Matchups that I really like:
K-State -28 at Baylor
Baylor is simply horrible. Their 3 wins this season came against Samford, Tulsa (arguably the worst team in CFB) and Kansas (giving Tulsa a run for their money). In their last two games, they have been outscored by their oppinents by the score of 75-0. Last week's opponent, Colorado, put up 34 in the first half alone. They called off the dogs at half and the 2nd teamers took over from there. On the other hand, K-State is coming off a close loss to Texas and is looking to take their aggression out on someone, ala Baylor. After losing to Colorado earlier in the year, they promptly smothered Oklahoma St. 44-9. Bill Snyder has no problem putting up points against lesser teams. Take their first 3 games for example. They plowed W. Kentucky, LA Monroe and E. Illinois by the scores of 48-3, 68-0, and 63-13 respectively. Each of those teams would compete nicely with Baylor. Also, K-State is 2-0 ATS with Baylor since the formation of the Big XII. Other notables... Since 1992, K-State is 16-7 ATS coming off a loss to a conference foe...In the last 3 years, Baylor is 5-14 against conference opponents...In the past 3 years, Baylor is 6-16 as an underdog...K-State has won the past two meetings by the scores of 49-6 and 48-7.
Air Force -16 at Wyoming
Despite losing to Notre Dame last week, Air Force still has the top rushing offense in the nation and are averaging a whopping 305 yards of rushing per game. I see this as a 'take it out on Wyoming after a disappointing loss' game for Air Force. Remember, last week's loss was their first and only loss ATS of the season. Wyoming, on the other hand, is a miserable 1-6 this year, 1-4-1 ATS. Their sole win was a wire-to-wire 34-30 victory at home against The Citadel. They are coming off of a 4 point loss to San Diego St. Now if they can't manage a win at home versus San Diego St., I find it hard to believe that they can reasonably hang with a strong Air Force team. Other notables...Air Force is 4-1 ATS in games played at Wyoming since 1992...In the last 3 years, Air Force is 11-6 ATS against conference foes...In the last 3 years, Wyoming is 9-13 ATS as an underdog.
Boise St. -14 at San Jose St.
Why do I like this game so much? Two words: Boise St. These guys have simply been unstoppable as of late. An early blowout loss to Arkansas seemed to have lit a candle under this team's ass. Since that game, they have won every game straight up and ATS. And I'm not talking about close games of any sort. Their closest game was a 35-13 pounding of Wyoming, a difference of 23 points. Since then, this team has won games by 25, 27, 28 and 46 points. I don't see anything stopping them from repeating these performances this week. San Jose St. looked like a respectable team early on. But they've lost their last two games by a combined score of 102-31. Boise St. may not have the advantage of their blue turf this week, but I don't think that will matter. San Jose St. has looked like a team who's drained. I don't want to say they've given up, but they're down. Boise St. will take advantage of this and will have their way with them. Other notables...In the last 3 years, Boise St. is 17-6 as a favorite...In the last 3 years, Boise St. is 13-3 ATS against conference opponents....Last year, Boise St. romped San Jose St. 56-6
And finally, just for you buddy, I'm going to take a shot at handicapping the LSU-Auburn game
LSU -3 at Auburn
I'm taking LSU on this one. To put it simple, they are rolling. After a season opening loss to Virginia Tech, LSU has won their last 6 games. Not to mention, they've won their last 5 ATS. They thumped S. Carolina last week 38-14, despite losing their starting QB to foot problems. The key for this game is LSU to use their running game to wear down Auburn. I see this happening. LSU averages 217 YPG in rushing and averags 5 YPC. Auburn's defense is less that stellar, giving up an average of 161 YPG, an average of 4.3 YPC. Now Auburn doesn't have a bad running game themselves, but LSU's run defense is much better, giving up 95 YPG on average. Auburn is coming off two disappointing losses to Arkansas (in which they were favored by 6) and a below average Florida team. Other notables...Since 1992, LSU is 4-1 ATS against Auburn on the road...LSU defeated Auburn last year 27-14...In the past 3 years, LSU is 11-8 ATS against conference foes...Auburn is 5-7 ATS against a team with a winning record
Again, these are just my anylasis on these games. Of all the games listed, these are the only games I have put money on so far. This does look like a tough week to handicap all of these road dogs. And I agree, there is a lot to be learned from other handicappers and I am anxious to see if you guys agree/disagree with what I've preached. Right now my eyes are tired so I'm not even going to touch on which road dogs I don't think will cover. Maybe I'll save that for later in the week. Anyways, let me know what you think. I'm always up for an intelligent discussion, although that may be an oxymoron when talking to me.
