Gm.........

[Rick]

GM, sorry didn't see your question from 9-1 until now when I was updating my record here.

Actually most of my games you see will be 5-10-15 unit plays. I just post what I am personally playing. If I don't like the games, I will just play possibly 2-4-6 units maybe a 1 unit here or there but thats basically an opinion play. Sometimes I just get a nice feel for the board so I step out a bit. Its not a loss of discipline trust me, as honestly even a 30 unit play is only about 2% of my bankroll. I normally play only 1% or lower of my bankroll on large plays and even a lower % normally.

To answer your question I played the following card on ....
8-10
Giants 5 units
Carolina 10 units
Houston 15 units
Philadelphia 20 units
Cleveland 20 Units
Seattle 20 units
Denver 25 units
KC 25 units
Tennessee 30 units

Went 7-1-1 and thats what basically made my preseason. I really try to keep updated my records so people can honestly see how I'm doing. I am not calling those that don't keep records dishonest its just something I have always done from the old aol boards. I am also monitored now at the National Sports Monitor where I am ranked 3rd in the overall out of 143 services. # 3 in Baseball. #1 in College Football (yes, its early), #4 in Pro's and #1 in CFB and pros combined. KC Wolf is also out of the box well there and in the top 5 or 6 also. I play here at bestbettor and you can check my records there 15th overall out of about 560 and 6th in Bases this year. I also participate at the UHC where I am # 9 right now in Bases after finishing #13 last year. Finished 10th in Pro Football last year. Not a service, I dont need to be nor do I want to be. I don't have the time even if I wanted to. I post as often as I can but you will never see a writeup. I believe a case if you look hard enough can always be made for either side in a game and I don't want to take anyone off one of their plays because of something I say. Also because I tend to lose focus when I do a writeup. I like to keep an open mind always.
Updated records here just so I keep track are...

Final PreSeason record..
14-8-1 +123.5 units

Pros 1-1 +4.0 units

College 8-5 +19.8 units

I am firm believer in the use of unit plays. Its the way I adjust my units that has built my bankroll over the years. Note the NSM though is based only on 1 unit plays. Also I love the phrase at the bottom of your threads it makes perfect sense for the question you asked. Good Luck

 

[GM]

Hi,

Took me a while to figure out what question it was you were referring to.

First off, don't get the impression I am disputing your pick record. I don't have any reason to doubt it. It was the units that had me confused.

14-8-1, and up 123.5 units doesn't make sense, because a standard bet is 1 unit. That's why units are used, so that everyone regardless of the actual typical $-amount they normally wager can relate to how strong you rate a play. I can see cases where someone might feel very strongly and bet 2 or 3 times their normal amount (though I never do it and don't believe in it).

But to be up 126 units and only be 6 games over .500 means you either had to have had a bet for 100x your standard bet at some point (insane), or else you bet in the range of 20 units per game on average. In which case your unit count is not correct. If a unit is $5, and you make 20 unit bets as the norm, then really your unit should be $100. When are you ever going to place a 1 unit play? A $5 bet is pointless when you usually bet $100 a game.

I could say I'm 12-10 and up 10,000 units and it would be meaningless because I'm not stating my units in a way which is consistent with everyone else.

Now that you've broken it down I understand how you could get a count like +123.5. But I would say about 20 of your units is really 1 REAL standard unit as the rest of the world counts it.

Giants 0.25 unit
Carolina 0.5 unit
Houston .75 unit
Philadelphia 1 unit
Cleveland 1 Unit
Seattle 1 unit
Denver 1.25 units
KC 1.25 units
Tennessee 1.5 units

That to me makes a lot more sense! (Though I can't see why you even bother varying your bet size that much. Your Giants bet is practically worthless at that size, as your Tennessee bet has 6 times the weight of it!).

So to sum it up...you say:
14-8-1 +123.5 units

I say dividing that by 20 makes it more realistic....
14-8-1 +6.175 units

Again....I am NOT knocking your picks or your honesty!

 

[Rick]

Excellent points and I never took anything you said as a knock. I have been doing this a long time and I can see all your points. For me 1 unit = $100. Always has been always will. I use to be a 1,2,3 unit player. Then a 1-5 unit player. Last year I my biggest play was a 20 unit play. Actually this year I have had some 50 unit bets but never (at least not yet) have I ever posted a 50 unit play. All I can say is this is a system that works for me. If someone makes money playing all their units equally then that system works for them. Actually like I said in the NSM all plays are only 1 unit plays and I am doing well playing those 1 unit at a time. Just think of what happens to your bankroll if you are good also at rating the games and adjusting units.

Addressing the point of if you are playing games anywhere from 1-30 units, then why even make a 1 unit play because what significance does that play to a 30 unit play. Well first off, I have had only 1 - 30 unit play this year and a handful 20 and over. I am not sure but I would say I have hit 5 out of those 6 plays. (OK so I was using Antonio Alfonseca"s hand). But the significance of the 1 unit play is because of the style that I use in playing. I do not consider myself a good handicapper. I consider myself though a very smart player. I don't use trends, or cap these games, the way I establish my plays is by developing a feel for the games. Its hard to explain but I take in a whole bunch of info when deciding my plays. I know who the good players are on. I know who the bad players are on. I know which of my books are the smart ones. I have several locals I use along with offshores. I play the numbers especially in Baseball. But basically I go with what my gut tells me. Doesn't matter if every good handicapper I know is on one team if my gut says to go the other way I do without hesitation. I actually had the stones to go opposite Jack last week on a Baseball game. Not the one I posted but another one and I actually won. (I consider MadJack one of the best Baseball handicappers I have seen). But my feeling is developed by playing a lot of games.

I am one of those not good with numbers so I am not sure what I would rate a $3000 (other than 30 units) play vs what I would rate a $100 play (other than 1 unit). Very simply I post what I actually play. Why would I do anything but that. Great points.

Also thats why I am monitored at various places. I play by whatever rules are presented and I usually hold my own.

 

[GM]

OK, cool, glad we understand what each other is saying and this isn't going to become an arugment.

You also make a number of good points.

Re: Handicapping style - I agree with nearly everything you say here. I DO handicap the actual games, but I do a lot more. There are so many approaches I take to a game, and in the end it still often just comes down to a feel.

I started off years ago doing just statistical and mathematical analysis of games, comparing rushing yards and PPG and that sort of thing. That tells part of the story, but I don't think I could consistently win doing ONLY that. It's a good starting point each week for me though; it gets my brain moving and gives me some rough ideas.

I use a lot of situational analysis. Look-ahead's and overlooks, and looking for teams to revert to the norm. A big uncharateristic win is usually followed by a dud game, and getting slaughtered by an inferior foe is often followed by a strong bounce-back effort. In both cases you usually get lines shaded in favor of the bounce-back, which helps.

Not big on revenge, I think it's a phony angle most times, mis-stated and misused/overused. I consider historical trends very, very lightly....and nothing more than about 3 years back. Anything prior to that is meaningless IMO, too much personnel has changed to make it mean anything. I do however believe more in systems plays.

From there, I take a sampling as you do of the good and not-so-good players, and get a read for how each is thinking. Then I take a look at the lines and line movement. And like you, I have books I respect greatly, and books I have almost no respect for as far as how they set their lines (but they're great to play at!). Combining these factors, you can determine which side of the game is the sharp side.

The last part is "feel". If it doesn't feel right, I don't do it.

This is pretty much the process I went thru yesterday on the NYG game. In the back of my mind I knew NYG was the right play. On paper it looked awful and logic said don't do it. But the more I read into the betting patterns, and what side the sharp books DIDN'T want more action on....well....it finally pushed me into betting NYG. So my initial instinct was correct I guess.

Also a very firm believer in keeping every bet, whether I love it or just like it a little, at the same bet size. Lots of times the one I love loses and the ones I like a bit win. Nothing worse than going 5-2 for the day but losing $$ because my whole day in essence was riding on the 2 that didn't come thru.

Ok, that was a novel. LOL

See you,
Greg