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lostinamerica

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Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 18-15 (+1.35*)
NFL YTD: 19-13 (+6.60*)
Top plays
(included above) 5-1 (+5.70*)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR6U5Bt3zog


Arkansas State(+2) over Louisiana-Monroe (1.5*) **Top Play**
- - While the home team is getting high-fived around campus ( http://www.thenewsstar.com/section/ULM ), what looks to me as the better team is rested off three straight losses to tough opponents, with a desperate opportunity in the conference and national spotlight. Of course some sharps are seeing things differently in what might be the third largest line movement in a week with no shortage of early line movement.


Iowa State(-3)(-105) over Baylor (1.5*) **Top Play**
- - HC Rhoads fitting in as well as expected, and should have his charges on task for a chilly homecoming evening. "Each week they're doing more to win games . . . (But they) still haven't gotten over the hump (although their three wins are one more than all of last season)," first-year head coach Paul Rhoads said Saturday . . . "We've got a good football team," Rhoads insisted. "Half our season's over, but there's more opportunities out there. We feel good about our growth." . . . ISU certainly has deficiencies ( http://wcfcourier.com/sports/college/isu/article_fd05faea-b491-11de-9277-001cc4c03286.html ) but I don't see Baylor sans QB Griffin as the team to take them to task in space, and keep all their ATS streaks alive in conference/road/dog/grass/off a loss/ situations. (In my research, I really enjoyed the reader comments after this article: http://www.wacotrib.com/baylor/content/sports/college/2009/10/04/10042009wacbears.html ) (More: http://www.wacotrib.com/baylor/content/sports/baylor/baylor-football-archive.html )


And seems like the right time to trot out this old post of mine . . .

lostinamerica said:
I'll open the 2006 season by quoting my post to open the 2004 and 2005 season; I could embellish or revise it, but I like letting it stand exactly as it was when I whipped it up in 2004, "30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface":

"Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!"

GL

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Don't believe everything you think.

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Click to expand...

GL
 
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