pretty good article. I think nows the time to fade Los Padres...
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Are the Giants' Bats Awake Enough?
6/4/2002 7:38:00 AM By Tom Alexander
SAN FRANCISCO - Last year, Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants offense both had incredible years.
Other players in the offense, like Rich Aurilia, put up monster numbers, as Bonds plowed his way toward a home run record.
But that was then. This year, the Giants have not been playing well.
"The Giants have been in funk all year," said Eugene Michaels of Global Sports Picks. "But they busted out for 20 runs in the last two games. This team has underachieved and is ready to go on a roll."
On the flip side, Michaels says, the Padres are heading for more disaster. "The Padres have lost like five in a row," he said, " and with Nevin on the DL they really have no deep threats."
Michaels says that -150 is a reasonable price for the Giants. "It's not intolerable tonight, all things considered," Michaels said, "especially since Reuter is working on a career year."
Indeed, Kirk Reuter has been nothing short of fantastic this season, going 6-3 with an ERA of 2.88. He's posting a WHIP of just over 1.10 on the season as well. Reuter has been even more deadly, going 4-1 on the road with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.000. The Giants have played well while Reuter has pitched on the road, and they are up 2.9 units in those four starts.
His opponent, Bobby Jones, a "finesse pitcher coming back from injury," as Michaels says, has an ERA of over 5.00. "In his last three starts," Michaels adds, "He has allowed 25 men on base in 13 2/3 innings. He'll need at least a couple of more starts to find his groove."
Jones has been much better at home, for his part, going 2-1 with an ERA of 3.60 and a respectable WHIP of 1.280. However, he's still managed to feed the gopher quite a bit, allowing six home runs in the course of his four starts. This bodes for trouble against a team that has some significant power in its lineup.
"The Giants should win handily," Michaels said. Handily enough to give 1.5 and get the better line? "No!" Michaels responded.
"I am not a big proponenet of laying -1.5," he said. "If you check the stats over the last three years, NO MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM shows a profit against a line of -1.5. Not even Seattle or the Yankees."
"I give -1.5 maybe five times a year, if that many," Michaels said. "And I bet that of the five times a year that I do, it's ALWAYS against the Devil Rays."
Others agree with Michaels. "I'll only [lay 1.5] in the American League, and mostly with road teams," said Big D of WiseGuySports. "Those are the highest winning percentage categories."
D points to a statistic that shows the National League plays many more one-run games than the American League does, pointing out that the NL is leading the AL by over 100 at this point in the year. However, he also points out that road teams are more prone to covering the run-line, which would bode well for ambitious Giants bettors tonight.
Tonight in San Diego, the Giants will hope that their bats stay hot. The thinking is that their bats are hot enough to lead them to victory, although the margin is in question. Needless to say, if Bobby Jones gives Barry Bonds a nice pitch to hit, 1.5 runs may start to seem pretty small.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Are the Giants' Bats Awake Enough?
6/4/2002 7:38:00 AM By Tom Alexander
SAN FRANCISCO - Last year, Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants offense both had incredible years.
Other players in the offense, like Rich Aurilia, put up monster numbers, as Bonds plowed his way toward a home run record.
But that was then. This year, the Giants have not been playing well.
"The Giants have been in funk all year," said Eugene Michaels of Global Sports Picks. "But they busted out for 20 runs in the last two games. This team has underachieved and is ready to go on a roll."
On the flip side, Michaels says, the Padres are heading for more disaster. "The Padres have lost like five in a row," he said, " and with Nevin on the DL they really have no deep threats."
Michaels says that -150 is a reasonable price for the Giants. "It's not intolerable tonight, all things considered," Michaels said, "especially since Reuter is working on a career year."
Indeed, Kirk Reuter has been nothing short of fantastic this season, going 6-3 with an ERA of 2.88. He's posting a WHIP of just over 1.10 on the season as well. Reuter has been even more deadly, going 4-1 on the road with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.000. The Giants have played well while Reuter has pitched on the road, and they are up 2.9 units in those four starts.
His opponent, Bobby Jones, a "finesse pitcher coming back from injury," as Michaels says, has an ERA of over 5.00. "In his last three starts," Michaels adds, "He has allowed 25 men on base in 13 2/3 innings. He'll need at least a couple of more starts to find his groove."
Jones has been much better at home, for his part, going 2-1 with an ERA of 3.60 and a respectable WHIP of 1.280. However, he's still managed to feed the gopher quite a bit, allowing six home runs in the course of his four starts. This bodes for trouble against a team that has some significant power in its lineup.
"The Giants should win handily," Michaels said. Handily enough to give 1.5 and get the better line? "No!" Michaels responded.
"I am not a big proponenet of laying -1.5," he said. "If you check the stats over the last three years, NO MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM shows a profit against a line of -1.5. Not even Seattle or the Yankees."
"I give -1.5 maybe five times a year, if that many," Michaels said. "And I bet that of the five times a year that I do, it's ALWAYS against the Devil Rays."
Others agree with Michaels. "I'll only [lay 1.5] in the American League, and mostly with road teams," said Big D of WiseGuySports. "Those are the highest winning percentage categories."
D points to a statistic that shows the National League plays many more one-run games than the American League does, pointing out that the NL is leading the AL by over 100 at this point in the year. However, he also points out that road teams are more prone to covering the run-line, which would bode well for ambitious Giants bettors tonight.
Tonight in San Diego, the Giants will hope that their bats stay hot. The thinking is that their bats are hot enough to lead them to victory, although the margin is in question. Needless to say, if Bobby Jones gives Barry Bonds a nice pitch to hit, 1.5 runs may start to seem pretty small.
