Handicapping College Hoops

[Ave Atlantica]

What is the best criteria, statistics, situations to use when capping college basketball?

Any insight or information to help me select winners would be appreciated.

 

[loophole]

preferably in twenty words or less.










all kidding aside, if there was an easy answer to that one, everyone would quit their day job. handicapping any sport is a constantly evolving battle of wits with the linesmaker to take advantage of a newly discovered edge until the inevitable adjustment is made. if you ever read the old mad magazine comic strip "spy vs spy" then you kinda know what i mean. to some, the attraction of the hobby is that an ultimate solution to the equation is never really attainable.

on the other hand . . . maybe it's just the action.


good luck in your quest.

 

[bryanz]

no easy answer for your question. watch as many games as you can and limit your plays to the teams that you follow.I know this sounds simplistic,but it's a key for me.I like to look at match-ups when there is recent history & break it down man by man.I can spend 2 hours on 1 game.It's a combination of many things.

 

[Ave Atlantica]

Loophole and bryanz thank you for your responses. What I am looking for is a good place to start the capping process. I am trying to find out some of the main ingredients that everyone likes to use when they cap a game.

For example, I cap a lot of college football and I realize that their are hundreds of variables involved in the process, but some of the ones I like to start with are (stats) YPP, offensive & defenisve effeciency, turnovers, etc and (situations) home dogs, bad defenses on the road, revenge, etc.

What statistics, situations or other elements can/should be used when capping college basketball?

 

[IE]

i always try and read as much of the local papers of teams to start my morning off or overnight...

later today i will add some media sites to the madjacksports cbb handicapping guide that might help...

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/handicappers.php?c=20

 

[DrTrivia]

There are almost 3x's as many lined college games b-ball vs. f-ball. That alot times plays into our favor vs. the books. Line adjustments are made by the public, and it is, for the most part, in the higher profile or major conference match-ups. Starting out, getting your feet wet, so to speak, my advice would be to concentrate on the smaller conferences (ie. Missouri Valley, MAC, West Coast,Metro,Colonial, and there are others.) Alot of times you will find the point values in these games.

In the overall handicapping part...me personally...as the season progresses (there's almost 100 days of b-ball up to the NCAA and NIT's)... size match-ups, style match-ups (half court offenses vs up tempo) defensive style match-ups (zone vs man)... and I do follow trends in match-ups (scoring and ATS).

So, as I conclude my lecture :142lmao: I'll give you the same advice I was...read, don't be afraid to ask questions on certain games, and develop a consistent criteria of handicapping games (I assume that is what you've done with f-ball). Same holds true in b-ball...just a whole lot more to choose from.

And most of all...you have come to the right place. For in these threads you will find the most knowledgeable "public" handicappers anywhere. Many of them, if not all, I have the utmost respect for their knowledge and abilities to 'cap games.

GL :toast:
____________________

Doc

 

[bryanz]

your question has made me think and I like it. just for en example: looking @ butler and ohio tonight, some of the things I have considered. butler won last yr @ home 64-63. butler has won 4 of 10 on the road (SU) -vs- all...... 1 of 4 on the road (SU) vs all.butler has won 8 of 10(SU) -vs- all home & away & 15 of 20(SU) -vs- all home and away.when you look at butlers road or neutral court record it's not as bad as it appears because they lost( 3 )games to ill chi( 1 )to det and( 1) to wright st + tough non con....ohio coach O'shea is 26-28 in league play (SU) & ohio has won 3 of 7-vs- all home and away and 8 of 20 -vs all home and away.I made a special note that butler does not lose to teams with losing records and ohio has won ,when they do win feeding of the bottom.I look at last yrs game and stephens and harris are gone for ohio, they add green . lightfoot, monseryz are gone for butler,they add graves and polk.I look at the match -up man for man ,size ,production,experience.....there is a perception that butler is down based on last year. that is were the value is.ohio was 7-11 in con & 10 -20 /butler was 8-8in con & 16-14.ohio lost (2) starting guards & it looks like butler wins in the add more than you lost department.why is the line so small? butler is on the road , road record doesn't look that great until you look at who they played & and if butler was a 5 pt fav. all the money would be on them and the books would lose.The line is wrong.thats what we are looking for ;a line that we think is wrong.BUTLER IS A HIGH % PLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOTE : think 8-8 in the horizon beats 7-11 in the mac east.

 

[Bill]

Braynz offered great info and you will find that kind of work takes a lot of time. Another assist is to identify which cappers on this board specialize in particular conferences and consider their selection. A big mistake is to try to cover the field. Select a few teams and get to know their players well then it becomes easier to gauge them against competition because you only have to dig for info on only the competition. If you like action select a couple of teams from 3 difference confernces accross the country as they concentrate their play on different days.

Best to you.

Bill

 

[Clem D]

Get The Blue Ribbon College Basketball yearbook.. I think it is a must for anyone capping college hoops.

 

[BuffaloBill]

A few tips that I use.

I like to focus on the games on ESPN. The kids all know they are on national TV, so usually they will both be ready to go.

Also, I try to only take home teams. In this sport this usually prevails. If I like the road team in the game, then I just skip it.

I try to take home underdogs as well. This works in any sport, but especially in college hoops.

I don't spread myself too thin either. I know a lot of guys like to pick a lot of games and put a little on each one. I prefer to just take a few games per week, and hammer them. This is really the only way to make money in this stuff. Very few can hit 60% to 65% over a period of time, and if you are one of the few who can do this, you need to be putting a lot of money on each game in order to make anything.

I also try to take top 25 teams coming off of a poor performance. Especially if they just got blown out and now they are coming home for their next game. Usually, they will take it out on their next opponent.

If I think of anything else I will let you know.

Overall, you have to start following the sport on your own and figure out what works best for you. The above that I mentioned works best for me, but you might find other things that work for you. Good luck.

 

[Bill]

Hope you get will list your favorite doge that you think will win outright in the Saturday Dogs That Bark thread contest for Saturday's games.

GL
Bill

 

[loophole]

compelled to offer that i strongly disagree about focusing on televised games. while i'm not saying you can never find a legitimate reason to play such a game, generallly the lines on tv games are much tighter. tv games generate a much bigger handle than non-tv games because of the public interest, and large handles draw much more scrutiny from the linesmakers - they have to because of the exposure. my experience tells me it's easier to find value in the smaller conference, less noticed games than the espn game of the week.

 

[Ave Atlantica]

Thanks for all the thoughts and ideas. Are their any statistics or trends that seem to standout as being helpful?

What are some of the most important statistics in basketball to concentrate on?