3* WVU +10
2* Under
WVU +10 vs. FSU (45)
Aware that the Mountaineers have lost 12 of their last 13 bowls SU. Also aware that they have yet to put forth any kind of effort that would convince us that HC Rodriguz knows how to prepare a team for a bowl in his two previous bowl games. But we think that will change, as he is too good of a coach. Both teams had much higher aspirations, even very late into the season. West Virginia ended the season with two straight up favorite losses to Boston and College and Pitt. (outyarded both teams),and FSU also lost as a home favorite to rival Florida to end their season. Tech stuff points us to WVU as Favorites -7> off a SU loss are 10-26-3$ and underdogs off a SU favorite loss are 41-22-1$ including 4-1 TY. West Virginia fans do travel to their bowl games, although FSU may have the edge in location with the game being played in nearby Jacksonville.
We are going to reccomend two plays here. WVU and Under. FSU rates the schedule edge, but WVU rates a huge edge at the quarterback position and has a much better offense overall than FSU does (1.2ypplay better, actually). Since their blowout victory over Virginia, the Noles have scored 20-17-29 (Duke)-17 and 13, in their last 5 years, and there is rumored to be a major overhaul of the offensive staff this offseason. Chris Rix and his teammates have been a constant soap opera the last couple of years, and there is no reason to think he is finally going to grasp some things that he hasn't his whole career (2-5 ratio TY). Definitely respect Mountaineer signal Caller Marshall, who can do it with his feet or his arm, and gets 1st round talent WR Henry, who missed the Pitt loss with a suspension, back today. Going against FSU's #1 ranked run defense (69ypg, 2.0ypr) no easy pickings, but the Mountaineers bring 3 strong RB, Marshall, and a collective 5.1ypr to the table. The Mountaineer defense is a very underrated unit, as they have allowed only 313 ypg, and 4.2ypplay to bowl opponents this year. FSU's heralded defense allowed 4.6ypplay to the bowlers on its schedule. Although FSU has played the tougher opponents, must note that WVU's group does include Virginia Tech, who FSU did not play this year in ACC play. We're not saying that WVU's defense is as good or as talented as FSU's, but with a big offensive edge and an ample of number of points, this line looks unbelivably high to us. Yes, Bowden has 17 SU bowl wins under his belt, but he has lost 4 out of his last 6 and is 3-6$ his last 9. We think there is a combination of instability in ineptness in the Seminoles coaching staff, and we think WVU can win this outright.
With one great defense (271ypg), one good defense(329 ypg, plus tough against bowlers mentioned above), one very questionable offense (only 9 bowl teams averaged less than FSU's 5.1ypplay) and plenty of running, UNDER looks solid as well.
2* Under
WVU +10 vs. FSU (45)
Aware that the Mountaineers have lost 12 of their last 13 bowls SU. Also aware that they have yet to put forth any kind of effort that would convince us that HC Rodriguz knows how to prepare a team for a bowl in his two previous bowl games. But we think that will change, as he is too good of a coach. Both teams had much higher aspirations, even very late into the season. West Virginia ended the season with two straight up favorite losses to Boston and College and Pitt. (outyarded both teams),and FSU also lost as a home favorite to rival Florida to end their season. Tech stuff points us to WVU as Favorites -7> off a SU loss are 10-26-3$ and underdogs off a SU favorite loss are 41-22-1$ including 4-1 TY. West Virginia fans do travel to their bowl games, although FSU may have the edge in location with the game being played in nearby Jacksonville.
We are going to reccomend two plays here. WVU and Under. FSU rates the schedule edge, but WVU rates a huge edge at the quarterback position and has a much better offense overall than FSU does (1.2ypplay better, actually). Since their blowout victory over Virginia, the Noles have scored 20-17-29 (Duke)-17 and 13, in their last 5 years, and there is rumored to be a major overhaul of the offensive staff this offseason. Chris Rix and his teammates have been a constant soap opera the last couple of years, and there is no reason to think he is finally going to grasp some things that he hasn't his whole career (2-5 ratio TY). Definitely respect Mountaineer signal Caller Marshall, who can do it with his feet or his arm, and gets 1st round talent WR Henry, who missed the Pitt loss with a suspension, back today. Going against FSU's #1 ranked run defense (69ypg, 2.0ypr) no easy pickings, but the Mountaineers bring 3 strong RB, Marshall, and a collective 5.1ypr to the table. The Mountaineer defense is a very underrated unit, as they have allowed only 313 ypg, and 4.2ypplay to bowl opponents this year. FSU's heralded defense allowed 4.6ypplay to the bowlers on its schedule. Although FSU has played the tougher opponents, must note that WVU's group does include Virginia Tech, who FSU did not play this year in ACC play. We're not saying that WVU's defense is as good or as talented as FSU's, but with a big offensive edge and an ample of number of points, this line looks unbelivably high to us. Yes, Bowden has 17 SU bowl wins under his belt, but he has lost 4 out of his last 6 and is 3-6$ his last 9. We think there is a combination of instability in ineptness in the Seminoles coaching staff, and we think WVU can win this outright.
With one great defense (271ypg), one good defense(329 ypg, plus tough against bowlers mentioned above), one very questionable offense (only 9 bowl teams averaged less than FSU's 5.1ypplay) and plenty of running, UNDER looks solid as well.
