Maryland+4? over Duke: (4* selection)
This will be the 4th time that these teams have met this season and it has already produced dramatic games each time, especially Duke?s 84-82 victory in the semifinals of ACC Tourney 3 weeks ago. Now these rivals meet in the national semifinals and it certainly has potential to be another classic. 33-4 Duke has become a regular participant in the Final Four as they make their 9th appearance in this event in Coach K.?s tenure, while the Maryland program and coach Gary Williams are both here for the first time ever. But Duke will not have their usual intimidation factor working for them in this matchup as the 25-10 Terrapins played them as well as anyone all season in the 3 previous meetings, and Maryland is a resurgent team on a roll that truly believes they can beat the Blue Devils when it matters most. The crushing way that Maryland ended up losing the first meeting with Duke back on Jan.27th actually ended up being the key to their recent success that has seen the Terps go 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 outings. In that contest Maryland blew a 10-point lead at home in the final minute of regulation in an eventual 98-96 loss in OT. A major factor in that outcome was that Maryland PG Blake had fouled out with 2 minutes to go in regulation, and the loss sent the Terps into a tailspin that saw them go 2-4 SU in a 6-game stretch. That slump hit a low point when Maryland lost at home to Florida St. as a huge 21?-point favorite. But the 2nd meeting between these teams became the catalyst for Maryland?s resurgence as they went into Cameron Indoor and put a convincing 91-80 drilling on Duke as a 12-point underdog on Feb.27th, and the Terps have been playing as well as anyone in the nation since. The 3rd meeting in the ACC Tourney semis was then simply a classic game that Duke won 84-82 on Mar.10th on a late Nate James tip-in with Maryland OG Dixon missing a 35-footer at the final horn. In the 3 previous meetings the Terps have gone 3-0 ATS and the over is also 3-0 with an average combined score of 177 points. Maryland has outrebounded Duke by 11 per game and shot 49.5% FG in those meetings, while the Blue Devils have made 32 threes compared to 16 for the Terps. Another theme in this series has been that steady and underrated Maryland PG Blake has fared the best of anyone in the nation against sensational Duke PG J.Williams. While Williams has often looked about as unstoppable as a guard can in college ball and is averaging 28 ppg. in this tourney, he has struggled when facing Blake. Williams had 10 TO?s in the first Duke win and scored 8 of his points late in regulation after Blake had fouled out, and in the later 2 meetings Williams went only 12-36 from the field. Meanwhile Blake has dished out 10.3 apg. in the meetings with Duke. Of course the hottest Maryland player in this tourney has been C Baxter (23 ppg. and 11 rpg. in last 3 wins) who was very impressive against the solid front lines of both Stanford and Georgetown. But Baxter has not had huge outings against Duke this season scoring 7, 15, and 15 points in the 3 games. The biggest theme though in the previous meetings between these teams is that both squads have played well in all 3 games. Maryland comes into this game with a 5-2 ATS record on the season as an underdog, while Duke is 3-5 ATS on the year as a single digit favorite. Despite rolling into this Final Four, the Blue Devils are also only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games (2-2 ATS in tourney) with one of the covers being by a scant ?-point over UCLA in the Sweet 16. Of course the Duke program has also won 5 Final Four games in a row and the experience edge they have over Maryland is this setting cannot be taken lightly. Perimeter oriented Duke lives off of 3-pointers (1,003 attempts on season) as much as any team in the nation and has averaged going 11-30 from behind the arc in this tourney. That is well below their 39% average from 3-point land on the year, and they were below 35% in the Maryland games. Rebounding, quality depth, and interior defense can also be considered weaknesses for this Duke squad compared to past versions. Of course a Duke weakness is a relative term and Williams and senior F Battier are the best 1-2 punch in college basketball. Battier has put up at least 20 points and 10 boards in every game in this tourney, and the duo scored 58 of Duke's 76 points vs. UCLA. The pair also combined for 48 points against USC even though Trojans coach Bibby tried to tailor his defense to contain them specifically. One thing about Williams is that he is not a strong defensive player and Duke usually has him guard the opponents? shooting guard instead of the point guard. That could be a problem here as Terps OG Dixon is Maryland?s best player and one of the best off guards in the nation. But Maryland is still a very balanced team and they had 8 players play at least 14 minutes in their impressive win over a Stanford team that we viewed as the favorite to win this tourney. In particular F Holden has emerged as of late off the bench with 14 points vs. Stanford and 10 against Georgetown. Maryland seems to be playing the loosest of any of this year?s powerful Final Four teams, and that can be very dangerous for any of their opponents. It may seem like a very strange strategy, but against Duke it can be advantageous to make them take a lot of open shots inside the 3-point line instead of giving up the treys. That is especially true if Duke C Boozer (14 ppg. and 6.5 rpg.) is not back to full speed, and he hasn?t been yet in his 2 tourney games since returning from injury. All in all we think that this 4th meeting between these teams will be another great game. But we also like Maryland?s chances to win it quite a bit and given these lines we could easily see the Terps? side of the ledger coming in for the 4th time this season. We will backup that opinion by playing Maryland and the points for a strong 4-units in the later of Saturday's two Final Four matchups.
This will be the 4th time that these teams have met this season and it has already produced dramatic games each time, especially Duke?s 84-82 victory in the semifinals of ACC Tourney 3 weeks ago. Now these rivals meet in the national semifinals and it certainly has potential to be another classic. 33-4 Duke has become a regular participant in the Final Four as they make their 9th appearance in this event in Coach K.?s tenure, while the Maryland program and coach Gary Williams are both here for the first time ever. But Duke will not have their usual intimidation factor working for them in this matchup as the 25-10 Terrapins played them as well as anyone all season in the 3 previous meetings, and Maryland is a resurgent team on a roll that truly believes they can beat the Blue Devils when it matters most. The crushing way that Maryland ended up losing the first meeting with Duke back on Jan.27th actually ended up being the key to their recent success that has seen the Terps go 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 outings. In that contest Maryland blew a 10-point lead at home in the final minute of regulation in an eventual 98-96 loss in OT. A major factor in that outcome was that Maryland PG Blake had fouled out with 2 minutes to go in regulation, and the loss sent the Terps into a tailspin that saw them go 2-4 SU in a 6-game stretch. That slump hit a low point when Maryland lost at home to Florida St. as a huge 21?-point favorite. But the 2nd meeting between these teams became the catalyst for Maryland?s resurgence as they went into Cameron Indoor and put a convincing 91-80 drilling on Duke as a 12-point underdog on Feb.27th, and the Terps have been playing as well as anyone in the nation since. The 3rd meeting in the ACC Tourney semis was then simply a classic game that Duke won 84-82 on Mar.10th on a late Nate James tip-in with Maryland OG Dixon missing a 35-footer at the final horn. In the 3 previous meetings the Terps have gone 3-0 ATS and the over is also 3-0 with an average combined score of 177 points. Maryland has outrebounded Duke by 11 per game and shot 49.5% FG in those meetings, while the Blue Devils have made 32 threes compared to 16 for the Terps. Another theme in this series has been that steady and underrated Maryland PG Blake has fared the best of anyone in the nation against sensational Duke PG J.Williams. While Williams has often looked about as unstoppable as a guard can in college ball and is averaging 28 ppg. in this tourney, he has struggled when facing Blake. Williams had 10 TO?s in the first Duke win and scored 8 of his points late in regulation after Blake had fouled out, and in the later 2 meetings Williams went only 12-36 from the field. Meanwhile Blake has dished out 10.3 apg. in the meetings with Duke. Of course the hottest Maryland player in this tourney has been C Baxter (23 ppg. and 11 rpg. in last 3 wins) who was very impressive against the solid front lines of both Stanford and Georgetown. But Baxter has not had huge outings against Duke this season scoring 7, 15, and 15 points in the 3 games. The biggest theme though in the previous meetings between these teams is that both squads have played well in all 3 games. Maryland comes into this game with a 5-2 ATS record on the season as an underdog, while Duke is 3-5 ATS on the year as a single digit favorite. Despite rolling into this Final Four, the Blue Devils are also only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games (2-2 ATS in tourney) with one of the covers being by a scant ?-point over UCLA in the Sweet 16. Of course the Duke program has also won 5 Final Four games in a row and the experience edge they have over Maryland is this setting cannot be taken lightly. Perimeter oriented Duke lives off of 3-pointers (1,003 attempts on season) as much as any team in the nation and has averaged going 11-30 from behind the arc in this tourney. That is well below their 39% average from 3-point land on the year, and they were below 35% in the Maryland games. Rebounding, quality depth, and interior defense can also be considered weaknesses for this Duke squad compared to past versions. Of course a Duke weakness is a relative term and Williams and senior F Battier are the best 1-2 punch in college basketball. Battier has put up at least 20 points and 10 boards in every game in this tourney, and the duo scored 58 of Duke's 76 points vs. UCLA. The pair also combined for 48 points against USC even though Trojans coach Bibby tried to tailor his defense to contain them specifically. One thing about Williams is that he is not a strong defensive player and Duke usually has him guard the opponents? shooting guard instead of the point guard. That could be a problem here as Terps OG Dixon is Maryland?s best player and one of the best off guards in the nation. But Maryland is still a very balanced team and they had 8 players play at least 14 minutes in their impressive win over a Stanford team that we viewed as the favorite to win this tourney. In particular F Holden has emerged as of late off the bench with 14 points vs. Stanford and 10 against Georgetown. Maryland seems to be playing the loosest of any of this year?s powerful Final Four teams, and that can be very dangerous for any of their opponents. It may seem like a very strange strategy, but against Duke it can be advantageous to make them take a lot of open shots inside the 3-point line instead of giving up the treys. That is especially true if Duke C Boozer (14 ppg. and 6.5 rpg.) is not back to full speed, and he hasn?t been yet in his 2 tourney games since returning from injury. All in all we think that this 4th meeting between these teams will be another great game. But we also like Maryland?s chances to win it quite a bit and given these lines we could easily see the Terps? side of the ledger coming in for the 4th time this season. We will backup that opinion by playing Maryland and the points for a strong 4-units in the later of Saturday's two Final Four matchups.
