Games for Thursday. . .

[Nickelback]

Will be looking very close at a total and it might be my total play of the year. . . probably will be a good fade for everyone as I am horrible with totals, but I will have to take a shot at this one.

Here's what I'm looking at for now:

Eastern Washington laying 3.5 over Idaho State. . . Eastern has lost both games where they were road favorites. . . I expect them to turn this around tonight. Another reason this line is low is that Idaho State has played teams very close at home. The problem for the home team as I see it is that I expect a significant rebounding edge for Eastern. They won't have to shoot the ball as well to win IMO.

Oregon laying 1 over UCLA. . . Gotta continue to fade the struggling team. Along with Eastern, this one appears to be a shady line and in that respect, I am probably taking the wrong side. But lately, there have been a lot of "shady" lines that I have gone the other way and the public has profited with me holding the bag. I feel there is too much that UCLA needs to do to win this game while Oregon needs to put up their usual offensive performance and they probably walk out with the 'W'. I think UCLA's home court advantage is no advantage at all this year as this team doesn't appear to want to win IMO. Ducks need this win.

Now that the road favorites are in, let's get to the rest:

Butler +whatever over Duke. . . Line is at 13.5 right now. . . I expect this line to climb a little. Line began at 15 and was hit down. . . I really believe this was the right initial move, but the public will build this one back up a little. Never the best idea to go against Duke at home. They play much better at home.. . no question about it. But this Butler team is very good. They are a veteran team that is experienced in going to hostile environments and playing well. Obviously I don't expect them to win, but I can see them keeping this Blue Devil team on their heels. Reason I will not play this big is that Duke should have a solid rebounding edge.

Montana laying 7 over NAU. . . Team is reeling after their loss to Montana State where they honestly outplayed their rival but still ended up on the losing end. Should work extra hard to get this win at home.

Arizona State laying 5.5 over California. . . Gotta go with the system play here. . . ASU plays very good ball at home. Devils have had a couple extra days to prepare for this one so hopefully they use it to their advantage and beat this hot Bear team.

Still looking at others. . . am going to try and stick with my best five games though and play a little more disciplined as my top plays have been very successful but my other plays have prevented me from having big nights lately.

 

[Nickelback]

BTW, the total that I'm looking at is UCLA/Oregon over 151. . . I see a big shootout with very little concern for defense from either team. Shot clock shouldn't even come into play.

 

[countinguy]

Nickel,

Looking pretty serious at this butler game, been waiting for this since I seen their schedule. They will lose by not by a lot of points, gonna wait this out for sure til tomorrow this line has to climb for more + points for butler. Prob. make up my mind right before gametime on this.

GL TO YA!! Countinguy

 

[Nickelback]

U2 buddy. . .glad you like it

 

[ststrl]

I agree with the UCLA Oregon game. As an alumni of UofA I am a huge fan and close follwer of the Pac-10. I too am leaning on Oregon here however you gotta feel that UCLA will turn it on soon. They played Cal decently and ABSOLUTLY should've beaten a good home team weak road team, Stanford. As for the over/under. UCLA cannot hit a shot for their life. And with Luke Jackson out, I see this game being more around the 135 area, but thats your call.

I don't bet on my teams so I am not touching UofA, but at 15 points I think taht sounds about right. Any thoughts? :shrug:

 

[Nickelback]

Arizona is my team as well

If Arizona wants to cover this spread, they certainly could. I'm just not sure how they are gonna take this Cardinal team. I would hope they would take them as serious as they have in the past. I would lean to Arizona, but not sure I'll bet on my team in this situation.

Regarding UCLA/Oregon, the reason I like the over is the focus of each team. . . neither cares at all about defense! At least this is how they play. Both teams like to take advantage of turnovers or situations where they can catch their opposing defense sleeping. I can easily see a run and gun game. Once again, I am horrible with game totals. . . but from what I've seen of each team this season, I really like the over here.

 

[ststrl]

Yeah I see what your saying about OU UCLA. Like you, I stay away from o/u is ncaa hoops, NFL thats different. About Zona, Stanford can be deadly from 3, if their hot tonite then we will win however it would probably be something like an 83-72 final. If Stanford goes cold from downtown, no doubt we will cover.
After reading your post again I REALLY like your EWU pick. Definetly a solid Eagle squad , ISU is strong at home but EWU has something to prove definetly getting ready for they showdown with Weber State. Then again, hopefully they aren't looking foward to Weber.

Are you a UofA alum?

 

[Nickelback]

Yes, an alumni as well. . . you're right about the spread coming down to the 3 ball as Arizona doesn't cover the longshot as well as other teams. Like the fact that for now around 52% are on Stanford for the game. . . certainly could change as more make their picks. I really think the theme this year for this team is motivation. They looked completely out of it against Kansas until 3 minutes left in the first half, then played the way you and I know they are capable of playing. I hear the so called experts on CBS, ESPN, etc. saying already its Arizona's tournament to lose in March. As long as they stay healthy and Walton gets his game together, I think its an accurate statement but the motivation has to be there or they can lose as they did against LSU.

 

[Superbear]

I allmost NEVER play faves in any sport, and Michigan State a few days ago was the 1st time I layed points in about a month. Once again we have the road ranked dog here. I hope that Joe Publick moves this down to -3.5 and then i,l buy the hook, but will play it even if it doesnt move. Arizona State hasn't left their state for 11 days, and have had 7 days to prepare for a home game. Cal has won 8 in a row, but they loose by 8 to 10 in this one.

 

[Cabo]

Love E.Wash this evening, GL..Cabo...

 

[LoneWolf]

Arizona players are catching alot of heat, about knocking over a candy machine in their Kansas hotel. Sounds kind of silly but you know how the media likes to run with stuff like this, espically when you're on top. The charma should be against Arizona in this one tonight.

Arizona investigating candy machine case
The Associated Press

Wednesday, January 29, 2003

Tucson, Ariz. ? The Arizona athletic department is investigating allegations that members of the No. 1-ranked Wildcats basketball team took petty cash and up to 80 candy bars from a vending machine in Lawrence, Kan., last weekend


At his weekly news conference, coach Lute Olson said Tuesday that the validity of the allegations was unclear.

"There is nothing but hearsay and rumor, and they will hear from our attorney," he said.

An unidentified Wildcats coach paid the SpringHill Suites by Marriott in Lawrence $80 for the missing candy, and manager Stephanie Bowler told the Tucson Citizen that the hotel would not press charges.

However, team spokesman Richard Paige said the university would continue to pursue the matter.

"The athletic department is beginning to investigate, obviously spurred on by the coaches' desire to get to the facts in the case," Paige said.

Two Lawrence patrol officers filed a report early Tuesday about their investigation into the incident.

The report identified a Chicago man staying at the hotel as the person who saw three Arizona Wildcat players by the machine about 10:40 p.m. Friday night. The witness said Luke Walton appeared to be the lookout while two other players tended to the open machine.

Hotel employees early Saturday morning discovered candy missing and the coin box empty.

One of the other two players was Salim Stoudamire, the man told police. The third player he could not identify. Saturday morning, after the team left for Allen Fieldhouse to play the Jayhawks, the Chicago man reported the incident to hotel management.

 

[bgold13]

ASU line has moved tp ASU -7.... not playing this game

As for Oregon game I just say inload your bankroll on the road team

 

[gjn23]

First off let me say I'm a UA grad and follow your picks and anaylsis....however:

I'm not seeing the ASU -7 pick. Why is everyone on them??? I think the wrong team is favored and if you extrapolate out the spread...ASU would be favored AT Cal by 1?????? Really?
Who will win this game???? To me it's about a 50/50 split who will win but throw in the fact that I'm getting 7 with a team that scores more and allows less on the road vs at home, who is undefeated in the conference, and has a solid coach...I think I'll take the 7 every time.

Oregon without Luke Jackson should still win, but Ucla has to play a decent game sometime...don't they?? I'd be leary of the total as well, without Jackson Oregon may score less and Ucla just can't shoot the ball.

As for the Cats, they are Jeckell and Hyde when it comes to the line. Pass. Why are they favored by 16 over Stanford and were favored by 18 over UW, both at McKale? UA has the talent to beat them by 30 but don't know if they are focused enough yet to play 40 full minutes and cover a large number like that. Plus Stanford is very well coached and Lute won't run it up on Monty.

 

[JCB]

Is Luke Jackson definitely out?

 

[Big Kev]

Jackson

Jackson

Out until mid to late February !!

 

[Nickelback]

Final Plays for the night:

Big Plays:

Santa Clara +1 over Portland. . . was leaning to Portland at home until I found that Santa Clara absolutely owns this team. . . has won the last 10+ matchups and covered the last 8 out of 10 ATS. Portland coming off a heartbreaker to Gonzaga so maybe a little letdown? Really like this play.

Eastern Washington laying 2.5 over Idaho State. . . line has gone down and 77% of the public is on Eastern. So why do I like them? Because they have been covering even when the public is on them huge. I'll take another bite tonight.

NC State +13 over Maryland. . . I think these teams are a little more even than the line represents here. I think its a reflection of Maryland's last home game and not reality. Yes Maryland is playing solid basketball right now. . . but so is State. I expect Maryland to win, but you gotta like 13 points for a team that has a chance of winning this game.

Small plays:

Arizona State laying 7 over Cal. . . I gotta take a shot at this one. Can't believe the line has gone up. . . thought it would go down for sure. But that's ok. ASU should be ready for this one and Cal simply plays much better at home than on the road.

UCLA/Oregon over 152. . . call this my total play of the year if you want! LOL. . . rarely see me post game totals as I do much better with 2nd half totals than entire game totals. But as I already stated, I feel that both teams could care less about playing defense and instead look to push the ball and try to outrun the other team. Should be a high paced, sloppy game with a lot of points. I had an opinion on Oregon, but don't have the guts to go against Volfan's 5* play as it is suicide! What I do like is that if UCLA wins this game, I think there's no question the game goes over where as if Oregon wins, UCLA may have struggled from the field. No question that Oregon will score plenty of points. . . Jackson or no Jackson.

Gl all!

 

[ststrl]

No Pac-10 plays for me tonite. I am iffy on all the games.

I totally see UCLA pulling this win out. Yeah they blow but they have bene in some games lately and this team really isn't that bad. I mean they have the talent Lavin just needs to push them. That being said if I had to make a play I would've taken Oregon at a pk.

ASU and Cal is another iffy game. Is Cal for real? Is ASU for real. I see ASU winning this game but I don't see it being -7 unless its backdoor. yeah ASU has had a lot of time to prepare, maybe too much, and it should be interesting to see how Cal does on the road to a solid team. Cal's schedule, well their wins for the most part, have been a vs cake walk teams.

UofA should blow out Stanford, then again we shoudl blow out everyone. But we are NOTORIOUSLY BAD starters to games. Our depth really helps in the second half cause we clearly tire teams out That being said, up to 17 seems kinda high for me to play. Stanford lives and dies by the 3. If they are hot they will be in this game, if not then we easily win by 20+. 17 is too high my advice, stay away, play Oregon if you must, but read what Nickelback said about EWU. Defiently my POD. Good luck to all, :toast:

 

[ststrl]

Very typical UofA first half. Some stupid tunrovers, missed free throws, then a good run to end the half. These refs are calling the game ridiculously tight, expect Staford to get into foul trouble and to tire down by Zona's bench. I wouldn't sweat the 15 point line too much, I could see us coming back and covering that. A win most likely, cover we'll see. Good luck.