Duke-12? over UCLA Bruins: (4* selection)
This UCLA team has come a long way since they were 12-6 and had just lost at Cal by 29 points. The Bruins have won 11 of their last 13 games since that point and the hot streak has coincided with a more up tempo and pressing style of ball that fits their personnel better than the slower pace employed prior to that. But now UCLA has to face a Duke team that is better at the fast pace style than they are and the burning question becomes "do you press a pressing team?" We are almost always of the opinion in any sport that a team should play to their own strengths more than adjusting to that of their opponents unless absolutely forced to, but this may be a case where UCLA is in trouble facing a very similar styled team that has better talent. Of course this double digit point spread reflects that dilemma, and the Blue Devils are also expected to get C Boozer (14 ppg. and 6.5 rpg.) back for this game in Philly. This is #1 seed Duke?s 12th Sweet 16 in 16 years including 4 straight, and Coach K. now has a record of 52-14 in the NCAA Tourney. Super-quick Duke is shooting 40% from 3-point land on the season and has made 374 treys compared to 185 for their opponents. Sensational soph PG J.Williams (21 ppg. and 6.5 apg.) has 122 of those 3?s and even with all of the talent on both of these teams he stands out as the best player on the court. Of course all-around star F Battier of the Blue Devils is also one of the very best players in college hoops as well. This will be UCLA?s 4th Sweet 16 appearance in the last 5 years which makes it pretty amazing to think about much of the criticism that Steve Lavin has taken including earlier this year. But Lavin?s teams do have a history of imploding when they do go down, and it could happen here. UCLA C Gadzuric has had a big tourney so far with 13.5 rpg. and shooting 70% from the field, and the Bruins regularly get solid play from PG Watson (15 ppg. and 5.5 apg.) and SF Kapono (17 ppg., 5 treys vs. Utah St.). It is pretty amazing that UCLA has only given up 49 ppg. in their two tourney wins over Hofstra and Utah St., as during the regular season they had many defensive lapses giving up 76 ppg. We obviously expect a very fast paced game here, and we also expect high octane Duke (averages 91.5 ppg.) to get the best of it. This high point spread will limit us to a 2-unit play in this game, but we do still like Duke to win and cover in this scheduled 6:55pm start.
This UCLA team has come a long way since they were 12-6 and had just lost at Cal by 29 points. The Bruins have won 11 of their last 13 games since that point and the hot streak has coincided with a more up tempo and pressing style of ball that fits their personnel better than the slower pace employed prior to that. But now UCLA has to face a Duke team that is better at the fast pace style than they are and the burning question becomes "do you press a pressing team?" We are almost always of the opinion in any sport that a team should play to their own strengths more than adjusting to that of their opponents unless absolutely forced to, but this may be a case where UCLA is in trouble facing a very similar styled team that has better talent. Of course this double digit point spread reflects that dilemma, and the Blue Devils are also expected to get C Boozer (14 ppg. and 6.5 rpg.) back for this game in Philly. This is #1 seed Duke?s 12th Sweet 16 in 16 years including 4 straight, and Coach K. now has a record of 52-14 in the NCAA Tourney. Super-quick Duke is shooting 40% from 3-point land on the season and has made 374 treys compared to 185 for their opponents. Sensational soph PG J.Williams (21 ppg. and 6.5 apg.) has 122 of those 3?s and even with all of the talent on both of these teams he stands out as the best player on the court. Of course all-around star F Battier of the Blue Devils is also one of the very best players in college hoops as well. This will be UCLA?s 4th Sweet 16 appearance in the last 5 years which makes it pretty amazing to think about much of the criticism that Steve Lavin has taken including earlier this year. But Lavin?s teams do have a history of imploding when they do go down, and it could happen here. UCLA C Gadzuric has had a big tourney so far with 13.5 rpg. and shooting 70% from the field, and the Bruins regularly get solid play from PG Watson (15 ppg. and 5.5 apg.) and SF Kapono (17 ppg., 5 treys vs. Utah St.). It is pretty amazing that UCLA has only given up 49 ppg. in their two tourney wins over Hofstra and Utah St., as during the regular season they had many defensive lapses giving up 76 ppg. We obviously expect a very fast paced game here, and we also expect high octane Duke (averages 91.5 ppg.) to get the best of it. This high point spread will limit us to a 2-unit play in this game, but we do still like Duke to win and cover in this scheduled 6:55pm start.
