Handicapping Baseball II

[Ave Atlantica]

ndnfan, thanks for all your great insight into capping bases. The information you provided was great. The past several weeks I have been trying to gather information on how best to cap baseball. I have received a number of suggested "situations" and "rules" that cappers like to follow. They include:

1. Bet on heavy home favorites who have lost the first game of a series.

2. Bet the home dog in the last game of a series in which they have lost all the previous games (they are about to be swept).

3. Bet big favorites on the run line.

4. Do not wager more than -130, -140, -150.

5. Play small home dogs.

6. Bet hot rookies/new pitchers early (look to jump on rookie or unknown pitchers when they are underdogs).

7. Bet the under at Pac Bell.

8. Check the weather report at Wrigley Field.

9. Bet overs on teams with poor bullpens.

10. Bet totals 'OVER' when you find two bullpens with team
ERA's over 5.00...

11. Bet the 'UNDER' when you find a starting pitcher that is capable of throwing a shutout in your estimation..

12. Bet certain pitchers after their team losses the previous game.

13. Bet teams after certain events (were they shutout in previous game; did they score a lot of runs in previous game, etc.), what additional events could you include here?

14. Bet on any team on a 3 game winning streak or against any team on a 3 game losing streak, unless it is a losing streak home team in the last game of a home series.

15. Take the 1.50+ favorites on the schedule and Parlay them into 3 team parlays. For example, if you have 5 teams over 1.50 take the 3 highest lines and parlay them into a 3 teamer, and put the two lowest ones into a two teamer.

Does anyone follow or agree/disagree with any of these "situations" and "rules"?

Are their any additional "situations" or "rules" that you like to look for and follow?

Thanks,

Ave

 

[ndnfan]

Ave....I don't think it would be a good idea to blindly follow a lot of the situations you list.

I agree, many of the situations you list should be figured in to a degree when capping out the game, but also, they should not be your only deciding factor.

May get to more at a later time, but the one that I will comment on for now is #3. "Bet big favorites on the runline"

Personally, I'd be a little weary of this one. If you only knew how many times a heavy favorite only wins by 1 run, it might surprise you. For some reason, it seems like a mediocre pitcher will get into a very good 'groove' when matched up with an ace in which case you'll see a very close ball game. One reason for this is usually the game starts moving along quickly and both pitchers seem to settle down rather quickly and both pitchers get into that good groove so to say.

I will say this for runline betting: If you're are playing a favorite on the runline, you might wanna play only road fav's on the runline as this way you guarantee at least 9 innings worth of at-bats rather than getting into the situation where the home team is up by 2 runs going to the ninth and something stupid like a fielders indifference gets a meaningless baserunner into scoring position....it's just something that is way too common which is one reason to NEVER play a favorite on the Ruline when that team is playing at home. More times than not you'll get hurt doing this.

-ndnfan

 

[Big Daddy]

How true about the home fav on the run line. It took me a while to get it thru my thick head, but eventually I learned. In your opinion, is there ever a good situation where you would play the dog +1.5 run line, or is it best to leave it alone?

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Do not wager more than -130, -140, -150.

that's ONE rule i put into play last year that did me WELL.

that's how i was up +30 units last season.

"laying off the high chalk will set you free...."

works well in hockey too.

 

[ndnfan]

In your opinion, is there ever a good situation where you would play the dog +1.5 run line, or is it best to leave it alone?

Big Daddy....I can't really give you a good answer to this mainly because I've never played enough dog runlines over the last several years to be able to accurately answer the question, but from the one's I've played over the last several years, I can say for a fact that I would have been a lot better off just playing the dog on the moneyline rather than taking the +1.5 runs.

One situation that you might wanna take a look at the +1.5 runs is when the game is predicted to be rather low scoring.....The harder runs are to come by, the more valuable the +1.5 becomes.

GL

 

[ndnfan]

Here's a few more of my views on some of the situations you listed:

2. Bet the home dog in the last game of a series in which they have lost all the previous games (they are about to be swept).

Interesting situation and one that I've been working on some this off season. Definately does have some value..can't argue with that. Being swept doesn't happen all that often and many times you'll see a key starter or two in the lineup get rested if the team has taken the first 2 or 3 games of the series.

3. Bet big favorites on the run line.
4. Do not wager more than -130, -140, -150
5. Play small home dogs

Pretty much agree with Toronto Vigilante on #4. Basically, all three of these will more than likely keep you out of trouble or at least not put you in a situation where you begin to rapidly free fall if a little slump hits. Still, I'd recommend limiting the amount of your bets on big fav's, even when they're played on the runline.

6. Bet hot rookies/new pitchers early (look to jump on rookie or unknown pitchers when they are underdogs).

If a pitcher's just been called up or promoted, it's always a good idea to take a look at his minor league numbers. Sometimes pitchers that don't belong in the majors are called up just for the simple reason that they have to fill a spot due to a pitcher going on the DL or a similiar situation. If the pitcher's been pitching well, even if he's not a rookie, usually an advantage will go to the pitcher especially if the team he is facing has not yet faced him. Of course, if that same pitcher is facing the same team especially within 5 to 7 days of his previous start vs them, you might wanna take that into consideration. Many times the opposite occurs. If hitters struggled vs a particular pitcher, many times they'll be able to adjust rather quickly especially if they just faced him a few days ago.....thus not a good situation for the starter many times.

8. Check the weather report at Wrigley Field.

Isn't that the truth. Wind is usually either blowing strong in or strong out.....most books don't post totals on Wrigley games till the day of the game and usually it's just a few hours before gametime.

GL

-ndnfan

 

[goldcupsports]

Ndnfan,

Could you get my email from jack and email me... Thanks.

 

[Lucena]

please email me as well.


Thanks,

Lucena