games

[fletcher]

1-2 yesterday +5*
doing the same set up as yesterday so you can go to that thread to see the amounts.
braves
dbacks
yanks
good luck.

 

[Boneinthehouse]

fletcher, i find your betting sequence interesting. i use this in blackjack with great success. the only problem is having enough ass to cover 5 or 6 straight losses. i really haven't tries this with baseball. i'll give it a look. thanks. lol

 

[infinii]

Yesterday you were betting that the home teams wouldn't all lose, yet you've switched to Atlanta today.

Are you using same strategy with different teams or was that a typo and you meant Houston instead?

thnx

 

[fletcher]

no its right all the fav's today don't think astros are worth a play.

 

[NYMess]

I think he is going more with the favorites than anything else. It just was that the home teams were all the favorites yesterday.

 

[Never Caught Up]

I can't speak for fletcher, but home teams on game one of a meaningful series (regardless of whether they are favored) is a percentage play. It just didn't work yesterday, but will more times than not.

 

[phoenix566]

Hey Fletch, if you take into account the juice layed yesterday, my math shows + approx 2*, or do you always bet favs to risk 'x units'? actually playing 'to risk' would result in + approx 1.6 units.

what am i missing?

 

[Bonovox]

Could someone please enlighten me as to how this system works? I can see it working with blackjack or football where it all you lose is the juice. But I don't get it with favorites in baseball. I've been running this through my head and I can't figure it out. I'm not trying to slam anyone, I respect Fletcher as much as anyone. I just can't figure out how you guys get this system to work.

If you bet 2 units and then 3 units and then 10 units, I don't see how you can get a profit if you go 1-2.

Hou -120 LOST -240
Sea -185 LOST -555
AZ -150 WIN +500
Total = -295

Or if you just bet the number of units, which is how most of us do it:

Hou -120 LOST -200
Sea -185 LOST -300
AZ -150 WIN +667
Total = +167

What am I missing here? I hate playing baseball favorites because I can't get a system. If someone can explain a good system I would be very appreciative. Thanks.

 

[infinii]

Let's say you are betting to win 1 unit.

Using your lines:
Hou -120 Risk -120 to win 100 (L net -120)
Now we gotta win $220 to end up with 100 so..

Sea -185 Risk -407 to win 220 (L net -527)
Now we're sweating...gotta win $627 so...

AZ -150 Risk -940.5 to win 627 (W net +100)

Tada, you net $100 but just about crapped ur
pants, which is what I did last nite. I ended up chickening out and only bet 5 units on dbacks last nite.

Some ppl call this the "progessive play". But be careful cuz it's very easy to lose ur bankroll if you get swept.

[This message has been edited by infinii (edited 10-10-2001).]

 

[Aces High]

it could be me, but i think its simply a matter of fletcher doubling this bet(in his case the amount lost on 1st game) and so on until he won the intial 5 units.

lost X$ on game 1
bet amount lost(with juice) and original bet 2X$
lost 2X$, now bet that 2X$ and the original X$ for a total of 3X$ and so on.

he based his plays on home teams and favs not gettin swept.

with bankroll, just keep bettin until you win how much you want.

jm2cents

peace

------------------
ACES HIGH

 

[phoenix566]

Assume playing to win x unit.

2 units on Hou -120 = -240
3 units on Sea -180 = -540
10 unit on Ariz -140 = +1000

===================== +220

how is that plus 5 units?

 

[Bonovox]

Phx, 10 units on D'Backs at -140 isn't $1000, it's $715ish.

Ok, so it's just a small accounting error. Not a big deal. Fletcher did win yesterday - but 1.67* and not 5*.

I was just trying to figure out my math.

 

[Bonovox]

Aces - it just doesn't work like that with fav's in baseball.

"lost X$ on game 1
bet amount lost(with juice) and original bet 2X$
lost 2X$, now bet that 2X$ and the original X$ for a total of 3X$ and so on."

If you bet 200 on Houston yesterday, you lost $200.
Ok, so now you bet 400 on the Mariners and you lost.
Last game, you bet 600 on the Diamondbacks. The game closed at -150, so you win 400.

You're still down 200 for the day.

Progressive betting works when there isn't an inflated juice line.

To make it worse would be to try to WIN the number of units.

For instance, you want to win 200 on the Astros, so you bet 240 at -120 and lose.

Now, you want to win 400 (2x first bet) on the Mariners, you need to bet 555, because it closed at -185.

Now you are down 795.

If you bet the 3x like you would in blackjack or football, you are now betting 600, however, it is -150. So you only win 400.

Under this progression you have lost 395.

 

[fletcher]

read guys i am not going to explain every step of the way go to the first day.
i said if first 2 games lost then gm 3 would be double what the first 2 lost,that made dbacks -150 which lets use 100$ per bet was down 785 so 785X2=1570 to win that i had to lay 2355 to get back 1570-785= +785 profit for day. if i knew it was going to be this hard i would of just played it and not posted.

 

[Boneinthehouse]

AMEN!

 

[Bonovox]

You're the man, Fletch. Wasn't bustin' your balls, just trying to figure it out.

 

[fletcher]

i knew you were'nt i was just saying to all that most people didnot read it right .it was not just about doubling a bet,thats just how it played out. now today it will play out different since the braves won,if dbacks win i will stop there,if they lose yanks will be a different amount bet,its got to be played game by game and hope for the best.

 

[phoenix566]

I was just trying to figure out as well and to understand the risk involved. Its always your perrogative whether or not to post plays but if you do, why would you be turned off by honest questions. Others may not have understood exactly how to play the progression and may have ended up even on the night as opposed to grinding out the nice profit you made. Granted you had to sweat it to the last out, but look at the 'feel of action' you had for 10 full hours cuminating in a sweet V.

 

[fletcher]

it was explained out word for word yesterday.
i would of reather won the first 2 games and not had to worry about the other,not my type of fun

 

[shamrock]

Fletch, I also occasionally play progression in bases. There is a question I hope you don't mind answering. Your example regarding the 1 dollar bettor, with losses in the first 2 games you are in excess of 2 dimes for the third game . Needless to say this is a large bet for a $1 bettor, however I have been there and have played this way previously. My question is if you won the first 2 games, would you actually play nothing on game 3? If you liked Arizona enough to lay 2 + dimes, wouldn't you at least play them for something Even if Houston & Seattle won? To exclude Arizona of a play seems to mean we are playing situations not teams, although I have struggled with that notion myself. Of course bankroll and other variables are relevant. Assuming everything ordinary, do you still play Arizona? Or be happy with your 3 units and pass until tomorrow? In my personal case I thought Schilling et home was the best play of yesterday, even if I had Atlanta & Cleveland (which I didn't) I would have to play Arizona for something!
Shamrock