- - Last week there were a handful of NCAA games that jumped off the page for me, and what was striking from the first moment was that almost all of them were home favorites. I ended up playing 7 out of 8 of them, and 4 (including my only Top Play) were easy winners, 2 were OT ATS losers (but could have been covers), and only 1 never had much of a chance (although it was an outright winner) . . . And I made a good choice with the 1 I left off my card, which was Northwestern over Indiana.
- - My one regret from Saturday (of last week) was not acting when I debated and debated about hedging out of Michigan(+4') with Penn State(-3)(-130). My one regret from (Sunday) was not acting when I debated and debated about hedging out of Chicago(+1) with Cincinnati(+1')(-120).
- - This week there were also a handful of NCAA games that jumped off the page for me, and what was striking from the first moment was that almost all of them are road favorites . . . I strongly suspect that just like last week, I won't make any big strides with the balance of my card after any Top Plays, but I need to trust my stuff and keep pulling the trigger whenever I've done my homework.
Nebraska(-13) over Baylor (1.5*) ** Top Play **
- - The last two weeks have established for me that Baylor is no Iowa State. I say Iowa State is glad Nebraska is not paying a visit to Ames this weekend . . . The last two weeks, Nebraska has lost the turnover battle 0-10. If Nebraska under HC Pelini has his team believing and doing the right things to get out of a funk like that (and it often times only takes one play), and that stat does some flipping this weekend, I think the scoreboard will reflect it. (Of course some say "you can't handicap that shit", turnovers (or penalties), whether it be an opinion that the 0-10 trend gets pushed forward by a feisty Baylor squad, or maybe gets turned the other direction by a focused Nebraska squad . . . Me, I don't see how you cap a game without looking at INFORMATION and ANGLES that give you a feel on "more likely than not" scenarios for the turnovers/penalties/mindset/poor coaching/etc., even if it is to conclude that you don't think it should be a big factor in a particular game. Of course you can be wrong, just like any other aspect of your capping.)
GL
