First of all, good luck with your play tonite, hawkeye. This game is too tough for me to call, IMHO.
I'll play devil's advocate here for a sec, though. NJ's lately, despite being on a winning streak, has been relying on even strength goals, since their PP has been useless, scoring 2PPG's in L9. Colorado has scored 6 in L8. PK's have been equally good, allowing 4 in L10 a-piece. There's a difference in strenth of schedule to Colorado's favor, though, if you look at the L10 games, and even more so if you go 15, 20 games.
NJ's L10 opponents: Minny, Wash, Atl, Buf, Phi, Det, LA, Ana, SJ, Car.
Col's L10 opponents: Cal, Det, Det, Bos, NYR, CBJ, Tor, CBJ, Dal, Det.
Agree with ya on the letdown factor, but knowing the elite of the east is coming to town, not sure how much of a letdown they'll have. I'm laying off of this game, but hopefully they win for ya.
GOOD LUCK!!