PREVIEW
They could still do it, right?
Two wins at home, still possible. A win at Marquette, it's been done before. A big upset at Villanova, and voila, they're back!
Yes, it's possible, and yes, Jeb Bush could win the Republican presidential nomination. But in both cases, the trends are fading with each passing battle, and for arguably the most under performing team in the last 50 years of Georgetown Basketball, the 2015-16 Hoyas seem to be barreling down a slippery slope unseen at the Hilltop since 1972.
This is not the 1998 Hoyas, replacing its top three starters and watching its most promising freshman catch a plane to Fresno State in mid-season, never to play college ball again. This is not the Craig Esherick 2004 team that featured just two top 100 recruits, neither ranked higher than 85th nationally. This is 2016, where at the outset CBS Sports ranked the Hoyas 17th. "D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera returning is enough to make Georgetown a top-20 team," it argued.
"A Big East title is not out of the question," said Yahoo Sports.
Even our friends at Casual Hoya suggested that "With Smith-Rivera's veteran hand on the rudder, Georgetown figures to be a top-15 team (perhaps even top-10) that has a realistic chance at the Big East title and the second weekend of the NCAA tournament."
Instead, the Hoyas approach its penultimate home game hoping just to stay above .500, with one win in the month of February and ranked in the top ten in only one category: personal fouls per game. That's not a statistic you want to do battle with against Xavier, which ranks 13th nationally in free throws and which, over the years, has become the program Georgetown used to be: blue-collar, defensive minded, a team that doesn't beat itself. Nine NCAA's in the last 10 years, five of those in the round of 16 or better. Georgetown's nine year absence from the second weekend of the NCAA's is the longest drought since 1979.
Xavier is 21-0 when leading at the half. Georgetown is 1-13 when trailing. That's a trend line that's hard to ignore.
The Musketeers are solid across its starting lineup. Guard Myles Davis is coming off a triple double (11 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists) against Providence and ranks among the top five in the conference in free throw accuracy. Trevon Bluiett has been outstanding all season, with double figures in 24 games (23 points vs. PC) and a healthy 6.6 rebounds per game. Center Jalen Reynolds is coming off a 10 point, 15 rebound effort against Providence in only 23 minutes of play, while freshman Edmond Sumner has entered the starting lineup with five straight double figure games. Xavier is clicking on all cylinders.
Xavier has been able to build on leads in recent games, with double digit wins in each of its last two games. Defensively, they are prone to teams taking over on rebounds, which allowed Creighton to pick up a rare win over X with 44 rebounds, taking advantage of XU's frigid 1 for 21 from three point range. That's the exception rather than the rule, however, and in its last two games the outside shooting is hovering at 37 percent. Xavier has been strong in points in the paint, often doubling its opponents in that category and daring them to win from outside. Even when a team gets hot from three point range (PC had 12 threes this week), it's not enough.
Georgetown's win over Xavier on Jan. 19 was confluence of three events not often seen at GU games this year: consistent outside shooting (40% from the field), a lead on rebounding (holding X to 35 rebounds), and a career game by Tre Campbell. By contrast, Campbell is a combined 1 for 15 from the field in the last five games and shooting just 15 percent (4-26) since that game. When D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera starts slow in games (a now regular occurrence), Georgetown can quickly get behind in games if there is not scoring help in the backcourt, and Campbell simply hasn't been a factor since that night at Cintas Center.
Freshman Jessie Govan had a solid game in the loss to Seton Hall but Reynolds will present a challenge early to avoid foul trouble. If Govan sits, the staff does not have the same confidence in Trey Mourning inside, which may force GU into some different defensive sets. If Govan and Mourning are both in foul trouble, Marcus Derrickson may be the best remaining option inside, and he may be too slow to be effective in that role.
KEYS TO THE GAME:
let's go with the keys from the Jan. 19 game. (They worked, didn't they?)
KEYS TO THE GAME:
Fight or Flight: The 2015-16 Hoyas are seen as a soft team inside. Can Govan and Mourning stay out of foul trouble long enough to make an impact?
El Cid: As D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera has gone, so go the Hoyas. DSR was a combined 8 for 20 in three games versus XU last season. and scored 20 on the Muskies last month.
Attack the Boards: Georgetown remains ninth in the league in rebounds, while Xavier is second. The Hoyas must control the boards to be in this game.
The Inside Game: 6-10 James Farr was held to six points as a starter against Georgetown on Jan. 19, with Jalen Reynolds expected to get the start. Can Jessie Govan be up to the challenge?
The pre-game polls are not encouraging, but Georgetown has shown they can beat Xavier this year and that alone may be the best hope that have to avoid posting a .500 record on Feb. 20th for the first time since the 1972-73 season.
--hoyasaxa
They could still do it, right?
Two wins at home, still possible. A win at Marquette, it's been done before. A big upset at Villanova, and voila, they're back!
Yes, it's possible, and yes, Jeb Bush could win the Republican presidential nomination. But in both cases, the trends are fading with each passing battle, and for arguably the most under performing team in the last 50 years of Georgetown Basketball, the 2015-16 Hoyas seem to be barreling down a slippery slope unseen at the Hilltop since 1972.
This is not the 1998 Hoyas, replacing its top three starters and watching its most promising freshman catch a plane to Fresno State in mid-season, never to play college ball again. This is not the Craig Esherick 2004 team that featured just two top 100 recruits, neither ranked higher than 85th nationally. This is 2016, where at the outset CBS Sports ranked the Hoyas 17th. "D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera returning is enough to make Georgetown a top-20 team," it argued.
"A Big East title is not out of the question," said Yahoo Sports.
Even our friends at Casual Hoya suggested that "With Smith-Rivera's veteran hand on the rudder, Georgetown figures to be a top-15 team (perhaps even top-10) that has a realistic chance at the Big East title and the second weekend of the NCAA tournament."
Instead, the Hoyas approach its penultimate home game hoping just to stay above .500, with one win in the month of February and ranked in the top ten in only one category: personal fouls per game. That's not a statistic you want to do battle with against Xavier, which ranks 13th nationally in free throws and which, over the years, has become the program Georgetown used to be: blue-collar, defensive minded, a team that doesn't beat itself. Nine NCAA's in the last 10 years, five of those in the round of 16 or better. Georgetown's nine year absence from the second weekend of the NCAA's is the longest drought since 1979.
Xavier is 21-0 when leading at the half. Georgetown is 1-13 when trailing. That's a trend line that's hard to ignore.
The Musketeers are solid across its starting lineup. Guard Myles Davis is coming off a triple double (11 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists) against Providence and ranks among the top five in the conference in free throw accuracy. Trevon Bluiett has been outstanding all season, with double figures in 24 games (23 points vs. PC) and a healthy 6.6 rebounds per game. Center Jalen Reynolds is coming off a 10 point, 15 rebound effort against Providence in only 23 minutes of play, while freshman Edmond Sumner has entered the starting lineup with five straight double figure games. Xavier is clicking on all cylinders.
Xavier has been able to build on leads in recent games, with double digit wins in each of its last two games. Defensively, they are prone to teams taking over on rebounds, which allowed Creighton to pick up a rare win over X with 44 rebounds, taking advantage of XU's frigid 1 for 21 from three point range. That's the exception rather than the rule, however, and in its last two games the outside shooting is hovering at 37 percent. Xavier has been strong in points in the paint, often doubling its opponents in that category and daring them to win from outside. Even when a team gets hot from three point range (PC had 12 threes this week), it's not enough.
Georgetown's win over Xavier on Jan. 19 was confluence of three events not often seen at GU games this year: consistent outside shooting (40% from the field), a lead on rebounding (holding X to 35 rebounds), and a career game by Tre Campbell. By contrast, Campbell is a combined 1 for 15 from the field in the last five games and shooting just 15 percent (4-26) since that game. When D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera starts slow in games (a now regular occurrence), Georgetown can quickly get behind in games if there is not scoring help in the backcourt, and Campbell simply hasn't been a factor since that night at Cintas Center.
Freshman Jessie Govan had a solid game in the loss to Seton Hall but Reynolds will present a challenge early to avoid foul trouble. If Govan sits, the staff does not have the same confidence in Trey Mourning inside, which may force GU into some different defensive sets. If Govan and Mourning are both in foul trouble, Marcus Derrickson may be the best remaining option inside, and he may be too slow to be effective in that role.
KEYS TO THE GAME:
let's go with the keys from the Jan. 19 game. (They worked, didn't they?)
KEYS TO THE GAME:
Fight or Flight: The 2015-16 Hoyas are seen as a soft team inside. Can Govan and Mourning stay out of foul trouble long enough to make an impact?
El Cid: As D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera has gone, so go the Hoyas. DSR was a combined 8 for 20 in three games versus XU last season. and scored 20 on the Muskies last month.
Attack the Boards: Georgetown remains ninth in the league in rebounds, while Xavier is second. The Hoyas must control the boards to be in this game.
The Inside Game: 6-10 James Farr was held to six points as a starter against Georgetown on Jan. 19, with Jalen Reynolds expected to get the start. Can Jessie Govan be up to the challenge?
The pre-game polls are not encouraging, but Georgetown has shown they can beat Xavier this year and that alone may be the best hope that have to avoid posting a .500 record on Feb. 20th for the first time since the 1972-73 season.
--hoyasaxa
