for x units. If Yankees win game 2, you can continue playing the dog in the series provided it looks like it will see-saw again in games 3-4. Of course if the Yanks win game 1, your original bet is toast as the Yankees will probably sweep and give us yet another anti-climactic end to baseball season.

Does the above have any merit?

KC et al, what do you think about the total. Even at 6.5, I think the UNDER has a lot of merit. This game should only go over by accident and we're talking a PRETTY BIG accident at that!! I played it when it first came out and got it at -110, looks like it is -130 and headed to -140, although over players will probably hit it at +120 and cause it to fluctuate. Nonetheless by game time, the juice will be layed on the under.

As far as a side for game 1, I lean to the Yanks. Gotta take the Moose + the juice. When he has been a dog this season (which has not been much), every ticket has cashed. I personally haven't cashed as many with Schilling, but then again I don't lay -250... all that much. Side should probably be a no play here, but it is game 1 WS, is it even possible to have a no play.....

thanks for getting this thread started KC.

 

[NJO]

Johnson in game 2 makes sense because of what BDAZ said, and because of something the announcers pointed out in game 5 versus Atlanta.

Namely, while Brenly doesn't have to worry about Schilling mentally, he watches for litle signals that Johnson is losing his focus -- kicking a lot at the dirt, too many deep breaths, constantly asking for new balls, etc. -- and has to do something if that happens. It was hypothesized that this happens more so on the road.

Given that, starting Unit at home in game 2 also makes more sense. THat Yankee STadium rowdiness could mess with Unit's head, seriously.

You still get a lefty on the hill in New York in game 3, Anderson, with Schilling coming behind him, likely/maybe?

 

[kcwolf]

Phoenix,

Just wanted to start a thread with a few early facts.

Throwing my worthless thougths

, thought we'e all find a way to make money.

Thanks for contributing and thanks to NJO also. That's what this is all about. You both brought up good points, worthy of thinking about.

I'm waiting until Saturday, hoping we can all learn something here and formulate a winning side and total.

If this continues, we'll figure out the correct plays.

We need gsp to come in here and give us home plate umpire thoughts.

Thanks again for all the reply's.

I'll be back on Friday, really busy tomorrow and needing early sleep.

kcwolf

 

[SKEETER1]

Start Johnson in gm 3? Listen guys...they R pitching their 2 best in gm 1 & 2...thats what ya do...cause ya want them to have more than 1 forsure start...pitching Johnson in gm 3, hell he may only see 1 gm...AZ doesnt have the luzury as NY and have 4 really good quality pitchers here...but in noway do U save Johnson for gm 3....their may be no game 7...ya dont work ur pitching rotation to go 7, U fit it to win the first 2 at home and when on the road U hope for the best performance ya can with the other 2...I am also a former minor leaguer and in noway do U want to come to NY 1-1 or 0-2 with Johnson on the mound in hopes of a victory...and if he loses then ur down 1-2 or 0-3...Ya gotta pitch him and Schilling gm 1 & 2...ur looking to make an impact early and if it goes astray then ya got em bk for gms 4, 5 ,6 depeding on how the series is going...ya gotta win at HOME

 

[kcwolf]

Just got home, one of those horrible days when I need to work a second job. Board meetings are not fun.

Anyway, I re-thought my position on the series starters for the D'Backs. I'm wrong! I stand corrected.

gl!

kcwolf

 

[phoenix566]

KC,

What are your leans so far? You can't keep us in suspense until tomorrow....

phx

 

[shamrock]

nice thread guys! I also agree unit has to go in game 2, as pointed by Skeeter you have to take the bird in hand, you may never get to game 5 or 6 etc. another point to be considered if Johnson was to go in game 3 at Yankee Stadium, I'm sure Torre would pitch Clemens in game 2 & save Pettitte 4 Yankee Stadium. Although Pettitte pitched great at Seattle in game 1, history has shown he much prefers home at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte verse Anderson in my opinion would be a incredible Yankee advantage in game 3 under the scenario. If nothing else Johnson Pettitte game 2 should be one Hell of a Southpaw battle. Good luck to everyone!
Shamrock

 

[shamrock]

nice thread guys! I also agree unit has to go in game 2, as pointed by Skeeter you have to take the bird in hand, you may never get to game 5 or 6 etc. another point to be considered if Johnson was to go in game 3 at Yankee Stadium, I'm sure Torre would pitch Clemens in game 2 & save Pettitte 4 Yankee Stadium. Although Pettitte pitched great at Seattle in game 1, history has shown he much prefers home at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte verse Anderson in my opinion would be a incredible Yankee advantage in game 3 under the scenario. If nothing else Johnson Pettitte game 2 should be one Hell of a Southpaw battle. Good luck to everyone!
Shamrock