Georgetown : Pre-Game Report

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Despite its somewhat erratic first round efforts in recent years, the #2-seeded Georgetown Hoyas enter Friday's second round game as decided favorites over a Florida Gulf Coast team making its first ever visit to the post-season. The Eagles, an uptempo team, figure to provide an early test as to Georgetown's ability to adjust--and advance--across a number of styles present in the NCAA south region.

Much was made this week that Florida Gulf Coast upset ACC champion Miami at the beginning of the season. While the win looks bigger now than it did then, the style of play exhibited against Miami may hold some clues as to what the Hoyas can expect in this one.

In the 63-51 win, the Eagles thoroughly dominated Miami in the paint, with 40 points inside to the Hurricanes' 15, 22 points off Miami turnovers, and owning a 40-32 advantage on the boards. The results may well be different if the two teams met today, (Florida Gulf Coast won at home, where they were 15-1 versus a 7-9 road record), but these are the three key elements to a FGCU win: inside penetration, turnovers, and rebounds.

The matchups favor Georgetown's experience but the Eagles provide a tougher test in each case:

Markel Starks (GU) vs. Brett Comer (FGC).
Georgetown fans have come to realize that while Otto Porter leads the Hoyas, the team needs a solid game from Starks to prevail. Starks' foul trouble and absence down the stretch hurt GU in the Big East semifinal, and his on-court leadership in a game like this cannot be underestimated. Across the court, Florida Gulf Coast will start 6-3 Brett Comer, a playmaking guard who leads the team in assists (6.2/game) but also in turnovers (3.6/game). Comer is not efficient from three point range (27%, just 1-6 in the A-Sun tournament) and will look to get points driving inside, when he is not getting the ball inside. Starks must be alert to Comer's passing and look to pick up turnovers in transition.

Jabril Trawick (GU) vs. Bernard Thompson (FGC). Thompson enters the game as one of the Eagles' most reliable offensive options, averaging 47 percent from the field and 37 percent from three. Trawick's defense has been solid this season and he owns a height advantage on Thompson which will be in evidence should Thompson test the waters from outside. As with Starks, Trawick must avoid the cheap foul and force Thompson off the perimeter.

Otto Porter (GU) vs. Sherrard Brown (FGC) The Eagles need a big game from the 6-4 Brown, the team leader in scoring (16.1/game) and rebounding (7.3/game). It goes without saying Porter figures to be among the tougher defensive tests he's faced; when Brown matched up against Duke earlier in the year, he was held to 4 for 13 shooting. Porter's numbers were down in the Big East tournament but this may have been a function of familiarity with Cincinnati and Syracuse to the Georgetown setups--after what Porter did to Syracuse he as bottled up most of the game. A big game from porter will be big for Georgetown.

Nate Lubick (GU) vs. Chase Fieler (FGC). Fieler came up big in the A-Sun tournament and represents a wild card to a position that has hurt Georgetown in recent games. With 22 points and 3-3 from three in a hard fought win over north Florida, he provided the spark FGC needed, and this is the kind of "spark" teams need in NCAA play. For his part, Lubick must recommit to defense without cheap fouls, and to be more aggressive in asserting interior play on offense.

Mikael Hopkins (GU) vs. Eric McKnight (FGC) McKnight's number have tailed off this season and this offers an opportunity for Hopkins to continue the strong play he exhibited against Syracuse. The bulk of McKnight's points comes inside and Georgetown needs to keep him off the boards and repel close-in shots.

Georgetown bench vs. FGC bench. Neither bench figures to have a significant role but this may be a game well set for D'Vauntes Smith Rivera to assume a leadership role. DSR was contained by Syracuse in the semifinal but he may be better suited against a smaller FGC defense to rediscover the thee point shot. Look for Moses Ayegba to get extended time if Hopkins is unable to assert himself inside.

Some keys to the game:

Shake off The Rust: It's been a week since the Hoyas have played, but it's been two weeks since the Eagles won its tournament. An quick start by the Hoyas is vital to establishing tone and to limit the hopes of an early fast start by FGC that can carry them forward.
Assists and Turnovers: Florida Gulf Coast enters the game averaging 9 steals a game, and georgetown must be careful not to give up its possessions to an up-tempo team. For its part, FGC can turn the ball over as well, so ball control by both teams should be a stat to watch.
Early Foul Trouble: NCAA games are always called tighter than Big East games. GU must avoid filling up the foul ledger early and rely on high percentage shots to build a lead that can't easily be whittled away at the line.
Close the Door: The legacy of Georgetown's recent stumbles have been late first half and early second half lapses that do not give the Hoyas' fewer possessions per game a chance to assert itself late. This game could well be decided at the 10:00 mark of the second half--for good or for bad. Georgetown must play to get a lead and keep it out of reach, and avoid the threat of a comeback that #15 seeded teams can only dream of.

The 2012-13 Hoyas are capable of great things over the next few weeks. It must start, not end, here.
 
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