Gm

[JEFF]

Greg-

Got a ? for ya ... since I know you like to keep sharp records on spreads, faves, dogs, etc. Here's what I'm wondering -- what is the ATS this year on teams that open as exactly -2.5 faves, and also as exactly -3.5?

Just looking at a theory. Only if you have time, of course, and no rush at all.

 

[GM]

Hey Jeff,

If you've got about 15 minutes I can give you an answer. That's the sort of thing I have to manually add up.

However...I can't guarantee that my opening lines are accurate. I record (whenever I can) the first line I can find at Olympic, around 8:30pm each Sunday night. Sometimes I can't be here to do it though, and the lines do move early, so my lines might not be fully correct. And of course some games don't get a line til sometime on Monday or even Tuesday (or later if there's an injury). But you should get something of an approximation. Back in 15.

 

[JEFF]

Cool, thanks Greg.

 

[GM]

...and while I'm gone...would I be correct in assuming your theory is that the books are trying to get you to bet the -2?'s and +3?'s?

 

[deano]

you boys up late........ got to love it!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[JEFF]

Damn, I'm like an open book, eh


That's exactly what I'm looking at.Been thinking about it for a long time, just never had the time/records to investigate.

 

[GM]

Ok, this is interesting. Keep in mind:

* Very small sample size, so the results here may not be that meaningful,
* My lines may not be exactly correct, so I may have excluded games that should be in here, or vice versa, and
* I don't have the mid-week line movement (ie. if a game opened at -3?, went up to -4?, then down to -3, I have it only noted as "downward movement").

With both the 2?'s and 3?'s the majority of the games actually closed further away from the 3, not on the 3. That surprised me a lot; I was expecting most would stop on 3. Bettors seem to be drawn away from the "3" side, or are resisting the urge for whatever reason to bet that side most of the time. I really can't explain this.

The -2?'s
Favorites that have opened at -2? have gone 4-6-1 ATS.
Of the 3 winners, 1 line moved up (towards 3), 3 moved down.
In one case (Tampa Bay vs Atlanta, Week 5), but Bucs opened at -2? and closed at +1?. Line moved the wrong way, Bucs covered.
Of the 6 losers, 2 moved up, 4 moved down.
One game pushed after moving up to 3.
Every line moved at least a half point in one direction or the other, according to my records.

The -3?'s
Favorites that have opened at -3? have gone 4-10 ATS.
Of the 4 winners, 2 went up (away from 3), 2 went down.
Of the 10 losers, 3 went up, 2 went down, and 5 didn't move.
So the hook side has been doing really well.

Lots of theories out there that the books are trying to sucker you into the wrong side by taking the hook. These numbers don't seem to support that, but I don't know how scientific it is.

Big advantage to dogs on both numbers, which I also wasn't expecting.

 

[JEFF]

That is surprising. There goes my theory -- I had an inkling +2.5 dogs would have done much better than that. Also surprised the +3.5 faves have done so poorly --> I guess The Man isn't toying with us as much as we think.

Would love to see the #s for this for the past decade, although with the offshores, the internet and bettors becoming more educated (i.e., thaking the 3.5 and giving the 2.5), they may not be as relovant as one might think.

Interesting. Thanks Greg.

P.S. Really like the SKins/NYG under this weekend.

 

[GM]

No problem. Like I said, take it with a grain of salt. Advantage dogs in both categories. Don't know why I said I was surprised at that...dogs always seem to cover at a higher rate, except when the line is less than 3. So only really the first one surprised me. 4-10 on -3? really doesn't shock me at all.

I don't usually compare things on such exact lines. I have stats broken into closing spread ranges (such as 3? to 6?) going back 6? years. I break them into ranges like this because they're large enough to have some meaning, and cut off at key numbers. Over the years they've come up with some very consistent results.

Dogs of 3? to 6? have ALWAYS outcovered favs, year in and year out no matter what else happened in the other categories. Not by a huge margin (about 56%). But there are so many of these games every year, 56% is good enough to be quite profitable.

This year though the really hot category has been dogs of 7? to 9?. Also dogs of exactly 7. In other words....bet dogs! LOL