Gator Bowl - Scout Inc's take

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Belly of the Beast
Updated: Dec. 23, 2005, 3:42 PM ET
Hokies defense to be unleashed on Cards Scouts, Inc.

Louisville has been one of the nation's top offenses, but QB Brian Brohm's knee injury will keep him out of the Toyota Gator Bowl. Facing the rugged Virginia Tech defense without Brohm will be a huge challenge for the Cardinals.

Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
QB Brian Brohm is out with a knee injury so Hunter Cantwell will make his second career start working against a Virginia Tech defense that gives up fewer yards per game than any other team in the nation. As a result, Louisville will come out running the ball in an effort to keep the Hokies on their heels and take pressure of Cantwell. The good news for Cardinals' fans is impressive RB Michael Bush is a big back that can carry a heavy workload. He is more than capable of wearing the Hokies down given enough carries. The bad news is he will be working against a Virginia Tech run defense that is giving up a miniscule average of 2.9 yards per carry.

Louisville has to give Cantwell enough time to find the open man and enough space to step into his throws because he's inexperienced and will make some poor decisions under pressure. That's a lot easier said than done when DE Daryl Tapp is lining up on the other side of the ball. Tapp is a relentless pass rusher that has good initial quickness and he is strong for his size. It's also important to note that the Cardinals may give Bush some snaps at quarterback where he lined up in high school.

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Virginia Tech's offense is predicated on the ground game -- and for good reason. Few if any teams are as deep in the backfield as the Hokies are with RBs Cedric Humes, Branden Ore and Mike Imoh all getting touches. That depth allows Virginia Tech to show a strong commitment to the run without wearing any of the backs. More importantly, QB Marcus Vick is always a threat to run some quarterback draws and naked bootlegs. While Louisville has been stout against the run, it has had some problems defending mobile quarterbacks.

Vick is a threat to scramble, but he would rather use his arm to beat defenses and throws well when on the move. It's critical that the Cardinals' linebackers and secondary personnel don't play the run too early as a result. If they step up before Vick crosses the line of scrimmage, he should be able to find the open man downfield.

Special Teams
Louisville kicker Art Carmody has been close to perfect, connecting on thirteen of his fifteen field goal attempts, and he hasn't missed since the Cardinals' third game of the season. Punter Todd Flannery is averaging 40.1 yards per punt and has placed seven of his 30 punts inside the opponent's 20 yard-line. However, he has had one of his kicks blocked and Virginia Tech's special teams' units have a history of blocking kicks.

The Hokies should feel pretty good about their place kicker as well. Brandon Pace has connected on 17 of his 20 field goal attempts and shows good range. Punter Nick Schmitt is averaging 42.3 yards per punt and he has placed fourteen of his 46 punts inside the opponents' 20 yard-line.

Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Louisville RB Michael Bush vs. Virginia Tech ILB Xavier Adibi
2. Virginia Tech QB Marcus Vick vs. Louisville MLB Nate Harris
3. Louisville WR Joshua Tinch vs. Virginia Tech CB Jimmy Williams

Scouts' Edge
While there is some concern that Virginia Tech will come out flat after losing to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, the chances are good that the Hokies win this game in convincing fashion. Their defense is the reason. With Cantwell making just his second start, the Hokies will be able to focus on slowing down Bush and should have success putting Louisville in pass-heavy situations consequently. When Cantwell does drop back to pass, Virginia Tech's aggressive defense will force him to make some bad decisions. The Cardinals have admittedly been tough against the run this year but the Hokies' depth at running back should wear the defense down over the course of the game. In addition, Vick will make some big plays with his feet as well as his arm.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Louisville 21
 
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