http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/9/6/1672230/for-your-consideration-ole-miss
Expect to hear it several times over the next few days as we work our way to the highest-profile intraconference battle of the weekend: The team that wins the Georgia-South Carolina showdown this weekend is bound to have a successful season, and the loser will end up with seven or eight wins and a lower-tier bowl.
As with most statements of its kind, there are plenty of examples of how this is true, but the true story is actually a little bit more complicated.
First of all, many of the wins simply confirm what you would think at the end of the season: The better team won the September game. This was a surprise in 2000, when a Gamecocks squad that had gone 0-11 the year before picked off "Heisman contender" Quincy Carter five times (no, it never gets old saying that, thanks for asking). After the bowl season, South Carolina would be 8-4. Then again, so was Georgia. And while the Gamecocks were ranked higher than the Dawgs in the AP poll, Georgia had the higher ranking in the coaches poll. The Gamecocks were obviously more pleased with their appearance in the Outback Bowl than were Georgia fans with the Oahu Bowl; Jim Donnan was fired after the season.
In 2001, South Carolina won again en route to a 9-3 season; Georgia would go 8-4 in Mark Richt's first year. South Carolina would end the year ranked No. 13 in both polls while the Dawgs were No. 22 in the AP and unranked in the coaches' survey.
From 2002-06, during the height of the Mark Richt Era, Georgia won five straight and was almost certainly the better team every year. (It was the Dawgs' longest winning streak in the series since they won 10 in a row from 1966-77.) As usual, the games were almost always close, but it's hard to find someone who wouldn't agree that the better team won each season.
The last three years have been odd. In 2007, South Carolina won the game 16-12 as part of a 6-1 record to begin the season that placed the Gamecocks in the Top 10. South Carolina then lost the next five games to end the year with a 6-6 record, out of the polls and the postseason. Georgia ended up 11-2, ranked No. 2 in the AP poll and started the next season as a national championship contender.
The Dawgs won the next year's game, 14-7, but didn't ever claim the national title many fans were expecting. The 10-3 record and No. 13 ranking were better than the unranked 7-6 season for South Carolina, but both fan bases seemed disappointed.
Georgia also won last year's 41-37 shootout, but arguably had a worse season at 8-5 than South Carolina did at 7-6, if fan reaction is an accurate gauge. (Neither team was ranked by the AP or the coaches.)
The game will likely be close -- seven of the last nine contests have been decided by a touchdown or less, and one of the others was an 18-0 Georgia win in which neither team looked very good. But don't think that the outcome here, while important, tells us who will be a true contender in the East and who will be headed to Birmingham in December. The truth is always a bit more interesting than that.
Expect to hear it several times over the next few days as we work our way to the highest-profile intraconference battle of the weekend: The team that wins the Georgia-South Carolina showdown this weekend is bound to have a successful season, and the loser will end up with seven or eight wins and a lower-tier bowl.
As with most statements of its kind, there are plenty of examples of how this is true, but the true story is actually a little bit more complicated.
First of all, many of the wins simply confirm what you would think at the end of the season: The better team won the September game. This was a surprise in 2000, when a Gamecocks squad that had gone 0-11 the year before picked off "Heisman contender" Quincy Carter five times (no, it never gets old saying that, thanks for asking). After the bowl season, South Carolina would be 8-4. Then again, so was Georgia. And while the Gamecocks were ranked higher than the Dawgs in the AP poll, Georgia had the higher ranking in the coaches poll. The Gamecocks were obviously more pleased with their appearance in the Outback Bowl than were Georgia fans with the Oahu Bowl; Jim Donnan was fired after the season.
In 2001, South Carolina won again en route to a 9-3 season; Georgia would go 8-4 in Mark Richt's first year. South Carolina would end the year ranked No. 13 in both polls while the Dawgs were No. 22 in the AP and unranked in the coaches' survey.
From 2002-06, during the height of the Mark Richt Era, Georgia won five straight and was almost certainly the better team every year. (It was the Dawgs' longest winning streak in the series since they won 10 in a row from 1966-77.) As usual, the games were almost always close, but it's hard to find someone who wouldn't agree that the better team won each season.
The last three years have been odd. In 2007, South Carolina won the game 16-12 as part of a 6-1 record to begin the season that placed the Gamecocks in the Top 10. South Carolina then lost the next five games to end the year with a 6-6 record, out of the polls and the postseason. Georgia ended up 11-2, ranked No. 2 in the AP poll and started the next season as a national championship contender.
The Dawgs won the next year's game, 14-7, but didn't ever claim the national title many fans were expecting. The 10-3 record and No. 13 ranking were better than the unranked 7-6 season for South Carolina, but both fan bases seemed disappointed.
Georgia also won last year's 41-37 shootout, but arguably had a worse season at 8-5 than South Carolina did at 7-6, if fan reaction is an accurate gauge. (Neither team was ranked by the AP or the coaches.)
The game will likely be close -- seven of the last nine contests have been decided by a touchdown or less, and one of the others was an 18-0 Georgia win in which neither team looked very good. But don't think that the outcome here, while important, tells us who will be a true contender in the East and who will be headed to Birmingham in December. The truth is always a bit more interesting than that.
